| 基于多源降水数据估算澜湄流域可能最大降水 |
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| 引用本文： | 熊景华,郭靖,郭生练,李娜,王俊,尹家波,唐俊龙.基于多源降水数据估算澜湄流域可能最大降水[J].水力发电学报,2022,41(9):77-86. |
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| 作者姓名： | 熊景华 郭靖 郭生练 李娜 王俊 尹家波 唐俊龙 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于多源降水数据估算流域可能最大降水（PMP），对推求稀缺资料地区的设计和校核洪水具有重要意义。选取澜沧江-湄公河流域为研究区域，以APHRODITE降水数据集和实测降水为基准，评价CHIRPS、MSWEP和PERSIANN三套全球降水产品的精度，基于改进的统计法估算1天和3天的PMP。结果表明：（1）MSWEP产品具有较高的精度和降水探测能力；（2）栅格尺度下MSWEP与APHRODITE降水数据的PMP估算结果显著相关；（3）基于MSWEP卫星降水数据估算的湄公河流域1天和3天的PMP分别为122 mm和192 mm，与其他的PMP估算结果相近。卫星降水数据可为缺乏资料地区的PMP估算提供重要参考依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 多源数据 可能最大降水 统计法 设计洪水 澜沧江-湄公河流域 |
Estimating probable maximum precipitation based on multi-source data of precipitation in the Lancang-Mekong River basin |
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| XIONG Jinghua,GUO Jing,GUO Shenglian,LI Na,WANG Jun,YIN Jiabo,TANG Junlong.Estimating probable maximum precipitation based on multi-source data of precipitation in the Lancang-Mekong River basin[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2022,41(9):77-86. |
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| Authors: | XIONG Jinghua GUO Jing GUO Shenglian LI Na WANG Jun YIN Jiabo TANG Junlong |
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| Abstract: | Multi-source precipitation products play important roles in estimation of possible maximum precipitation (PMP), especially for data-sparse regions. This study evaluates the accuracy of three global precipitation products－i.e. Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN)－based on the Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) dataset and in-situ measurements in the Lancang-Mekong River basin. An improved statistical method is used to estimate the 1d and 3d PMPs. Results show that (1) the MSWEP dataset presents the satisfactory accuracy and precipitation detection ability; (2) the MSWEP-based PMP is significantly correlated with the APHRODITE results at the grid-cell scale; (3) the MSWEP-based 1 d and 3 d PMP estimates are 122 and 192 mm, respectively, comparable to the previous estimation results. This study indicates that the global precipitation products are useful to PMP estimation for data-sparse regions. |
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| Keywords: | multi-source data probable maximum precipitation statistical method design flood Lancang-Mekong River basin |
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