Using multiple datasets to understand trends in serious road traffic casualties

Accurate information on the incidence of serious road traffic casualties is needed to plan and evaluate prevention strategies. Traditionally police reported collisions are the only data used. This study investigate the extent to which understanding of trends in serious road traffic injuries is aided by the use of multiple datasets. Health and police datasets covering all or part of Great Britain from 1996-2003 were analysed. There was a significantly decreasing trend in police reported serious casualties but not in the other datasets. Multiple data sources provide a more complete picture of road traffic casualty trends than any single dataset. Increasing availability of electronic health data with developments in anonymised data linkage should provide a better platform for monitoring trends in serious road traffic casualties.     

Injury severity of pedestrians,bicyclists and motorcyclists resulting from crashes with reversing cars

ObjectivePedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists can suffer serious injury in road traffic crashes. To date, no studies examine the injury severity within this vulnerable cohort following collisions with reversing cars.Material and methodsOur institution prospectively maintains a database including medical and technical information regarding traffic accidents in our area, including urban and suburban regions. In a retrospective review of this database, the authors describe the injury severity of pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists following traffic crashes involving reversing cars. Injury severity was described using the abbreviated injury scale (AIS) as well as the maximum abbreviated injury scale (MAIS).ResultsThis study included 234 crashes occurring between 1999 and 2012. The lower extremity was injured most often while also suffering more severe injuries with a median AIS of 1 compared to 0 in all other documented body regions. The upper extremity was injured second most often. AIS ranging from 4 to 6 were infrequent. AIS 3 however, was documented for the legs in 4.3% of patients. MAIS 0, 1, 2, 3, 5 and 9 were found in 1, 164, 46, 14, 1, and 8 patients in the study cohort, respectively. Pedestrians and motorcyclists were seriously injured in 9.1% and 9.6% of cases, respectively. In contrast, no bicyclists suffered serious injuries. As to the zone of impact, most collisions occurred at the rear center of the vehicle (35%) followed by rear left (26%), rear right (20%), side rear (11%), side center (4%) and side front (3%). 204 (87.2%) collisions occurred during the day, 19 (8.1%) at night and 11 (4.7%) at twilight. Speed was similar in crashes involving pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists, being as high as 7.0 ± 3.6, 7.0 ± 4.0 and 7.9 ± 4.2 km/h respectively.ConclusionsThis is the first study that analyzes injury severity among these vulnerable road users following collisions with reversing vehicles. The majority of collisions occur at low impact speed during the day. Most injuries resulting from these collisions are not serious, however pedestrians are at greatest risk of severe injury to any body region. The lower extremities suffer the most serious and frequent injuries within this cohort.     

Burden of road traffic injuries: Disability-adjusted life years in relation to hospitalization and the maximum abbreviated injury scale

Background

The consequences of non-fatal road traffic injuries (RTI) are increasingly adopted by policy makers as an indicator of traffic safety. However, it is not agreed upon which level of severity should be used as cut-off point for assessing road safety performance. Internationally, within road safety, injury severity is assessed by means of the maximum abbreviated injury scale (MAIS). The choice for a severity cut-off point highly influences the measured disease burden of RTI. This paper assesses the burden of RTI in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) by hospitalization status and MAIS cut-off point in the Netherlands.

Methods

Hospital discharge register (HDR) and emergency department (ED) data for RTI in the Netherlands were selected for the years 2007–2009, as well as mortality data. The incidence, years lived with disability (YLD), years of life lost (YLL) owing to premature death, and DALYs were calculated. YLD for admitted patients was subdivided by MAIS severity levels.

Results

RTI resulted in 48,500 YLD and 27,900 YLL respectively, amounting to 76,400 DALYs per year in the Netherlands. The largest proportion of DALYs is related to fatalities (37%), followed by admitted MAIS 2 injuries (25%), ED treated injuries (16%) and admitted MAIS 3+ injuries (18%). Admitted MAIS 1 injuries only account for a small fraction of DALYs (4%). In the Netherlands, the diseases burden of RTI is highest among cyclists with 39% of total DALYs. One half of all bicycle related DALYs are attributable to admitted MAIS 2+ injuries, but ED treated injuries also account for a large proportion of DALYs in this group (28%). Car occupants are responsible for 26% of all DALYs, primarily caused by fatalities (66%), followed by admitted MAIS 2+ injuries (25%). ED treated injuries only account for 5% of DALYs in this group.

