从世界能源统计数据看中国能源现状

本文根据BP2005年度世界能源统计数据,系统介绍了中国石油、天然气和煤炭的储量、产量以及一次能源(石油、天然气、煤炭、水电和核能)消费状况,并与世界进行了对比。     

欧洲能源消费构成变化的启示

30余年来欧洲一次能源消费构成有了重大变化,石油、煤炭比例大幅度降低,天然气大幅度上升,核电明显上升。这些变化主要在上世纪末完成,且不同国家间有适合各自国情的差别。能源构成的优化促进了能源安全和环保,但天然气的大量进口也带来若干负面影响。受此启发,我国在能源构成优化中应强调适合自己的国情。从全国看应发展洁净煤炭,大力节油,能源构成应以煤、油、气、核电和水电等基础能源为主体,多种可再生能源和新能源为补充;从各地区看应强调因地制宜。     

洁净煤技术及其在我国能源消费结构调整中的作用

通过分析我国现行能源生产与消费现状,可发现我国煤炭资源丰富,但煤炭作为终端能源的消费比例过高,燃煤质量普遍低下,燃煤技术普遍落后,引起大气和地面严重污染,已在很大程度上影响和制约了国民经济的发展;随着国民经济的发展。近些年我国石油消费量不断增加,石油供需矛盾日益突出,进口依存度已达 30％,外汇支付压力越来越大,石油安全问题已涉及国家能源安全;天然气从长远看也满足不了需求。因此,我国能源发展应立足于国内资源,以煤炭为基础,多元化发展高效、清洁能源。洁净煤技术可有效提高煤炭效率,减少粉尘和 SO2污染,有利于调整产业结构和技术结构,有利于国民经济的可持续发展。     

Nuclear production of hydrogen development in the Federal Republic of Germany

For a long time hydrogen has been used in industry and today is mainly produced from hydrocarbons. Hydrogen is used in the gas supply, chemical industry, oil industry and in the metallurgical industry. Hydrogen obtained from nuclear energy can contribute to the future energy supply as well as take over functions which today are filled by natural gas and mineral oil.Based on these properties, and under the assumption of economical production, hydrogen can attain a wide spectrum of uses, especially as an energy carrier for heat supply in industry, and for household and private consumption; as a raw material for the chemical industry, for the synthesis of hydrocarbons and for the production of ammonia; as hydrogen in the oil industry and for coal reprocessing; as a reducing agent in the metallurgical industry (especially in the steel industry); and as a fuel for transportation (mainly for aircraft). The actual methods for production of hydrogen and the methods for the refinement of coal make linking with nuclear energy possible by the allocation of the process energies necessary for the process of conversion. These are mainly process steam and process heat.A further possibility for the production of hydrogen is the thermochemical process. In this process the feeds are water and nuclear energy, the products are hydrogen and oxygen. The nuclear energy is used in the form of high-temperature heat, for example from high-temperature reactors. The process is comprised of a series of chemical reactions, which represent in total the reaction of water splitting.     

Alternatives to OPEC oil: Investment costs and financing prospects

Alternative forms of energy will have to supply an increasing share of the world market, in view of the restricted supply of OPEC oil. The prospects for the alternatives depend on their investment costs relative to the expected price of OPEC oil, and on oil demand, which will be affected by conservation. A wide variety of projects are going forward for the development of non-OPEC oil, gas, coal and nuclear power, as well as renewable energy resources. Investment costs and the demand for external finance are within the capacity of world financial markets.     

宁波应成为长江三角洲地区的能源基地

随着长江三角洲地区经济的快速发展,能源供需矛盾越来越突出。虽然西气东输、东海油气田开发和西电东送工程将在一定程度上缓解长江三角洲地区的能源供需矛盾,但仍需要通过港口输入大量能源,发电装机容量也需要大大增加,这样,很有必要在长江三角洲地区选择一个条件最好的港口城市,建立能源输入和转运基地,宁波应是首选。根据宁波的自然地理和经济条件,借鉴国外的经验,我们认为宁波应建设成为石油化工基地、石油中转和储备基地、东海油气田开发的处理、加工、输配和后勤服务基地、LPG接收和转运基地、LNG接收和转运基地、煤炭接收和转运基地及电力生产和供应基地,并配合上海建立石油交易市场。     

Correlation between Chinese and international energy prices based on a HP filter and time difference analysis

To establish a reasonable system and mechanism for Chinese energy prices, we use the Granger causality test, Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter and time difference analysis to research the pricing relationship between Chinese and international energy prices. We find that Chinese and international crude oil prices changed synchronously while Chinese refined oil prices follow the changes of international oil prices with the time difference being about 1 month to 2 months. Further, Australian coal prices Granger causes Chinese coal prices, and there is a high correlation between them. The U.S. electricity price is influenced by the WTI crude oil price, the U.S. gasoline price and the HenryHub gas price. Due to the unreasonable price-setting mechanism and regulation from the central government, China′s terminal market prices for both electricity and natural gas do not reflect the real supply–demand situation. This paper provides quantitative results on the correlation between Chinese and international energy prices to better predict the impact of international energy price fluctuations on China′s domestic energy supply and guide the design of more efficient energy pricing policies. Moreover, it provides references for developing countries to improve their energy market systems and trading, and to coordinate domestic and international energy markets.     

