Probable water crisis in Thrace and Istanbul in the near future and a sustainable strategy to overcome it

Abstract

The Thrace Region of Turkey, a passageway from Asia to Europe, which includes the most populated city of Istanbul, is threatened by a water crisis in the very near future. The population of Istanbul alone is forecast to reach 30 millions by the year 2025, requiring 3 billion m³ of water, nearly equal to the total fresh water resources of the region, 3.4 billion m³. In this study, we consider not only the proportion of the available water resources to be allocated for each competing sector, civil, agriculture and industry, but also attempt to outline integrated water management strategies for each sector. The potential of small earth reservoirs, more than 1,500 in number, is emphasised as a way to develop fresh water resources. Water saving policies in the cities and ethics for water use are also briefly discussed.     

黄河流域粮食生产水足迹及虚拟水流动影响评价EI北大核心CSCD

为分析黄河流域粮食生产用水的可持续性,引入水足迹和虚拟水相关理论方法,对研究区主要粮食生产水足迹及粮食贸易伴生的虚拟水流动格局进行了量化解析,并对未来粮食生产水足迹进行了预估。结果表明:2011—2016年,全流域粮食生产总水足迹和单位水足迹分别由460亿m^(3)和1.20 m^(3)/kg降为402 m^(3)和0.93 m^(3)/kg,均呈下降趋势;从粮食贸易伴生的虚拟水流动特点来看,流域全口径粮食虚拟水从2011年的110.7亿m^(3)减小到2016年的50.3亿m^(3),呈输入态势;除稻谷之外的粮食虚拟水由82.6亿m^(3)增加到193.4亿m^(3),呈输出态势;在流域不同气候情景下,2035年粮食生产总水足迹为481.9亿~518.7亿m^(3),其中绿水足迹增幅达20%,而蓝水足迹增长不显著;未来流域内粮食输出量的增加会进一步加剧本地农业生产的用水矛盾,但粮食灌溉总用水量的增速可能放缓。     

京津冀地区主要农作物生产水足迹研究

利用京津冀地区(2个直辖市、11个地级市)气象及农业基础数据,采用彭曼公式与CROPWAT软件相结合的计算方法,分析了2014年京津冀地区主要农作物的生产水足迹。结果表明:小麦在整个生长期需水量主要以蓝水足迹为主,玉米在整个生长期主要以绿水足迹为主;2014年京津冀地区主要农作物总的生产水足迹为437.03×108m3,其中绿水足迹为137.71×108m3,蓝水足迹为176.03×108m3,灰水足迹为123.30×108m3;从京津冀地区主要农作物总的生产水足迹空间格局上来看,沧州、保定、邯郸和石家庄地区的主要农作物生产水足迹较大,是水资源调控的主要地区。     

水足迹视角下辽宁省春玉米生育期水土资源匹配特征研究

随着气候变化及种植结构调整,农业水土资源配置状况发生改变,研究农业水土资源匹配特征对农业可持续发展具有重要意义。基于作物生产水足迹视角,采用广义农业水土资源匹配系数的计算方法,对 1985—2018年辽宁省春玉米生育期的水土资源匹配特征进行分析。结果表明：1985—2018 年间辽宁省春玉米农业水土资源匹配系数变化波动明显,总体以 14 m³/（hm²·a）增长,多年平均农业水土资源匹配系数值为 5733 m³/hm²。同时,1985—2018 年间辽宁省春玉米农业水土资源匹配状况呈现向好趋势,东部农业水土资源匹配良好的地区增多,西北部农业水土资源匹配较差的范围缩小。未来辽宁省玉米种植结构调整,应立足各地区农业水土资源匹配特征,构建水土资源空间均衡的农业生产体系。     

Economic Value of Water in the Korean Manufacturing Industry

Water is important to manufacturing firms because industrial water is used for a variety of purposes as one of the most important inputs in the production process. This paper estimates the economic value of water in the Korean manufacturing industry by employing the concept of the value of marginal product (VMP). We use data on 53,912 factories surveyed in 2003 and consider two types of production functions: the Cobb-Douglas and trans-log functions. The specification test revealed that the trans-log function was more appropriate for estimating the data. The industry-wide output elasticity and VMP of industrial water were estimated to be 0.0104 and KRW 1,156 (USD 1.05) per m³, respectively. The estimated VMP ranged from KRW 428 (USD 0.39) per m³ for the precision instrument sector to KRW 13,760 (USD 12.51) per m³ for the transportation equipment sector, indicating that the VMP varies across sectors. The results have important implications for various areas of industrial water management. Any cost-benefit analysis of new projects providing industrial water requires information on the economic value of industrial water. Moreover, such information is required for determining the ways in which scarce water resources could be distributed to various sectors.     

