Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030: Can emissions peak before 2030?

In June 2015, China announced its post-2020 reduction targets, its central element being the intention to peak CO₂ emissions by 2030 or earlier. China has implemented several policies to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study provides emission projections for China up to 2030 given current policies and a selected set of enhanced policies, and compares the results with projected CO₂ emission trajectories that are consistent with the announced target for 2030. The projections are based on existing scenarios and energy system and land use model calculations. We project that the 2030 CO₂ emission level consistent with a peak in CO₂ emissions by 2030 ranges from 11.3 to 11.8 GtCO₂. The corresponding total GHG emission level ranges from 13.5 to 14.0 GtCO₂e in 2030. Current policies are likely not to be sufficient to achieve the 2030 targets, as our projected total GHG emission level under current policies ranges from 14.7 to 15.4 GtCO₂e by 2030. However, an illustrative set of enhancement policy measures, all of which are related to national priorities, leads to projected GHG emission levels from 13.1 to 13.7 GtCO₂e by 2030 – and thus below the levels necessary for peaking CO₂ emissions before 2030.     

Towards a low-carbon future in China's building sector—A review of energy and climate models forecast

This article investigates the potentials of energy saving and greenhouse gases emission mitigation offered by implementation of building energy efficiency policies in China. An overview of existing literature regarding long-term energy-demand and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission forecast scenarios is presented. Energy consumption in buildings could be reduced by 100–300 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2030 compared with the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which means that 600–700 million metric tons of CO₂ emissions could be saved by implementing appropriate energy policies within an adapted institutional framework. The main energy-saving potentials in buildings can be achieved by improving a building's thermal performance and district heating system efficiency. The analyses also reveal that the energy interchange systems are effective especially in the early stage of penetration. Our analysis on the reviewed models suggests that more ambitious efficiency improvement policies in both supply- and demand-side as well as the carbon price should be taken into account in the policy scenarios to address drastic reduction of CO₂ emission in the building sector to ensure climate security over the next decades.     

“十二五”节能服务产业发展前景与趋势

《国务院关于加快培育和发展战略性新兴产业的决定》明确宣布国家将重点培育和发展节能环保产业等七大战略性新兴产业,而节能服务产业属于节能环保产业范畴,被寄予引领整个节能环保产业发展的厚望。加快推行合同能源管理、加快发展节能服务产业是"十二五"加快经济转型的战略选择和迫切要求。我国现有的节能服务产业发展支持政策可归结为法律法规支持、行政规章支持、专项财政支持以及规划引导和工程推动等4类,这些政策的制定和施行为"十二五"期间我国节能服务产业的快速发展营造了较好的政策环境。"十二五"期间,我国节能服务市场需求的驱动力来自市场驱动和政策驱动两个方面,全社会对节能服务的市场需求巨大。届时节能服务公司数量将经历一个先增后减的过程,"十二五"后期全国公司数量将为1500家左右,有大型企业背景的节能服务公司可能带来不公平竞争,跨国公司或将成为我国节能服务市场重要的竞争参与者;节能服务市场的开发将主要集中在工业领域,同时在建筑领域业务活动将有所加强,东、中、西部节能服务市场开发的差距将缩小,节能服务市场将进一步细分。     

Interactions of energy technology development and new energy exploitation with water technology development in China

Interactions of energy policies with water technology development in China are investigated using a hybrid input-output model and scenario analysis. The implementation of energy policies and water technology development can produce co-benefits for each other. Water saving potential of energy technology development is much larger than that of new energy exploitation. From the viewpoint of proportions of water saving co-benefits of energy policies, energy sectors benefit the most. From the viewpoint of proportions of energy saving and CO₂ mitigation co-benefits of water technology development, water sector benefits the most. Moreover, economic sectors are classified into four categories concerning co-benefits on water saving, energy saving and CO₂ mitigation. Sectors in categories 1 and 2 have big direct co-benefits. Thus, they can take additional responsibility for water and energy saving and CO₂ mitigation. If China implements life cycle materials management, sectors in category 3 can also take additional responsibility for water and energy saving and CO₂ mitigation. Sectors in category 4 have few co-benefits from both direct and accumulative perspectives. Thus, putting additional responsibility on sectors in category 4 might produce pressure for their economic development.     

