Climate change and electricity consumption—Witnessing increasing or decreasing use and costs?

Climate change affects the need for heating and cooling. This paper examines the impact of gradually warming climate on the need for heating and cooling with an econometric multivariate regression model for five countries in Europe along the south–north line. The predicted changes in electricity demand are then used to analyze how climate change impacts the cost of electricity use, including carbon costs. Our main findings are, that in Central and North Europe, the decrease in heating due to climate warming, dominates and thus costs will decrease for both users of electricity and in carbon markets. In Southern Europe climate warming, and the consequential increase in cooling and electricity demand, overcomes the decreased need for heating. Therefore costs also increase. The main contributors are the role of electricity in heating and cooling, and the climatic zone.     

Assessment of projected temperature impacts from climate change on the U.S. electric power sector using the Integrated Planning Model®

This study analyzes the potential impacts of changes in temperature due to climate change on the U.S. power sector, measuring the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes due to temperature changes under two emissions trajectories—with and without emissions mitigation. It estimates the impact of temperature change on heating and cooling degree days, electricity demand, and generating unit output and efficiency. These effects are then integrated into a dispatch and capacity planning model to estimate impacts on investment decisions, emissions, system costs, and power prices for 32 U.S. regions. Without mitigation actions, total annual electricity production costs in 2050 are projected to increase 14% ($51 billion) because of greater cooling demand as compared to a control scenario without future temperature changes. For a scenario with global emissions mitigation, including a reduction in U.S. power sector emissions of 36% below 2005 levels in 2050, the increase in total annual electricity production costs is approximately the same as the increase in system costs to satisfy the increased demand associated with unmitigated rising temperatures.     

Heating and cooling energy demand and related emissions of the German residential building stock under climate change

The housing sector is a major consumer of energy. Studies on the future energy demand under climate change which also take into account future changes of the building stock, renovation measures and heating systems are still lacking. We provide the first analysis of the combined effect of these four influencing factors on the future energy demand for room conditioning of residential buildings and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Germany until 2060. We show that the heating energy demand will decrease substantially in the future. This shift will mainly depend on the number of renovated buildings and climate change scenarios and only slightly on demographic changes. The future cooling energy demand will remain low in the future unless the amount of air conditioners strongly increases. As a strong change in the German energy mix is not expected, the future GHG emissions caused by heating will mainly depend on the energy demand for future heating.     

Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change

In this article, we assess the potential development of energy use for future residential heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. In a reference scenario, global energy demand for heating is projected to increase until 2030 and then stabilize. In contrast, energy demand for air conditioning is projected to increase rapidly over the whole 2000–2100 period, mostly driven by income growth. The associated CO₂ emissions for both heating and cooling increase from 0.8 Gt C in 2000 to 2.2 Gt C in 2100, i.e. about 12% of total CO₂ emissions from energy use (the strongest increase occurs in Asia). The net effect of climate change on global energy use and emissions is relatively small as decreases in heating are compensated for by increases in cooling. However, impacts on heating and cooling individually are considerable in this scenario, with heating energy demand decreased by 34% worldwide by 2100 as a result of climate change, and air-conditioning energy demand increased by 72%. At the regional scale considerable impacts can be seen, particularly in South Asia, where energy demand for residential air conditioning could increase by around 50% due to climate change, compared with the situation without climate change.     

Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system—A case study of Norway

The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier.     

The impact of climate change on the electricity market: A review

Climate change will impact electricity markets through both electricity demand and supply. This paper reviews the research on this topic. Whereas there is much that remains unknown or uncertain, research over the last few years has significantly advanced our knowledge. In general, higher temperatures are expected to raise electricity demand for cooling, decrease demand for heating, and to reduce electricity production from thermal power plants. The effect of climate change on the supply of electricity from non-thermal sources shows great geographical variability due to differences in expected changes to temperature and precipitation. Whereas the research frontier has advanced significantly in the last few years, there still remains a significant need for more research in order to better understand the effects of climate change on the electricity market. Four significant gaps in the current research are regional studies of demand side impacts for Africa, Asia, the Caribbean and Latin America, the effects of extreme weather events on electricity generation, transmission and demand, changes to the adoption rate of air conditioning, and finally, our understanding of the sensitivity of thermal power supply to changes in air and water temperatures.     

Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland,USA

This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on natural gas, electricity and heating oil use by the residential and commercial sectors in the state of Maryland, USA. Time series analysis is used to quantify historical temperature–energy demand relationships. A dynamic computer model uses those relationships to simulate future energy demand under a range of energy prices, temperatures and other drivers. The results indicate that climate exerts a comparably small signal on future energy demand, but that the combined climate and non-climate-induced changes in energy demand may pose significant challenges to policy and investment decisions in the state.     

Energy efficient design of building: A review

Energy saving is a high-priority in developed countries. For this reason, energy-efficient measures are being increasingly implemented in all sectors. The residential sector is responsible for an important part of the energy consumption in the world. Most of this energy is used in heating, cooling, and artificial ventilation systems.With a view to developing energy-efficient structures, this article provides an overview of building design criteria that can reduce the energy demand for the heating and cooling of residential buildings. These criteria are based on the adoption of suitable parameters for building orientation, shape, envelope system, passive heating and cooling mechanisms, shading, and glazing. An analysis was made of previous studies that evaluated the influence of these parameters on the total energy demand and suggested the best design options. This study is useful for professionals who are responsible for decision-making during the design phase of energy-efficient residential buildings.     

Global climate change implications for coastal and offshore oil and gas development

The discussion and debate about climate change and oil and gas resource development has generally focused on how fossil fuel use affects the Earth's climate. This paper explores how the changing climate is likely to affect oil and gas operations in low-lying coastal areas and the outer continental shelf. Oil and gas production in these regions comprises a large sector of the economies of many energy producing nations. Six key climate change drivers in coastal and marine regions are characterized with respect to oil and gas development: changes in carbon dioxide levels and ocean acidity, air and water temperature, precipitation patterns, the rate of sea level rise, storm intensity, and wave regime. These key drivers have the potential to independently and cumulatively affect coastal and offshore oil and gas exploration, production, and transportation, and several impacts of climate change have already been observed in North America.     

Assessment of long-term sustainable end-use energy demand in Romania*

Romania is the 10th largest economy in EU-28 and also one of the fastest growing economies in the region. An end-use energy demand model is developed for Romania to assess energy requirement by sector and by end-use for 2015–2050 period. Industry would surpass residential sector as the largest final energy-consuming sector from 2035 onwards. Services sector would exhibit the fastest growth of energy consumption. Despite expected decline in country’s population, demand for electricity would grow in the future driven by increased household income and expanded services sector, which is relatively electricity intensive. Still, Romania’s per capita electricity consumption would be about half of the EU-28 average. At the end-use level, thermal processes in industry, space heating in the residential and services, and road passenger travel in transport sector would be dominant throughout the study period. Improvement of energy efficiency in the heating system exhibits the highest potential of energy saving.     

Model projections for household energy use in developing countries

The residential sector plays an important role in the energy system of developing countries. In this paper we introduce a bottom up simulation model for household energy use. The model describes energy demand for several end-use functions based on a set of physical drivers, such as floor space and heating degree days. The model also recognizes different population groups: i.e. urban and rural households, each distinguishing five income quintiles. The model is applied to analyze possible future developments of residential energy use in five developing world regions: India, China, South East Asia, South Africa and Brazil. We find that in each of these regions cooking is currently the main end-use function, but that other functions, such as space heating, cooling and appliances become more important. At the same time, energy consumption slowly shifts towards modern fuels. The model also shows that climate policy can reduce residential energy emissions, but could also slow down the energy transition away from traditional fuels in low income classes.     

Effect of building regulation on energy consumption in residential buildings in Korea

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the energy demand for the building sector constituted about 25.3% of the final energy use in South Korea. The energy demand for residential buildings counts for 50.3% of the building sector and has also increased by 2.9 percent every year. The Korean government has shifted focus and is now promoting energy efficiency within the building sector and has set long-term energy conservation goals.Despite these efforts to minimize building energy, the Korean government has changed the building regulation to allow remodeling of the balcony space as a living space. Remodeling the balcony space to become an indoor space means that a buffer space for the outdoor environment is lost, causing thermal discomfort and discomfort glare and moreover, increasing the heating and cooling energy demand in residential buildings. Also, it results in an increase in building energy demand in South Korea.In this study, the effect of the alteration of balcony space on the indoor thermal environment and the heating and cooling energy demand of residential buildings in Korea were investigated by field measurement and simulation. From the measurement results, the indoor temperature of the condition without a balcony was 0.8 °C lower than that with a balcony. The heating and cooling load of the unit without the balcony space was 39% and 22% higher, respectively, than that of the unit with the balcony space. This increase results in considerable energy loss in the national scale and the ratio will be 0.3% of the final energy use in Korea. Also, it represents about 1.3% of the final energy use within the building sector of Korea.     