Analysis of the Water Resources Status in Kuwait

The acute lack of natural water resources in Kuwait is indisputable. The country essentially has one limited natural water resource that is groundwater, while the majority of the country's demands are met by seawater desalination. Notwithstanding this scarcity calls for careful foresighted utilization of the water resources, no clear plans is being followed. Attempting to initiate the planning process, this paper gives an assessment of the current status of water resources availability, production, future demand and expected increases in production, in Kuwait. While the desalination and wastewater reuse are only bounded by economical considerations, considerable efforts have already been made in assessing the baseline of the groundwater resources in Kuwait; nonetheless, no estimation is available of the aquifer system potential for sustainable development or even mining. The total water budget in 2001 is estimated at 655 Million m³, with desalination, groundwater production, and wastewater reuse constituting 59%, 32% and 9% respectively. The projected water demand for 2010 is 1020 Million m³. The plans of the Ministry of Electricity and Water and the Ministry of Public Works indicated that groundwater would cover 52% of the planned additional production, while desalination and wastewater reuse would cover 44% and 4% respectively. While the proposed increase in groundwater production would inevitably consume the only natural water resource of the country, only 40% of the generated wastewater is to be utilized. The absence of integrated planning is also manifested in the total planned production that surpasses the projected demands by more than 17%.     

Water footprints of nations: Water use by people as a function of their consumption pattern

The water footprint shows the extent of water use in relation to consumption of people. The water footprint of a country is defined as the volume of water needed for the production of the goods and services consumed by the inhabitants of the country. The internal water footprint is the volume of water used from domestic water resources; the external water footprint is the volume of water used in other countries to produce goods and services imported and consumed by the inhabitants of the country. The study calculates the water footprint for each nation of the world for the period 1997–2001. The USA appears to have an average water footprint of 2480,m³/cap/yr, while China has an average footprint of 700,m³/cap/yr. The global average water footprint is 1240,m³/cap/yr. The four major direct factors determining the water footprint of a country are: volume of consumption (related to the gross national income); consumption pattern (e.g. high versus low meat consumption); climate (growth conditions); and agricultural practice (water use efficiency).     

黄河三角洲水土资源空间匹配格局探析

水土资源二者在空间上的匹配程度直接影响着区域农业的可持续发展、资源的可持续利用。本文以黄河三角洲中心城市东营市及所辖区县为研究区域,分析了该区域水土资源空间分布的差异、构建了水土资源匹配测算模型、测算了水土资源匹配系数、划分了水土资源空间匹配程度。结果表明:该区域水土资源总体呈现出"土地资源丰富,水资源缺乏"的态势;东营市水土资源匹配系数为0.19万m3/hm2,低于山东省平均水平0.30万m3/hm2,更远远低于全国平均水平1.72万m3/hm2,东营市各区县水土资源匹配系数利津县最低0.07万m3/hm2,广饶县最高0.42万m3/hm2,相差达到0.35万m3/hm2。研究区水土资源空间匹配程度总体呈现出"南高、北次之、中间低"的格局;地表水资源短缺、地下淡水资源非常有限,是导致黄河三角洲水土资源空间匹配程度差的主要限制因子。     

