| 基于改进POT模型的混凝土坝监控指标拟定 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐贤琪,杨海云,吴凡,何金平.基于改进POT模型的混凝土坝监控指标拟定[J].水利水运工程学报,2021,0(2):117-123. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐贤琪 杨海云 吴凡 何金平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.武汉大学 水利水电学院，湖北 武汉 430072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目（2018YFC0406906）；国网福建省电力有限公司科技项目（52130417000M） |
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| 摘 要： | 大坝监测效应量作为一种随机变量,采用以极值理论为基础的POT (Peaks over Threshold)模型研究监测效应量的监控指标是合适的,但现有的POT模型的阈值确定以图形法为主,需要人工判断,主观性和随意性较大,且难以实现计算机自动化识别。通过构建阈值递增序列,计算不同阈值Tj条件下相应的监控指标,然后利用概率论中的3σ准则,以监控指标危险值与警戒值的差值?j趋近于测值序列标准差S作为确定最合理阈值的原则,提出了一种改进的阈值确定方法,并给出了一个验证实例。改进方法理论基础明确,有效地克服了图形法的主观性和随机误差,且能采用计算机程序实现最合理阈值的自动识别,增强了POT模型法拟定大坝安全监控指标的实用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 监控指标 POT模型 阈值 广义Pareto分布 3σ准则 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-04-04 |
Determination of monitoring index for concrete dam based on improved POT model |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China2.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China3.Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co., Ltd., Fuzhou 350007, China |
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| Abstract: | As the dam monitoring effect quantity is a random variable, the peaks over threshold (POT) model based on the extreme value theory can be adopted to study the monitoring index of the monitoring effect quantity. However, the threshold in the existing POT model is usually determined by graphic methods, which require human judgment and lead to strong subjectivity and randomness, and automatic computer identification is difficult to realize. In this study, a threshold increment sequence is constructed and the corresponding monitoring indexes under different thresholds are calculated. An improved threshold determination method is then developed based on the "3σ criterion" in probability theory, in which the most reasonable threshold is selected while the difference between the dangerous value and the warning value of the monitoring index approaches to the standard deviation of the measured value sequence. Verification example shows that the improved method is of a clear theoretical foundation and effectively reduces the subjectivity and random errors of the graphical methods. By using computer programs, automatic recognition of the most reasonable threshold can be realized, which enhances the practicability of the POT model in determination of the dam safety monitoring index. |
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