中国及世界一次能源消费结构现状分析

根据《2012年BP世界能源统计年鉴》的数据,按照能源种类,分析研究了世界和中国的石油、天然气、煤炭等传统一次能源消费情况,同时对核能、水电、可再生能源的消费量进行了统计分析.通过分析比较,对中国能源消费趋势作出了预测.预计到2030年,中国能源消费占世界能源总消费量的比重将上升至27%.为了缓解中国目前巨大的能源和环境压力,提出了几点建议,包括:研究煤炭的清洁利用技术,开发非常规油气资源和发展可再生能源.     

世界能源开发利用现状和格局

本文从储量、产量和消费量三方面,介绍了世界各大区和主要国家的能源储量、产量和消费量,分析了世界主要能源(油气、煤炭、核能、水电)开发利用现状和格局,并指出了中国能源在世界的地位。     

我国能源科技发展思路

能源是国民经济和社会发展的不可缺少的生产要素和物质基础。当前我国正处在工业化过程中,能源科技的发展将强有力的支撑国家能源安全。我国已成为世界能源生产和消费大国,预测2020年中国一次能源的需求为29亿tce,有可能继续实现能源翻一番,GDP翻两番。根据我国资源情况及国内外形势,笔者提出"节能优先,以煤为主,保障安全,多元发展"的可持续发展能源战略。能源科技发展的思路主要包括:要坚决贯彻节能优先的方针,加强煤炭的清洁、高效开发与利用研究,加强以油气为主的能源安全保障体系研究,实施多元化科技发展战略。据此战略思路,最后笔者尝试性的提出能源科技方面重点研究方向。     

中国电力可持续发展的出路和方向

中国2008年能源消费总量28．5×10^8t标煤,其中煤炭消费量27．4×10^8t,原油消费量3．6×110^8t,天然气消费量807×10^8m^3．电力消费量34502×10^8kW·h。中国电力工业在节能减排的推动下发展,2008年全国供电单耗349g标煤／（kW·h）,同比下降7g标煤／（kW·h）,线损率6．64％,同比下降0．33个百分点,关停小火电1669×10^4kW。2009年国家能源新政给电力行业发展带来新的契机,2009年电力投资5800亿元,电力工业结构调整列在2009年中国能源新政任务的首位。中同新能源发电已进入全新发展期：核电将成为取代常规火电的主力军;风电潜力大,发展速度惊人,但问题也不少：水电发电量居世界第一,但仍存在制约水电发展的问题;太阳能光伏发电发展迅速,前景看好。     

中国能源安全预警指标框架体系设计

中国的能源消费在过去几年间迅速增长,各主要能源品种都出现了一定程度的供不应求,这不仅给国内的能源供应安全保障体系带来了沉重的压力,而且已经引起国际社会的普遍关注。能源是保障中国经济的源动力,能源系统出现微小的波动都有可能对经济系统产生重要的影响,因此,我国有必要建立一个能源安全预警系统,为实现稳定、可靠、安全、清洁、经济的能源供应提供保障。中国能源安全预警系统的关键是建立中国能源安全预警的指标框架体系,本文介绍了在开发中国能源安全预警系统中针对指标框架的研究结果。     

我国能源安全的内涵界定——基于“十五”期间统计数据的分析

通过对“十五”期间能源平衡表及相关数据的分析,发现我国的国家能源安全问题实际上是煤炭的供需平衡问题。进一步的研究揭示,我国的国家能源安全的内涵首先表现为煤炭的供应链安全,即铁路的煤炭运输安全;其次才表现为石油的供应链安全。我国的能源安全内涵在基本面上表现出与国外不同的特征,主要由以煤为主的能源结构和铁路运力不足造成的。     

Hidden biases in Australian energy policy

The challenges in developing technology for the capture and storage of CO₂ from coal, oil and gas power generation, as well as those associated with the storage of nuclear waste, are widely regarded as solvable. According to proponents of clean coal, oil and gas technologies, as well as the proponents of nuclear technology, it is only a matter of time and resources to find a solution to their waste problems. Similarly, the Australian Government argues that our main efforts need to be concentrated on clean coal technologies, as well as considering the nuclear option. However, when it comes to the challenges associated with renewable energy technologies, like intermittency of wind generated grid power, storage of electricity from renewable energy and so on, there seems to be an attitude amongst Australian energy planners that these challenges represent insurmountable technical and financial problems, and will, at least in the short to medium term, prevent them from becoming a viable alternative to coal, oil, gas and uranium based energy technologies.     

