| 水动力-水质耦合模型污染源识别的贝叶斯方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱嵩,刘国华,王立忠.水动力-水质耦合模型污染源识别的贝叶斯方法[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2009,41(5):30-35. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱嵩 刘国华 王立忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州,310027
2. 清华大学水利水电工程系,北京,100084 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(2005CB724202)；国家自然科学基金项目(50609024)；浙江省自然科学基金(Y506138) |
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| 摘 要： | 环境水力学系统存在诸多不确定性,如测量数据的不确定性等,这导致水体中污染源识别这一类反问题具有不适定性,尤其表现为反演结果的非唯一性.经典的正则化方法和最优化方法由于只能获得参数的"点估计",因而在求解不确定性较强的问题时存在较大的困难.此外水质模型和流场控制方程(Navier-Stokes方程)耦合,使得正问题的解具有较强的非线性特征.为解决上述问题,针对水动力一水质耦合模型,建立了基于贝叶斯推理的污染物点源识别的数学模型,通过马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗(Markov chain Monte Carlo,MCMC)后验抽样获得了污染源位置和强度的后验概率分布和估计量,较好地处理了模型的不确定性和非线性.算例结果表明,结合MCMC抽样的贝叶斯推理方法能很好地描述及求解水动力一水质耦合场条件下的污染源识别反问题.
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| 关 键 词： | 环境水力学 反问题 贝叶斯推理 污染源识别 |
| 收稿时间： | 5/3/2008 2:12:44 PM |
| 修稿时间： | 2008/11/19 0:00:00 |
A Bayesian approach for identification of the pollution source in water quality model coupled with hydrodynamics |
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| ZHU Song
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LIU Guo-hua
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WANG Li-zhong
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MAO Gen-hai
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CHENG Wei-ping
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HUANG Yue-fei.A Bayesian approach for identification of the pollution source in water quality model coupled with hydrodynamics[J].Journal of Sichuan University (Engineering Science Edition),2009,41(5):30-35. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Song LIU Guo-hua WANG Li-zhong MAO Gen-hai CHENG Wei-ping HUANG Yue-fei |
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| Affiliation: | College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University,College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University and College of Civil Eng. and Architecture, Zhejiang Univ., Hangzhou 310027, China |
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| Abstract: | Much uncertainty lies in the environmental hydraulics system,such as the uncertainty of the measurement data,have caused the pollution source identification ill-posed,especially the non-unique.In order to settle the problem,for the hydrodynamics-water quality coupled model,a pollution point source identification model was proposed based on Bayesian inference.Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling method was used to get the posterior probability distribution of the source's position and intensity,thus solving the... |
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| Keywords: | environmental hydraulics inverse problem Bayesian inference pollution source identification |
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