The European renewable energy target for 2030 – An impact assessment of the electricity sector

The European Union set binding targets for the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) and the share of renewable energy (RE) in final energy consumption by 2020. The European Council agreed to continue with this strategy through to 2030 by setting a RE target of 27% in addition to a GHG reduction target of 40%. We provide a detailed sectoral impact assessment by analyzing the implications for the electricity sector in terms of economic costs and the regional distribution of investments and shares of electricity generated from renewable energy sources (RES-E). According to the Impact Analysis by the European Commission the 27% RE target corresponds to a RES-E share of 49%. Our model-based sensitivity analysis on underlying technological and institutional assumptions shows that the cost-effective RES-E share varies between 43% and 56%. Secondly, we quantify the economic costs of these variants and those which would be incurred with higher shares. The long-term additional costs for higher RES-E shares would be less than 1% of total system costs. The third aspect relates to the regional distribution of EU-wide efforts for upscaling renewables. We point out that delivering high RES-E shares in a cost-effective manner involves considerably different efforts by the Member States.     

Cost-benefit analysis of energy scenarios for the Mexican power sector

Three Mexican power sector scenarios for the period 1996–2025 are subjected to a cost-benefit analysis. The three scenarios are: base (using fuel oil), official (introducing natural gas) and transition (incorporating renewable energy). Also technical, economic and energy resources databases are constructed to supply information for the analysis. Benefit/cost ratios (B/C) are obtained by varying the following economic parameters: fossil fuel average prices, discount rates and capital costs evolution as an expression of technological change. For present technical and economic conditions, the B/C ratio of the official scenario is more economically favorable than that of the transition and the transition is more favorable than the base scenario. Also, the viability of the transition scenario increases rapidly when technological change is taken into consideration.     

Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO₂-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.     

The analysis of the renewable energy production sector in Serbia

Producing energy from renewable sources in Serbia is in its initial phase, and therefore this paper points towards the basic assumptions, potentials and institutional framework for the development of this activity in Serbia. Until recently, production and consumption of energy in Serbia was a social category, but the shift towards market economy together with the fact that Serbia has adopted Kyoto protocol, production of energy from renewable sources became a competitive and obligatory activity. Research shows that the current potentials for producing energy from renewable sources in Serbia are favorable. Besides this, the paper provides an overview of the existing institutional structure in the energy sector in Serbia, but also the short overview of the adequate legal acts. Researches that were done so far have proven that energy potentials of Serbia are insufficiently known and therefore authors will give an overview of the foreign investments in this sector and reveal the possibilities for further investing. Considering the existing know-how base and potentials for the production of equipment, geothermal energy and energy coming from biomass have been identified as priority renewable sources of energy. Producing energy from other renewable sources is also possible, but would require substantial foreign investments. As a final conclusion, the paper states that completely unused potentials for production of energy from renewable sources, together with adequately set institutional framework, would create great possibilities for foreign investments.     

CO2 mitigation costs for new renewable energy capacity in the Mexican electricity sector using renewable energies

Carbon dioxide mitigation costs for the Mexican power sector are calculated in order to compare the business as usual (BAU) scenario, based on natural gas capacity growth, to a transition scenario where electricity generation growth using natural gas after 2007 is replaced by renewable energies (solar, wind, hydro and biomass). The mitigation costs are obtained using the following parameters: natural gas price, discount rate and technological progress. The latter is expressed in terms of the anticipated decrease in capital costs, as reported in electricity generation technological literature. Our results show that when technological progress is considered, CO₂ mitigation costs decrease rapidly from 14 $/tCO₂ (in this paper $ express 1997 US dollars and t means metric tons) to zero when the price of natural gas nears 2.68 $/GJ, (for some readers, it can be useful to know that 1.0 US$1997/GJ is 1.19 US$2001/MMBTU) which is almost the same as the 2002 price. This means that for middle natural gas prices a “no regrets” situation can be achieved. Our results also show that for prices higher than 2.80 $/GJ, the incorporation of the technological progress parameter transforms the transition scenario into a “no regrets” scenario for all the discount rate values considered in this study.     

