Biomass gasification in district heating systems – The effect of economic energy policies

Biomass gasification is considered a key technology in reaching targets for renewable energy and CO₂ emissions reduction. This study evaluates policy instruments affecting the profitability of biomass gasification applications integrated in a Swedish district heating (DH) system for the medium-term future (around year 2025). Two polygeneration applications based on gasification technology are considered in this paper: (1) a biorefinery plant co-producing synthetic natural gas (SNG) and district heat; (2) a combined heat and power (CHP) plant using integrated gasification combined cycle technology. Using an optimisation model we identify the levels of policy support, here assumed to be in the form of tradable certificates, required to make biofuel production competitive to biomass based electricity generation under various energy market conditions. Similarly, the tradable green electricity certificate levels necessary to make gasification based electricity generation competitive to conventional steam cycle technology, are identified. The results show that in order for investment in the SNG biorefinery to be competitive to investment in electricity production in the DH system, biofuel certificates in the range of 24–42 EUR/MWh are needed. Electricity certificates are not a prerequisite for investment in gasification based CHP to be competitive to investment in conventional steam cycle CHP, given sufficiently high electricity prices. While the required biofuel policy support is relatively insensitive to variations in capital cost, the required electricity certificates show high sensitivity to variations in investment costs. It is concluded that the large capital commitment and strong dependency on policy instruments makes it necessary that DH suppliers believe in the long-sightedness of future support policies, in order for investments in large-scale biomass gasification in DH systems to be realised.     

Energy efficiency investments in Kraft pulp mills given uncertain climate policy

Energy efficiency measures in pulp mills can potentially reduce the consumption of biofuel, which can instead be exported and used elsewhere. In this paper a methodology is proposed for analysing the robustness of energy efficiency investments in Kraft pulp mills or other industrial process plants equipped with biofuelled combined heat and power units, given uncertain future climate policy. The outlook for biofuel and electricity prices is a key factor for deciding if energy efficiency measures are cost competitive. CO ₂ emission charges resulting from climate policy are internalized and thus included in electricity and biofuel prices. The proposed methodology includes a price-setting model for biofuel that assumes a constant price ratio between biofuel and electricity in the Nordic countries. Thirteen energy efficiency retrofit measures are analysed for an existing Swedish Kraft pulp mill. Special attention is paid to heat-integrated evaporation using excess process heat. Four possible energy market development paths are considered that reflect different climate policies. Pulp mill energy efficiency investments considered are shown to be robust with respect to uncertain climate policy. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sustainability of algal biofuel production using integrated renewable energy park (IREP) and algal biorefinery approach

Algal biomass can provide viable third generation feedstock for liquid transportation fuel. However, for a mature commercial industry to develop, sustainability as well as technological and economic issues pertinent to algal biofuel sector must be addressed first. This viewpoint focuses on three integrated approaches laid out to meet these challenges. Firstly, an integrated algal biorefinery for sequential biomass processing for multiple high-value products is delineated to bring in the financial sustainability to the algal biofuel production units. Secondly, an integrated renewable energy park (IREP) approach is proposed for amalgamating various renewable energy industries established in different locations. This would aid in synergistic and efficient electricity and liquid biofuel production with zero net carbon emissions while obviating numerous sustainability issues such as productive usage of agricultural land, water, and fossil fuel usage. A ‘renewable energy corridor’ rich in multiple energy sources needed for algal biofuel production for deploying IREPs in the United States is also illustrated. Finally, the integration of various industries with algal biofuel sector can bring a multitude of sustainable deliverables to society, such as renewable supply of cheap protein supplements, health products and aquafeed ingredients. The benefits, challenges, and policy needs of the IREP approach are also discussed.     

化石能源补贴政策对分布式发电技术投资影响研究

为降低能源密集型产业的能源单耗、降低能源强度,需对能源补贴政策进行优化,在能源补贴政策发生变化后,微电网分布式发电技术投资结构将发生变化。从传统发电与可再生能源分布式发电技术的角度分析了减少化石能源补贴对微电网分布式发电技术投资的影响程度。根据经济、技术及环境指标运用多层次决策(MADM)法对能源补贴减少前后的各种微电网分布式发电技术的效益和成本进行了计算,并与化石能源投资成本进行了对比。算例分析结果表明,削减化石能源补贴可增加微电网分布式发电技术的投资份额,改善环境质量。     

Impacts of policy means for increased use of forest-based bioenergy in Norway—A spatial partial equilibrium analysis

