Application of Integrated Hydrologic and River Basin Management Modeling for the Optimal Development of a Multi-Purpose Reservoir Project

Multi-purpose reservoir development have been always a big challenge for the management of water resources. This paper describes an integrated approach for investigating catchment hydrology in the development of a hydropower and a canal irrigation system based on model analyses. The investigation aims to adequately determine an optimal domestic and irrigation water resources allocation scheme based on an assessment of the reservoir water balance and capacity for hydropower. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) which characterizes basin hydrology and the water management and planning model MODSIM which provides a decision support system for water allocation optimization, were used in this study. The integrated approach was applied to Prek Te River basin in Cambodia. The water demand aspect was examined based on domestic water use, irrigation water, environmental flow, and water losses. An operational rule curve was developed for hydropower operation with respect to a power potential of 13 MW. Hydrologic modeling revealed 90 % dependable water of about 2.7 m³/s during the dry season and 214.3 m³/s during the wet season, indicative of a wet-season dependent reservoir for storage. Results from the 26-years simulation period also showed that diversions for domestic water and irrigation water supply were 92.3 % dependable for a 13 MW capacity hydropower development. The integrated approach was shown to be a valuable decision support tool for water resources management with the determination of an optimum policy for multi-purpose reservoir operation based on available basin water supply.     

Domestic Water Consumption under Intermittent and Continuous Modes of Water Supply

Although an extensive literature emphasizes the disadvantages of intermittent water supply, it remains prevalent in rural areas of developing countries. Understanding the effects of water supply time restrictions on domestic water use activities and patterns, especially for hygienic purposes, is important for the elaboration of the water supply. We studied the influence of intermittent and continuous water supply on water consumption and related activities in villages in the central region of the Wei River basin, China. Data were collected from a survey of 225 households in the sampled villages. Compared with a continuous water supply of 24 h d^?1 (hours per day), adopting an intermittent water supply can reduce domestic water consumption. However, it presents risks in terms of hygiene behavior, particularly the frequency of face, hands, and feet washing, as well as water sharing among family members. Outdoor water consumption is more affected than indoor water consumption under slight supply restriction (≥6 and?<?24 h d^?1), whereas indoor water use is most affected under moderate supply restriction (>1.5 and?<?6 h d^?1). Villages with high supply restriction (≤1.5 h d^?1) meet only the minimum basic requirements for domestic use, 33.6–34.7 L c^?1 d^?1 (liters per capita per day). We conclude that the determination of the daily water delivery duration for intermittent water supply in rural communities of developing countries should give greater consideration to differences in water use activities and patterns under the water supply time restrictions.     

Changes in the Coastline and Water Level of the Akşehir and Eber Lakes Between 1975 and 2009

The Ak?ehir and Eber Lakes, relatively shallow, small freshwater lakes with an area of 361 km² and 150 km² and average depth of 7 m and 2 m (1998), respectively in southwestern Turkey, have experienced a severe decline in water levels in recent decades. This study aimed to investigate coastline and water level changes of lakes and identify the causes for the decline in lake levels. Nine Landsat images from different times, monthly temperature, precipitation, discharge, lake level records and population data were used to analyze these changes. From 1975 to 2009, the water surface areas of the Ak?ehir and Eber Lakes decreased from 356,929 to 126,482 km² and from 119,882 to 85,663 km², a loss of 64.5% and 28.4% over the 34-year period, respectively. From 1975 to 2004, the Ak?ehir Lake level declined by 2.67 m from 956.02 m to 953.35 and the Eber Lake level declined by 2.03 m from 966.75 m to 964.72 m from 1975 to 2004 based on ground lake level data (in situ). The results of the temperature and precipitation analysis showed that although the annual mean climatic factors vary substantially, they show small increasing trend over the record periods. Annual discharge records on the Akarçay River and its tributaries decreased over the basin during the same period. Irrigation systems, three dams and seven pounds built in recent decades for agricultural irrigation and domestic use, made the major impact on lowering the lake levels because they derive water from the river for human use upstream of the lakes’ catchments. Population growth, rising water consumption for agricultural and domestic purposes and building dams has led to lake levels declining. The change of lake levels might depend more on anthropogenic factors than on climatic factors.     