Design scenarios for integrated renewable energy systems

The wide variety of renewable energy resources and their highly site-specific and variable nature, coupled with different types and qualities of energy needs, pose a challenging problem to the designers of integrated renewable energy systems (IRES). This paper discusses some typical design scenarios and the formulation of designs using the knowledge-based design tool IRES-KB with the aid of KAPPA-PC development tools. A remote village with no electrical grid connection is chosen for this study since renewables are most likely to make their greatest impact in such locations. The versatility of IRES-KB is brought out in the discussion of the results     

Life-cycle assessment in the renewable energy sector

The Polish energy industry is facing challenges regarding energetic safety, competitiveness, improvement of domestic companies and environmental protection. Ecological guidelines concern the elimination of detrimental solutions, and effective energy management, which will form the basis for sustainable development. The Polish power industry is required to systematically increase the share of energy taken from renewable sources in the total energy sold to customers. Besides the economic issues, particular importance is assigned to environmental factors associated with the choice of energy source. That is where life-cycle assessment (LCA) is important. The main purpose of LCA is to identify the environmental impacts of goods and services during the whole life cycle of the product or service. Therefore LCA can be applied to assess the impact on the environment of electricity generation and will allow producers to make better decisions pertaining to environmental protection. The renewable energy sources analysed in this paper include the energy from photovoltaics, wind turbines and hydroelectric power. The goal and scope of the analysis comprise the assessment of environmental impacts of production of 1 GJ of energy from the sources mentioned above. The study will cover the construction, operation and waste disposal at each power plant. Analysis will cover the impact categories, where the environmental influence is the most significant, i.e. resource depletion, global warmth potential, acidification and eutrophication. The LCA results will be shown on the basis of European and Australian research. This analysis will be extended with a comparison between environmental impacts of energy from renewable and conventional sources. This report will conclude with an analysis of possibilities of application of the existing research results and LCA rules in the Polish energy industry with a focus on Poland's future accession to the European Union. Definitions of LCA fundamental concepts, its methodology and application are described in the ISO 14040-14049 series of standards. These standards have already been introduced in some countries, but in Poland they are still at the stage of translation into Polish. Nevertheless some companies in Poland try to assess how their products influence the environment and what are the possibilities of technology improvement in the existing production process reduce their environmental impact.     

Vulnerability to terrorist attacks in European electricity decarbonisation scenarios: Comparing renewable electricity imports to gas imports

The decarbonised future European electricity system must remain secure: reliable electricity supply is a prerequisite for the functioning of modern society. Scenarios like Desertec, which partially rely on solar power imports from the Middle East and North Africa, may be attractive for decarbonisation, but raise concerns about terrorists interrupting supply by attacking the long, unprotected transmission lines in the Sahara. In this paper, I develop new methods and assess the European vulnerability to terrorist attacks in the Desertec scenario. I compare this to the vulnerability of today's system and a decarbonisation scenario in which Europe relies on gas imports for electricity generation. I show that the vulnerability of both gas and electricity imports is low, but electricity imports are more vulnerable than gas imports, due to their technical characteristics. Gas outages (and, potentially, resulting blackouts) are the very unlikely consequence even of very high-number attacks against the gas import system, whereas short blackouts are the potential consequence of a few attacks against the import electricity lines. As the impacts of all except extreme attacks are limited, terrorists cannot attack energy infrastructure and cause spectacular, fear-creating outages. Both gas and electricity import infrastructure are thus unattractive and unlikely terrorist targets.     

Tradable certificates for renewable electricity and energy savings

Tradable green certificates (TGCs) schemes have been developed and tested in several European countries to foster market-driven penetration of renewables. These certificates guarantee that a specific volume of electricity is generated from renewable-energy source (RES). More recently certificates (tradable white certificates (TWCs)) for the electricity saved by demand-side energy-efficiency measures (EEMs) have been introduced in some European countries. Recent advances in information and communication technology have opened up new possibilities for improving energy efficiency and increasing utilization of RESs. Use of technological resources such as the Internet and smart metering can permit real-time issuing and trading of TGCs. These technologies could also permit issuing of TWC. This paper reviews current renewable TGC and TWCs schemes in Europe and describes the possibilities for combining them in an Internet-based system. In the proposed combined tradable certificate scheme, both RESs and demand-side EEMs could bid in real time through the Internet to meet a specific obligation. The energy savings from the demand-side measures would be equivalent to the same amount of green electricity production. The paper describes the needed common targets and obligations, the certificate trading rules and the possible monitoring protocol. In particular, the paper focuses on the TWCs verification issues, including the assessment of the baseline, as these poses additional problems for TWCs compared to TGCs.     

