Updating robust reliability using structural test data

The concept of robust reliability is defined to take into account uncertainties from structural modeling in addition to the uncertain excitation that a structure will experience during its lifetime. A Bayesian probabilistic methodology for system identification is integrated with probabilistic structural analysis tools for the purpose of updating the assessment of the robust reliability based on dynamic test data. Methods for updating the structural reliability for both identifiable and unidentifiable models are presented. Application of the methodology to a simple beam model of a single-span bridge with soil-structure interaction at the abutments, including a case with a tuned-mass damper attached to the deck, shows that the robust reliabilities computed before and after updating with “measured” dynamic data can differ significantly.     

A practical approach for predicting fatigue reliability under random cyclic loading

The purpose of this paper is to provide a simple approach for reliability analysis based on fatigue or overstress failure modes of mechanical components, and explain how this integrated method carries out spectral fatigue damage and failure reliability analysis. In exploring the ability to predict spectral fatigue life and assess the reliability under a specified dynamics environment, a methodology for reliability assessment and its corresponding fatigue life prediction of mechanical components using a supply-demand interference approach is developed in this paper. Since the methodology couples dynamics analysis and stochastic analysis for fatigue damage and reliability prediction, the conversion of the duty cycle history for the reliability study of an individual component is also presented. Using the proposed methodology, mechanical component reliability can be predicted according to different mission requirements. For an explanation of this methodology, a probabilistic method of deciding the relationship between the allowable stress or fatigue endurance limit and reliability is also presented.     

Probabilistic Failure Prediction of High Strength Steel Rocket Motor Cases

In traditional deterministic analysis, uncertainties are either ignored or accounted by applying conservative assumptions. In those cases, only the mean values or nominal values are used in the analysis. Currently, the operating pressure of high strength steel rocket motor cases is predicted by arbitrarily assumed safety factor based on experience. This leads to over weight of motor cases and cost. Hence a methodology is required to predict the operating pressure more accurately by considering optimal safety factor. This paper presents the probabilistic failure assessment methodology to predict the safety factor for the specified reliability using various failure pressure prediction equations. In this study, the scatter in the yield strength, ultimate strength, and thickness of the structure is considered. Monte–Carlo simulation method is used to perform the probabilistic failure assessment. A suitable failure pressure prediction equation is identified among thirteen equations using stress–strength interference theory based on the statistical measure of the predicted and literature test failure pressure. The reliability-based safety factor is computed for the specified reliability with the use of identified failure pressure prediction equation. The safe operating pressure of steel rocket motor cases is computed for the specified reliability levels.     

Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction and Structural Reliability Evaluation of Turbine Rotors Integrating an Automated Ultrasonic Inspection System

The paper presents a general method and procedure for fatigue reliability assessment integrating automated ultrasonic non-destructive inspections. The basic structure of an automated ultrasonic inspection system is presented. Fatigue reliability assessment methodology is developed using uncertainty quantification models for detection, sizing, and fatigue model parameters. The probability of detection model is based on a classical log-linear model coupling the actual flaw size with the ultrasonic inspection reported size. Using probabilistic modeling, the distribution of the actual flaw size is derived. Reliability assessment procedure using ultrasonic inspection data is suggested. A steam turbine rotor example with realistic ultrasonic inspection data is presented to demonstrate the overall method. Calculations and interpretations of assessment results based on risk recommendations for industrial applications are given.     

Damage tolerance reliability analysis of automotive spot-welded joints

This paper develops a damage tolerance reliability analysis methodology for automotive spot-welded joints under multi-axial and variable amplitude loading history. The total fatigue life of a spot weld is divided into two parts, crack initiation and crack propagation. The multi-axial loading history is obtained from transient response finite element analysis of a vehicle model. A three-dimensional finite element model of a simplified joint with four spot welds is developed for static stress/strain analysis. A probabilistic Miner's rule is combined with a randomized strain-life curve family and the stress/strain analysis result to develop a strain-based probabilistic fatigue crack initiation life prediction for spot welds. Afterwards, the fatigue crack inside the base material sheet is modeled as a surface crack. Then a probabilistic crack growth model is combined with the stress analysis result to develop a probabilistic fatigue crack growth life prediction for spot welds. Both methods are implemented with MSC/NASTRAN and MSC/FATIGUE software, and are useful for reliability assessment of automotive spot-welded joints against fatigue and fracture.     