Approach for Estimating Available Consumable Water for Human Activities in a River Basin

Water is vital for economic development and environmental sustainability in arid and semi-arid basins. Management of water resource requires good understanding of available water for human consumption. Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the hydrological cycle and represents the amount of water lost to the atmosphere in a basin. This study proposes a new approach to estimate available consumable water for human activities (ACW) in a basin based on precipitation, natural ET, and uncontrollable outflow, thus capping water use for human consumption in a basin. The ACW is illustrated for the Hai Basin in North China, where the average ACW from 2001 to 2012 for the entire basin is estimated at 31.97?×?10⁹m³ yr.^?1, varying between 18.61?×?10⁹m³yr^?1 in 2002 and 42.60?×?10⁹m³yr^?1 in 2003. A water balance analysis for the basin indicates that the aquifer water depletion in Hai Basin for 2001–2012 is 5.23?×?10⁹m³yr^?1. Compared to existing water resources assessment, ACW provides an easier approach to water management planning as no hydrological data are required, only data on precipitation and ET, supported by landcover data.     

Management of Alluvial Aquifers in Two Southern African Ephemeral Rivers: Implications for IWRM

This paper summarises innovative research into the assessment of long-term groundwater recharge from flood events in dryland environments of the Kuiseb (Namibia) and the Buffels (South Africa) rivers. The integrated water resource management (IWRM) policies and institutions affecting the exploitation of groundwater resources in each of these developing countries are compared. The relatively large alluvial aquifer of the Kuiseb River (～240 Mm³) is recharged from irregular floods originating in the upper catchment. Reported abstraction of 4.6 Mm³ per year is primarily consumed in the town of Walvis Bay, although the groundwater decay (pumping and natural losses along the period 1983–2005) was estimated in 14.8 Mm³ per year. Recharge is variable, occurring in 11 out of 13 years in the middle Kuiseb River, but only in 11 out of 28 years in the middle-lower reaches. In contrast, the Buffels River has relatively minor alluvial aquifers (～11 Mm³) and recharge sources derive from both lateral subsurface flow and floodwater infiltration, the latter limited to a recharge maximum of 1.3 Mm³ during floods occurring once every four years. Current abstractions to supply the adjacent rural population and a few small-scale, irrigated commercial farms are 0.15 Mm³ yr^???1, well within the long-term sustainable yield estimated to be 0.7 Mm³ yr^???1. Since independence in 1990, Namibia’s water resource management approach has focussed on ephemeral river basin management of which the Kuiseb Basin Management Committee (KBMC) is a model. Here, some water points are managed independently by rural communities through committees while the national bulk water supplier provides for Walvis Bay Municipality from the lower aquifers. This provides a sense of local ownership through local participation between government, NGOs and CBOs (community-based organisations) in the planning and implementation of IWRM. Despite the potential for water resource development in the lower Buffels River, the scope for implementing IWRM is limited not only by the small aquifer size, but also because basin management in South Africa is considered only in the context of perennial rivers. Since 2001, water service delivery in the Buffels River catchment has become the responsibility of two newly created local municipalities. As municipal government gains experience, skills and capacity, its ability to respond to local needs related to water service delivery will be accomplished through local participation in the design and implementation of annual ‘integrated development plans’. These two case studies demonstrate that a variety of IWRM strategies in the drylands of developing countries are appropriate depending on scales of governance, evolving policy frameworks, scales of need and limitations inherent in the hydrological processes of groundwater resources.     

Impact of El Niño and Climate Change on Rainwater Harvesting in a Caribbean State

The water situation of the Pusey district in St Catherine parish of Jamaica is acute because of the district’s hilly terrains which made connections to centralised public water supply difficult. Residents depend on rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems to meet potable needs, like many other catchments across Jamaica. Rainwater collecting practices and water use habits of the residents were surveyed and the present and future RWH capacity was evaluated using the available 18 years (1996 to 2013) rainfall data and downscaled PRECIS model A2 and B2 climate change scenarios. In addition, the effect of El Niño episodes on rainfall patterns was evaluated. The coefficients of variations for annual rainfall were found to be higher for the El Niño years than in normal years. In two of the El Niño years (1997 and 2009), rainwater harvesting capacity is negatively impacted as rainfall annual total is (42 % and 34 %) lesser than the average annual rainfall. The ability of RWH to meet potable needs in 2030s and 2050s will be reduced based on predicted shorter intense showers and frequent dry spells. A storage tank of 2.5 to 4.0 m³ per household (4 persons) is proposed to meet water demand during the maximum consecutive dry days, and January and February water shortage periods. Design of efficient RWH systems and provision of government subsidy on storage tanks will enable the residents to capture more rainwater to meet their daily domestic needs.     