Like the European Union (EU), Norway has defined quite ambitious targets regarding increased use of bioenergy. However, the bioenergy market develops relatively slowly, and stronger policies seem necessary to reach the targets. This study analyses how different policy means, high on the agenda in the Norwegian energy debate, may affect the use of forest-based bioenergy in Norway. The means studied are (i) subsidies reducing investment costs of district heating installations, (ii) deposit grant for replacement of oil burners with burners based on bioenergy (iii) feed-in supporting energy production in district heating based on bioenergy. The study is based on a regionalised partial equilibrium model covering forestry, forest industries and the bioenergy sector. The advantage of this methodology is that it allows for assessments of the economic potential of bioenergy under different policy alternatives, taking into account the competition for raw materials from the forest industries, regional differences regarding heat demand and wood fibre supply, as well as important spatial aspects connected to inter-regional transport and trade of wood.

The results of the study give medium-term projections for bioenergy use in Norway under different bioenergy policy regimes. Some investments in bioburners in central heating systems and new district heating based on bioenergy are profitable at the current energy prices, but policy incentives in terms of grants, subsidies or feed-in systems make it possible to overcome inertia in investments decisions and provide substantial increase in the supply of bioenergy. The results show that the analysed policy means are effective at the current energy price levels and have a significant impact on bioenergy production. While some results are specific to Norway, other results and the methodology used are of more general value also to other European countries.     

Impacts of a United States’ biofuel policy on New Zealand's agricultural sector

The rise in oil prices has spurred interest in biofuels. Policies in the United States like the renewable fuel standard (RFS) have led to an expansion of ethanol production, while the New Zealand government has mandated a minimum level of biofuel sales.The research used a partial equilibrium model of international trade to quantify the price and farmgate income effects of the US RFS policy. The goal was to examine the competition between food and biofuel production and to quantify the impact of the policy on the agricultural sector in New Zealand.The RFS policy has a significant impact on corn prices, but a small effect on livestock prices and production. There thus appears to be little conflict between food and fuel uses for corn at the level of the RFS mandate. New Zealand's pasture-based livestock sector benefits from the use of corn for ethanol production: it receives better prices for its products, but does not face the same input cost increases as competitors. The results suggest that New Zealand faces an interesting decision: it could support investment in biofuels research, or benefit from the biofuels boom through the indirect impacts on demand and prices for meat and milk.     

Economic potential of energy-efficient retrofitting in the Swiss residential building sector: The effects of policy instruments and energy price expectations

The aim of this paper is to analyse the profitability of energy-efficient retrofit investments in the Swiss residential building sector from the house owner's perspective. Different energy price expectations, policy instruments such as subsidies, income tax deduction and a carbon tax, as well as potential future cost degression of energy efficiency measures were taken into account. The discounted cash flow method was used for the investment analysis of different retrofit packages applied to a model building scheduled for renovation, i.e. a single-family house constructed between 1948 and 1975. The results show that present Swiss policy instruments push investments for energy-efficient retrofitting to profitability. Cost degression has a minor significance for investment profitability. However, the most relevant factor for the investment analysis is the expected energy price. Expecting a future fuel oil price at the level of 2005, efficiency investments are close to profitability even without policy support. If higher energy prices were expected, energy-efficient retrofitting would be an attractive investment opportunity.     

Comparison of fixed versus variable biofuels incentives

We evaluated several variants of a variable biofuel subsidy and compared them with the fixed subsidy and Renewable Fuel Standard using two different modeling approaches. First we used a partial equilibrium model encompassing crude oil, gasoline, ethanol, corn, and ethanol by-products. Second, we used a stochastic simulation model of a prototypical ethanol plant. From the partial equilibrium analysis, it appears the variable subsidy provides a safety net for ethanol producers when oil prices are low; yet, it does not put undue pressure on corn prices when oil prices are high. At high oil prices, the level of ethanol production is driven by market forces. From the plant level stochastic analysis, essentially the same conclusions are reached. As with the fixed subsidy, the variable subsidy can increase the net present value (NPV) sufficiently to encourage investment, but with lower risk for the producer, lower probability of a loss from the investment, and often lower expected cost to government. Finally, in the US, the ethanol industry is up against a blending limit called the blend wall. If the blending wall remains in place and no way around it is found, it does not matter much what other policy options are used.     

