Early prostate cancer diagnosis by using artificial neural networks and support vector machines

The aim of this study is to design a classifier based expert system for early diagnosis of the organ in constraint phase to reach informed decision making without biopsy by using some selected features. The other purpose is to investigate a relationship between BMI (body mass index), smoking factor, and prostate cancer. The data used in this study were collected from 300 men (100: prostate adenocarcinoma, 200: chronic prostatism or benign prostatic hyperplasia). Weight, height, BMI, PSA (prostate specific antigen), Free PSA, age, prostate volume, density, smoking, systolic, diastolic, pulse, and Gleason score features were used and independent sample t-test was applied for feature selection. In order to classify related data, we have used following classifiers; scaled conjugate gradient (SCG), Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS), and Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) training algorithms of artificial neural networks (ANN) and linear, polynomial, and radial based kernel functions of support vector machine (SVM). It was determined that smoking is a factor increases the prostate cancer risk whereas BMI is not affected the prostate cancer. Since PSA, volume, density, and smoking features were to be statistically significant, they were chosen for classification. The proposed system was designed with polynomial based kernel function, which had the best performance (accuracy: 79%). In Turkish Family Health System, family physician to whom patients are applied firstly, would contribute to extract the risk map of illness and direct patients to correct treatments by using expert system such proposed.     

Financial decision support using neural networks and support vector machines

Abstract: Bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring are the two important problems facing financial decision support. The multilayer perceptron (MLP) network has shown its applicability to these problems and its performance is usually superior to those of other traditional statistical models. Support vector machines (SVMs) are the core machine learning techniques and have been used to compare with MLP as the benchmark. However, the performance of SVMs is not fully understood in the literature because an insufficient number of data sets is considered and different kernel functions are used to train the SVMs. In this paper, four public data sets are used. In particular, three different sizes of training and testing data in each of the four data sets are considered (i.e. 3:7, 1:1 and 7:3) in order to examine and fully understand the performance of SVMs. For SVM model construction, the linear, radial basis function and polynomial kernel functions are used to construct the SVMs. Using MLP as the benchmark, the SVM classifier only performs better in one of the four data sets. On the other hand, the prediction results of the MLP and SVM classifiers are not significantly different for the three different sizes of training and testing data.     

Goal distance estimation for automated planning using neural networks and support vector machines

Many of today’s most successful planners perform a forward heuristic search. The accuracy of the heuristic estimates and the cost of their computation determine the performance of the planner. Thanks to the efforts of researchers in the area of heuristic search planning, modern algorithms are able to generate high-quality estimates. In this paper we propose to learn heuristic functions using artificial neural networks and support vector machines. This approach can be used to learn standalone heuristic functions but also to improve standard planning heuristics. One of the most famous and successful variants for heuristic search planning is used by the Fast-Forward (FF) planner. We analyze the performance of standalone learned heuristics based on nature-inspired machine learning techniques and employ a comparison to the standard FF heuristic and other heuristic learning approaches. In the conducted experiments artificial neural networks and support vector machines were able to produce standalone heuristics of superior accuracy. Also, the resulting heuristics are computationally much more performant than related ones.     

Predicting river daily flow using wavelet-artificial neural networks based on regression analyses in comparison with artificial neural networks and support vector machine models

This study investigates the ability of wavelet-artificial neural networks (WANN) for the prediction of short-term daily river flow. The WANN model is improved by conjunction of two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks (ANN) based on regression analyses, respectively. The proposed WANN models are applied to the daily flow data of Vanyar station, on the Ajichai River in the northwest region of Iran, and compared with the ANN and support vector machine (SVM) techniques. Mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and correlation coefficient (R) statistics are used for evaluating precision of the WANN, ANN and SVM models. Comparison results demonstrate that the WANN model performs better than the ANN and SVM models in short-term (1-, 2- and 3-day ahead) daily river flow prediction.

