| 计及风/光/荷不确定性的综合能源站随机规划研究 |
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| 引用本文：朱刘柱1,尹晨旭1,王宝1,张理1,刘丽1,叶钰童1,戴巍2.计及风/光/荷不确定性的综合能源站随机规划研究[J].电网与清洁能源,2021,37(5):96~105 |
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| 基金项目:国网安徽省电力有限公司科技项目（52120919000D）；国家自然科学基金区域创新发展联合基金（U19A20106） |
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| 中文摘要:传统变电站灵活性较差，可再生能源消纳能力有限，导致弃风弃光现象严重。在此背景下，提出了一种计及风/光/荷不确定性的综合能源站随机规划方法。首先，将综合能源制氢站的规划总周期划分为若干个子周期；然后，在各个子周期内采用蒙特卡罗法对风、光年利用小时数模型和电、氢负荷分布模型进行模拟，以设备全寿命周期成本最小为目标，建立包括电解水装置和储能设备在内的随机规划模型，并通过非线性规划求解器求解。最后，通过算例分析，可验证文章所提周期性随机规划方法在提升综合能源站经济效益、可再生能源利用率和供能可靠性等方面的有效性。 |
| 中文关键词:风光制氢 不确定性 综合能源站 随机规划 全寿命周期成本 |
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| Stochastic Programming of Integrated Energy Station Considering the Uncertainties of Wind Power， Photovoltaic and Load |
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| Abstract:Due to the poor flexibility of the traditional substation and the limited capacity of renewable energy consumption， the phenomenon of wind and light abandonment is serious. In this context， a stochastic programming method for integrated energy hydrogen production station is proposed， which takes into account the uncertainty of WT， PV and load. First， the total planning period of the integrated energy hydrogen station is divided into several sub cycles； second， in each sub cycle， Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the annual utilization hours model of wind and light and the load distribution model of electricity and hydrogen. Aiming at the minimum life cycle cost of the equipment， a stochastic planning model including electrolytic water device and energy storage equipment is established， and it is solved by nonlinear programming solver. Finally， an example is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method in improving the economic benefits， renewable energy utilization and energy supply reliability of the comprehensive energy station. |
| keywords:hydrogen production by wind power and photovoltaic uncertainties integrated energy station stochastic programming life cycle cost |
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