Incentivizing wood-based Fischer–Tropsch diesel through financial policy instruments: An economic assessment for Norway

The objective of this study is to evaluate a select set of financial incentive instruments that can be employed by the Norwegian government for encouraging early investment and production experience in wood-based Fischer–Tropsch diesel (FTD) technologies as a means to accelerate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) stemming from road-based transport. We start by performing an economic analysis of FTD produced from Norwegian forest biomass at a pioneer commercial plant in Norway, followed with a cost growth analysis to estimate production costs after uncertainty in early plant performance and capital cost estimates are considered. Results after the cost growth analysis imply that the initial production cost estimates for a pioneer producer may be underestimated by up to 30%. Using the revised estimate we then assess, through scenarios, how various financial support mechanisms designed to encourage near-term investment would affect production costs over a range of uncertain future oil prices. For all policy scenarios considered, we evaluate trade-offs between the levels of public expenditure, or subsidy, and private investor profitability. When considering the net present value of the subsidy required to incentivize commercial investment during a future of low oil prices, we find that GHG mitigation via wood-FTD is likely to be considered cost-ineffective. However, should the government expect that mean oil prices in the coming two decades will hover between $97 and 127/bbl, all the incentive policies considered would likely spur investment at net present values ≤$-100/tonne-fossil-CO₂-equivalent avoided.     

Economic analysis of sector coupling business models: Application on green hydrogen use cases

Sector coupling will play a key role in the future energy system to realise greenhouse gas emission reductions. A major factor will be green hydrogen based on renewable energies to defossilise consumption sectors. Related business models of power to gas are not yet implemented on the market. However, given the urgency of the change, this is essential.This paper investigates hydrogen business models under current market conditions of high power prices, no existing market for green hydrogen and the given regulatory framework with no levies for green hydrogen production in the German market. For this purpose, an open-source business model evaluation tool for sector coupling, which enables a simple and generic evaluation of sector coupling business models including production and possible transportation infrastructure, is developed and applied. Furthermore, the impact of changes of the input parameters like power prices and the influence of regulatory changes on profitability are assessed.The results show that X-to-power business cases can be already profitable due to high power prices on the wholesale market. However, power-to-X business models like hydrogen production still have negative net present values and the net present value is worsened when infrastructure for hydrogen transportation is considered. Key parameters for the negative result are investment costs and low hydrogen prices. Nevertheless, it must be considered that higher hydrogen prices have a negative impact on the X-to-power business model. To allow for profitable business cases, the market conditions need to be adjusted to ensure sufficiently high prices for green hydrogen. Furthermore, subsidies on investment or operational and maintenance costs can support the integration of power-to-X into the market. Transportation infrastructure has a significant impact on profitability. Given these facts, it is necessary to create the required framework conditions to ensure the realisation of sector coupling.     

Assessing the value of pulp mill biomass savings in a climate change conscious economy

Pulp mills use significant amounts of biofuels, both internal and purchased. Biofuels could contribute to reach greenhouse gas emission targets at competitive costs. Implementing process integration measures at a pulp mill in order to achieve pulp production with less use of energy (biofuels) has not only on-site consequences but also off-site consequences, such as substitution of fossil fuels elsewhere by the saved pulp mill biofuels, and less on-site electric power generation. In this paper a method, a linking model, is suggested to analyse pulp mill biofuel saving measures when carbon dioxide (CO₂) external costs are internalised. The linking model is based on equilibrium economics and links information from CO₂ constrained energy market future scenarios with process integration measures. Pulp mill economics and marginal energy market CO₂ response are identified. In an applied study, four process integration measures at a Swedish pulp mill were analysed using five energy market future scenarios emanating from a Nordic energy model. The investigated investment alternatives for biofuel savings all result in positive net annual savings, irrespectively of the scenario used. However, CO₂ emissions may increase or decrease depending on the future development of the Nordic energy market.     

Renewable energy in the Lithuanian heating sector

The paper analyses the role of renewable energy sources (RES) in the Lithuanian heating sector and the existing support measures. RES consumption has been continuously growing in Lithuania. During the period of 2000–2009, RES used for heat production in the district heating sector increased more than 4 times. Wood and wood products have been the most widely used RES for heat production (RES-H). The lower prices were one of the main reasons which motivated district heating companies to switch fuel to biomass. At the same time subsidies, soft loans, EU Structural Funds for 2007–2013 and some fiscal measures, which are currently available for RES-H promotion, also have some impact on the increase of RES consumption. However, seeking to achieve a 23% national RES target, additional support measures are essential. A qualitative analysis based on the selected set of criteria and consultation with stakeholders showed that energy policy package for RES promotion in the Lithuanian heating sector could encompass the following measures: tax relieves (differentiated VAT and personal income tax breaks), subsidies, soft loans, standardization, support for research, development and demonstration. These measures are market-oriented and meet cost efficiency and low transaction costs criteria.     