     

Short term forecasting with support vector machines and application to stock price prediction

Forecasting a stock price movement is one of the most difficult problems in finance. The reason is that financial time series are complex, non stationary. Furthermore, it is also very difficult to predict this movement with parametric models. Instead of parametric models, we propose two techniques, which are data driven and non parametric. Based on the idea that excess returns would be possible with publicly available information, we developed two models in order to forecast the short term price movements by using technical indicators. Our assumption is that the future value of a stock price depends on the financial indicators although there is no parametric model to explain this relationship. This relationship comes from the technical analysis. Comparison shows that support vector regression (SVR) out performs the multi layer perceptron (MLP) networks for a short term prediction in terms of the mean square error. If the risk premium is used as a comparison criterion, then the SVR technique is as good as the MLP method or better.     

Call classification using recurrent neural networks, support vector machines and finite state automata

Our objective is spoken-language classification for helpdesk call routing using a scanning understanding and intelligent-system techniques. In particular, we examine simple recurrent networks, support-vector machines and finite-state transducers for their potential in this spoken-language-classification task and we describe an approach to classification of recorded operator-assistance telephone utterances. The main contribution of the paper is a comparison of a variety of techniques in the domain of call routing. Support-vector machines and transducers are shown to have some potential for spoken-language classification, but the performance of the neural networks indicates that a simple recurrent network performs best for helpdesk call routing. Sheila Garfield received a BSc (Hons) in computing from the University of Sunderland in 2000 where, as part of her programme of study, she completed a project associated with aphasic language processing. She received her PhD from the same university, in 2004, for a programme of work connected with hybrid intelligent systems and spoken-language processing. In her PhD thesis, she collaborated with British Telecom and suggested a novel hybrid system for call routing. Her research interests are natural language processing, hybrid systems, intelligent systems. Stefan Wermter holds the Chair in Intelligent Systems and is leading the Intelligent Systems Division at the University of Sunderland, UK. His research interests are intelligent systems, neural networks, cognitive neuroscience, hybrid systems, language processing and learning robots. He has a diploma from the University of Dortmund, Germany, an MSc from the University of Massachusetts, USA, and a PhD in habilitation from the University of Hamburg, Germany, all in Computer Science. He was a Research Scientist at Berkeley, CA, before joining the University of Sunderland. Professor Wermter has written edited, or contributed to 8 books and published about 80 articles on this research area.     

Improving forecasts of GARCH family models with the artificial neural networks: An application to the daily returns in Istanbul Stock Exchange

In the study, we discussed the ARCH/GARCH family models and enhanced them with artificial neural networks to evaluate the volatility of daily returns for 23.10.1987–22.02.2008 period in Istanbul Stock Exchange. We proposed ANN-APGARCH model to increase the forecasting performance of APGARCH model. The ANN-extended versions of the obtained GARCH models improved forecast results. It is noteworthy that daily returns in the ISE show strong volatility clustering, asymmetry and nonlinearity characteristics.     

Improving option price forecasts with neural networks and support vector regressions

Options are important financial derivatives that allow investors to control their investment risks in the securities market. Determining the theoretical price for an option, or option pricing, is regarded as one of the most important issues in financial research; a number of parametric and nonparametric option pricing approaches have been presented. While the objective of option pricing is to find the current fair price, for decision making, in contrast, the forecasting activity has to accurately predict the future option price without advance knowledge of the underlying asset price. In this paper, a simple and effective nonparametric method of forecasting option prices based on neural networks (NNs) and support vector regressions (SVRs) is presented. We first modified the improved conventional option pricing methods, allowing them to forecast the option prices. Second, we employed the NNs and SVRs to further decrease the forecasting errors of the parametric methods. Since the conventional methods mimic the trends of movement of the real option prices, using these methods in a first stage allows the NNs and SVRs to concentrate their power in nonlinear curve approximation to further reduce the forecasting errors in a second stage. Finally, extensive experimental studies with data from the Hong Kong option market demonstrated the ability of NNs and SVRs to improve forecast accuracy.     

