山区是河川径流主产区, 系统掌握山区降水的时空分可为水循环系统的精准解析和水资源开发利用策略的科学拟定提供重要的基础支撑。针对山区观测数据匮乏的情况, 使用地理加权回归法和多元线性回归法, 建立了黔桂喀斯特山地 TRMM 卫星降水产品的降尺度校正模型, 分析了降尺度校正结果的精度及其在不同高程区间的效果,总结了山地降水的时空分布规律。研究结果表明: ( 1) 地理加权回归法的校正精度优于多元线性回归, 在 A= 01 01的显著性水平下, 地理加权回归法在高海拔地区的表现更好; ( 2) 研究区多年平均降水量呈现南高北低、东高西低的特征, 年内分配不均, 夏季( 6 月- 8 月) 降水量为 741 mm, 占全年的 52% ; ( 3) 地形变化和研究区降水的空间分布有密切联系, 低海拔区域高程对降水的影响较大, 高海拔区域坡度对降水的影响较大。

Mountainous area is the main producing area of river runoff. Systematically grasping the spatial and temporal distribution patter n of precipitation in mountainous area can provide important basic support for precise analysis of water circulation system and scientific formulation of water resources development and utilization strategy. Aimingt he lack of observation data in mountainous ar eas, this study developed a downscaling correction model for TRMM satellite precipitation data product in Guizhou and Guang xi karst mountainous region by using geographic weighted reg ression method and multiple linear regr ession met hod. The accuracy of dow nscaling correction results and their effects at different elevation intervals were analyzed, and summarized the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in the mountains. The results showed that : ( 1) the correction accuracy of the geographic weighted regression method was better than the multiple linear regr essionmethod, and the geographic weighted regr essionmethod performed better in the high altitude area at a significance level of A= 01 01; ( 2) the annual average precipitation in the study area showed high in the south, low in the north, high in the East and low in the west, characteristics and the annual distribution was uneven. Summer ( June2 August) precipitation was 74018 mm, accounting for 52% of the whole year ; ( 3) the spatial distribution of precipitation in the study area was closely related to the to pography. The elevation of lo w2altitude areas had a greater impact on precipitation, and the slope of high-altitude areas had a greater impact on precipitation.

国家重点研发计划( 2017YFC0405803; 2016YFC0401301) ; 国家重点基础研究发展计划( 2015C B452701)