Food-energy-environment trilemma: Policy impacts on farmland use and biofuel industry development

We present a game-theoretic model to analyze the role of two major biofuel policies in the U.S., namely mandates and subsidies, and their implications to biofuel industry development. By characterizing the farmers' land use decision (land allocation among food, energy, and reservation) and biofuel firm's mandate compliance strategy (whether to comply with the mandate or not), we identify the complementarity roles of mandate and subsidy. We further illustrate the impact of coordination in the two policy instruments; lack of coordination may result in excessive biofuel mandate in the early stage of industry development, while it may lead to insufficient mandate during the matured stage. With a case study based on the U.S. Midwest, we address recent trends in the U.S. biofuel industry and further discuss related policy insights.     

Assessing wood-based synthetic natural gas technologies using the SWISS-MARKAL model

In future, new biomass technologies can gain significant importance in the Swiss energy sector. Therefore, this paper assesses the economic conditions under which new biomass technologies become competitive. The focus of this assessment is on the production of synthetic natural gas (bio-SNG) from wood in a methanation plant. The assessment is conducted with the cost-optimization model SWISS-MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation). SWISS-MARKAL projects future technology investments and provides an integrated analysis of primary, secondary, final and end-use energy in Switzerland. In addition to a reference scenario, the effects of increasing oil and gas prices, the effects of allocating subsidies to the methanation plant and the effects of competition between the methanation plant and a biomass-based Fischer–Tropsch (FT) synthesis are evaluated. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is performed by varying investment costs of the methanation plant. The results are in favour of bio-SNG in the transportation sector where the synergetic use of bio-SNG and natural gas reduces the dependence on oil imports and the level of CO₂ emissions.     

Black liquor gasification—consequences for both industry and society

The pulp and paper industry consumes large quantities of biofuels to satisfy process requirements. Biomass is however a limited resource, to be used as effectively as possible. Modern pulping operations have excess internal fuels compared to the amounts needed to satisfy process steam demands. The excess fuel is often used for cogeneration of electric power. If market biofuel availability at a reasonable price is limited, import/export to/from a mill however changes the amount of such biofuel available for alternative users. This work compares different mill powerhouse technologies and CHP plant configurations (including conventional recovery boiler technology and black liquor gasification technology) with respect to electric power output from a given fuel resource. Different process steam demand levels for different representative mill types are considered. The comparison accounts for decreased/increased electricity production in an alternative energy system when biofuel is imported/exported to/from the mill. The results show that black liquor gasification is in all cases considered an attractive powerhouse recovery cycle technology. For moderate values of the marginal electric power generation efficiency for biofuel exported to the reference alternative energy system, excess mill internal biofuel should be used on mill site for gas turbine based CHP power generation. The remaining excess biofuels in market pulp mills should be exported and used in the reference alternative energy system in this case. For integrated pulp and paper mills, biofuel should be imported, but only for cogeneration usage (i.e. condensing power units should be avoided). If biofuel can be used elsewhere for high efficiency CHP power generation, mill internal biofuel should be used exclusively for process heating, and the remainder should be exported.     

Costs of meeting a cellulosic biofuel mandate with perennial energy crops: Implications for policy

We develop an analytical framework to examine the extent to which farmers' risk and time preferences, availability of credit to cover establishment cost, and subsidized crop insurance for conventional crops influence the decision to allocate land to a perennial energy crop and affect the costs of meeting a biofuel mandate using this crop as feedstock and its implications for the effectiveness of two alternative policies to supplement the mandate: an establishment cost subsidy and subsidized energy crop insurance. We examine the design of these policies to minimize the total (public and private) costs for meeting a one-billion-gallon biofuel mandate by using miscanthus as feedstock. We find that a high degree of risk aversion, high discount rate, credit constraint, and availability of crop insurance for conventional crops can increase the cost of producing enough biomass for a one-billion-gallon biofuel mandate by up to 43% and increase the land required by 16% as compared to otherwise; removal of subsidized crop insurance and credit constraints could lower these costs by 50%. We find that in most cases the cost-effective energy crop insurance subsidy rate is 0% whereas the cost-effective establishment cost subsidy rate is 100%. Relative to the case with no policy intervention for energy crops, energy crop insurance can reduce the total costs (net of government expenditures on subsidies) of meeting the 1 billion gallon mandate by 1.3% whereas establishment cost subsidy can reduce these costs by 34%.     

