| 证据理论在软件项目风险分析中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 单晓红,蒋国瑞,黄梯云.证据理论在软件项目风险分析中的应用[J].计算机工程与应用,2008,44(35):76-79. |
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| 作者姓名： | 单晓红 蒋国瑞 黄梯云 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.北京工业大学 经济与管理学院，北京 100022 2.哈尔滨工业大学 管理学院，哈尔滨 150001 |
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| 摘 要： | 软件项目由于其产品的智力密集性和项目的复杂性，在开发过程中，进行风险分析时不同于一般项目有很多客观的指标可供参考，更多地是借助于专家的意见，从而使得专家意见的综合成为软件项目风险分析中一个急需解决的问题。给出了一个基于证据理论的软件项目风险分析模型，通过引入模糊评语集及该集合上的模糊效用值，使用Dempster规则更好地融合各个专家的意见，从而得出了更加合理的风险概率和风险损失评价值。该方法强调了关键专家意见在决策中的重要性，较好地解决了分析结果过于依赖专家选择的问题，从而减少了风险因素量化的复杂性，为风险控制策略的制定提供了依据。并通过算例加以验证。
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| 关 键 词： | 证据理论 软件项目 风险分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-1-2 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008-3-21
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Research of software project risk analysis based on theory of evidence |
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| SHAN Xiao-hong,JIANG Guo-rui,HUANG Ti-yun.Research of software project risk analysis based on theory of evidence[J].Computer Engineering and Applications,2008,44(35):76-79. |
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| Authors: | SHAN Xiao-hong JIANG Guo-rui HUANG Ti-yun |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Economics and Management，Beijing University of Technology，Beijing 100022，China 2.School of Management，Harbin Institute of Technology，Harbin 150001，China |
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| Abstract: | Because of the intelligence-intensiveness of the software product and the complexity of the software project，there are not so many objective indexes we can reference as the common projects when we are analyzing the risks of the software project，and more often depend on the experts’ judgments，thus how to integrate the experts’ judgments has become the problem in the urgent need in the research of the software risk analysis.In order to efficiently syncretize the judgments of the experts，this article brings forward a software project risk analysis model based on theory of evidence by introducing the fuzzy evaluation set and the fuzzy utility function on this set，and gets more reasonable evaluation of risk probability and risk loss.The method emphasizes the importance of the key expert in the decision making，and solves the problem of the evaluation results excessively depend on the selection of the experts，which reduces the complexity of quantifying the risk factors，provides the basis of establishing the risk control strategy. |
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| Keywords: | theory of evidence software project risk analysis |
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