The effects of changes in the climate on the energy demands of buildings

It is generally accepted that climate changes will have a major effect on our lives. However, buildings will also be faced with climate changes, and these changes will have an impact on indoor comfort, energy demands and the efficiency of building services, especially on those supporting free cooling and free heating. In order to predict the expected changes in a building's thermal response during its lifetime, it is necessary to look at the climate changes predicted for the future. In our study, the climate changes were considered by using simplified mathematical models combined with available test reference years to establish ‘corrected test reference years’. A transient simulation tool, TRNSYS, was used to simulate the indoor climate and the useful energy demand for the heating and cooling of different buildings with different free‐cooling techniques. In order to predict the expected changes in a building's thermal response, the meteorological parameters for the moderate, continental climate region of Slovenia were taken into account. The study shows that during a building's lifetime, significant changes in useful energy demands can be expected—a decrease in the useful energy demand for heating of between 23 and 40% and an up‐to‐38‐times increase in the useful energy needed for mechanical cooling. In buildings without mechanical cooling, the efficiency of the different free‐cooling techniques should be increased by between 100 and 200% to ensure the same living comfort. The results presented in the study confirm that it is necessary to evaluate the consequences of global climate changes from the point of view of energy use in buildings, their construction and the buildings' service installations. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Solar potential for water heating explored by GIS

A method is presented for the estimation of solar energy and market potential for water heating in the residential sector. The model was developed under a Geographical Information System and provides the tools to handle the spatial and time discrepancies of solar radiation and energy demand. A geographic database with climatic data is used for estimating efficiencies and monthly/annual coverage of water heating load. Financial analysis is conducted on the basis of the energy production cost and the Net Present Value of the investment. Different financial scenarios are considered and the expected energy yields from a large-scale deployment of solar thermal systems in the residential sector of Greece are assessed.     

Climate policies for road transport revisited (II): Closing the policy gap with cap-and-trade

Current policies in the road transport sector fail to deliver consistent and efficient incentives for greenhouse gas abatement (see companion article by Creutzig et al., in press). Market-based instruments such as cap-and-trade systems close this policy gap and complement traditional policies that are required where specific market failures arise. Even in presence of strong existing non-market policies, cap-and-trade delivers additional abatement and efficiency by incentivizing demand side abatement options. This paper analyzes generic design options and economic impacts of including the European road transport sector into the EU ETS. Suitable points of regulation are up- and midstream in the fuel chain to ensure effectiveness (cover all emissions and avoid double-counting), efficiency (incentivize all abatement options) and low transaction costs. Based on year 2020 marginal abatement cost curves from different models and current EU climate policy objectives we show that in contrast to conventional wisdom, road transport inclusion would not change the EU ETS allowance price. Hence, industrial carbon leakage induced by adding road transport to the EU ETS may be less important than previously estimated.     

Energy efficiency outlook in China’s urban buildings sector through 2030

This study uses bottom-up modeling framework in order to quantify potential energy savings and emission reduction impacts from the implementation of energy efficiency programs in the building sector in China. Policies considered include (1) accelerated building codes in residential and commercial buildings, (2) increased penetration of district heat metering and controls, (3) district heating efficiency improvement, (4) building energy efficiency labeling programs and (5) retrofits of existing commercial buildings.Among these programs, we found that the implementation of building codes provide by far the largest savings opportunity, leading to an overall 17% reduction in overall space heating and cooling demand relative to the baseline. Second are energy efficiency labels with 6%, followed by reductions of losses associated with district heating representing 4% reduction and finally, retrofits representing only about a 1% savings.     