Groundwater Resources and International Law in the Middle East Peace Process

Abstract

Next to issues of land, water resources are the major bone of contention in the peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs. The objective of negotiations is de facto setting the clock back to the eve of the Israel War of Independence, when the Jews accepted the 1947 UN resolution of partition, while the Arabs rejected it. The Arabs now accept the principle of territorial partition, but at the same time, they demand re-apportioning of resources, mainly of water. The Palestinians contend that the facts created on the ground unilaterally by Israel during the last 50 years, namely the agricultural development and the high water consumption by the Israeli urban sector, leave them without resources necessary for their development as a modern society. Per capita annual renewable freshwater resources in the region is among the lowest in the world. Approximately 600 million m³, or about one-third of the regional fresh groundwater consumption, is annually abstracted from aquifer systems recharged at the uplands of the Upper Cretaceous partly karstified carbonate formations of Judea and Samaria, terrenes often referred to as the West Bank. Israel and the Israeli agricultural settlements established within Judea and Samaria use 495 million m³/year (or 82.5 percent) of the abstracted water, leaving to the Palestinians the remaining 105 million m³/year. Thus, while the recharge zone to the Judean and Samarian aquifer systems are within the territories with an overwhelmingly Palestinian majority, most of the discharge occurs through water wells within the Israeli administration. The situation is reversed in the Gaza Strip, where Israel allows underflow of only 7 million m³/year of groundwater across the border, a less than 10 percent contribution to the nearly 80 million m³/year overdrawn water budget of the area. The issue of water is complicated by glaringly wide disparity in per capita water consumption between the two nations. While lines on the ground may separate two nations with conflicting territorial ambitions, apportioning of groundwater between Israel and the future Palestinian State proves to be one of the most intractable issues in the Middle East Peace Process. Moreover, neither international nor domestic law provides an adequate answer to questions of ownership or rights.     

土库曼斯坦农牧业水足迹研究

农牧业水足迹研究可揭示农牧业经济系统与水资源消耗间的联系与矛盾,为农业水资源合理利用和农业结构调整提供参考。运用水足迹理论和方法计算了土库曼斯坦农牧业水足迹,分析该农牧业水足迹总量、结构、人口密度、土地密度、农牧业水资源集约利用度、水资源负载指数特征及其年际动态和水资源生态安全指标。研究表明:土库曼斯坦农牧业水足迹总量介于1.63×1010².73×1010m3之间,年际变化总体呈上升趋势,2008年增幅最大;农产品水足迹组成中经济作物占总量的67.93%;农产品水足迹人口、土地密度的年际动态特征与总量相似,2008年出现峰值,畜产品水足迹较稳定;2007-2011年间该国农牧业水资源利用有效性提高,经济效益增加,但总体低于畜产品水资源的利用效率和经济效益;2007-2012年农业水资源负载指数显示农业水资源利用度和开发潜力持续升高,但仍有较大开发潜力;随着土国农牧业水足迹的上升,该国面临的水资源压力骤增,水资源生态安全问题突出。     

Facing Water Scarcity in Jordan

Abstract

Jordan is extremely water-scarce with just 167 m³ per capita per year to meet domestic, industrial, agricultural, tourism, and environmental demands. The heavy exploitation of water resources has contributed to declines in the levels of aquifers and the Dead Sea. Rapid growth in demand, particularly for higher quality water for domestic, industrial, and tourism uses, is significantly increasing pressure on agricultural and environmental uses of water, both of which must continue to adapt to reduced volumes and lower quality water. The agricultural sector has begun to respond by improving irrigation efficiency and increasing the use of recycled water. Total demand for water still exceeds renewable supplies while inadequate treatment of sewage used for irrigation creates potential environmental and health risks and presents agricultural marketing challenges that undermine the competitiveness of exports. The adaptive capability of the natural environment may already be past sustainable limits with oasis wetlands having been most seriously affected. Development of new water resources is extremely expensive in Jordan with an average investment cost of US$4 to $5 per cubic meter. This paper examines four integrated water resources management (IWRM) approaches of relevance to Jordan: water reuse, demand management, energy-water linkages, and transboundary water management. While progress in Jordan has been made, the Ministry of Water and Irrigation continues to be concerned about the acute water scarcity the country faces as well as the need to continue working with concerned stakeholders to assure future water supplies.     

Role of Virtual Water in Optimizing Water Resources Management in Jordan

Role of virtual water (VW) in optimizing water resources management in Jordan, a far water-short country, was explored by calculating VW content of imported commodities and their costs. Feasibility of farming and water required to produce all crops growing in Jordan were evaluated using net return per unit volume of water and VW embedded in unit mass of production. The results of these analyses showed that there were regional differences in crop profitability and thus net return from unit volume of irrigation water. This was attributed to variations in agro-climatic zones punctuated by production and irrigation technologies and access to water resources. In this regard, opportunity cost of water should be considered when allocating water to different consumption sectors. Agricultural systems generating net profits less than an arbitrary limit of $1.0?m^?3 of irrigation water and producing yield at water use efficiency of 50?C60?m³?ton^?1 or more were viewed not feasible. The key challenge facing decision makers would be to ensure that the opportunity cost of water was incorporated into the analysis process when determining future cropping pattern. Such a cost of water should be combined with crop-embedded VW analysis and expected net return from unit volume of irrigation water. Therefore, water allocation mechanism (e.g. water market) need to be developed for more efficient water use than the commonly practiced farm quota. Optimization of the usage of the limited water resources can be envisaged by continuous imports of VW, especially that embedded in cereal, oil, meat, live animals and sugar. Appropriate amendment of water legislations and concerned institutions are encouraged to provide better guidelines to policy makers, water managers, extension and advisory services, water use associations and farmers. Optimization of water resources management could be based on contract farming to ensure that water allocation and cropping pattern respond to water scarcity. Furthermore, Jordan should concentrate on production and export of crops having low VW contents and high return per m³.     