Generalization performance of support vector machines and neural networks in runoff modeling

Effective one-day lead runoff prediction is one of the significant aspects of successful water resources management in arid region. For instance, reservoir and hydropower systems call for real-time or on-line site-specific forecasting of the runoff. In this research, we present a new data-driven model called support vector machines (SVMs) based on structural risk minimization principle, which minimizes a bound on a generalized risk (error), as opposed to the empirical risk minimization principle exploited by conventional regression techniques (e.g. ANNs). Thus, this stat-of-the-art methodology for prediction combines excellent generalization property and sparse representation that lead SVMs to be a very promising forecasting method. Further, SVM makes use of a convex quadratic optimization problem; hence, the solution is always unique and globally optimal. To demonstrate the aforementioned forecasting capability of SVM, one-day lead stream flow of Bakhtiyari River in Iran was predicted using the local climate and rainfall data. Moreover, the results were compared with those of ANN and ANN integrated with genetic algorithms (ANN-GA) models. The improvements in root mean squared error (RMSE) and squared correlation coefficient (R²) by SVM over both ANN models indicate that the prediction accuracy of SVM is at least as good as that of those models, yet in some cases actually better, as well as forecasting of high-value discharges.     

Integration of genetic fuzzy systems and artificial neural networks for stock price forecasting

Stock market prediction is regarded as a challenging task in financial time-series forecasting. The central idea to successful stock market prediction is achieving best results using minimum required input data and the least complex stock market model. To achieve these purposes this article presents an integrated approach based on genetic fuzzy systems (GFS) and artificial neural networks (ANN) for constructing a stock price forecasting expert system. At first, we use stepwise regression analysis (SRA) to determine factors which have most influence on stock prices. At the next stage we divide our raw data into k clusters by means of self-organizing map (SOM) neural networks. Finally, all clusters will be fed into independent GFS models with the ability of rule base extraction and data base tuning. We evaluate capability of the proposed approach by applying it on stock price data gathered from IT and Airlines sectors, and compare the outcomes with previous stock price forecasting methods using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results show that the proposed approach outperforms all previous methods, so it can be considered as a suitable tool for stock price forecasting problems.     

Predicting stock index increments by neural networks: The role of trading volume under different horizons

Recent studies show that there is a significant bidirectional nonlinear causality between stock return and trading volume. In this research, we reinforce this statement and the results presented in some earlier literatures and further investigate whether trading volume can significantly improve the prediction performance of neural networks under short-, medium-and long-term forecasting horizons. An application of component-based neural networks is used in forecasting one-step ahead stock index increments. The models are also augmented by the addition of different combinations of indices’ and component stocks’ trading volumes as inputs to form more general ex-ante forecasting models. Neural networks are trained with the data of stock returns and volumes from NASDAQ, DJIA and STI indices. Results indicate that augmented neural network models with trading volumes lead to improvements, at different extents, in forecasting performance under different terms of forecasting horizon. Empirical results indicate that trading volumes lead to modest improvements on the performance of stock index increments prediction under medium-and long-term horizons.     

Pulse-coupled neural networks and one-class support vector machines for geometry invariant texture retrieval

The pulse-coupled neural network (PCNN) has been widely used in image processing. The outputs of PCNN represent unique features of original stimulus and are invariant to translation, rotation, scaling and distortion, which is particularly suitable for feature extraction. In this paper, PCNN and intersecting cortical model (ICM), which is a simplified version of PCNN model, are applied to extract geometrical changes of rotation and scale invariant texture features, then an one-class support vector machine based classification method is employed to train and predict the features. The experimental results show that the pulse features outperform of the classic Gabor features in aspects of both feature extraction time and retrieval accuracy, and the proposed one-class support vector machine based retrieval system is more accurate and robust to geometrical changes than the traditional Euclidean distance based system.     