China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective

Rapidly growing energy demand from China's transportation sector in the last two decades have raised concerns over national energy security, local air pollution, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and there is broad consensus that China's transportation sector will continue to grow in the coming decades. This paper explores the future development of China's transportation sector in terms of service demands, final energy consumption, and CO₂ emissions, and their interactions with global climate policy. This study develops a detailed China transportation energy model that is nested in an integrated assessment model—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)—to evaluate the long-term energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of China's transportation sector from a global perspective. The analysis suggests that, without major policy intervention, future transportation energy consumption and CO₂ emissions will continue to rapidly increase and the transportation sector will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Although carbon price policies may significantly reduce the sector's energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, the associated changes in service demands and modal split will be modest, particularly in the passenger transport sector. The analysis also suggests that it is more difficult to decarbonize the transportation sector than other sectors of the economy, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on petroleum products.     

Co-benefits from energy policies in China

The rapid growth in coal and oil consumption has led to increasing emissions of greenhouse gases as well as air pollutants in China. In response to this, the Chinese government has begun to formulate policies to retard the increasing use of energy consumption and to improve air quality. This paper attempts to quantify the co-benefits of reducing carbon dioxide emissions and improving air quality from policies that are originally formulated to improve energy efficiency and to abate emissions of air pollutants from energy use. The present authors have developed an integrated approach, combining an energy projection model, an emission estimation model, an air quality simulation model, and a health benefit evaluation model, to assess the co-benefits of two different sets of energy policies of China. The modeling results show that significant benefits, including 1469 million tonnes of reduced emissions of CO₂, 12–32% decline in air pollutant concentrations, and more than 100 billion US$ of health benefit, can be achieved around the year 2030 if aggressive energy policies are implemented. The analyses suggest that such energy policies could do a lot of benefit to the environment. Moreover, better industry structure and energy structure is essential for higher air quality.     

Analysis of the market penetration of clean coal technologies and its impacts in China's electricity sector

This paper discusses policy instruments for promoting the market penetration of clean coal technologies (CCTs) into China's electricity sector and the evaluation of corresponding effects. Based on the reality that coal will remain the predominant fuel to generate electricity and conventional pulverized coal boiler power plants have serious impacts on environment degradation, development of clean coal technologies could be one alternative to meet China's fast growing demand of electricity as well as protect the already fragile environment. A multi-period market equilibrium model is applied and an electricity model of China is established to forecast changes in the electricity system up to 2030s. Three policy instruments: SO₂ emission charge, CO₂ emission charge and implementing subsidies are considered in this research. The results show that all instruments cause a significant shift in China's electricity structure, promote CCTs’ competitiveness and lead China to gain great benefit in both resource saving and environment improvement. Since resource security and environment degradation are becoming primary concerns in China, policies that could help to gain generations’ market share of advanced coal-based technologies such as CCTs’ is suitable for the current situation of China's electricity sector.     

Renewable energy in the heating sector in Austria with particular reference to the region of Upper Austria

The heating sector has been neglected in energy policies for quite some time, especially on the European level. Only recently, with the implementation of the European directive 2009/28/EC the sector has gained higher attention. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the heat market in Austria and of the current status and future prospects of renewable energy in the heat sector (RES-H) up to 2030. Despite the growing energy demand, the share of renewable energy in the total energy demand for space heating and hot water increased from about 20% in 1970 to about 34% in 2008. This is mainly due to ambitious RES-H support instruments and regional policy targets. For example, the government of the region of Upper Austria has implemented a target of 100% RES-H share in the space heating and hot water sector until the year 2030. However, the National Renewable Energy Action Plan for 2020 foresees only moderate growth rates for RES-H compared to recent market growth and scenarios in literature. Due to the ambitious targets and support schemes of regional governments it seems likely that RES-H deployment could growstronger than stated in the action plan.     