Domestic water access and pricing in urban areas of Mozambique: between equity and cost recovery for the provision of a vital resource

This article first presents the urban domestic water access situation in Mozambique. Then it analyzes the country's tariff system as a tool to recover water supply costs and to secure equity and affordability for the urban households served. The analysis focused on those households with in-dwelling water access (less than 50% of the urban population in Mozambique). Urban families using 5 m³, 10 m³, and 15 m³ of in-dwelling piped water per month pay an average of USD 0.86, 0.74, and 0.76 per m³, respectively. At the national level, cost recovery is an issue because in most urban areas operation and maintenance costs are not fully covered. The average coverage ratio for the country is 0.85. The presented figures indicate that a revision of the water tariffs currently applied in Mozambique could help improve equity, affordability and cost recovery.     

Delineation of Groundwater Potential Zones of Coastal Groundwater Basin Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making Technique

Delineation of groundwater potential zones (GWPZ) has been performed for a coastal groundwater basin of eastern India. The groundwater potential zone index (GWPZI) map is generated by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) from different influencing features, e.g., Land Use/Land Cover (LU/LC), soil (S), geomorphology (GM), hydrogeology (HG), surface geology (SG), recharge rate (RR), drainage density (DD), rainfall (RF), slope (Sl), surface water bodies (SW), lineament density (LD), and Normalized Difference Vegetative Index (NDVI). Recharge rate values are estimated from hydrological water balance model. Overlay weighted sum method is used to integrate all thematic feature maps to generate GWPZ map of the study area. Four zones have been identified for the coastal groundwater basin [very good: 36.39 % (273.53 km², good: 43.57 % (327.47 km²), moderate: 18.27 % (137.30 km²), and poor: 1.77 % (13.27 km²)]. Areas in north to south-west and south-east direction show very good GWPZ due to the presence of low drainage density. GWPZ map and well yield values show good agreement. Sensitivity analysis reveals that exclusion/absence of rainfall and lineament density increases the poor groundwater potential zones. Omission of hydrogeology, soils, surface geology, and NDVI show maximum increase in good GWPZ. Obtained GWPZ map can be utilized effectively for planning of sustainable agriculture. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology for a general coastal groundwater basin.     

Optimization of Hydraulic-Hydrologic Complex System of Reservoirs and Connecting Tunnel

Nowadays, population growth, environmental constraints and climate change can adversely affect our water supply systems’ ability to keep up with demand. Due to lack of unsuitable distribution and dispersion of water resources, precipitation, soil resources, etc., inter-basin transfers of water could be a solution in order to balancing between supply and demand water in different areas. In this study, the optimal designing of water conveyance from basin No-1 to basin No-2 is investigated. Water is transferred between these two dams by tunnel structure. Since the water flow through the tunnel is under pressure, increasing dam height will cause the decrease of tunnel diameter for constant water conveyance efficiency. The purpose of this study is transferring 95 % of water flow between two basins after supplying the agriculture consumption and environmental needs. Therefore, the mathematical program was developed first to solve the governing equations of water balance of reservoir and hydraulic of tunnel. Then, various strategies including different diameters of tunnel and dam height were considered and finally the best strategy from economic and technical viewpoint was proposed. The results showed that dam height of 151.2 m and tunnel diameter of 3.2 m are the economic options to convey of 95 % of the water.     

Spatial Water Use efficiency Index towards resource sustainability: application in the island of Crete,Greece

This paper introduces a new index to test water resource sustainability in regions where groundwater is the main source of water supply. The Spatial Water Use efficiency Index (SWUI) is a geographical information system (GIS) environment index which expresses the ratio of potential available water volume (groundwater recharge minus water needs) to the respective water needs. Its low and/or negative values indicate water stress. SWUI is applied in the island of Crete, Greece, where water needs are mainly covered by groundwater abstractions. The annual water mass balance is estimated using the RIBASIM (River Basin Simulation) model. The total freshwater needs in the Cretan region reach 535 hm³ annually according to the model's simulation. SWUI with values ranging from ? 0.8 to 214.3 has proved to be an important visual tool towards depicting the low efficiency of the east part of the island to cover water demand and a useful decision-making tool in the sustainability evaluation of groundwater aquifers.     