Conclusions

When using admitted MAIS 3+ or admitted MAIS 2+ as severity cut-off point, 54% and 80% of all DALYs are captured respectively. Assessing the influence of different severity cut-off points by MAIS on the proportion and number of DALYs captured gives valuable information for guiding choices on the definition of serious RTI.     

Prevalence and factors associated with road traffic crash among taxi drivers in Hanoi,Vietnam

Injury due to road traffic crash is a major cause of ill health and premature deaths in developing countries. Taxis provide a main mode of public transport in Vietnam but there has been little research on the risk of crash for taxi drivers. This retrospective study collected information on taxi crashes for the period 2006–2009 by interviewing drivers from five taxi companies in Hanoi, Vietnam, using a structured questionnaire. Of the total 1214 participants recruited, 276 drivers reported at least one crash, giving an overall crash prevalence of 22.7%. Among the crashed group, 50 drivers (18.1%) were involved in two to four crashes. Logistic regression analysis further identified age of driver, type of driving licence, employment status, perceived sufficiency of income, seat-belt usage, and traffic infringement history to be significantly associated with the crash risk. Further prospective and qualitative studies are recommended to provide detailed crash characteristics as well as behaviour and perception of taxi drivers, so that an effective intervention can be developed to improve road safety and to prevent injury of these commercial drivers.     

Risk factors for fatal road traffic accidents in Udine, Italy.

In the Province of Udine, Northeast Italy, mortality from road accidents is 37% higher than in the country as a whole. To identify the major risk factors for fatal crashes in this area, we analyzed the Police reports of 10,320 road traffic accidents that occurred from 1991 to 1996. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association of characteristics of drivers and accidents with accident severity. The risk of involvement in fatal rather than non-fatal accidents was lower among females than among males (odds ratio (OR) = 0.65; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.53-0.80). Compared with subjects < 30 years of age, subjects aged > or = 65 had a significantly increased risk of fatal injury as pedestrians (OR = 10.87; 95% CI, 4.45-26.54), car drivers (OR = 1.85; 95% CI, 1.08-3.18), moped riders (OR = 3.53; 95% CI, 1.42-8.78), and bicycle riders (OR = 7.72; 95% CI, 2.56-23.29). In accidents that occurred from 1:00 to 5:00 h the risk of death was higher than from 6:00 to 11:00 h among pedestrians (OR = 8.88; 95% CI, 2.58-30.52), car drivers (OR = 4.95; 95% CI, 3.09-7.95), motorcycle riders (OR = 13.44; 95%CI, 2.54-71.05) and moped riders (OR = 8.76; 95% CI, 2.42-31.69). Risk of death among pedestrians, car drivers, moped, and bicycle riders was also significantly increased on roads outside the urban center. Driver's injury was strongly associated with lack of use of seat belts (OR = 13.27; 95% CI, 9.39-18.74, for fatal injury; OR = 2.49; 95% CI, 2.17-2.86, for non-fatal injury). Simple interventions focused on protecting the weakest road users and based on law enforcement, behavioral change and environmental modification might result in reducing the significant excess of road traffic accident mortality found in the study area.     

Road traffic crashes on the Yaoundé-Douala road section, Cameroon

Objective

Developing countries account for more than 85% of all road traffic deaths in the world. Our aims were to estimate road morbidity and mortality and to describe the main characteristics of road traffic crashes on a heavy traffic road section in Cameroon.

Methods

We conducted a study of police reports of the 2004-2007 period retrieved from the 13 police stations in charge of the 243 km Yaoundé-Douala road section in Cameroon.

Results

The estimated overall number of people killed per 100 million kilometres driven was 73, more than 35 times higher than on similar roads in the US or Europe. The most severe crashes were those involving vulnerable road users (97 deaths) and vehicles travelling in opposite directions (136 deaths). The main causes of fatal crashes were mechanical failures (28%), two-thirds being tyre problems, hazardous overtaking (23%), and excessive speed (20%).

Conclusions

The burden of road traffic injuries on heavy traffic roads in Cameroon calls for urgent interventions. Traffic calming measures and control of vehicle condition appear to be the most cost-effective interventions.     

A novel framework for improvement of road accidents considering decision-making styles of drivers in a large metropolitan area

Road accidents can be caused by different factors such as human factors. Quality of the decision-making process of drivers could have a considerable impact on preventing disasters. The main objective of this study is the analysis of factors affecting road accidents by considering the severity of accidents and decision-making styles of drivers. To this end, a novel framework is proposed based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) and statistical methods (SMs) to assess the factors affecting road accidents. In this study, for the first time, dominant decision-making styles of drivers with respect to severity of injuries are identified. To show the applicability of the proposed framework, this research employs actual data of more than 500 samples in Tehran, Iran. The empirical results indicate that the flexible decision style is the dominant style for both minor and severe levels of accident injuries.     