Towards better water security in North China

Water shortages and related environmental degradation in North China are major issues facing the country. As runoff from the mountainous parts of the region steadily decrease and water resources become overcommitted, serious water and environmental problems have resulted. These include drying-up of rivers, decline in groundwater levels, degradation of lakes and wetlands, and water pollution. Thus, 4000,km of the lower reaches of the Hai River – some 40% of its length – has experienced zero flows and, as result, parts of this river have become an ephemeral stream. The area of wetland within the Basin has decreased from 10,000,km² at the beginning of 1950s to 1,000km² at present. Over-extraction of groundwater occurs beneath 70% of the North China Plain, with the total groundwater over-extraction estimated at 90,billion m³. Thus, problems of water shortage and related environmental issues in North China have become the most significant limiting factors affecting sustainable development in this important region of China. This paper addresses the water security issues facing North China in the 21st Century using the Hai River basin as an example. We describe hydrologic cycles under changing environments, water-saving agriculture, assessment of water resource security, and efforts towards achieving integrated catchment management.     

Integrated Water Resources Management in the Republic of Uzbekistan

Abstract

The Uzbek socio-economic structure is characterized by the transition from a centrally-planned to a market-orientated economy, with a shifting from agricultural production to industrial development. However, the agricultural sector continues to play a significant role in a general economy of the country. The major water sector strategy is to decrease the dependence of agricultural production on climate by introducing advanced irrigation techniques and water saving methods to achieve future sustainable socio-economic development and environmental protection. Water management policy should be flexible enough to adapt to new demands. The regulation of consumption through demand management tools, such as appropriate pricing policies, has recently received greater attention in Uzbekistan. The main thesis of this paper is that allocation of water resources cannot be separated from ecological and economic considerations. The establishment of development objectives and the identification of constraints are also discussed. In the coming years, special attention will need to be paid to the control of water pollution and land salinization, water resources conservation, and acknowledging that actions to increase water productivity are as important as finding additional sources of water.     

区域农业生产系统用水正负效益分析及能值评估

从生态经济学的角度,运用能值分析方法,在分析区域农业生产系统各种生态流投入产出的基础上,探讨了农业生产用水的正负效益,进而以"能值"作为统一的度量尺度,完善了农业生产用水正负效益的计算方法。以郑州市为例,计算了该市2011年农业生产系统用水的正负效益,其中正效益为1.62×10~(21)J,负效益为6.82×10~(20)J,负效益约为正效益的42.10%,表明郑州市农业生产用水存在负面问题较为严重。认为提高水资源及伴随的可更新资源的利用效率,尽量减少不可更新资源的不合理投入和利用,避免因环境污染和地下水超采引发的危害,是减小农业生产用水负效益的关键。     

Water Footprint of Grain Product in Irrigated Farmland of China

China faces the dual challenge of grain production pressure and water scarcity. It is significant to reduce water footprint of grain product (WFGP, m³/t) in irrigated farmland. The focus of grain production and agricultural water use, and the precondition is to determine the WFGP and its composition. This paper estimates the WFGP in irrigated farmland of 31 provinces (including municipalities, autonomous regions) a by collecting actual data of 443 typical irrigation districts in 1998, 2005 and 2010, and analyses its temporal and spatial variation in irrigated farmland of China. The result shows that the WFGP in each province decreases with time except in Jiangxi and Hunan, and the average value of all provinces reduced from 1494 m³/t in 1998 to 1243 m³/t in 2010. The WFGP decreases faster in more developed municipal cities and major grain production provinces. The annual average WFGP in irrigated farmland is 1339 m³/t and the blue and green water account for 63.5 % and 36.5 % of the total, respectively. The WFGP and its composition are significantly different between provinces. Generally, provinces distributed inside and beyond Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, have a higher water productivity, lower WFGP and blue water footprint of grain product, while most provinces located in northwest, northeast, southeast and south China have a higher WFGP and lower proportion of green water in the WFGP as a whole. Portion of the blue water footprint (BWFGP) is not consumed for crop evapotranspiration (BWFGP _ET ) but conveyance loss (BWFGP _cl ). The national averaged BWFGP _cl decreases with time and but still remains up to 466 m³/t in 2010, making up 34.8 % of the WFGP. In order to safeguard grain security and ease the water resource pressure, the Chinese government should increase investment and apply advanced technology for developing water-saving agriculture, improve the efficiency of water use and further reduce the WFGP. Considering also the contribution of grain output and the relatively high WFGP, the government should give priority to developing water-saving agriculture in the Northeast of China.     