CO2 emission and economic growth in Algeria

Algeria is one of the most important CO₂ emitters among developing countries and the third among African countries. It pledged to curb carbon emissions by at least 7% by 2030. However, complying with this target may be a difficult task without compromising economic growth. The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between CO₂ emissions and economic growth in Algeria, taking into account energy use, electricity consumption, exports and imports. The validity of the EKC hypothesis, throughout the period from 1970 to 2010, is tested by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model extended to introduce the break points. Results confirm the EKC for Algeria. Nevertheless, the turning point is reached for a very high GDP per capita value, indicating that economic growth in Algeria will continue to increase emissions. Results also indicate that an increase in energy use and electricity consumption increase CO₂ emissions, and that exports and imports affect them negatively and positively, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to promote renewable energies and energy efficiency policies. Regulatory reforms are needed to facilitate foreign investments with which to carry out these policies. Likewise, it may be appropriate to decrease subsides in energy prices to encourage energy efficiency.     

Will a radical transport pricing reform jeopardize the ambitious EU climate change objectives?

This paper examines the effects of replacing current fuel taxes by a system of taxes that account better for all the different external costs of the different transport modes. One of the important implications of this reform is that current fuel taxes are decreased to a level of 80 euro/ton of CO₂ but that the mileage related taxes on car and truck use increase. Using the TREMOVE model for the transport sector of 31 European countries, one finds that the volume of transport will decrease because current taxes on transport are too low compared to overall external costs. Overall CO₂ emissions will decrease slightly. Using the MARKAL–TIMES model for the Belgian energy sector, putting all sectors and technologies on equal footing shows that a fuel tax reform makes that it is not cost efficient to require large CO₂ emission reductions in the transport sector and that traditional car technologies will continue to dominate the car market in 2020–2030.     

Thailand's energy security indicators

This study presents an assessment of the energy security of Thailand using nineteen indicators. The assessment period is for a 45 year period (1986–2030), and used published data for 1986–2009, and applying three energy scenarios for the period 2010–2030. The three scenarios considered were “high economic growth and least cost option (HEG&LC)”, “low carbon society (LCS)”, and “current policy (CP)”. The results show that LCS scenario shows higher energy security or lower vulnerability to energy risk on a long term. However, to achieve this, the additional target of energy saving by 2030 should be changed from 25% reduction of energy intensity of final energy consumption to 60% energy intensity reduction of primary energy compared to 2009 level. One benefit would be an increase in the non-carbon incentive fuel portfolio by 33% of total primary energy supply in 2030. A reduction in crude oil and natural gas domestic production will be offset by an increase in their imports. CO₂ emission reduction of 123 MtCO₂ and improvements in domestic energy reserves will also result.     

Can China achieve its 2030 energy development targets by fulfilling carbon intensity reduction commitments?

China has proposed carbon intensity targets and energy development targets for 2030. This study investigates the linkages between these targets and assesses if China can achieve its energy development targets by fulfilling its carbon reduction commitments. To this end, it quantitatively evaluates the impact of carbon emission controls on the Chinese economy using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The results show that China's carbon abatement pledge cannot guarantee achievement of all energy objectives. China is likely to reach the upper limit of its carbon intensity target in 2020 and the lower limit in 2030 if current abatement efforts are maintained. To achieve the upper limit in 2030, the carbon price will be CNY 83/tCO₂. The energy consumption target for 2020 is likely to be realized but the 2030 target is not. A more stringent price constraint on carbon emissions would be helpful to the achievement of the non-fossil energy target in 2030, but would have a limited promoting effect on natural gas development. Our results reveal the linkages between China's energy targets and carbon emission targets, which is valuable to the cost-effective dual control of energy consumption and carbon emission.     