A global view on ARAMIS, a risk assessment methodology for industries in the framework of the SEVESO II directive

The ARAMIS methodology was developed in an European project co-funded in the fifth Framework Programme of the European Commission with the objective to answer the specific requirements of the SEVESO II directive. It offers an alternative to purely deterministic and probabilistic approaches to risk assessment of process plants. It also answers the needs of the various stakeholders interested by the results of the risk assessment for land use or emergency planning, enforcement or, more generally, public decision-making. The methodology is divided into the following major steps: identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), identification of the safety barriers and assessment of their performances, evaluation of safety management efficiency to barrier reliability, identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS), assessment and mapping of the risk severity of reference scenarios and of the vulnerability of the plant surroundings. The methodology was tested during five case studies, which provided useful information about the applicability of the method and, by identifying the most sensitive parts of it opened way to new research activity for an improved industrial safety.     

Probabilistic fatigue crack growth analysis of spot‐welded joints

This paper presents a probabilistic fatigue crack growth life prediction methodology for spot‐welded joints under variable amplitude loading history. The loading is multi‐axial and is obtained from transient response analysis of a vehicle model using finite‐element analysis. A three‐dimensional (3D) finite element model of a simplified joint with four spot welds is developed, and the static stress analysis of this joint is performed. Then the fatigue crack inside the base material sheet is modelled as a surface crack. Probabilistic crack growth model is combined with the stress analysis result to develop a probabilistic fatigue crack growth life prediction methodology for spot welds. This new method is implemented with MSC/NASTRAN and MSC/FATIGUE and is useful for the reliability assessment of spot‐welded joints against fatigue crack growth.     

Nodal probabilistic production cost simulation considering transmission system unavailabilty

A nodal probabilistic production cost simulation method is described for power system long-term expansion planning considering unavailability and delivery limitation constraints of the transmission system. This new nodal production cost simulation model includes capacity constraints and unavailabilities of generators as well as transmission lines. This simulation methodology comes from the nodal composite power system equivalent load duration curve (CMELDC), based on a new effective load model at load points developed by the authors. The nodal CMELDC can be obtained from convolution integral processing of the outage capacity probability distribution function of the fictitious generator and the original LDC. It is expected that the new simulation model based on the nodal CMELDC proposed here will provide solutions to many problems based on nodal and decentralised operation and control of electric power systems under a competition environment. The nodal CMELDC based on the new model at load points can extend application areas of nodal probabilistic production cost simulation, probabilistic congestion cost assessment, analytical outage cost assessment and nodal reliability evaluation and so on at load points. The characteristics and effectiveness of this new proposed methodology are illustrated by a small system case study using a network flow and enumeration method.     

Determination of design alternatives and performance criteria for safety systems in a nuclear power plant via simulated annealing

This study presents an efficient methodology that derives design alternatives and performance criteria for safety functions/systems in commercial nuclear power plants. Determination of the design alternatives and intermediate-level performance criteria is posed as a reliability allocation problem. The reliability allocation is performed in a single step by means of the concept of two-tier noninferior solutions in the objective and risk spaces within the top-level probabilistic safety criteria (PSC). Two kinds of two-tier noninferior solutions are obtained: desirable design alternatives and intolerable intermediate-level PSC of safety functions/systems.The weighted Chebyshev norm (WCN) approach with an improved Metropolis algorithm in simulated annealing is used to find the two-tier noninferior solutions. This is very efficient in searching for the global minimum of the difficult multiobjective optimization problem (MOP) which results from strong nonlinearity of a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model and nonconvexity of the problem. The methodology developed in this study can be used as an efficient design tool for desirable safety function/system alternatives and for the determination of intermediate-level performance criteria.The methodology is applied to a realistic streamlined PSA model that is developed based on the PSA results of the Surry Unit 1 nuclear power plant. The methodology developed in this study is very efficient in providing the intolerable intermediate-level PSC and desirable design alternatives of safety functions/systems.     