Comparison of black liquor gasification with other pulping biorefinery concepts – Systems analysis of economic performance and CO2 emissions

Black liquor gasification (BLG) is being developed as an alternative technology for energy and chemical recovery in kraft pulp mills. This study compares BLG – with downstream production of DME (dimethyl ether) or electricity – with recovery boiler-based pulping biorefinery concepts for different types of mills. The comparison is based on profitability as well as CO₂ emissions, using different future energy market scenarios. The possibility for carbon capture and storage (CCS) is considered. The results show that, if commercialised, BLG with DME production could be profitable for both market pulp mills and integrated pulp and paper mills in all energy market scenarios considered. Recovery boiler-based biorefinery concepts including extraction of lignin or solid biomass gasification with DME production could also be profitable for market and integrated mills, respectively. If the mill is located close to an infrastructure for CO₂ collection and transportation, CCS significantly improves profitability in scenarios with a high CO₂ emissions charge, for both combustion- and gasification-based systems. Concepts that include CCS generally show a large potential for reduction of global CO₂ emissions. Few of the concepts without CCS achieve a significant reduction of CO₂ emissions, especially for integrated mills.     

Avoiding adverse employment effects from electricity taxation in Norway: What does it cost?

Welfare analyses of energy taxes typically show that systems with uniform rates perform better than differentiated systems. However, most western countries include some exemptions for their energy-intensive export industries and thereby avoid this potential welfare gain. Böhringer and Rutherford (1997) find that uniform taxation of carbon emissions in combination with a wage subsidy preserves jobs in these industries at a lower welfare cost compared with a differentiated system. The wage subsidy scheme generates a substantial welfare gain per job saved. This study, however, finds that welfare costs are substantial when less accurate policy measures, represented by production-dependent subsidies, protect jobs in Norwegian electricity-intensive industries. The welfare cost per job preserved by this subsidy scheme amounts to approximately 60% of the wage cost per job, suggesting that these jobs are expensive to preserve. A uniform electricity tax combined with production-dependent subsidies preserves jobs at a lower welfare cost compared with the current differentiated electricity tax system.     

Oil consumption subsidy removal in OPEC and other Non-OECD countries: Oil market impacts and welfare effects

This paper studies the oil market effects of phasing out oil consumption subsidies in the transport sector. Welfare effects in different countries are also examined. The paper further investigates potential feedback mechanisms of oil subsidy removal via lower oil prices in the global oil market, which may stimulate oil consumption in other regions. An intertemporal numerical model of the international oil market is applied, where OPEC-Core producers have market power. The major subsidisers of oil are OPEC countries, and the effects of subsidy removal here are quite pronounced. Consumption of oil in the transport sector of OPEC countries declines significantly. As a result, the global oil price falls slightly, and other regions increase their oil consumption to some degree. Although OPEC consumers are worse off by the subsidy removal, total welfare in OPEC increases due to higher profits from oil production.     

Can the Nigerian biofuel policy and incentives (2007) transform Nigeria into a biofuel economy?

Nigeria's economy is largely dependent on petroleum, yet the country is suffering from fuel supply shortages. In response to the transportation fuel supply difficulties in Nigeria, the country released the Nigerian Biofuel Policy and Incentives in 2007 to create favorable investment climate for the entrance of Nigeria into the biofuel sector. The paper assessed the progress made thus far by Nigeria, 4 years after the Nigerian biofuel was released in an attempt to answer the question whether the policy is adequate to transform Nigeria into a biofuel economy. The study found that little progress has been made, which includes commencement of the construction of 20 bioethanol factories, installation of biofuel handling facilities at two depots (Mosimi and Atlas Cove), and selection of retail outlets for biofuel/conventional fuel mix. The site construction of the announced biofuel projects is now slow and other progress is marginal. We therefore conclude that the Nigerian biofuel policy is unlikely to transform Nigeria into a biofuel economy unless the Government revert and refocus on biofuel and include additional financial incentives such as grants and subsidy to complement the tax waivers (income, import duty, VAT), loans, and insurance cover contained in the policy.