Streaming parallel variational Bayesian supervised factor analysis for adaptive soft sensor modeling with big process data

Time-varying and state shifting are two of the main process factors that cause poor prediction performance of soft sensors. Adaptive soft sensor is commonly an alternative practice to ensure high predictive accuracy. However, the large scale of process data often leads to inefficiency of model updating. In this paper, a streaming variational Bayesian supervised factor analysis (S-VBSFA) model is first proposed to capture the process time-varying and state shifting features through online updating of the posterior of model parameters. During the updating process, the symmetric Kullback–Leibler (SKL) divergence is utilized to determine priors of the next variation Bayesian inference. To improve the modeling efficiency for large-scale process data, the parallel computing strategy is further applied to the streaming model. As a result, the proposed streaming parallel VBSFA (SP-VBSFA) algorithm not only relieves the computing pressure of modeling big process data, but also improves the prediction accuracy and further reduces the tracking time delay for process variations. Two case studies demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method, compared to conventional methods.     

软测量技术的数据预处理方法研究

针对软测量技术在线实施时的数据预处理问题,提出了基于聚类分析的过失误差侦破方法。该方法不需过程的先验知识和假设,直接面向数据,可十分方便地在线实现。将该方法与滑动平均滤波算法相结合,可以有效处理过程测量数据的过失误差和随机误差,从而提高软仪表估计的精度。在二元精馏塔底产品组分浓度软测量仪表在线进行的仿真中,应用该方法进行数据预处理,使进入软测量模型的过程数据更接近真实值,取得了很好的效果。     

无线传感器网络中基于移动智能体的目标追踪

就无线传感器网络中的目标追踪问题而言,减少传感器之间的冲突、提高追踪精度是两个重要问题．为此,采用移动智能体方法协同声音传感器追踪移动目标．当目标出现时,负责追踪的智能体产生,并随目标移动而移动．为减小在选举移动智能体的过程中出现的冲突,采用基于概率的选举策略,给出概率函数的设置方法．在目标关联过程中,时间窗口的大小对算法的追踪精度而言至关重要,经过分析,给出了设置时间窗口大小的基本原则．仿真结果表明设计恰当的随机函数和时间窗口可以有效地减小冲突、提高追踪的精度．     

基于超图正则化的域适应偏最小二乘多工况软测量模型

针对流程工业中,因多工况导致数据分布变化引起传统软测量模型预测性能恶化问题,本文提出一种基于超图正则化的域适应多工况软测量回归模型框架.首先,采用非线性迭代偏最小二乘回归算法为基模型,在潜变量空间利用历史工况数据重构当前工况数据,以增强工况间的相关性,有效减小数据分布差异;同时,对重构系数施加低秩稀疏约束,保留了数据的局部和全局子空间结构;其次,通过超图拉普拉斯正则项对域适应潜变量求解过程进行约束,避免在寻找潜变量过程中破坏数据结构.最后,利用交替方向乘子法优化求解模型参数.在多个数据集上的实验表明,本文方法在多工况环境下可有效提高软测量模型的预测精度和泛化性能.     

基于递推PLS的自适应钢温软测量模型

针对轧钢加热炉系统具有多变量、非线性、大滞后、交叉耦合等特点,难以预估钢坯出口温度的难题,以块式递推偏最小二乘算法为基础,结合移动窗口和遗忘因子法,建立了出炉钢坯温度和过程变量之间的预测模型.在某钢厂的实际应用表明,该钢温软测量模型具有较好的自适应能力,能提前15 min预测钢坯出口温度,且预测误差满足工业应用的精度要求.     

基于混合变分自编码器回归模型的软测量建模方法EI北大核心CSCD

近年来,变分自编码器(Variational auto-encoder,VAE)模型由于在概率数据描述和特征提取能力等方面的优越性,受到了学术界和工业界的广泛关注,并被引入到工业过程监测、诊断和软测量建模等应用中.然而,传统基于VAE的软测量方法使用高斯分布作为潜在变量的分布,限制了其对复杂工业过程数据,尤其是多模态数据的建模能力.为了解决这一问题,本论文提出了一种混合变分自编码器回归模型(Mixture variational autoencoder regression,MVAER),并将其应用于复杂多模态工业过程的软测量建模.具体来说,该方法采用高斯混合模型来描述VAE的潜在变量分布,通过非线性映射将复杂多模态数据映射到潜在空间,学习各模态下的潜在变量,获取原始数据的有效特征表示.同时,建立潜在特征表示与关键质量变量之间的回归模型,实现软测量应用.通过一个数值例子和一个实际工业案例,对所提模型的性能进行了评估,验证了该模型的有效性和优越性.     