促进节能服务产业发展的财税政策模式

节能服务产业是以节能服务公司为代表的新兴服务业。分析了我国现有节能服务产业发展财税支持政策存在的问题与不足,并提出了一系列的财税政策建议。就促进节能服务产业发展而言．我国财税政策调整的基本目标和方向应是显著提高财税政策在推动节能服务产业发展中的重大作用,近期主要围绕支持实现“十一五”国家节能目标,尽快制定和完善能够显著推动节能服务产业发展的财税政策：中长期阶段围绕支持实施建设资源节约型社会这一国家战略,逐步形成健全的节能服务产业发展财税支持政策体系。     

Analysis of energy use and CO2 emission in service industries: Evidence from Sweden

This study analyses the trends in energy use and CO₂ emissions for 19 sub-sectors in the Swedish service sectors following the classification of the International Standard Industrial Classification of all Economic Activities (ISIC) at the 2-digit level of aggregation over the period 1993–2008. This empirical study intends to examine energy use, energy efficiency and CO₂ emissions using data envelopment analysis (DEA) and panel data techniques. DEA is applied to assess energy efficiency within a production framework. Panel data techniques are used to determine which variables influence energy efficiency. The results show that Swedish services industries have increased energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the period 1993–2008. The results from the DEA show significant variation in energy efficiency across service industries. The results also indicate that this sector has increased technical efficiency and energy efficiency while decreasing CO₂ emissions, especially in the later years of our sample period. The results of panel data techniques show that higher energy taxes, electricity consumption, investments and labour productivity generate higher energy efficiency, while higher fossil fuel consumption leads to lower energy efficiency. All findings of this study are important for developing effective energy policies that encourage better energy use and energy management in the service industries.     

Biofuels in the energy transition beyond peak oil.: A macroscopic study of energy demand in the Stockholm transport system 2030

The objective of this study is to examine the potential for a full transition to domestically produced biofuels in the Stockholm County transport system in 2030, without exceeding the proportional share of national bioenergy assets. This target is chosen in order to test the potential of biofuel assets in Sweden, facilitating the transition to renewable fuel systems, and to display the potential of transport energy demand at macrolevel under tighter conditions on the energy market after fossil oil production has peaked. The distribution of bioenergy to the transport sector, including conversion losses and relationships to other energy sectors, is analysed explicitly. State-of-the-art traffic forecasting models, complemented with a specially designed energy quantification model, are applied to assess energy quantities needed at different vehicle efficiency levels and mobility patterns. The purpose is not to determine the most energy-efficient transport system possible, or to forecast the optimal distribution of bioenergy set aside for the transport sector in the future. Rather, we try to visualise, at a more conceptual level, energy demand as dependent on principle transport strategies, future technological developments and a type of planning that takes technological interlinkages between evolving components into strategic account. This work highlights the importance of implementing both demand and supply-side policies in order to reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in all energy sectors before making assessments of reasonable distributions of bioenergy between energy sectors and other biomass usage.     

The effect of energy end-use efficiency improvement on China’s energy use and CO2 emissions: a CGE model-based analysis

With its rapid economic growth, China is now confronted with soaring pressure from both its energy supply and the environment. To deal with this conflict, energy end-use efficiency improvement is now promoted by the government as an emphasis for future energy saving. This study explores the general equilibrium effect of energy end-use efficiency improvement on China’s economy, energy use, and CO₂ emissions. This paper develops a static, multisector computable general equilibrium model (CGE) for China, with specific detail in energy use and with the embodiment of energy efficiency. In order to explore the ability of subsidizing non-fossil-generated electricity on moderating potential rebound effects, in this model, the electricity sector was deconstructed into five specific generation activities using bottom–up data from the Chinese electricity industry. The model is calibrated into a 16-sector Chinese Social Accounting Matrix for the year 2002. In the analysis, seven scenarios were established: business as usual, solely efficiency improvement, and five policy scenarios (taxing carbon, subsidized hydropower, subsidized nuclear power, combination of taxing carbon and subsidized hydropower, combination of taxing carbon and subsidized nuclear power). Results show that a sectoral-uniform improvement of energy end-use efficiency will increase rather than decrease the total energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. The sensitivity analysis of sectoral efficiency improvement shows that efficiency improvements happened in different sectors may have obvious different extents of rebound. The three sectors, whose efficient improvements do not drive-up total national energy use and CO₂ emissions, include Iron and Steel, Building Materials, and Construction. Thus, the improvement of energy end-use efficiency should be sectoral specific. When differentiating the sectoral energy-saving goal, not only the saving potential of each sector but also its potential to ease the total rebound should be taken into account. Moreover, since the potential efficiency improvement for a sector over a certain period will be limited, technology measures should work along with a specific policy to neutralize the rebound effect. Results of policy analysis show that one relatively enhanced way is to combine carbon taxing with subsidized hydropower.     

