A cross-sectional analysis of energy—output correlation

The nature of the correlation between energy consumption and output is examined based on cross-sectional data for 100 countries. The bias in the correlation due to the use of nominal income and to the convention adopted in measuring non-commercial energy consumption is analysed. It is found that when real income is used and non-commercial energy consumption measured in commercial energy replacement value, the cross-sectional energy elasticity increases rapidly from about unity for the low income developing countries to between 1.6 and 1.8 for the high income developing countries, and declines marginally thereafter in the industrial country income range. The results show certain disparity on energy-output ratio across countries with higher income countries consuming disproportionately more energy per unit of real output.     

North and south: Regional footprints on the transition pathway towards a low carbon,global economy

Environmental or ‘ecological’ footprints are indicators of resource consumption and waste absorption transformed on the basis of biologically productive land area required per capita with prevailing technology. They represent a partial measure of the extent to which the planet, its regions, or nations are moving along a sustainable development pathway. Such footprints vary between countries at different stages of economic development and varying geographic characteristics. A correlation equation for national environmental footprints is used, alongside international projections of population growth and gross regional income, to estimate the relative contributions of the peoples of the industrialised North and populous South that would be needed in order to secure climate-stabilising carbon reductions out to about 2100. The four so-called ‘marker scenarios’ produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are used to estimate the degree of energy efficiency improvement and carbon mitigation that is feasible. The present footprint projections suggest that a reduction in the consumption of biophysical assets across both the developing and industrialised world is indeed possible. However, the developing world’s footprint is shown to overshoot that of the industrialised countries by around 2010–2015. It then levels out and starts to fall, on the most optimistic scenario, by about 2050. In order to achieve global sustainability in the 21st Century a serious commitment to environmental protection is required in both the industrialised North and the ‘majority South’. That implies balancing population growth, economic well-being, and environmental impacts in the interests of all the people and wildlife on ‘Spaceship Earth’.     

Energy conservation

Current energy sources and consumption patterns are reviewed, with emphasis on the UK. A survey is made of the main technological means of energy conservation: more efficient conversion of fuels to mechanical and electrical power; utilisation of waste heat; reducing energy requirements for materials and manufacturing; reducing distribution/storage losses, and heat losses from structures. Potential savings resulting from exploitation of novel energy resources are also considered.Sociotechnical aspects of energy conservation are discussed, with particular reference to transport and per capita consumption of materials/manufactured goods. It is concluded that very substantial savings could be made in these areas. Despite the additional environmental benefits associated with many such savings, their political feasibility is judged to be low. Suggestions are made for realistic legislation that could be introduced to effect savings by individual users with minimum capital expenditure.     

Renewable energy options: What could developing countries expect from them?

In order to make a realistic assessment of the energy alternatives for the developing world, the present conditions of the developing region, consisting of Africa and Asia (excluding South Africa, Japan and China), are studied first. Highlights include: low commercial energy consumption (0.2 kW/cap), heavy dependence on oil and noncommercial energy, and especially poor conditions of the rural energy supply.Since fossil fuels need to be conserved and nuclear energy is not an option for many of the developing countries, what renewable options could bring is evaluated in detail. Socio-techno-economic parameters for developing and employing renewable energy sources are identified for biogas, wood plantation, solar, and hydropower. The study concludes that the developing countries could obtain 35% of the energy in 2030 with the low-demand scenario of 0.9 kW/cap. However, with the high-demand scenario of 1.4 kW/cap, active policies in nuclear energy and fossil fuels as well would be required.     

India's energy consumption: Composition and trends

Early studies of Indian energy consumption have largely been confined to commercial fuels, yet it is claimed that the higher proportion of energy consumed is non-commercial. Recent studies have looked more closely at non-commercial energy, and at the contribution of human and animal energy. This article examines and aggregates all forms of energy consumed — non-commercial and animate, as well as commercial fuels. The problems encountered with levels of aggregation are discussed, and the limitations of the conventions used are pointed out. A striking feature of the aggregated energy consumption statistics is the strong effect of the level of aggregation on the relative contribution of different energy forms.     

