| 基于前景理论的风-蓄联合系统中长期电量分解模型的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张瑞帆,钟浩,李世春,姚生奎.基于前景理论的风-蓄联合系统中长期电量分解模型的研究[J].陕西电力,2021,0(9):56-62. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张瑞帆 钟浩 李世春 姚生奎 |
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| 作者单位： | （三峡大学 梯级水电站运行与控制湖北省重点实验室，湖北 宜昌 443002） |
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| 摘 要： | 为解决风-蓄联合系统同时参与中长期市场与日前市场的组合交易问题，提出一种考虑发电商心理特征的方法，并给出基于前景理论的风-蓄联合系统中长期电量分解模型。该模型通过构建发电商收益的价值函数衡量发电商对收益偏差的感受，运用概率权重函数描述发电商对不同场景下中长期电量分配方案的偏好，建立以前景效用值最大化为目标的风-蓄联合系统中长期电量分解模型。算例分析验证了所建模型的合理性和有效性，为发电商制定合理可行的盈利目标，提升发电企业在电力市场环境下的盈利水平提供理论依据和参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 风-蓄联合系统 中长期电量分解 日前市场 前景理论 |
Medium and Long Term Electric Power Decomposition Model of Wind-Storage Combined System Based on Prospect Theory |
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| ZHANG Ruifan,ZHONG Hao,LI Shichun,YAO Shengkui.Medium and Long Term Electric Power Decomposition Model of Wind-Storage Combined System Based on Prospect Theory[J].Shanxi Electric Power,2021,0(9):56-62. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Ruifan ZHONG Hao LI Shichun YAO Shengkui |
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| Affiliation: | （Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory for Operation and Control of Cascaded Hydropower Station，
China Three Gorges University， Yichang 443002， China） |
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| Abstract: | In order to solve the problem exited in wind-storage combined system participating in the combined trading of medium and long term market and day-ahead market at the same time， a method considering the psychological characteristics of generator is proposed， and a medium and long term electricity decomposition model based on prospect theory is given. The value function of generating revenue is constructed to measure the feeling of generating revenue deviation. The probability weight function is used to describe the preference of the generator for the medium and long-term power distribution schemes in different scenarios，and the medium and long-term power decomposition model of the wind-storage combined system is established aiming at the maximization of the foreground utility value. The example analysis verifies the rationality and effectiveness of the model，provides theoretical basis and reference for power generator companies to formulate reasonable and feasible profit goals and improve the profit level of power generation enterprises under power market environment. |
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| Keywords: | wind-storage combined system medium and long term electricity decomposition day-ahead market prospect theory |
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