| 江苏省磷资源安全评价与演化趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 秦云虎,,毛礼鑫,,朱士飞,,赵 倩,吴 蒙,,曹 泊,.江苏省磷资源安全评价与演化趋势[J].武汉工程大学学报,2021,43(2):213-218. |
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| 作者姓名： | 秦云虎 毛礼鑫 朱士飞 赵 倩 吴 蒙 曹 泊 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 江苏地质矿产设计研究院，江苏 徐州 221006；2. 中国煤炭地质总局煤系矿产资源重点实验室，江苏 徐州 221006；3. 江苏省有色金属华东地质勘查局，江苏 南京 210007 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过系统的资料整理与严密的数据分析，在阐述省内磷资源概况与化肥施用需求的基础上，依据熵值法修正的层次分析法建立了农用矿产资源的安全评价体系。修正的安全系数和最终计算结果更加符合实际，显示了该方法的科学性、优越性。评价结果表明:江苏省磷资源安全演化整体呈下降趋势，结合省内情况可分为4个阶段。资源禀赋是影响农用矿产安全的主要因素，其次是化肥施用量、勘查资金投入等因素，据此强调开拓市场、科学施肥、保护环境。模型的建立及结果对资源产业持续健康发展和区域经济社会发展具有参考意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 农用矿产 磷矿资源 熵值法 层次分析法 安全评价 |
Safety Evaluation and Evolution Trend of Phosphate Resource in Jiangsu Province |
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| Authors: | QIN Yunhu " target="_blank">' target="_blank" rel="external"> MAO Lixin " target="_blank">' target="_blank" rel="external"> ZHU Shifei " target="_blank">' target="_blank" rel="external"> ZHAO Qian WU Meng " target="_blank">' target="_blank" rel="external"> CAO Bo " target="_blank">' target="_blank" rel="external"> |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Jiangsu Design Institute of Geology for Mineral Resources，Xuzhou 221006，China；2. Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Mineral Resources， China National Administration of Coal Geology，Xuzhou 221006，China； 3. East China Mineral Exploration and Development Bureau，Nanjing 210007，China |
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| Abstract: | Through the analysis of the collected data， this paper clarifies the resource endowments of phosphate ore and the demand of agricultural fertilizer in Jiangsu province. A safety evaluation system for agricultural mineral resources was established based on the analytic hierarchy process（AHP）modified by the entropy method. The revised weight and results are more consistent with the realistic state，indicating the scientific and superiority of the method. The evaluation results show that the security evolution of phosphorus resources in Jiangsu province presents a downward trend，which can be divided into four stages. Resources endowment is a major factor affecting agricultural minerals’ safety，followed by the consumption of chemical fertilizer and investment in exploration funds. Therefore，developing market，applying fertilizer scientifically and protecting environment are emphasized. The establishment and results of the model are important references for sustainable and healthy development of resources and society. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural minerals phosphate resources entropy method analytic hierarchy process safety evaluation |
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