辽宁省春玉米生产水足迹的时空变化研究

为降低农业生产活动中农作物对水资源的高消耗,提高用水效率,借助辽宁省1987—2018年19个气象站点逐日气象数据及春玉米产量数据,全面计算绿水足迹、蓝水足迹及灰水足迹的真实消耗。结果表明：（1）辽宁省春玉米生产水足迹自2002年起变化幅度不明显,多年平均值是1424.21 m³/t,其中绿水足迹占54%,灰水足迹占27%,蓝水足迹占19%。（2）从绿水足迹看,辽宁省春玉米绿水足迹每年以6.28 m³/t速率减少,空间分布上2002年绿水足迹高值区主要集中在东部地区;2010年辽宁省整体绿水足迹较高。（3）从蓝水足迹看,每年以1.06 m³/t的速率增长;2002年辽宁春玉米蓝水足迹高值区主要分布在环渤海、宽甸及其周围地区;2010年,辽宁省大部分地区蓝水足迹较低。（4）灰水足迹整体以每年14.03 m³/t的速率降低,主要与农作物产量及氮肥施用量相关。     

流域水资源供需双侧调控模型及应用

针对水资源常规配置中供需分离、配置与调度结合不紧密,难以支撑流域水资源严格管理的问题,提出流域水资源供需双侧调控模型。在需水侧,通过建立供水量和效益函数关系,并考虑水土资源等约束条件,构建农业种植结构与灌溉制度优化模型;在供水侧,采用模拟与优化、配置与调度相结合的两阶段建模路径,构建多水源配置与水库群优化调度模型;通过来源于需水侧模型的"需水过程"与来源于供水侧模型的"可供水过程"的分解与耦合,实现供需双侧的联合调控,综合集成构建流域水资源供需双侧调控模型。将该模型应用于南四湖流域,提出了南四湖上级湖、下级湖等大型湖库工程的优化调度图与不同年型下农业种植结构和水资源配置方案,验证了模型的有效性。通过供需双侧协调优化,南四湖流域供需缺口缩小,农业种植效益增加,枯水年水分生产效益提高了0.70元/m~3、平水年水分生产效益提高了0.63元/m~3;生活和工业供水保证率稳定在95%,生态和农业供水保证率明显提升,分别由53%提高到71%、由67%提高到75%。     

基于用水总量控制的雄安新区用水强度指标体系

为实现用水总量的控制目标,从控制用水强度、提高水资源利用效率两方面出发,利用比拟借鉴方法构建了雄安新区不同时期分行业、分区域的用水强度指标体系。针对用水强度指标的不确定性,利用随机模拟方法预测了雄安新区不同时期需水总量,并进行统计分析。结果表明:雄安新区建设期、建成期、腾飞期最小需水量在7.5亿m³以内,平均需水量为8亿m³左右,最大需水量达到9亿m³;建议在建立先进用水强度指标体系的基础上,严格用水强度指标的执行监管,确保用水强度指标落地见效,全面推广生活、工业、农业先进节水技术,加强非常规水资源利用,促进水资源高效循环利用。     

对节水灌溉与粮食安全的认识

近几年来，保障粮食安全已经成为世界各国特别是发展中国家日益关注的重大政治、经济和社会问题。在我国由于人口增加，耕地面积减少，水资源的严重不足，对我国未来的粮食安全产生直接影响。水利的发展证明了灌溉对农业生产的发展发挥了主导作用。采用节水灌溉技术可以提高灌溉水的利用效率和使用效率，进而提高未来粮食生产能力。保证粮食安全，促进农业可持续发展。