The effect of traffic tickets on road traffic crashes

Road traffic crashes are globally a leading cause of death. The current study tests the effect of traffic tickets issued to drivers on subsequent crashes, using a unique dataset that overcomes some shortcomings of previous studies. The study takes advantage of a national longitudinal dataset at the individual level that merges Israeli census data with data on traffic tickets issued by the police and official data on involvement in road traffic crashes over seven years. The results show that the estimated probability of involvement in a subsequent fatal or severe crash was more than eleven times higher for drivers with six traffic tickets per year compared to those with one ticket per year, while controlling for various confounders. However, the majority of fatal and severe crashes involved the larger population of drivers who received up to one ticket on average per year. The current findings indicate that reducing traffic violations may contribute significantly to crash and injury reduction. In addition, mass random enforcement programs may be more effective in reducing fatal and severe crashes than targeting high-risk recidivist drivers.     

Post-licence driver education for the prevention of road traffic crashes: a systematic review of randomised controlled trials

The effectiveness of post-licence driver education for preventing road traffic crashes was quantified using a systematic review and meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. Searches of appropriate electronic databases, the Internet and reference lists of relevant papers were conducted. The searches were not restricted by language or publication status. Data were pooled from 21 randomised controlled trials, including over 300,000 full licence-holding drivers of all ages. Nineteen trials reported subsequent traffic offences, with a pooled relative risk of 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.94, 0.98). Fifteen trials reported traffic crashes with a pooled relative risk of 0.98 (0.96, 1.01). Four trials reported injury crashes with a pooled relative risk of 1.12 (0.88, 1.41). The results provide no evidence that post-licence driver education is effective in preventing road injuries or crashes. Although the results are compatible with a small reduction in the occurrence of traffic crashes, this may be due to selection biases or bias in the included trials.     

Multiple-vehicle traffic accidents in Hong Kong

‘Multiple-vehicle traffic accident’ refers to a crash between two or more moving objects. Unlike single-vehicle accidents, not all drivers involving in a multiple-vehicle accident are responsible for the occurrence of the event. Accordingly, variables such as road type, speed limit and number of vehicles involved in the accident are expected to play a much more important role in association with injury severity in multiple-vehicle accidents. To study the factors influencing injury severity of multiple-vehicle traffic accidents, a population-based study was conducted. The traffic accident data was obtained from the Traffic Accident Data System (TRADS), which was developed by the Transport Department, Police Force and Information Technology Services Department, Hong Kong. Multiple-vehicle traffic accidents (N = 10,630) occurring during the 2-year period 1999/2000 were considered. Potential risk factors such as district, human, vehicle, safety, environmental and site factors were examined. Categorizing injury severity into “fatal/serious” and “slight”, a stepwise logistic regression model was applied to the population data set. The district board, time of the accident, driver's gender, vehicle type, road type, speed limit and the number of vehicles involved are significant factors influencing the injury severity. Identification of risk factors for severe traffic accidents provides valuable information to help with new and improved road safety control measures.     

The association of rainfall and other weather variables with road traffic volume in Melbourne, Australia

An investigation into the effect of weather variables on traffic flow at a site in Melbourne, Australia, for the period 1989-1996 was performed. Rainfall was the strongest correlated weather parameter and it had the greatest impact in winter and spring, when traffic volume is reduced on wet days. There are statistically significant decreases of 1.35 and 2.11% in traffic volume on wet days in winter and spring. The reduction increases to 2-3% over the 2-10mm range, the largest being 3.43% for the 2-5mm class in spring. For the first time, our study considers separately daytime and nighttime periods. We found a reduction of 1.86% in winter and 2.16% in spring during daytime rainfall. The reduction at nighttime is significant over all seasons, ranging from 0.87% in winter to 2.91% in spring. We have explored an application where the traffic volume was used to normalise the road accident count and found the rain effect to increase by 2.4, 1.9 and 5.2% relative to the daily, daytime and nighttime dry mean accident count. Generally, the normalised count is greater than the raw count, with a larger increase for the higher rainfall classes.     