Economic growth,energy conservation and emissions reduction: A comparative analysis based on panel data for 8 Asian-Pacific countries

This study was conducted to evaluate the causality between energy consumption, GDP growth and carbon emissions for eight Asia-Pacific countries from 1971 to 2005 using the panel data. The results indicate that there are long-run equilibrium relationships between these variables. Additionally, causality from energy consumption to CO₂ emissions was observed generally, but there were some opposite relationships also. Parameter estimations of the panel data model indicate that there are great differences in the carbon emissions, the efficiencies of energy use, carbon emissions of unit GDP and unit energy consumption between developed and developing countries. The base carbon emissions, per capita energy consumption and efficiency of energy use in developing countries are far lower than in developed countries; however, the CO₂ emissions per unit of energy use is higher. Although developing countries may reduce their CO₂ emission per unit energy use, total energy consumption will rise rapidly with economic development. Thus, developing countries must determine how to undergo economic growth while conserving energy and reducing emissions. To respond to global climate change, it is necessary to develop innovative technology for energy use, transform the energy structure and conduct the clean development mechanism.     

中国农村生活用能及其碳排放分析(2001-2010)

分析了2001~2008年中国农村生活用能的变化以及2001~2010年中国农村生活用能对气候变化的影响。研究发现,农村生活用能呈现了从非商品能源向商品能源转变的趋势,其中,传统生物质能源的消费比例从81.5%下降至70.9%,而商品能源则从17.1%上升至25.1%。此外,除传统生物质能源外的其它可再生能源的消费增长迅速,年均增长率为19.8%。与此相应,农村生活用能消费所导致的碳排放呈现出显著的增加趋势,由152.2百万t上升至366.89百万t,且农村人均CO2排放的增长速度是同期城镇人口的1.87倍。分析认为,影响商品能源消费的主要因素是农村居民收入的增加,强有力的政策支持则促进了农村除传统生物质能源外其他可再生能源的发展。     

Equity implications of two burden-sharing rules for stabilizing greenhouse-gas concentrations

This paper focuses on the equity aspects of international burden sharing for global CO₂ emission stabilization. It first summarizes and classifies equity principles proposed in the published literature of the field. Of these, the authors selected three major equity principles, i.e., egalitarian equity, horizontal equity, and proportional equality (often referred to also as sovereign equity) to carry out a detailed examination of two sets of quantitative emission entitlements, which are based on two burden-sharing rules, i.e., the equal emissions per capita approach and the carbon intensity approach. The two burden-sharing rules were chosen as not only particularly popular, but also because their application results in distinctly different burden sharing among countries.     

The world per capita electricity consumption distribution: Signs of convergence?

Considering residential per capita electricity consumption as one of the most suitable economic welfare indicators, the aim of this paper is to explore worldwide differences on this variable over the period 1980–2007. The paper adds to the standard practice of σ and β convergence analysis by tracking the external shape and time evolution of the entire distribution, applying nonparametric techniques (density functions and stochastic kernels) to a sample of 98 countries. The main finding is that a weak process of electricity consumption convergence has taken place. This reduction of disparities is clearly related to at least three issues: firstly, the rapid economic changes experienced by some developing countries; secondly, the energy conservation policies implemented by most developed countries following the first oil shock; and, thirdly, the growing awareness on energy issues in rich countries. Notwithstanding this, the ergodic distribution on per capita electricity consumption indicates that large cross-country disparities will persist in the long-run.     

A cross-country analysis of aggregate energy and carbon intensities

An update on the study by Ang [Energy Economics 9 (1987) 274–286] shows substantial changes in the relationship between energy consumption and national output across world countries from 1975 to 1997. While the ratio of commercial energy consumption to national output increases across countries as per capita income increases in 1975, the converse is observed in 1997. The cross-country energy elasticity has also dropped from values well above unity to below or close to unity. Using the 1997 data, the relationship between CO₂ emissions and national output across countries is studied and the results show some interesting differences from that between energy consumption and national output.     

Cooking in West Sumatra: Interfuel substitution and the choice of cooking method

The results of a survey on energy consumption in cooking in five villages in West Sumatra, Indonesia, are used to investigate the substitution of commercial fuels for non-commercial ones in a rural community. Land-use patterns, the availability of non-commercial fuelwood and the state of socio-economic development of the villages (affecting the average income, availability of commercial fuels and the expectations of the villagers) all influenced the types and quantities of fuel use. Within each village cooking energy consumption and the type of cooking method chosen varied considerably with income and household size, and with the individual preferences of each villager.     