Online quality prediction for cobalt oxalate synthesis process using least squares support vector regression approach with dual updating

Online measurement of the average particle size is typically unavailable in industrial cobalt oxalate synthesis process, soft sensor prediction of the important quality variable is therefore required. Cobalt oxalate synthesis process is a complex multivariable and highly nonlinear process. In this paper, an effective soft sensor based on least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) with dual updating is developed for prediction the average particle size. In this soft sensor model, the methods of moving window LSSVR (MWLSSVR) updating and the model output offset updating is activated based on model performance assessment. Feasibility and efficiency of the proposed soft sensor are demonstrated through the application to an industrial cobalt oxalate synthesis process.     

Bridging systems theory and data science: A unifying review of dynamic latent variable analytics and process monitoring

This paper is concerned with data science and analytics as applied to data from dynamic systems for the purpose of monitoring, prediction, and inference. Collinearity is inevitable in industrial operation data. Therefore, we focus on latent variable methods that achieve dimension reduction and collinearity removal. We present a new dimension reduction expression of state space framework to unify dynamic latent variable analytics for process data, dynamic factor models for econometrics, subspace identification of multivariate dynamic systems, and machine learning algorithms for dynamic feature analysis. We unify or differentiate them in terms of model structure, objectives with constraints, and parsimony of parameterization. The Kalman filter theory in the latent space is used to give a system theory foundation to some empirical treatments in data analytics. We provide a unifying review of the connections among the dynamic latent variable methods, dynamic factor models, subspace identification methods, dynamic feature extractions, and their uses for prediction and process monitoring. Both unsupervised dynamic latent variable analytics and the supervised counterparts are reviewed. Illustrative examples are presented to show the similarities and differences among the analytics in extracting features for prediction and monitoring.     

一种基于D-S 和ARIMA 的多模型软测量方法

针对传统软测量方法存在的预测性能差、融合能力低等缺点, 提出一种基于证据理论(D-S) 合成规则和差分自回归滑动平均(ARIMA) 模型的多模型软测量方法. 首先利用自适应模糊核聚类方法和最小二乘支持向量机建立多个子模型; 然后利用D-S 合成规则构造的概率分配函数作为权值因子, 对子模型输出进行融合以得到多模型的输出; 最后结合ARIMA 模型对静态多模型输出进行动态校正. 仿真研究与工业应用的结果表明, 所提出的方法具有良好的预测性能和融合能力.

     

多尺度PCA在传感器故障诊断中的应用研究

A multiscale principal component analysis method is proposed for sensor fault detection and identification. After decomposition of sensor signal by wavelet transform, the coarse-scale coef-ficients from the sensors with strong correlation are employed to establish the principal component analysis model. A moving window is designed to monitor data from each sensor using the model.For the purpose of sensor fault detection and identification, the data in the window is decomposed with wavelet transform to acquire the coarse-scale coefficients firstly, and the square prediction error is used to detect the failure. Then the sensor validity index is introduced to identify faulty sensor,which provides a quantitative identifying index rather than qualitative contrast given by the approach with contribution. Finally, the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by sensors of industrial boiler.     

基于自适应高效递推规范变量分析的多模过程软传感器建模

由于多模过程中各模式间的均值和协方差发生了改变,多变量单模高斯分布的基本假设不再成立.基于递推方法的多模过程软传感器建模存在两点问题:其一,递推建模方法不能及时的跟踪多模过程的改变;其二,递推建模方法的在线计算负荷非常高.为了解决上述问题,本文提出了一种基于自适应高效递推规范变量分析的多模过程软传感器建模方法.首先,采用指数权重滑动平均来更新过去观测矢量的协方差矩阵;然后,利用基于模型输出误差范数的可变遗忘因子来跟踪多模过程的动态变化;最后,通过引入一阶干扰理论(firstorder perturbation,FOP)来实现递推奇异值分解,与常规奇异值分解相比递推奇异值算法的计算负荷显著降低.将提出的方法用于田纳西伊斯曼(tennessee eastman,TE)化工过程进行仿真验证,其结果表明了该方法的可行性和精确性.     

基于JITL的电量预测高斯软测量建模研究

为了解决工业过程受本身结构特征、外界因素等影响而存在严重的非线性和时变性等问题,本文提出了一种基于输入输出综合性相似度指标的即时学习高斯过程软测量建模方法。在该方法中,将样本数据进行归一化处理,首先利用传统的基于距离和角度的相似度指标分别对样本输入输出变量进行相似度计算,进而对相似度进行综合,最后选择出最终的相关样本集,建立高斯过程回归软测量模型,将所提基于输入输出相似度指标的即时学习高斯工程软测量模型应用于城市日用电量数据的预测。研究结果表明,所提出的软测量建模方法可以实现对日用电量数据的高精度预测且预测结果具有较小的误差。因此可表明该方法可在电量预测中具有一定的应用可靠性,可以在电力市场预测分析中得到广泛的应用。     

Fast and reliable computational strategy for developing a rigorous model-driven soft sensor of dynamic molecular weight distribution

Key polymer properties are substantially directly related to the polymer molecular weight distribution (MWD). On-line monitoring and prediction of dynamic MWD profiles are highly important for on-line quality control of polymerization processes. In this study, a fast and reliable computational strategy for an equation-oriented model-based soft sensor for the high-density polyethylene grade transition process is developed. The simultaneous collocation approach is adopted to discretize the dynamic model. A novel moving finite element method is proposed to improve the on-line performance of the derived large-scale nonlinear equation systems. The sensitivity information of the nonlinear equation systems contributes to a convergence enhancement strategy for the sensor. The prediction accuracy and computational efficiency are demonstrated using industrial data. A potential application to extend the polymerization process with changeable flowsheet is also tested through simulation.     

