风电场短期功率预测水平提升举措措施研究与实例分析 |
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引用本文:柳玉,白恺,崔正湃,孙荣富,吴宇辉,宋鹏,吕游.风电场短期功率预测水平提升举措措施研究与实例分析[J].电网与清洁能源,2015,31(12):77~82 |
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基金项目:2015年国家电网公司科技项目“基于集群划分的新能源功率预测技术研究和示范”。国家重点基础研究发展规划基金(“973项目”)(2012CB215203) |
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中文摘要:风力发电作为一种随机性、波动性、反调节性的新能源电源形式,随着其电网渗透率逐年攀升,给电网安全调度运行带来了安全隐患,尤其电网峰谷时段的调峰工作受到了安全性和经济性的双重压力。以提升风电场功率预测准确率、降低电网安全运行风险为出发点,综合分析了影响短期功率预测水平的技术因素和非技术管理因素,提出了预测水平提升的关键举措措施,并以实际工作案例为样本,验证了预测水平提升关键举措措施的有效性和实用性。 |
中文关键词:风电功率预测 测风塔数据 集合预报 模型修正 |
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Study and Case Analysis of Optimization Measures of Short-Term Wind Power Forecast |
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Abstract:Wind power is a form of new energy charac-teristic of random fluctuation and anti-regulation and its grow-ing penetration in the power grid imposes growing impacts on the security dispatching of the power grid, especially in the peak and valley hours. Starting from improving the prediction accuracy and reducing the risks for the power grid operation, this paper comprehensively analyzes the technical factors and non-technical factors that affect the short-term power predic-tion, and proposes key measures to raise the prediction level. The actual work cases for the sample verify that the key meas-ures proposed are effective and practical. |
keywords:wind power prediction mast data ensemble forecasting model updating |
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