Different sets of reliability data and success criteria in a probabilistic safety assessment for a plant producing nitroglycol

The lack of plant-specific reliability data for probabilistic safety assessments usually makes it necessary to use generic reliability data. Justifiably different assessments of plant behaviour (success criteria) lead to different models of plant systems. Both affect the numerical results of a probabilistic safety assessment. It is shown how these results change, if different sets of reliability data and different choices of success criteria for the safety system are employed. Differences in results may influence decisions taken on their basis and become especially important if compliance with a safety goal has to be proved, e.g. a safety integrity level. For the purpose of demonstration an accident sequence from a probabilistic safety assessment of a plant producing nitroglycol is used. The analysis relies on plant-specific reliability data so that it provides a good yardstick for comparing it with results obtained using generic data. The superiority of plant-specific data, which should of course be acquired, cannot be doubted. Nevertheless, plant safety can be improved even if generic data are used. However, the assignment to a safety integrity level may be affected by differences in both data and success criteria.     

岸桥起重机随机风振疲劳可靠性分析

基于时域方法研究岸桥起重机的风振疲劳可靠性问题。采用谐波叠加法给出了符合Davenport风速谱的多维脉动风速时间历程,基于Bernoulli方程得到相应的风压时间历程,并将相应的风压荷载作用于有限元模型,采用雨流计数法处理结构关键点的应力响应。基于疲劳失效的Basquin方程、Miner线性累积损伤准则和Goodman平均应力修正方程导出疲劳累积损伤的概率模型。考虑平均风速的概率分布,提出了基于概率累积损伤机制的风振疲劳可靠度和可靠性寿命计算方法,为岸桥起重机的风振疲劳可靠性分析作了一些有益的探索和研究。     

Fragility curve probabilistic model applied to durability and long term mechanical damage of masonry

In view of preserving the historical heritage, the deterioration processes of masonry materials and the long term damage of multiple leaf historic buildings is studied from an experimental and a numerical point of view. Durability tests and pseudo-creep tests have been carried out and interpreted through probabilistic models for the service life prediction. The precocious recognition of structural critical states will allow to design repair and strengthening interventions and to prevent total or partial failure of the constructions.     

基于概率的高层建筑地震需求模型与风险评估EI北大核心CSCD

提出了基于贝叶斯理论的地震风险评估方法,综合考虑了地震危险性模型、输入地震动记录、结构参数和需求模型的不确定性,并以云南大理地区1970年-2017年间的地震数据为研究基础进行了详细讨论。在传统基于概率地震危险性分析方法的基础上,提出了基于贝叶斯理论的地震危险性分析方法,通过贝叶斯更新准则,确定了地震概率模型中未知参数的后验概率分布;通过贝叶斯理论建立了基于概率的地震需求模型,并在易损性中考虑了需求模型认知不确定性的影响;以42层钢框架-RC核心筒建筑为例,开展了地震作用下的风险评估。研究表明:基于贝叶斯理论的地震危险性分析方法,能够获得更为合理的危险性模型;忽略需求模型中参数不确定性的影响,将错误估计结构的地震易损性;不同加载工况将对高层建筑的地震风险产生显著影响。提出的概率风险评估方法,提供了可以考虑固有不确定性和认知不确定性的有效途径,有助于推动高性能结构地震韧性评价和设计理论的发展。     

Fatigue reliability assessment of offshore structures

Substantial laboratory and field experience has indicated that, owing to the large number of wave stress cyles experienced by offshore steel structures, fatigue cracking should be the main consideration of structural reliability assessment. This paper presents the latest implementation of probabilistic fracture mechanics modelling for fatigue reliability analysis of the most common offshore structural component, the welded tubular joints. Coupled with the recent findings in inspection reliability, effective maintenance and integrity monitoring policies can be formulated. Examples of many practical situations have been analysed to illustrate the applications of the methodology.     