An integrated assessment of climate change,air pollution,and energy security policy

This article presents an integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy. Basis of our analysis is the MERGE model, designed to study the interaction between the global economy, energy use, and the impacts of climate change. For our purposes we expanded MERGE with expressions that quantify damages incurred to regional economies as a result of air pollution and lack of energy security. One of the main findings of our cost–benefit analysis is that energy security policy alone does not decrease the use of oil: global oil consumption is only delayed by several decades and oil reserves are still practically depleted before the end of the 21st century. If, on the other hand, energy security policy is integrated with optimal climate change and air pollution policy, the world’s oil reserves will not be depleted, at least not before our modeling horizon well into the 22nd century: total cumulative demand for oil decreases by about 24%. More generally, we demonstrate that there are multiple other benefits of combining climate change, air pollution, and energy security policies and exploiting the possible synergies between them. These benefits can be large: for Europe the achievable CO₂ emission abatement and oil consumption reduction levels are significantly deeper for integrated policy than when a strategy is adopted in which one of the three policies is omitted. Integrated optimal energy policy can reduce the number of premature deaths from air pollution by about 14,000 annually in Europe and over 3 million per year globally, by lowering the chronic exposure to ambient particulate matter. Only the optimal strategy combining the three types of energy policy can constrain the global average atmospheric temperature increase to a limit of 3 °C with respect to the pre-industrial level.     

Smart electric storage heating and potential for residential demand response

Low-carbon transition plans for temperate and sub-polar regions typically involve some electrification of space heating. This poses challenges to electricity system operation and market design, as it increases overall demand and alters the temporal patterns of that demand. One response to the challenge is to ‘smarten’ electrical heating, enabling it to respond to network conditions by storing energy at times of plentiful supply, releasing it in response to customer demands and offering rapid-response ancillary services to the grid. Shared operation of domestic electrical heating, in such a scenario, may imply changes in everyday heating practices and will change the number of system stakeholders, their activities and how they relate to each other.This paper sets out some practical and theoretical issues relating to the potential for residential demand response via electric storage heating, drawing on academic and policy-related literature and on material from a current research project. It offers a brief history of residential storage heating and recent developments, paying particular attention to customer experience; considers the role of distributed storage in energy transitions and associated questions of value; outlines how agency and value in a smart system may be distributed between stakeholders; and assesses continuity and change in storage heating. While the paper focuses on storage heating, many of the issue raised apply to heat pumps, given their functional similarities with storage heaters and water heaters. The paper concludes with some conditions to be met if smart storage heating is to succeed in the twin tasks of providing effective customer service and demand response, and sets out questions for further research into demand response and heating practices.     

Multi-criteria analysis of combined cooling,heating and power systems in different climate zones in China

The design and operation of combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) systems are greatly dependent upon the seasonal atmospheric conditions, which determine thermal and power demands of buildings. This paper presents a mathematical analysis of CCHP system in comparison to separate system. The corresponding primary energy consumption in thermal demand management (TDM) and electrical demand management (EDM) operation modes are deduced. Three relative criteria, primary energy saving (PES), CO₂ emission reduction (CO₂ER), and annual total cost saving (ATCS) are employed to evaluate the respective performances of CCHP systems for a hypothetical building in five different climate zones from the technical, environmental and economic aspects. The results indicate that CCHP system in TDM mode in the cold area, where the building requires more heating during the year, achieves more benefit over separate system while CCHP system in EDM mode suits the building having stable thermal demand in mild climate zone.     

Energy efficiency in the residential sector: identification of promising policy instruments and private initiatives among selected European countries

Improving residential energy efficiency is widely recognised as one of the best strategies for reducing energy demand, combating climate change, and increasing security of energy supply. However, progress has been slow to date due to a number of market and behavioural barriers that have not been adequately addressed by energy efficiency policies and programmes. This study is based on updated findings of the European Futures for Energy Efficiency Project that responds to the EU Horizon 2020 Work Programme 2014–2015 theme ‘Secure, clean and efficient energy’. This article draws on five case studies from selected European countries—Finland, Italy, Hungary, Spain, and the UK—and evaluates recent energy efficiency developments in terms of indicators, private initiatives, and policy measures in the residential sector. Our analysis shows that the UK government has implemented a better range of policies, coupled with initiatives from the private sector, aimed at improving energy efficiency. However, its existing conditions appear to be more problematic than the other countries. On the other hand, the lack of effective and targeted policies in Finland resulted in increased energy consumption, while in Hungary, Spain and Italy some interesting initiatives, especially in terms of financial and fiscal incentives, have been found.