| 基于实物期权的电动汽车充电站投资决策评估研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 尚姗姗,刘敦楠,李晓宇,王文,刘明光,彭晓峰,杨烨.基于实物期权的电动汽车充电站投资决策评估研究[J].陕西电力,2022,0(9):67-73,89. |
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| 作者姓名： | 尚姗姗 刘敦楠 李晓宇 王文 刘明光 彭晓峰 杨烨 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.华北电力大学经济与管理学院，北京 102206；2.国网电动汽车服务有限公司，北京 100033） |
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| 摘 要： | 目前关于电动汽车充电站建设的研究局限于选址和定容，考虑投资风险并进行长期规划的研究较少。为避免传统投资决策方法忽略不确定性的投资风险，提出基于实物期权的电动汽车充电站投资决策评估方法。首先，针对充电站投资的收益进行分析，提出充电站投资收益具有多重不确定性；然后，在B-S模型基础上嵌套充电量波动和充电站成本变动的波动率模型；最后，通过对不同区域充电站投资的实物期权价值进行仿真分析，验证了模型的有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 不确定性因素 电动汽车充电站布局 实物期权 电动汽车充电站投资价值评估模型 |
Investment Decision Evaluation of Electric Vehicle Charging Station Based on Real Option |
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| SHANG Shanshan,LIU Dunnan,LI Xiaoyu,WANG Wen,LIU Mingguang,PENG Xiaofeng,YANG Ye.Investment Decision Evaluation of Electric Vehicle Charging Station Based on Real Option[J].Shanxi Electric Power,2022,0(9):67-73,89. |
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| Authors: | SHANG Shanshan LIU Dunnan LI Xiaoyu WANG Wen LIU Mingguang PENG Xiaofeng YANG Ye |
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| Affiliation: | （1. School of Economics and Management，North China Electric Power University，Beijing 102206，China；2. State Grid Electric Vehicle Service Co.， Ltd.， Beijing 100033，China） |
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| Abstract: | At present，the research on the construction of electric vehicle charging station is limited to the site selection and capacity determination，and the research on considering investment risk and long-term planning is less. In order to avoid the neglect of traditional investment decision-making method，a real option based investment decision-making evaluation method for electric vehicle charging station is proposed. Firstly，the income of charging station investment is analyzed，and it is pointed out that the income of charging station investment has multiple uncertainties；Secondly，based on the B-S model，the fluctuation rate model of charging capacity and charging station cost is nested； Finally， through the simulation analysis of real option value of charging station investment in different regions，the validity of the model is verified. |
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| Keywords: | uncertain factors charging station layout real option investment value evaluation model of charging station |
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