| 南方电网风电功率预测系统应用扩展研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈东,雷金勇. 南方电网风电功率预测系统应用扩展研究[J]. 南方能源建设, 2015, 2(3): 28-33. DOI: 10.16516/j.gedi.issn2095-8676.2015.03.005 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈东 雷金勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.广东电网电力调度控制中心，广州 510600 |
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| 摘 要： | 相比北方大型风电大多建于较为平坦内陆区域，南方电网区域内很多风电场则建设在相对复杂的地形环境，其中较有代表性的是高山、丘陵和海岸风电场，给风电功率预测系统的运行提出较大挑战。风电功率预测系统应用扩展性研究目的是使预测系统能在复杂而多变的实际现场应用场景下保持一定精度水平，满足系统用户需求。研究了南方电网区域内典型风资源特性和风电出力特性，根据这些特性，围绕当前预测系统功能流程中的三个主要技术环节——多输入数据源、功率预测建模和预测结果展现，提出应用扩展性研究框架。该项工作可以用于在数值天气预报精度有限的条件下改善预测精度，并且指导预测系统各技术环节中子技术选项的灵活组合方案，提高预测系统在工程现场的应用价值。基于南方电网区域内某风电场历史数据，论证了所提方法的有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 风电功率预测 应用扩展 预测精度 南方电网 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-06-01 |
Research on the Flexible Performance of Wind Power Forecast System in China Southern Power Grid |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Guangdong Power Dispatch Center, Guangzhou 510600, China2.Electric Power Research Institute Co., Ltd., China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510080, China |
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| Abstract: | Compared with the large wind farms in the north which are built in the relatively flat inland area, wind farms located in CSG(China Southern Power Grid) are built in the relatively complex terrain environment, such as onshore or hilly areas, which challenges the performance of wind power forecast system (WPFS) greatly. The purpose of the wind power forecasting system application research is to keep the forecasting precision of the system in the complex and changeable scene and meet the requirement by the users. This paper presents the solution to flexibility of WPFS based on the analysis of typical wind resource and wind power characteristics over CSG, and the actual arrangements and user requirements for WPFS as well. Then the framework of forecasting flexibility is proposed according to the three main technical links of WPFS: multiple data inputs, forecasting modeling and forecasting results' forms, providing guidance for the building of WPFS and forecasting precision improvement in view of engineering. To illustrate the idea in detail, historical data of wind farms in CSG is used as displaying samples for discussion. |
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