| 利用水位变化的黑龙江开河方式和开河日期预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 路锦枝,王涛,郭新蕾,邹德昊.利用水位变化的黑龙江开河方式和开河日期预报[J].水利水运工程学报,2020,0(3):29-36. |
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| 作者姓名： | 路锦枝 王涛 郭新蕾 邹德昊 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验,北京 100038;黑龙江大学,黑龙江哈尔滨 150080 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目（2018YFC1508402）；公益性行业科研专项（201501025）；中国水科院科研专项（HY0145B642017） |
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| 摘 要： | 天然河道发生武开河时容易产生冰塞冰坝，造成凌汛灾害。在分析破冰水位和实测日水位的基础上，提前准确预报开河方式和开河日期并及时采取相应防范技术，是防凌减灾的一项重要非工程措施。基于冰盖挠度破坏原理，在利用水位变化判断开河模式的研究基础上将一维冰厚模型的度日法进行优化，计算河道冰厚变化，预报2015—2018年黑龙江开河方式及开河日期。结果表明:开河日期预报除2017年预报值和实测值误差1天，其余年份均完全相同；开河方式预报除因2018年开河水位过低导致水动力不足影响到预报的准确度外，其余年份预报值和实测值相同。
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| 关 键 词： | 冰盖挠度 开河方式 开河日期 度日法 武开河 黑龙江 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-03-18 |
Prediction of Heilong River ice break-up mode and date based on water level change |
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| Affiliation: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China2.Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, China |
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| Abstract: | When violent break-up occurs in a natural river course, it is easy to produce ice jam and ice dam to cause the flood disaster. Based on the analysis of the ice-breaking water level and the measured daily water level, it is an important non-engineering measure to forecast the river opening mode and opening date in advance and adopt the corresponding prevention technology in time. In this study, based on the theory of ice sheet deflection damage, the water level change is used to judge the river opening pattern, the degree-day method of the one-dimensional ice thickness model is optimized, the change of ice thickness in the river channel is calculated, and the river opening mode and date of Heilong River in 2015-2018 is forecasted. The results show that except for the error of one day between the predicted value and the measured value in 2017, the predicted value and the measured value in the other years are identical for the ice break-up date, except that the insufficient hydrodynamics caused by the low water level in 2018, which affects the accuracy of the prediction, the predicted value and the measured value in the other years are identical for the ice break-up mode. |
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