| 概率法油气储量评估及其与确定法的差异比较 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢寅符,陈和平,马中振,周玉冰,刘亚明,王仁冲,刘素艳.概率法油气储量评估及其与确定法的差异比较[J].石油实验地质,2014,36(1):117-122. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢寅符 陈和平 马中振 周玉冰 刘亚明 王仁冲 刘素艳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国石油勘探开发研究院, 北京 100083 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技重大专项(2011ZX05028);中国石油天然气股份有限公司重大科技项目(2012E-0501)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 自1997年石油工程师协会(SPE)和美国证券交易委员会(SEC)承认概率法储量估算以来,概率法被国际上的很多大油公司和机构所采用,但是在国内还是应用的确定法。对概率法做了简单介绍,并通过比较不同确定性条件下概率法和确定法储量评估中的差异,讨论了每种方法的适用性。同时,讨论了概率法储量估算中函数形态对估算结果的影响。研究认为,概率法储量估算充分考虑了保守、最可能和乐观等各种情形,对储量的认识更全面;综合来看,概率法适用于不确定性较大的情况,而确定法适用于不确定性较小的情况;概率法储量评估中参数的函数分布形态对估算结果有较大影响,并且主观性较强,需要严格按照相关标准选取合适的函数形态以消除或减弱影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 储量评估 概率法 确定法 不确定性 函数形态 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012-09-05 |
Probabilistic estimation of reserves and difference between probabilistic and determine methods |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, PetroChina, Beijing 100083, China2. China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Company, Beijing 100034, China3. Huanxiling Oil Production Company, Liaohe Oilfield, PetroChina, Panjin, Liaoning 124114, China |
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| Abstract: | In 1997, the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recognized the probabilistic estimation of reserves. This method has been accepted by many international oil companies and institutions; however, the determine estimation of reserves is still dominant in China. The probabilistic estimation method was briefly introduced in this article. The difference between the two methods under different uncertainty conditions was compared. The applicability of each method was discussed. Meanwhile, the impact of function form on probabilistic estimation was analyzed. It has been concluded that the probabilistic estimation of reserves takes full account of the conservative, the most likely and the optimistic variety of situations, hence provides a more comprehensive understanding of reserves. The probabilistic estimation is applicable to bigger uncertainties while the determine estimation is applicable to smaller uncertainties. Since the function form of probabilistic estimation parameter may obviously influence estimation result and is subjective, the appropriate function form in strict accordance with relevant standards is demanded to eliminate or weaken the influence. |
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