Putting renewables and energy efficiency to work: How many jobs can the clean energy industry generate in the US?

An analytical job creation model for the US power sector from 2009 to 2030 is presented. The model synthesizes data from 15 job studies covering renewable energy (RE), energy efficiency (EE), carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear power. The paper employs a consistent methodology of normalizing job data to average employment per unit energy produced over plant lifetime. Job losses in the coal and natural gas industry are modeled to project net employment impacts. Benefits and drawbacks of the methodology are assessed and the resulting model is used for job projections under various renewable portfolio standards (RPS), EE, and low carbon energy scenarios We find that all non-fossil fuel technologies (renewable energy, EE, low carbon) create more jobs per unit energy than coal and natural gas. Aggressive EE measures combined with a 30% RPS target in 2030 can generate over 4 million full-time-equivalent job-years by 2030 while increasing nuclear power to 25% and CCS to 10% of overall generation in 2030 can yield an additional 500,000 job-years.     

Energy and environmental implications of carbon emission reduction targets: Case of Kathmandu Valley,Nepal

This paper analyzes the sectoral energy consumption pattern and emissions of CO₂ and local air pollutants in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. It also discusses the evolution of energy service demands, structure of energy supply system and emissions from various sectors under the base case scenario during 2005–2050. A long term energy system planning model of the Kathmandu Valley based on the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) framework is used for the analyses. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the least cost options to achieve CO₂ emission reduction targets of 10%, 20% and 30% below the cumulative emission level in the base case and also discusses their implications for total cost, technology-mix, energy-mix and local pollutant emissions. The paper shows that a major switch in energy use pattern from oil and gas to electricity would be needed in the Valley to achieve the cumulative CO₂ emission reduction target of 30% (ER30). Further, the share of electricity in the cumulative energy consumption of the transport sector would increase from 12% in the base case to 24% in the ER30 case.     

Market penetration analysis of hydrogen vehicles in Norwegian passenger transport towards 2050

The Norwegian energy system is characterized by high dependency on electricity, mainly hydro power. If the national targets to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases should be met, a substantial reduction of CO₂ emissions has to be obtained from the transport sector. This paper presents the results of the analyses of three Norwegian regions with the energy system model MARKAL during the period 2005–2050. The MARKAL models were used in connection with an infrastructure model H2INVEST. The analyses show that a transition to a hydrogen fuelled transportation sector could be feasible in the long run, and indicate that with substantial hydrogen distribution efforts, fuel cell cars can become competitive compared to other technologies both in urban (2025) and rural areas (2030). In addition, the result shows the importance of the availability of local energy resources for hydrogen production, like the advantages of location close to chemical industry or surplus of renewable electricity.     

Macroeconomic effects of the Ethanol Biofuel Sector in Canada

The Government of Canada, like many others around the world, has given much importance to biofuels to address some of its policy challenges: climate change and diversification of energy supply. To deal with the emissions, the Government plans to increase production and use of ethanol. This will have impacts on the Canadian economy. An input-output model of the Canadian economy is developed to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of the Ethanol production in Canada. Several modifications have been made in the Use and Make matrix of Canada, 2003. To consider biofuel sector in the Make and Use table of Canada 2003 we have included two new industries - biofuel and E10. The four new commodities have been entered in the list - ethanol, E10, DDG and CO₂. The impact matrix is estimated from an input-output model that computes the direct plus indirect impacts on the Canadian economy, 2003. This model has been closed to the household sector in the economy by endogenizing this sector into the model. Various multipliers have also been estimated. A number of simulation exercises have also been attempted to study the implications of policies to reach the Kyoto target of Canada. Results show that the macroeconomic impact of ethanol sector leads to increase in industrial output and employment. The agriculture sector makes necessary adjustments to meet the demand for ethanol product. The petroleum industry is also going to be affected. The paper concludes with several policy suggestions.