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电力系统可靠性评估中的改进拉丁超立方抽样方法
作者:
作者单位:

1.智能电网教育部重点实验室,天津大学,天津市300072;2.同济大学电子与信息工程学院,上海市201804

摘要:

将拉丁超立方抽样方法与重要抽样方法相结合,提出了一种应用于电力系统可靠性评估的改进拉丁超立方抽样方法。该方法首先通过重要抽样改变原系统样本空间的概率分布,然后对新概率分布进行拉丁超立方抽样,降低了抽样方差,避免了系统正常状态的大量重复抽样。应用该方法对IEEE-RTS系统与IEEE-RTS修改系统进行可靠性评估,并与常规非序贯蒙特卡洛抽样方法和传统拉丁超立方抽样方法的结果进行了比较。比较结果验证了所提出的方法在保证一定计算精度的条件下,可降低抽样方差,提高抽样效率,并且可适用于高可靠性的系统可靠性评估。

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基金项目:

国家国际科技合作与交流专项资助项目(2013DFA11040)

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作者简介:


Improved Latin Hypercube Sampling Method for Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Key Laboratory of Power System Simulation and Control of Ministry of Education,Tianjin University, Tianjin300072,China; 2.College of Electronics and Information Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai201804,China

Abstract:

An improved Latin hypercube sampling method for power system reliability evaluation is proposed by combining Latin hypercube sampling method with the importance sampling method.In this method,the probabilistic distribution of current sample space of the system is changed by the importance sampling method,and then samples follow the new probability distribution are generated by Latin hypercube sampling.Thus the sampling variance is reduced and massive repeated samples in normal system state are avoided.The proposed method is applied to the reliability evaluation of the power generation section in an IEEE-RTS and modified IEEE-RTS test system.Comparison with the conventional non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation algorithm and the Latin hypercube sampling method shows that the sampling variance is reduced and the sampling efficiency improved with the proposed method with definite calculating accuracy guaranteed,which is suitable for the reliability evaluation of high reliability systems.

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引用本文
[1]张巍峰,车延博,刘阳升.电力系统可靠性评估中的改进拉丁超立方抽样方法[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(4):52-57. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20140220002.
ZHANG Weifeng, CHE Yanbo, LIU Yangsheng. Improved Latin Hypercube Sampling Method for Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2015, 39(4):52-57. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20140220002.
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  • 收稿日期:2014-02-20
  • 最后修改日期:2014-09-27
  • 录用日期:2014-08-03
  • 在线发布日期: 2014-09-22
  • 出版日期: