| 基于灰色系统的福建省货运综合
运输体系分析与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄,虹.基于灰色系统的福建省货运综合
运输体系分析与预测[J].延边大学理工学报,2019,0(4):322-328. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄 虹 |
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| 作者单位： | ( 福建船政交通职业学院, 福建 福州 350000 ) |
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| 摘 要： | 以福建省2011—2018年的货运数据为基础,利用灰色预测法分别对公路、铁路、水路、航空4种运输方式建立了货运量及货物周转量的预测模型,并采用相对误差、均方差比值及小误差频率对模型进行了精度检验.检验结果表明,该模型的精度较高,可应用于货运指标的预测.利用该模型对福建省未来11年4种运输方式的货运量及货物周转量进行预测显示:公路、水路和航空运输的货运量及货物周转量均维持良好的增长态势,而铁路运输处于降低趋势; 未来11年,福建省的运输方式仍以公路运输和水路运输为主,航空运输和铁路运输为辅.
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| 关 键 词： | 货物运输 综合运输体系 灰色预测 |
Analysis and prediction of freightage comprehensive transportation system in Fujian province based on gray system |
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| HUANG Hong.Analysis and prediction of freightage comprehensive transportation system in Fujian province based on gray system[J].Journal of Yanbian University (Natural Science),2019,0(4):322-328. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Hong |
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| Affiliation: | ( Fujian Chuanzheng Communications College, Fuzhou 350000, China ) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the freight data from 2011 to 2018, the prediction model of freight and turnover volumes of the four transportation modes was established by gray prediction method. The average relative error, the posterior error ratio and the frequency of small error were used to test the accuracy of the model, and the results showed that the precision of the prediction model reached a high level to predict freight indexes. Finally, the freight and turnover volumes of the four transportation modes within the next 11 years in Fujian province were obtained by this model, and the results show that freight and turnover volumes of the highway, water and air transportation is a growing trend while the railway transportation is on the decline. And the transportation modes of Fujian province will be mainly based on highway and water transportation, while partially based on air and railway transportation in the next 11 years. |
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| Keywords: | freightage comprehensive transportation system gray prediction |
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