Credit rating analysis with support vector machines and neural networks: a market comparative study

Corporate credit rating analysis has attracted lots of research interests in the literature. Recent studies have shown that Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods achieved better performance than traditional statistical methods. This article introduces a relatively new machine learning technique, support vector machines (SVM), to the problem in attempt to provide a model with better explanatory power. We used backpropagation neural network (BNN) as a benchmark and obtained prediction accuracy around 80% for both BNN and SVM methods for the United States and Taiwan markets. However, only slight improvement of SVM was observed. Another direction of the research is to improve the interpretability of the AI-based models. We applied recent research results in neural network model interpretation and obtained relative importance of the input financial variables from the neural network models. Based on these results, we conducted a market comparative analysis on the differences of determining factors in the United States and Taiwan markets.     

Predicting moisture content of agricultural products using artificial neural networks

Drying of agricultural products is a significant process to store and use them for various purposes. There are few drying methods in agricultural industry, among them fluidized bed drying is widely employed due to its several advantages over the other methods. The prediction of drying characteristics with a small number of experiments is rather efficient since because of the fact that the drying experiments is time consuming and requires tedious work for a single agricultural product. Therefore, several methods such as deterministic, stochastic, artificial intelligence have been developed in order to predict the drying characteristics based on the experimental data obtained from the lab-scale fluidized bed drying system. In this paper, the artificial neural networks (ANN) method was used to predict the drying characteristics of agricultural products such as hazelnut, bean and chickpea. The ANN was trained using experimental data for three different products through the back propagation algorithm containing double input and single output parameters. The results showed fairly good agreement between predicted results by using ANN and the measured data taken under the same modeling conditions. The mean relative error (MRE) and mean absolute error (MAE) obtained when unknown data were applied to the networks was 3.92 and 0.033, respectively, which is very satisfactory.     

Online option price forecasting by using unscented Kalman filters and support vector machines

This study develops a hybrid model that combines unscented Kalman filters (UKFs) and support vector machines (SVMs) to implement an online option price predictor. In the hybrid model, the UKF is used to infer latent variables and make a prediction based on the Black–Scholes formula, while the SVM is employed to model the nonlinear residuals between the actual option prices and the UKF predictions. Taking option data traded in Taiwan Futures Exchange, this study examined the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model, and found that the new hybrid model is superior to pure SVM models or hybrid neural network models in terms of three types of options. This model can help investors for reducing their risk in online trading.     

Predicting bank financial failures using neural networks,support vector machines and multivariate statistical methods: A comparative analysis in the sample of savings deposit insurance fund (SDIF) transferred banks in Turkey

Bank failures threaten the economic system as a whole. Therefore, predicting bank financial failures is crucial to prevent and/or lessen the incoming negative effects on the economic system. This is originally a classification problem to categorize banks as healthy or non-healthy ones. This study aims to apply various neural network techniques, support vector machines and multivariate statistical methods to the bank failure prediction problem in a Turkish case, and to present a comprehensive computational comparison of the classification performances of the techniques tested. Twenty financial ratios with six feature groups including capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, earnings, liquidity and sensitivity to market risk (CAMELS) are selected as predictor variables in the study. Four different data sets with different characteristics are developed using official financial data to improve the prediction performance. Each data set is also divided into training and validation sets. In the category of neural networks, four different architectures namely multi-layer perceptron, competitive learning, self-organizing map and learning vector quantization are employed. The multivariate statistical methods; multivariate discriminant analysis, k-means cluster analysis and logistic regression analysis are tested. Experimental results are evaluated with respect to the correct accuracy performance of techniques. Results show that multi-layer perceptron and learning vector quantization can be considered as the most successful models in predicting the financial failure of banks.     