基于混合SVR-PLS方法的丙烯腈收率软测量建模

为了更有效地处理过程非线性、多输入和数据共线性等复杂特性,提高模型的推广能力和精度,提出了混合支持向量回归机-偏最小二乘法(SVR—PLS)方法．该方法兼具SVR和PLS的优点．用PLS进行特征提取．用SVR建立PLS的内部模型．对工业丙烯腈生产过程丙烯腈收率软测量建模的应用表明．采用该方法建立的软测量模型．在模型精度、推广能力等方面明显优于一些传统软测量建模方法．满足工业应用要求．     

Dynamic historical information incorporated attention deep learning model for industrial soft sensor modeling

Due to the limitations of sampling conditions and sampling techniques in many real industrial processes, the process data under different sampling conditions subject to different sampling frequencies, which leads to irregular interval sampling characteristics of the entire process data. The dynamic historical data information reflecting the production status under irregular sampling frequency has an important influence on the performance of data feature extraction. However, the existing soft sensor modeling methods based on deep learning do not consider introducing dynamic historical information into the feature extraction process. To combat this issue, a novel attention-based dynamic stacked autoencoder networks (AD-SAE) for soft sensor modeling is proposed in this paper. First, the sliding window technology and attention mechanism based on position coding are introduced to select dynamic historical samples and calculate the contribution of different historical samples to the current sample, respectively. Then, AD-SAE combines obtained historical sample information and current sample information as the input of the network for deep feature extraction and industrial soft sensor modeling. The experimental results on the actual hydrocracking process data set show that the proposed method has better performance than traditional methods.     

基于动态多向局部离群因子的在线故障检测*

针对化工间歇生产过程的多模态问题,为了提高故障检测性能,将滑动窗口技术与局部离群因子(LOF)算法相结合,提出了一种新的动态多向局部离群因子(Dynamic Multiway Local Outlier Factor,DMLOF)用于工业过程在线故障检测的方法。首先将间歇过程数据展开成二维数据,利用滑动窗口技术分别在时间片内运用局部离群因子算法计算LOF统计量,并利用核密度估计(KDF)确定控制限。其次,对于新来数据标准化处理后分别在相应窗口内投影,确定新数据的LOF统计量并与控制限比较进行故障检测。最后通过青霉素发酵过程的仿真实验结果验证了该算法的有效性。     

Evaluation of a pattern matching method for the Tennessee Eastman challenge process

In this paper, we evaluate multivariate pattern matching methods for the Tennessee Eastman (TE) challenge process. The pattern matching methodology includes principal component analysis based similarity factors and dissimilarity factor of Kano et al., that compare current and historical data. In our similarity factor approach, the start and end times of disturbances are not known a priori and the data are compared by moving a window though the historical data. Comparisons with methods used in earlier case studies of the TE challenge process show advantages of using the proposed similarity factor approach.     

Optimal selection of soft sensor inputs for batch distillation columns using principal component analysis

In this paper, a novel methodology based on principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to select the most suitable secondary process variables to be used as soft sensor inputs. In the proposed approach, a matrix is defined that measures the instantaneous sensitivity of each secondary variable to the primary variables to be estimated. The most sensitive secondary variables are then extracted from this matrix by exploiting the properties of PCA, and they are used as input variables for the development of a regression model suitable for on-line implementation.This method has been evaluated by developing a soft sensor that uses temperature measurements and a process regression model to estimate on-line the product compositions for a simulated batch distillation process. The identification of the optimal soft sensor inputs for this case study has been discussed with respect to the definition of the sensitivity matrix, the data sampling interval, the presence of measurement noise, and the size of the input set. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach can effectively identify the size and configuration of the input set that leads to the optimal estimation performance of the soft sensor.     

传感器网络中的分布式滚动时域状态估计

利用分布式滚动时域方法对无线传感器网络的状态估计问题进行研究,给出了基于量化测量值的滚动时域估计算法。在无线传感器网络的环境下处理分布式状态估计问题时,减少通信的成本是非常重要的一个环节,需要将观测值量化后再传送。以往的滚动时域估计方法无法处理量化观测值的状态估计问题,而本文的方法考虑了最严格的观测值量化情况即传感器只发送一个比特至融合中心的状态估计问题。与其它传感器网络中的状态估计方法相比,该方法减少了每一步的计算量。仿真结果验证了该算法的有效性。