State renewable energy electricity policies: An empirical evaluation of effectiveness

Over the past decade, state governments have emerged as US energy policy leaders. Across the country, states are adopting policy instruments aimed at carbon mitigation and renewable energy deployment. One of the most prevalent and innovative policy instruments is a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), which seeks to increase the share of renewable energy electrification in the electricity market. This analysis evaluates the effectiveness of state energy programs with an empirical investigation of the linkage between state RPS policy implementation and the percentage of renewable energy electricity generation across states. We use a variant of a standard fixed effects model, referred to as a fixed effects vector decomposition, with state-level data from 1998 to 2006. Results indicate that RPS implementation is not a significant predictor of the percentage of renewable energy generation out of the total generation mix, yet for each additional year that a state has an RPS policy, they are found to increase the total amount of renewable energy generation. These findings reveal a potentially significant shortcoming of RPS policies. Political institutions, natural resource endowments, deregulation, gross state product per capita, electricity use per person, electricity price, and the presence of regional RPS policies are also found to be significantly related to renewable energy deployment.     

Modeling hourly electricity dynamics for policy making in long-term scenarios

Energy policies are often related to the global effort in reducing greenhouse gas emissions through increased use of renewable energies in electricity production. The impact of these policies is usually calculated by energy planning tools. However, the modeling methodologies most currently used are not adequate to simulate long-term scenarios while considering the hourly dynamics of supply and demand.     

An analysis of hydrogen production from renewable electricity sources

Three aspects of producing hydrogen via renewable electricity sources are analyzed to determine the potential for solar and wind hydrogen production pathways: a renewable hydrogen resource assessment, a cost analysis of hydrogen production via electrolysis, and the annual energy requirements of producing hydrogen for refueling. The results indicate that ample resources exist to produce transportation fuel from wind and solar power. However, hydrogen prices are highly dependent on electricity prices. For renewables to produce hydrogen at $2 kg⁻¹, using electrolyzers available in 2004, electricity prices would have to be less than $0.01 kWh⁻¹. Additionally, energy requirements for hydrogen refueling stations are in excess of 20 GWh/year. It may be challenging for dedicated renewable systems at the filling station to meet such requirements. Therefore, while plentiful resources exist to provide clean electricity for the production of hydrogen for transportation fuel, challenges remain to identify optimum economic and technical configurations to provide renewable energy to distributed hydrogen refueling stations.     

Prospects of renewable energy utilisation for electricity generation in Bangladesh

Bangladesh has been facing a power crisis for about a decade, mainly because of inadequate power generation capacity compared with demand and the ageing infrastructure of many existing power generation facilities. Only 20% of the total population are connected to grid electricity—25% in urban areas and a mere 10% in rural areas where 80% of the total population resides. Currently, most power plants in Bangladesh (representing 84.5% of the total installed capacity) use natural gas—the main commercial primary energy source, with limited national reserves—as a fuel. Electricity supply to low-load rural and remote areas is characterised by high transmission and distribution costs and transmission losses, and heavily subsidised pricing.Renewable energy sources in Bangladesh, particularly biomass, can play a major role to meet electricity demands in the rural and remote areas of the country. The current study indicates that in 2003, the national total generation and recovery rates of biomass in Bangladesh were 148.983 and 86.276 Mtonne, respectively. In energy term, the national annual amount of the recoverable biomass is equivalent to 312.613 TWh. Considering the present national consumption of biomass, total available biomass resources potential for electricity generation vary from 183.865 to 223.794 TWh. Biomass energy potential in the individual districts of the country has been estimated for the planning small- to medium-scale biomass-to-electricity plants.     

Renewable energy sources in the Mexican electricity sector

This paper analyzes the role of renewable energy sources (RES) in the Mexican electricity sector in the context of the proposed renewable energy bill currently under consideration in the Mexican Congress. This paper was divided into three parts. The first part presents a chronology of institutional background related to the RES. This is followed by an analysis of the coordination and management system of the Mexican electricity sector, which can facilitate the promotion and integration of the RES without significant structural changes. Finally, the pros and cons of the renewable energy bill are analyzed in order to demonstrate the need for greater coherence between the bill and the coordination system of the sector. It is concluded that when inconsistency is eliminated, RES would strongly be promoted in Mexico.     