Predicting business failure using support vector machines with straightforward wrapper: A re-sampling study

Business failure prediction (BFP) is an effective tool to help financial institutions and relevant people to make the right decision in investments, especially in the current competitive environment. This topic belongs to a classification-type task, one of whose aims is to generate more accurate hit ratios. Support vector machine (SVM) is a statistical learning technique, whose advantage is its high generalization performance. The objective of this context is threefold. Firstly, SVM is used to predict business failure by utilizing a straightforward wrapper approach to help the model produce more accurate prediction. The wrapper approach is fulfilled by employing a forward feature selection method, composed of feature ranking and feature selection. Meanwhile, this work attempts to investigate the feasibility of using linear SVMs to select features for all SVMs in the wrapper since non-linear SVMs yield to over-fit the data. Finally, a robust re-sampling approach is used to evaluate model performances for the task of BFP in China. In the empirical research, performances of linear SVM, polynomial SVM, Gaussian SVM, and sigmoid SVM with the best filter of stepwise MDA, and wrappers respectively using linear SVM and non-linear SVMs as evaluating functions are to be compared. The results indicate that the non-linear SVM with radial basis function kernel and features selected by linear SVM compare significantly superiorly to all the other SVMs. Meanwhile, all SVMs with features selected by linear SVM produce at least as good performances as SVMs with other optimal features.     

Artificial neural networks and support vector machines with genetic algorithm for bearing fault detection

A study is presented to compare the performance of bearing fault detection using two different classifiers, namely, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SMVs). The time-domain vibration signals of a rotating machine with normal and defective bearings are processed for feature extraction. The extracted features from original and preprocessed signals are used as inputs to the classifiers for two-class (normal or fault) recognition. The classifier parameters, e.g., the number of nodes in the hidden layer in case of ANNs and the radial basis function kernel parameter (width) in case of SVMs along with the selection of input features are optimized using genetic algorithms. The classifiers are trained with a subset of the experimental data for known machine conditions and are tested using the remaining set of data. The procedure is illustrated using the experimental vibration data of a rotating machine. The roles of different vibration signals and signal preprocessing techniques are investigated. The results show the effectiveness of the features and the classifiers in detection of machine condition.     

Maximum and minimum stock price forecasting of Brazilian power distribution companies based on artificial neural networks

Time series forecasting has been widely used to determine future prices of stocks, and the analysis and modeling of finance time series is an important task for guiding investors’ decisions and trades. Nonetheless, the prediction of prices by means of a time series is not trivial and it requires a thorough analysis of indexes, variables and other data. In addition, in a dynamic environment such as the stock market, the non-linearity of the time series is a pronounced characteristic, and this immediately affects the efficacy of stock price forecasts. Thus, this paper aims at proposing a methodology that forecasts the maximum and minimum day stock prices of three Brazilian power distribution companies, which are traded in the São Paulo Stock Exchange BM&FBovespa. When compared to the other papers already published in the literature, one of the main contributions and novelty of this paper is the forecast of the range of closing prices of Brazilian power distribution companies’ stocks. As a result of its application, investors may be able to define threshold values for their stock trades. Moreover, such a methodology may be of great interest to home brokers who do not possess ample knowledge to invest in such companies. The proposed methodology is based on the calculation of distinct features to be analysed by means of attribute selection, defining the most relevant attributes to predict the maximum and minimum day stock prices of each company. Then, the actual prediction was carried out by Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), which had their performances evaluated by means of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) calculations. The proposed methodology for addressing the problem of prediction of maximum and minimum day stock prices for Brazilian distribution companies is effective. In addition, these results were only possible to be achieved due to the combined use of attribute selection by correlation analysis and ANNs.     

Predicting stock market returns from malicious attacks: A comparative analysis of vector autoregression and time-delayed neural networks

With the growing importance of Internet-based businesses, malicious code attacks on information technology infrastructures have been on the rise. Prior studies have indicated that these malicious attacks are associated with detrimental economic effects on the attacked firms. On the other hand, we conjecture that more intense malicious attacks boost the stock price of information security firms. Furthermore, we use artificial neural networks and vector autoregression analyses as complementary methods to study the relationship between the stock market returns of information security firms and the intensity of malicious attacks, computed as the product of the number of malicious attacks and their severity levels. A major contribution of this work is the resulting time-delayed artificial neural network model that allows stock return predictions and is particularly useful as an investment decision support system for hedge funds and other investors, whose portfolios are at risk of losing market value during malicious attacks.