Socio-Economic Impact of Evaporation Losses from Reservoirs Under Past, Current and Future Water Availability Scenarios in the Semi-Arid Segura Basin

This study assesses evaporation losses from water reservoirs in the semi-arid Segura basin (south-east Spain), one of the most water stressed European catchments. These losses are evaluated from both the hydrologic and economic perspectives under different water availability scenarios that are based on water policy trends and climate change predictions. We take a multidisciplinary approach to the analysis, combining energy balance models to assess the effect of climate change on evaporation from water bodies, Class-A pan data and pan coefficients to determine evaporation loss on a regional scale, and non-linear mathematical programming modelling to simulate the economic impact of water use and allocation in the basin. Our results indicate that water availability could be reduced by up to 40 % in the worst-case scenario, with an economic impact in the 32–36 % range, depending on the indicator in question. The total annual evaporation loss from reservoirs ranges from 6.5 % to 11.7 % of the water resources available for irrigation in the basin, where evaporation from small reservoirs is more than twice that from large dams. The economic impact of such losses increases with water scarcity, ranging from 4.3 % to 12.3 % of the value of agricultural production, 4.0 % to 12.0 % of net margin, 5.8 % to 10.7 % of the irrigated area, and 5.4 % to 13.5 % of agricultural employment. Results illustrate the importance of evaporation losses from reservoirs in this region and the marked upward trend for future scenarios. Besides, they highlight the extent of the impact of climate change on future water resources availability and use in southern Europe.     

Downscaling Monsoon Rainfall over River Godavari Basin under Different Climate-Change Scenarios

Evaluating the impact of climate change at river basin level has become essential for proper management of the water resources. In the present study, Godavari River basin in India is taken as study area to project the monthly monsoon precipitation using statistical downscaling. The downscaling method used is a regression based downscaling termed as fuzzy clustering with multiple regression. Among the atmospheric variables simulated by global circulation/climate model (GCM) mean sea level pressure, specific humidity and 500 hPa geopotential height are used as predictors. 1^o × 1^o gridded rainfall data over Godavari river basin are collected from India Meteorological Department (IMD). A statistical relationship is established between the predictors and predictand (monsoon rainfall) to project the monsoon rainfall for the future using the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) over IMD grid points under the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) scenarios of Fifth Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP 5). Downscaling procedure is applied to all 25 IMD grid points over the basin to find out the spatial distribution of monsoon rainfall for the future scenarios. For 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios results show an increasing trend. For scenario 8.5 rainfall showed a mixed trend with rainfall decreasing in the first thirty years of prediction and then increasing gradually over the next sixty years.     

Design of Managed Aquifer Recharge for Agricultural and Ecological Water Supply Assessed Through Numerical Modeling

The Walla Walla Basin, in Eastern Oregon and Washington, USA, faces challenges in sustaining an agricultural water supply while maintaining sufficient flow in the Walla Walla River for endangered fish populations. Minimum summer river flow of 0.71 m³/s is required, forcing irrigators to substitute groundwater from a declining aquifer for lost surface water diversion. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) was initiated in 2004 attempting to restore groundwater levels and improve agricultural viability. The Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM) was used to compute surface and shallow groundwater conditions in the basin under water management scenarios with varying water use, MAR, and allowable minimum river flow. A mean increase of 1.5 m of groundwater elevation, or 1.5 % of total aquifer storage, was predicted over the model area when comparing maximum MAR and no MAR scenarios where minimum river flow was increased from current level. When comparing these scenarios a 53 % greater summer flow in springs was predicted with the use of MAR. Results indicate MAR can supplement irrigation supply while stabilizing groundwater levels and increasing summer streamflow. Potential increase in long-term groundwater storage is limited by the high transmissivity of the aquifer material. Increased MAR caused increased groundwater discharge through springs and stream beds, benefiting aquatic habitat rather than building long-term aquifer storage. Judicious siting of recharge basins may be a means of increasing the effectiveness of MAR in the basin.     

