| 建筑业产业成长发展轨迹的回归分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张艳凤,张万秋.建筑业产业成长发展轨迹的回归分析[J].工程管理学报,2011,0(4):364-367. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张艳凤 张万秋 |
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| 作者单位： | 1．唐山市规划建筑设计研究院 2. 哈尔滨工业大学 管理学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用横向研究方法，利用44 个国家的截面数据为样本，建立了关于建筑业产业成长发展轨迹的回归模型。回归结果表明，国内生产总值中建筑业增加值的比重与人均国民生产总值之间呈现倒U 型，符合库兹涅茨倒U 形曲线假说。基于该回归模型，对我国“十一五”期间建筑业产业发展现状进行了评价，分析了我国建筑业发展水平高于回归预测值的原因，并提出为实现我国建筑业理性、可持续的发展，应从人才、企业、投资、科技创新几个方面实现产业升级。
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| 关 键 词： | 建筑业 产业发展 横断面分析 回归模型 |
Regression Analysis of Growth Development Curve in the Construction Industry |
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| ZHANG Yan-feng,ZHANG Wan-qiu.Regression Analysis of Growth Development Curve in the Construction Industry[J].Journal of Engineering Management,2011,0(4):364-367. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yan-feng ZHANG Wan-qiu |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Tangshan City Planning and Architecture Design & Research Institute 2.School of Management，Harbin Institute of Technology |
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| Abstract: | This paper established a regression model for the growth development curve in the construction industry using the cross-sectional method and the data from 44 countries. The regression result indicates that the proportion of added value in the construction industry to the per capita gross national product in the gross domestic product shows pour U curve，which corresponds with the Kuznets curve. Based on the regression model，the industrial development situation was evaluated during the 11-five-year plan in the construction industry. The reasons for the development level being higher than the regression predicted value were analyzed. The suggestions were proposed to improve the rational and sustainable development through the industrial adjustment from the aspects of human resource，enterprises，investment，and technological innovation. |
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| Keywords: | construction industry industrial development cross-sectional analysis regression model |
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