| Ｎｕｄｇｉｎｇ方法对宁蒙河段气温的模拟试验研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张利娜,刘珂,刘静.Ｎｕｄｇｉｎｇ方法对宁蒙河段气温的模拟试验研究[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2021,0(1):214-218. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张利娜 刘珂 刘静 |
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| 作者单位： | 黄河水利委员会水文局，河南郑州４５０００４ |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目第六课题“黄河智慧防凌平台研发与示范”(2018YFC1508406)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 气温预报的准确性是黄河流域凌汛预报的一个关键因素，黄河宁蒙河段防凌急需精细气温预报产品。利用基于ＷＲＦ模式的Ｎｕｄｇｉｎｇ同化方法，结合ＮＣＥＰ再分析资料和地面观测资料，对２０１８年１２月宁蒙河段气温进行同化模拟试验。通过对比分析未进行同化、ＧｒｉｄＮｕｄｇｉｎｇ和ＳｐｅｃｔｒａｌＮｕｄｇｉｎｇ三种方案对气温场的模拟效果，以及宁蒙河段模拟气温与实况气温之间平均误差、均方根误差、相关系数方面的差异，发现同化试验对气温的模拟效果明显提升，并且两种Ｎｕｄｇｉｎｇ试验的结果基本一致，为该地区建立凌汛期精细化气温预报提供技术支撑。
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| 关 键 词： | 宁蒙河段 气温 ＷＲＦ Ｎｕｄｇｉｎｇ方法 |
Numerical Simulation of Temperature in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Section of the Yellow River Based on Nudging Method |
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| ZHANG Lina,LIU Ke,LIU Jing.Numerical Simulation of Temperature in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Section of the Yellow River Based on Nudging Method[J].Journal of Water Resources Architectural Engineering,2021,0(1):214-218. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Lina LIU Ke LIU Jing |
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| Affiliation: | (Hydrology Bureau of Yellow Rirer Conservancy Comission,Zhengzhou,He'nan 450004,China) |
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| Abstract: | The accuracy of temperature forecast is a key factor in the ice flood forecast of the Yellow River,and the fine temperature forecast products are urgently needed for ice prediction and prevention in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River.Using the Nudging assimilation method based on the WRF model,combined with the NCEP reanalysis data and the ground observation data,the assimilation simulation test of the temperature in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River in December 2018 was implemented.Through comparative analysis,the simulation results of temperature field without assimilation,Grid Nudging and Spectral Nudging,and the differences of mean error,root mean square error and correlation coefficient between simulated temperature and real temperature was discussed.It was found that the simulation effects of assimilation test on temperature was significantly improved,and the results of the two Nudging tests were almost similar,which can provide technical support for the establishment of fine temperature forecast in the ice flood season in this area. |
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| Keywords: | Ningxia-Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River temperature WRF Nudging method |
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