Reliability‐Based Design Optimization Considering Probabilistic Degradation Behavior

This article proposes a reliability‐based design optimization methodology by incorporating probabilistic degradation in the fatigue resistance of material. The probabilistic damage accumulation is treated as a measure of degradation in the fatigue resistance of material and modeled as nonstationary probabilistic process to capture the time‐dependent distribution parameters of damage accumulation. The proposed probabilistic damage accumulation model is then incorporated into reliability‐based design optimization model by building a dynamic reliability model inferred from the stress–strength interference model. The proposed approach facilitates to capture the dynamic degradation behavior while optimizing design variables at an early design stage to improve the overall reliability of product. The applicability of the proposed approach is demonstrated using suitable examples. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fire safety assessment and optimal design of passive fire protection for offshore structures

The article presents a unified probabilistic approach to fire safety assessment and optimal design of passive fire protection on offshore topside structures. The methodology was developed by integrating quantitative risk analysis (QRA) techniques with the modem methods of structural system reliability analysis (SRA) and reliability based design optimisation (RBDO). Reliability analysis methodologies are presented for both plated (e.g. fire and blast walls) and skeletal structures (deck framing), which take into account uncertainties in fire and blast loading, thermal and mechanical properties of the steel and insulation. Probability of component and system failure are evaluated using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM). The optimisation of passive fire protection is performed such that the total expected cost of the protection system is minimised while satisfying reliability constraints.     

脉动风速随机过程的正交展开

根据脉动风速功率谱的两种不同统计方法,定义了脉动风速Davenport谱的等价功率谱.在此基础上,构造了虚拟脉动风位移随机过程.利用Karhunen-Loeve分解的基本原理,对虚拟脉动风位移随机过程进行正交展开,进而获得脉动风速随机过程的正交展开表达式.研究的主要目的在于:希望用少量的独立随机变量来描述脉动风速随机过程的主要概率特性,为工程结构的抗风动力响应分析及动力可靠性研究奠定了基础.实例分析表明,本文的研究思路是可行的.     

Operating reserve capacity requirements and pricing in deregulated markets using probabilistic techniques

A new probabilistic methodology to evaluate the operating reserve requirements of power systems in deregulated energy markets is presented. The main objectives are the assessment of reserve requirements for all submarkets (i.e. regulation, spinning, non-spinning and replacement), and the determination of the maximum acceptable bid prices in these submarkets and eliminating possible speculations. In order to balance reliability and costs, the proposed methodology is based on merging the loss of load cost index into the capacity bidding process for all operating reserve submarkets, thus avoiding the a priori establishment of an arbitrary risk index as a reference criterion. The results of studies using different test systems, including the IEEE-reliability test system and a configuration of the Brazilian South-Southeastern system, are presented and discussed     

Reliability evaluation of deregulated electric power systems for planning applications

In a deregulated electric power utility industry in which a competitive electricity market can influence system reliability, market risks cannot be ignored. This paper (1) proposes an analytical probabilistic model for reliability evaluation of competitive electricity markets and (2) develops a methodology for incorporating the market reliability problem into HLII reliability studies. A Markov state space diagram is employed to evaluate the market reliability. Since the market is a continuously operated system, the concept of absorbing states is applied to it in order to evaluate the reliability. The market states are identified by using market performance indices and the transition rates are calculated by using historical data. The key point in the proposed method is the concept that the reliability level of a restructured electric power system can be calculated using the availability of the composite power system (HLII) and the reliability of the electricity market. Two case studies are carried out over Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) to illustrate interesting features of the proposed methodology.     

Reliability assessment for systems suffering common cause failure based on Bayesian networks and proportional hazards model

The Bayesian network (BN) is an efficient tool for probabilistic modeling and causal inference, and it has gained considerable attentions in the field of reliability assessment. The common cause failure (CCF) is simultaneous failure of multiple elements in a system under a common cause, and it is a common phenomenon in engineering systems with dependent elements. Several models and methods have been proposed for modeling and assessment of complex systems with CCF. In this paper, a new reliability assessment method is proposed for the systems suffering from CCF in a dynamic environment. The CCF among components is characterized by a BN, which allows for bidirectional reasoning. A proportional hazards model is applied to capture the dynamic working environment of components and then the reliability function of the system is obtained. The proposed method is validated through an illustrative example, and some comparative studies are also presented.