A market for renewable energy credits in the Indian power sector

Electricity generation from renewable energy sources in India has been promoted through a host of fiscal policies and preferential tariff for electricity produced from the same. The fiscal policies include tax incentives and purchase of electricity generated through renewable energy sources. The enactment of the Electricity Act 2003 (the Act) has lent further support to renewable energy by stipulating purchase of a certain percentage of the power procurement by distribution utilities from renewable energy sources. The renewable portfolio obligation as well as the feed-in tariff for power procurement has been specified by a number of State Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs) for the respective state under their jurisdiction. A feed-in tariff determined through a cost-plus approach under a rate of return framework lacks incentive for cost minimisation and does not encourage optimal utilisation of renewable energy resources in the country. Such regulatory provisions differ across states.The prevalent practice of fixing a renewable portfolio obligation along with cost-based feed-in tariffs disregards economic efficiency. The paper proposes nationally tradable renewable energy credits scheme for achieving the targets set by the respective SERCs as renewable portfolio obligation. This would reduce the cost of compliance to a renewable portfolio obligation, and would encourage efficient resource utilisation and investment in appropriate technologies. The paper highlights its advantages and implementation issues. This paper discusses regulatory developments for promotion of renewable energy in various Indian states. The paper also identifies a number of issues related to regulations concerning renewable portfolio obligation.     

The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model

There is a revival in the nuclear debate observed in the literature. Several analyses have shown that nuclear technologies may represent very attractive options for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, especially in countries with high growth projections for energy demand. Our objective is to analyze the role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios using the World-TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) bottom-up model. World-TIMES is a global model that optimizes the energy system of 15 regions over a 100-year horizon (2000–2100).     

Funding renewable energy: An analysis of renewable portfolio standards

Thirty states have adopted renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) that set targets for renewable energy generation by mandating that electric power utilities obtain a minimum percentage of their power from renewable sources. Our synthetic control (SC) model finds that states with RPSs have experienced increases in electricity prices and decreases in electricity demand relative to non-RPS states with similar economic, political and renewable natural resource characteristics. While both RPS and non-RPS SCs experienced increases in renewable energy generation over the sample time period, we do not find evidence that RPS states have experienced increases in renewable energy generation relative to SCs and weak evidence of emissions reductions.     

Costing electricity supply scenarios: A case study of promoting renewable energy technologies on Rodriguez, Mauritius

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) import increasing amounts of fossil fuel to meet their rising energy demand. This places an unnecessary financial burden on their budget, as abundant Renewable Energy Sources (RES) are often available. The introduction of Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs) can harness these resources, providing sufficient electricity as well as maintaining a high degree of independence. However, one of the principle barriers to their application has been the high cost of installing them. This paper argues that the economics of instigating RETs on SIDS are potentially favourable over the application of fossil fuel technologies if the full life-cycle costs are considered. A case study conducted in 2001, modelling three alternative electricity provision scenarios on Rodrigues, Mauritius supports these assumptions. The findings are based on a comparative economic model using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analyses, as well as a variety of sensitivity analyses, to predict changing economic environments. This provides crucial guidance for the formulation of energy policy and planning. This work is part of a tripartite research project that connects the economics with renewable resources assessment and a multi criteria analysis investigating the social and environmental consequences to provide a transferable framework assessment of renewable energy supply options on SIDS.     

Assessment of renewable energy resources potential for electricity generation in Bangladesh

Renewable energy encompasses a broad range of energy resources. Bangladesh is known to have a good potential for renewable energy, but so far no systematic study has been done to quantify this potential for power generation. This paper estimates the potential of renewable energy resources for power generation in Bangladesh from the viewpoint of different promising available technologies. Estimation of the potential of solar energy in Bangladesh is done using a GIS-based GeoSpatial Toolkit (GsT), Hybrid System Optimization Model for Electric Renewables (HOMER) model and NASA Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) solar radiation data. The potential of wind energy is estimated by developing a Bangladesh wind map using NASA SSE wind data and HOMER model. A review of country's biomass and hydro potential for electricity generation is presented. The technical potential of gird-connected solar PV is estimated at 50,174 MW. Assuming that 1000 h per year of full power is the feasible threshold for the exploitation of wind energy, the areas that satisfy this condition in the country would be sufficient for the installation of 4614 MW of wind power. The potential of biomass-based and small hydro power plants is estimated at 566 and 125 MW, respectively. The renewable energy resources cannot serve as alternative to conventional energy resources, yet they may serve to supplement the long-term energy needs of Bangladesh to a significant level.