我国能源现状及某些重要战略对策

进入21世纪,中国能源面临着5大严峻挑战:能源供应紧张;液体燃料短缺;环境污染严重;温室气体排放;农村和城镇清洁能源供应等,严重制约了我国的可持续发展。我国以煤为主的能源格局仍将持续,控制能源生产和消费总量,节能减排,提高能源的综合利用效率,大力发展现代煤化工、可再生能源以及核能是我国能源发展的重要趋势。本文提出以煤气化为核心的多联产系统是我国能源发展的战略方向,各种能源(化石能源和可再生能源)都应在广义能源系统中找到"合适的位置"。     

When will fossil fuel reserves be diminished?

Crude oil, coal and gas are the main resources for world energy supply. The size of fossil fuel reserves and the dilemma that “when non-renewable energy will be diminished” is a fundamental and doubtful question that needs to be answered. This paper presents a new formula for calculating when fossil fuel reserves are likely to be depleted and develops an econometrics model to demonstrate the relationship between fossil fuel reserves and some main variables. The new formula is modified from the Klass model and thus assumes a continuous compound rate and computes fossil fuel reserve depletion times for oil, coal and gas of approximately 35, 107 and 37 years, respectively. This means that coal reserves are available up to 2112, and will be the only fossil fuel remaining after 2042. In the Econometrics model, the main exogenous variables affecting oil, coal and gas reserve trends are their consumption and respective prices between 1980 and 2006. The models for oil and gas reserves unexpectedly show a positive and significant relationship with consumption, while presenting a negative and significant relationship with price. The econometrics model for coal reserves, however, expectedly illustrates a negative and significant relationship with consumption and a positive and significant relationship with price. Consequently, huge reserves of coal and low-level coal prices in comparison to oil and gas make coal one of the main energy substitutions for oil and gas in the future, under the assumption of coal as a clean energy source.     

Approach and potential of replacing oil and natural gas with coal in China

China’s fossil energy is characterized by an abundance of coal and a relative lack of oil and natural gas. Developing a strategy in which coal can replace oil and natural gas is, therefore, a necessary and practical approach to easing the excessive external dependence on oil and natural gas. Based on the perspective of energy security, this paper proposes a technical framework for defining the substitution of oil and natural gas with coal in China. In this framework, three substitution classifications and 11 industrialized technical routes are reviewed. Then, three scenarios (namely, the cautious scenario, baseline scenario, and positive scenario) are developed to estimate the potential of this strategy for 2020 and 2030. The results indicate that oil and natural gas replaced by coal will reach 67 to 81 Mt and 8.7 to 14.3 Gm³ in 2020 and reach 93 to 138 Mt and 32.3 to 47.3 Gm³ in 2030, respectively. By implementing this strategy, China’s external dependence on oil, natural gas, and primary energy is expected to be curbed at approximately 70%, 40%, and 20% by 2030, respectively. This paper also demonstrates how coal, as a substitute for oil and natural gas, can contribute to carbon and pollution reduction and economic cost savings. It suggests a new direction for the development of the global coal industry and provides a crucial reference for energy transformation in China and other countries with similar energy situations.     

Energy projections — Oil,natural gas and coal in the USSR and Eastern Europe

There have been many projections of energy supply and demand for the USSR and Eastern Europe, but little agreement on future trends. In this article George Hoffman assembles a variety of published forecasts of Soviet and Eastern European energy production, consumption, imports and exports. This allows comparison of the available data sources and illustrates the range of estimates for gas, coal, oil and nuclear power. The author also outlines the Soviet and Eastern European energy resource base and provides an extensive bibliography.     

日本大地震对全球能源发展产生的影响

2011年北京时间3月11日,日本东北部宫城县以东太平洋海域发生里氏9级特大地震并引发海啸.分析了此次地震、海啸及核泄漏对全球能源的影响:民众反对发展核电站的声音将可能更多,各国政府在核电利用问题上更为谨慎与保守.中短期内核电将较难实现大幅增长.短期而言,对核电有效替代的仍是化石能源,能源需求增长将进一步加大全球一次能源价格的上涨压力.长期而言,发达国家的替代选择更倾向于可再生能源,这种转换有助于较快地实现全球低碳转型.指出此次地震对中国油气供应影响不大.提出中国迫切需要建立较为灵活的能源安全预警防范机制,以适应由于能源供应短缺带来的种种问题.     

Energy R&D A UK perspective

Energy R & D is essential for countries wishing to lessen their dependence on imported oil and to widen their long-term options for energy policy. Accepting that energy R & D must be viewed in an international context, Mr Surrey and Mr Walker review the UK coal, gas, oil, nuclear and electricity supply industries' programmes, examine the role of government and suggest guidelines for a national strategy. They call for more positive direction of energy R & D by the Government in order to balance the interests of the nationalised fuel industries where they conflict or overlap, and to ensure consistency of energy R & D policy with industrial policies.