EVALUATING TRADEOFFS BETWEEN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW PROTECTIONS AND AGRICULTURAL WATER SECURITY

River basin managers responsible for water allocation decisions are increasingly required to evaluate tradeoffs between environmental flow protections and human water security. However, the basin‐scale effects of environmental flow regulations on water users are not well understood, in part because analyses are complicated by the spatial and temporal variation in water availability, human demands, and ecosystem needs. Here, we examine alternative regional environmental flow policies and their effects on a distributed network of water users in a small (182 km²) river basin in coastal California. We use a hydrologic model to simulate water diversion operations under three policy scenarios and quantify potential impacts to bypass flows for adult migrating salmon and agricultural water storage. The results indicate that there are inherent tradeoffs between environmental flows and agricultural water security, with the most restrictive environmental policy associated with the greatest impacts to water users. Surprisingly, the moderate environmental flow policy had larger impacts to bypass flows than the unregulated management scenario, suggesting that ecological benefits of the moderate policy are small relative to the adverse effects on agricultural water users. Conflicts between environmental and human water needs were greatest in upper catchments (<2.5 km²), where flow protections caused the greatest reduction in water storage. Although natural supplies were adequate for meeting water needs in most years regardless of policy restrictions, potential for conflict between environmental flow protections and water security was evident in dry years. Therefore, strategies are particularly needed for drought‐year water management to ensure adequate environmental flows while reducing human water allocations in an equitable manner. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Resolving Trans-jurisdictional Water Conflicts by the Nash Bargaining Method: A Case Study in Zhangweinan Canal Basin in North China

Trans-jurisdictional conflict in both water quantity and quality is a general concern in large river basins. In this paper, the relative utility function combined with the asymmetric Nash bargaining method was established to analyze the trans-jurisdictional conflict between water quantity and water quality in the Zhangweinan Canal Basin in China. The basin was divided into four conflict stakeholders, namely, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan, and Shandong Provinces, based on administrative unit. The water usage and pollutant discharge scheme for multiple stakeholders was optimized using the established model to satisfy the environmental flow and water quality objectives at the identified conflict sections. The results indicated that the total water consumption was reduced from 4.38?×?10⁹?m³ in 2007 to 1.97?×?10⁹?m³, and that the allowable COD and NH₃-N discharged into the river was less than 3.8?×?10⁴?t and 4.3?×?10³?t, respectively. About 81.1 % of COD and 76.1 % of NH₃-N should be further reduced compared with the values in 2007.     

Joint Operation and Dynamic Control of Flood Limiting Water Levels for Cascade Reservoirs

Reservoirs are among the most effective tools for integrated water resources development and management. The dynamic control of reservoir flood limiting water level (FLWL) is a valuable and effective method to compromise the flood control and conservation for reservoir operation during the flood season. This paper focuses on joint operation and dynamic control of FLWL for cascade reservoirs. A composition and decomposition-based model that consists of an aggregation module, a storage decomposition module and a simulation operation module was developed. The model was applied to the Qingjiang basin in south of China using the 3-hour inflow data series for representative hydrological years. Application results indicate that the proposed model can make an effective tradeoff between the flood control and hydropower generation. Joint operation and dynamic control of FLWL can increase power production by 4.51 % (1.79?×?10⁸?kWh) and increase water use rate by 2.73 %. It can enhance benefits of the Qingjiang cascade reservoirs without compromising flood prevention objectives.     

Impact of Urbanization on the Hydrology of Ganga Basin (India)

Large scale emigrations from rural areas to urban areas and population growth have been uninterrupted and accelerating phenomena in parts of Ganga basin, where urbanization is increasing at an unprecedented rate. Urban agglomeration is causing radical changes in groundwater recharge and modifying the existing mechanisms. Majority of the cities are sited on unconfined or semi confined aquifers depend upon river water and groundwater for most of their water supply and disposal of most of their liquid effluents and solid residues to the rivers and ground. There has also been an inevitable rise in waste production. Drainage of surface water has been disrupted as the small natural channels and low lying areas have been in filled, often with municipal waste. Total water potential of the Ganga basin including surface water potential and ground water potential is around 525.02 km³ and 170.00 km³ respectively. Basin supports approximately 42% of the total population in India. Water tables are declining at approximately an average of 0.20 m per year in many parts of the basin and there is a trend of deteriorating groundwater quality. The demand of water has been increased many folds and most of the areas are highly reliant upon the groundwater to meet this increasing demand for water, but unfortunately degradation of groundwater both in terms of quantity and quality has deteriorated the situation. Studies shows that change in climate may increase temperature by 2 to 6°C and can reduce precipitation up to 16%, which could reduce the groundwater recharge by 50%. In densely populated Ganga basin urban drainage consumes a high proportion of the investments into urban infrastructure and needs integrated approach for the sustainable development of water management, water education regarding conservation and pollution caused by urbanization.     