Severity of disability related to road traffic crashes in the Spanish adult population

BackgroundThe severity of disability related to road traffic crashes has been little studied, despite the significant health and socio-economic impacts that determine victims’ quality of life.ObjectiveTo estimate the consequences of road traffic crashes on the severity of disability, in terms of individuals’ capacity to execute activities and perform tasks in their current environment, using aids.MethodsCross-sectional study conducted on community-dwelling participants in the “2008 National Survey of Disability”, with data on 91,846 households having 20,425 disabled persons, 443 of whom had disability due to road traffic crashes. We measured severity using two indicators, i.e., the Capacity (CSI) and Performance (PSI) Severity Indices.ResultsThe highest proportion of disability was mild (CSI = 70.5%; PSI = 80.8%), while 7.6% (CSI) and 4.9% (PSI) was severe/complete respectively. The moderate/severe disability rate was 0.6 per thousand on the CSI, decreasing to 0.4 per thousand on the PSI. No differences were observed by age or sex. Moderate/severely disabled persons had a fourfold higher probability of being retired or unfit for work. Mental and nervous system impairments were more closely related to moderate/severe/complete problems of capacity and performance (p < 0.001), disability for carrying out general tasks and demands, and interpersonal interactions and relationships (p < 0.001). Being permanently bedridden (p < 0.001), receiving aids (p < 0.001), family support (p < 0.05) and moving home (p < 0.05) increased with an increase in the level of severity.ConclusionRoad traffic crashes mainly cause mild disability. Moderate/severe disability is associated with lower work capacity, greater functional dependence, and increased need of aids, moving home and family support.     

Temporal variations in road traffic fatalities in South Africa

The annual road traffic fatality (RTF) burden of 43 deaths per 100 000 inhabitants in South Africa (SA) is disproportionately high in comparison to the world average of 22 per 100 000 population. Recent research revealed strong geographical variations across district councils in the country, as well as a substantial peak in mortality occurring during December. In this study, the factors that explain temporal variations in RTFs in SA are examined. Using weekly data from the period 2002–2006 for the country's nine provinces, non-linear auto-regression exogenous (NARX) regression models were fitted to explain variations in RTFs and to assess the degree to which the variations between the provinces were associated with the temporal variations in risk factors. Results suggest that a proportion of the variations in weekly RTFs could be explained by factors other than the size of the province population, with both temporal and between-province residual variance remaining after accounting for the modelled risks. Policies directed at reducing the effects of the modifiable risks identified in our study will be important in reducing RTFs in SA.     

Analysis of traffic injury severity: an application of non-parametric classification tree techniques

Statistical regression models, such as logit or ordered probit/logit models, have been widely employed to analyze injury severity of traffic accidents. However, most regression models have their own model assumptions and pre-defined underlying relationships between dependent and independent variables. If these assumptions are violated, the model could lead to erroneous estimations of injury likelihood. The classification and regression tree (CART), one of the most widely applied data mining techniques, has been commonly employed in business administration, industry, and engineering. CART does not require any pre-defined underlying relationship between target (dependent) variable and predictors (independent variables) and has been shown to be a powerful tool, particularly for dealing with prediction and classification problems. This study uses the 2001 accident data for Taipei, Taiwan. A CART model was developed to establish the relationship between injury severity and driver/vehicle characteristics, highway/environmental variables and accident variables. The results indicate that the most important variable associated with crash severity is the vehicle type. Pedestrians, motorcycle and bicycle riders are identified to have higher risks of being injured than other types of vehicle drivers in traffic accidents.     

The economic costs of road traffic crashes: Australia, states and territories

In this paper, we obtain detailed data on road traffic crash (RTC) casualties, by severity, for each of the eight state and territory jurisdictions for Australia and use these to estimate and compare the economic impact of RTCs across these regions. We show that the annual cost of RTCs in Australia, in 2003, was approximately $17b, which is approximately 2.3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Importantly, though, there is remarkable intra-national variation in the incident rates of RTCs in Australia and costs range from approximately 0.62 to 3.63% of Gross State Product (GSP). The paper makes two fundamental contributions: (i) it provides a detailed breakdown of estimated RTC casualties, by state and territory regions in Australia, and (ii) it presents the first sub-national breakdown of RTC costs for Australia. We trust that these contributions will assist policy-makers to understand sub-national variations in the road toll better and will encourage further research on the causes of the marked differences between RTC outcomes across the states and territories of Australia.     

