| 新经济地理学视角下的卷烟市场潜力指数编制及实证性探索 |
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| 引用本文： | 李斌,黄仲宇,殷红.新经济地理学视角下的卷烟市场潜力指数编制及实证性探索[J].中国烟草学报,2021,27(2):87-92. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李斌 黄仲宇 殷红 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.广西壮族自治区烟草专卖局(公司), 南宁 530022 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于新经济地理学的市场潜力模型，结合卷烟平均消费倾向，测算了广西区内各市卷烟市场潜力指数，解释了经济社会对卷烟经济运行的支撑机制。经Granger因果检验，由卷烟市场潜力指数反映的市场潜力波动和卷烟销售额的波动构成统计意义上的因果关系；面板数据回归分析表明，卷烟市场潜力波动能够解释各市卷烟销售额波动的63.18%；结合历史销售情况，市场潜力指数能够准确预测卷烟销售；此外，本文在新经济地理学模型框架下，通过“中心—外围”模型，测算了市场获得指数，较好地反映了中心城市集聚效应对卷烟市场潜力的影响。基于此，本文形成以下结论:市场潜力指数能够较好地反映各市卷烟经济运行的市场基本面，可以为高质量发展决策提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 市场潜力 新经济地理学 中心—外围模型 平均消费倾向 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-09-16 |
Compilation and empirical exploration of cigarette market potential index from the perspective of new economic geography |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Tobacco Monopoly Administration, Nanning 530022, China2.Guilin Tobacco Monopoly Administration, Guilin 541000, China |
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| Abstract: | The geographic cigarette market potential index (MP index) has been constructed based on Market Potential Theory of New Economic Geography (NEG) restructured with the average propensity to consume (APC) of tobacco, which interprets the mechanism of socio-economic system in supporting the economical operation of cigarettes market. According to Granger's test, statistical causality between the fluctuation of MP index and the counterpart of cigarette sales has been verified; and the fluctuation of MP index predicts 63.18 percent of cigarette sales fluctuation by panel data regression model. Moreover, a precise prediction of cigarette sale has been obtained by the MP index combined with previous sales. In addition, Market Access Index (MAI) deduced from Core-Periphery model in the frame of NEG theory has been applied to reflect impacts of agglomeration economies on cigarette market potential, which refines the theoretical model of the Market Potential. It can be concluded that the MP index is a sound measure of regional cigarette market potential, which is helpful for high-quality development policy-making. |
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