| 城市燃气管网三维度抗震韧性定量评估方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 宗成才,冀昆,温瑞智,毕熙荣,张晓瑞.城市燃气管网三维度抗震韧性定量评估方法[J].工程力学,2021,38(2):146-156. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宗成才 冀昆 温瑞智 毕熙荣 张晓瑞 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国地震局工程力学研究所，黑龙江，哈尔滨 150080 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地震局工程力学研究所所长基金项目(2019B09);国家自然科学基金项目(51908518,51778589);重点研发项目省级资金项目(GX18C011);山东省高校土木结构防灾减灾协同创新中心基金项目(XTZ201901)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了量化评估城市燃气管网系统的抗震韧性，并充分考虑地震动输入，管网连通性能评估，以及修复过程三个方面的不确定性，该文提出了技术维度、组织维度、社会维度下的燃气管网抗震韧性定量评估流程。衔接地震动预测方程(GMPE)输入，基于蒙特卡罗模拟对燃气管网连通性进行计算。通过随机模拟修复资源分配求得燃气管网在每次模拟破坏工况下的实时修复进程。给出三维度下的性能恢复曲线，并计算对应的震后性能、修复速率和恢复力等指标。重复该步骤N次，即可依据N个计算结果作为样本进行上述指标的期望估计，以及计算各个性能水平恢复时间的概率分布。基于上述流程以我国华北某城市燃气管网作为实例进行抗震韧性定量评估，结果表明:该算例燃气管网三维度下的震后残余性能大致服从正态分布，组织维度与社会维度达到震前75%、90%、100%性能水平的恢复时间大致服从对数正态分布。技术维度计算结果不考虑管网连通性，所得到的恢复曲线接近线性，可能低估了实际的管网性能降低水平；而考虑了管网连通性的组织与社会维度计算结果更符合客观实际，恢复曲线受修复顺序和资源分配影响较大。该研究所建议的城市燃气管网抗震韧性定量评估流程综合考虑震后各环节不确定性，可为燃气管网震后韧性概率评估提供参考，同时也可将该评估流程推广至其他生命线网络系统中。
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| 关 键 词： | 抗震韧性 燃气管网 韧性量化指标 性能恢复曲线 不确定性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-04-09 |
THREE-DIMENSIONAL SEISMIC RESILIENCE QUANTIFICATION FRAMEWORK FOR THE URBAN GAS NETWORK |
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| ZONG Cheng-cai,JI Kun,WEN Rui-zhi,BI Xi-rong,ZHANG Xiao-rui.THREE-DIMENSIONAL SEISMIC RESILIENCE QUANTIFICATION FRAMEWORK FOR THE URBAN GAS NETWORK[J].Engineering Mechanics,2021,38(2):146-156. |
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| Authors: | ZONG Cheng-cai JI Kun WEN Rui-zhi BI Xi-rong ZHANG Xiao-rui |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150080, China2.Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration , China Earthquake Administration, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150080, China3.Beijing Gas and Heating Engineering Design Institute Co., Ltd, Beijing 100032, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to comprehensively evaluate the seismic resilience of the urban gas network,this paper proposes a quantitative assessment framework in three dimensions:technical,organizational and social dimensions,which accounts for the uncertainties in ground motion input and includes network connectivity performance assessment and repair process.The connectivity of the gas network is calculated based on Monte Carlo simulation which uses the ground motion prediction equation(GMPE)as input.Then the real-time repair process of the gas network is obtained by randomly allocating the repair resource under each simulated damage condition.The performance recovery curve in three dimensions is given,and the corresponding indices such as post-earthquake performance,repair rate and resilience are calculated.Repeating the above steps N times,the expectation of the above indicators and the probability distribution of the recovery time for different performance levels are obtained.Taking a northern city of China as an example,the whole procedure is applied to assess the seismic resilience of a gas network system.The results show that the post-earthquake performance of the gas network in three dimensions roughly follows the normal distribution,and the performance recovery time for 75%,90%,and 100%original performance levels in organizational and social dimensions roughly follows log-normal distribution.Neglecting the connectivity of the pipe network,the resilience results in technical dimension underestimate the actual damage level,and the recovery curve is close to linear-type.On the other hand,the results in organizational and social dimensions are close to the reality,and are greatly affected by repair order and resource allocation.The proposed seismic resilience quantification procedure comprehensively considers the uncertainty of various aspects after the earthquake,which can provide a reference framework for probabilistic resilience assessment of gas networks,and could be expanded to other lifeline network systems. |
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| Keywords: | seismic resilience gas network quantitative index of resilience performance recovery curve uncertainty |
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