| 张超,胡志根,刘全.上游水电站控泄条件下施工导流风险分析[J].水利学报,2012,43(11): |
| 上游水电站控泄条件下施工导流风险分析 |
| Risk analysis for construction diversion with discharge control of the upstream hydropower stations |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 施工导流 风险分析 控泄 Copula函数 Copula-Monte Carlo方法 |
| 英文关键词: construction diversion risk analysis discharge control discharge control Copula function Copula-Monte Carlo method |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 水电站防洪度汛运行必须满足一定要求的控泄规则。综合考虑上游水电站控泄条件下施工导流系统整体所面临主要水文、水力不确定性因素，构建了施工导流风险分析模型。考虑上游水电站断面与区间施工洪水洪峰间的相关性，利用Copula 函数构造洪水洪峰的联合分布，并给出各区施工洪水过程的Copula-Monte Carlo 模拟方法，进而针对上游水电站控泄规则对天然洪水过程的动态影响，建立下游导流系统施工洪水计算模型，从而给出风险模型求解的随机模拟方法。工程实例分析表明，风险模型及方法是有效的、适用的，并对各风险要素参数进行了敏感性分析，为上游水电站控泄条件下的施工导流标准选取及方案优化提供了依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Hydropower station must meet certain discharge control rules to control flood. On the basis of analyzing the main hydrological and hydraulic uncertainty factors of construction diversion system with discharge control of the upstream hydropower station， the risk analysis model for construction diversion has been established. Considering the correlation of upriver hydropower station construction flood peak with interval-basin flood peak， the Copula function was used to establish the joint distribution of two flood peaks，and Copula-Monte Carlo method was applied to simulate construction flood process of two regions. Then，aiming at dynamic influence on natural flood process by the discharge control rule of upstream hydropower station， the calculation method of downstream diversion system construction flood was given， thus the construction diversion risk calculation methods of using stochastic simulation was put forward. Finally，an engineering case was analyzed. The results show that the risk model and its analytical method are effective and reliable. The sensitivity analysis of risk factors is performed， providing important basis for the construction diversion standard adoption and the optimization of construction diversion scheme with discharge control of the upstream hydropower stations. |
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