Modeling Water Resources and River-Aquifer Interaction in the Júcar River Basin,Spain

The paper presents how to solve some practical problems of water planning in a medium/large river basin, such as: the water resources assessment and its spatial-temporal variability over the long-short term, the impact of human activities on the water cycle, due to groundwater pumping and water returns into aquifers, the river-aquifer interactions and the aquifer depletion. It is based on the use of a new monthly conceptual distributed water balance model -PATRICAL- that includes the surface water (SW), groundwater (GW) behavior and the river-aquifer interaction. The model is applied to the Júcar River Basin District (RBD) in Spain (43,000 km²), with more than 250 aquifers, including catchments with humid climates (Júcar RBD northern), semiarid and arid catchments (southern). The model has a small number of parameters and obtains a satisfactory performance in SW and GW behavior. It has been calibrated/validated using monthly streamflows and two additional elements not generally used in models for large river basins, GW levels and river-aquifer interactions. In the hydrological time series of the Júcar RBD headers a statistical change point in the year 1979/80 is detected. It is due to changes in precipitation patterns and represents a 40 % of reduction in streamflows in relation with the previous period. The impact of GW pumping in all aquifers is determined, the ‘Mancha Oriental’ aquifer produces a significant reduction in streamflows of the Júcar river –around 200–250 hm³/year. The GW level in the ‘Villena-Benejama’ aquifer -Vinalopo Valley- has declined more than 200 m in last 30 years.     

Catchment Erosion and Sediment Delivery in a Limno-Reservoir Basin Using a Simple Methodology

Accelerated soil erosion is a threat for the societies due to the loss of ecosystems services. Soil erosion and sediment delivery have been assessed in a small catchment of Central Spain with a new water body, the Pareja Limno-reservoir, located in its outlet. This limno-reservoir was created in 2006 with environmental and recreational purposes in the riverine zone of a large reservoir. Sedimentation risk is an issue of concern regarding limno-reservoirs environmental feasibility. Thus, the study of the soil erosion in the Pareja Limno-reservoir catchment and its sediment delivery seemed of the utmost importance. In this paper we establish an affordable and simple methodology to address it. A soil erosion and deposition monitoring network was installed in the Ompólveda River basin (≈88 km²), which flows into the Pareja Limno-reservoir. Results obtained were related with those from a sedimentation study previously carried out in the limno-reservoir. Gross hillslope erosion in the catchment was 6.0 Mg ha^?1 year^?1, which is in agreement with values reported for Mediterranean areas. After subtraction of the deposition measured, a soil loss of 1.2 Mg ha^?1 year^?1 was found in the catchment. Sediment delivery ratio (SDR) was estimated to be 3.8 %. SDR is low as a result of the low connectivity between the stream network and the limno-reservoir. Some local characteristics may also have a secondary influence in the low SDR value. Results obtained support the environmental feasibility of the Pareja Limno-reservoir from the sedimentation risk perspective. They also demonstrate that the methodology followed allows the assessment of soil loss and sediment delivery at a catchment scale, and the identification of areas where the erosion problems are most severe.     

Impacts of Land-use Changes on the Hydrology of the Grande River Basin Headwaters,Southeastern Brazil

Land-use changes affect soil water balance. The Upper Grande River Basin (UGRB) headwaters have undergone intense modifications in land use. This study was conducted to simulate, using the LASH model, the impacts on the hydrological regime in the UGRB with five land-use trends: S₁ and S₂ – reforestation with eucalyptus covering 20 % and 50 %, respectively, from the current grassland area; S₃ – reforestation with eucalyptus covering 100 % of the current grassland area only in the sub-basins where this trend is predominant; S₄ and S₅ deforestation of 30 % and 70 % of the forest remnants in the Mantiqueira Range region for the cultivation of grasslands, respectively. Results demonstrate that runoff would be reduced due to the land-use changes by 51.65 mm yr^?1, 110.29 mm yr^?1 and 59.48 mm yr^?1 for scenarios S₁, S₂ and S₃, respectively. However, scenarios S₄ and S₅ could increase streamflow by 57.63 mm year^?1 and 156.78 mm year^?1, respectively. This indicates that land-use changes might make the basin more prone to flooding and other hazards associated with increased runoff.