Estimating non-fatal road casualties in a large French county, using the capture-recapture method

INTRODUCTION: Non-fatal road casualties are under-reported, with official figures coming from the police. In the French Rh?ne county, a road trauma registry constitutes a second source of reporting but its completeness needs to be assessed. We also wish to estimate an incidence rate of non-fatal road casualties that is corrected for under-count. METHODS: Having two sources of reporting available, we can apply the capture-recapture method under certain conditions. To take into account different reporting probabilities among casualties, the capture-recapture analysis is stratified according to injury severity (New Injury Severity Score=NISS), road user type and human third party. To evaluate the sensitivity of the capture-recapture estimate on the number of matched casualties between the police file and the registry, three scenarios of record-linkage are considered. RESULTS: For serious (NISS 9+) non-fatal road casualties, the police ascertainment rate is at most 57%, the registry ascertainment rate is at most 87%, and the aggregate ascertainment rate is at most 95%. The ascertainment-corrected incidence rate for serious (NISS 9+) non-fatal road casualties is at least 65 per 100,000. CONCLUSION: The degree of completeness of the registry for serious casualties is rather high, though not satisfactory.     

A multinomial logit analysis of risk factors influencing road traffic injury severities in the Erzurum and Kars Provinces of Turkey

A retrospective cross-sectional study is conducted analysing 11,771 traffic accidents reported by the police between January 2008 and December 2013 which are classified into three injury severity categories: fatal, injury, and no injury. Based on this classification, a multinomial logit analysis is performed to determine the risk factors affecting the severity of traffic injuries. The estimation results reveal that the following factors increase the probability of fatal injuries: drivers over the age of 65; primary-educated drivers; single-vehicle accidents; accidents occurring on state routes, highways or provincial roads; and the presence of pedestrian crosswalks. The results also indicate that accidents involving cars or private vehicles or those occurring during the evening peak, under clear weather conditions, on local city streets or in the presence of traffic lights decrease the probability of fatal injuries. This study comprises the most comprehensive database ever created for a Turkish sample. This study is also the first attempt to use an unordered response model to determine risk factors influencing the severity of traffic injuries in Turkey.     

Psychosocial correlates of the impact of road traffic accidents among South African drivers and passengers

The aim of the study was to investigate the psychosocial consequences and coping strategies among accident victims in South Africa. Participants (138 drivers and 141 passengers) who had been involved in a road traffic accident were approached and interviewed in public places. In both groups the median age group was between 25 years and 34 years. In 34 accidents (12.2%) a family member was killed, in 68 accidents (24.4%) a non-family member was killed in the accident. In 272 accidents 197 (72.4%) persons (both drivers and passengers) were injured and 168 (61.7%) were hospitalized. Eighty-seven drivers (63%) did not perceive themselves at fault and 51 (37%) did. Following the road traffic accident both drivers and passengers showed a significant decline of their well-being. Drivers who perceived themselves to be at fault did not cope better than those not perceiving themselves at fault. Passengers related to the drivers showed more decline in their well-being than those not related. Path analysis for drivers found that holding oneself responsible had a direct, and mediated by self-blame, guilt and family distress, negative effect on personal well-being. In the passengers group, holding the driver or others responsible led, mediated by increased self-blame, feelings of guilt, and family distress, to lower psychological well-being (PWB). Findings have relevant implications for the development of coping strategies to aid victims of road traffic accidents in dealing with their trauma in this African context, which may differ to those in Western societies.     

Determinants of road traffic safety: New evidence from Australia using state-space analysis

This paper examines the determinants of road traffic crash fatalities in Queensland for the period 1958–2007 using a state-space time-series model. In particular, we investigate the effects of policies that aimed to reduce drink-driving on traffic fatalities, as well as indicators of the economic environment that may affect exposure to traffic, and hence affect the number of accidents and fatalities. The results show that the introduction of a random breath testing program in 1988 was associated with a 11.3% reduction in traffic fatalities; its expansion in 1998 was associated with a 26.2% reduction in traffic fatalities; and the effect of the “Safe4life” program, which was introduced in 2004, was a 14.3% reduction in traffic fatalities. Reductions in economic activity are also associated with reductions in road fatalities: we estimate that a one percent increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a 0.2% reduction in traffic fatalities.     

Road traffic injury incidence and crash characteristics in Dar es Salaam: A population based study

Road traffic injuries (RTI) are a public health threat and a major source of disability in developing countries. A population-based analysis of RTIs in a testimonially high-risk area of Dar es Salaam, the largest city in the East African country of Tanzania, was carried out with the goal of establishing an RTI incidence and to identify RTI characteristics that may be used for a targeted injury prevention program in these communities.