Estimation of real GDP and unrecorded economy in Turkey based on environmental data

This paper estimates the real gross domestic product (GDP) and unrecorded economy for Turkey using the Kalman filter technique. Using different tests, most of the research articles on energy policy investigate the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP for different countries. On the other hand, other studies on climate change try to show the effects of both energy consumption and GDP on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission. Since the unreported economy has an important weight in developing countries where the recorded (or official) GDP suffers from considerable measurement problems, investigation of the relationship between the recorded GDP and energy consumption may lead to biased results. In this paper, the economic variables (GDP, country population) as well as environmental variables (CO₂ emission, forest area) are used in order to estimate GDP, which is an unobserved variable in our model. The results clearly indicate that: first, the true GDP in Turkey, that our model estimates, is higher than the observed (recorded) GDP in the whole period of observation (1973–2003) and the size of unrecorded economy varies between 12 and 30 percent of the observed GDP; second, the gap between the true GDP and the observed GDP has an increasing trend; third, if the change in GDP per primary energy supply is smaller than the change in CO₂ per primary energy supply, then there may exist unrecorded economy.     

Dynamics of final sectoral energy demand and aggregate energy intensity

This paper proposes a regional and sectoral model of global final energy demand. For the main end-use sectors of consumption (industrial, commercial and public services, residential and road transportation), per-capita demand is expressed as an S-shaped function of per-capita income. Other variables intervene as well, like energy prices, temperatures and technological trends. This model is applied on a panel of 101 countries and 3 aggregates (covering the whole world) and it explains fairly well past variations in sectoral, final consumption since the beginning of the 2000s. Further, the model is used to analyze the dynamics of final energy demand, by sector and in total. The main conclusion concerns the pattern of change for aggregate energy intensity. The simulations performed show that there is no a priori reason for it to exhibit a bell-shape, as reported in the literature. Depending on initial conditions, the weight of basic needs in total consumption and the availability of modern commercial energy resources, various forms might emerge.     

Determinants of carbon dioxide emissions: Empirical evidence from 69 countries

This study investigates the determinants of carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂) for a global panel consisting of 69 countries using a dynamic panel data model. To make the panel data analysis more homogenous, we also investigate the determinants of CO₂ emissions for a number of sub-panels. These sub-panels are constructed based on the income level of countries. In this way, we end up with three income panels; namely, high income, middle income, and low income panels. The time component of our dataset is 1985–2005 inclusive. Our main findings are that trade openness, per capita GDP, and energy consumption, proxied by per capita electric power consumption and per capita total primary energy consumption, have positive effects on CO₂ emissions. Urbanisation is found to have a negative impact on CO₂ emissions in high income, middle income, and low income panels. For the global panel, only GDP per capita and per capita total primary energy consumption are found to be statistically significant determinants of CO₂ emission, while urbanisation, trade openness, and per capita electric power consumption have negative effects on the CO₂ emissions.     

Third World energy policies The urban-rural divide

This article investigates the differences in energy consumption generally found in the urban and rural sectors of Third World nations. Energy policies in these nations are generally found to reflect the dualism of developing economies with a widespread neglect of rural energy problems. A quantitative model is developed using simple functions to represent a household's allocation of time, explicitly including market as well as non-market activities and commercial and non-commercial energy. On this basis, it is inferred that situations of extreme fuel scarcity in rural areas can best be managed by governments organizing emergency supplies of fuel in compensation for productive work. Specific reference is made to the food and fuel problems of Sahelian Africa in this context. Directions for further empirical research using the model developed are suggested, with the example of work already done in India.     

Long memory in US disaggregated petroleum consumption: Evidence from univariate and multivariate LM tests for fractional integration

Previous studies that have tested for a unit root in aggregate energy consumption have potentially reached misleading conclusions because they fail to allow for the possibility that energy consumption might be fractionally integrated and do not distinguish between different types of energy consumption. This study tests for long memory in disaggregated petroleum consumption in the United States using univariate and multivariate Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests for fractional integration. The results point strongly to the need to distinguish between different forms of energy consumption and allow for a generalization of the I(0)/I(1) dichotomy when considering the order of integration of energy consumption. Allowing for short-run dynamics, the univariate test suggests that less than 50% of the series are fractionally integrated. Consistent with expectations the non-stationary series are found to have the highest mean and standard deviation. The multivariate test suggests that petroleum consumption in the commercial and industrial sectors is clearly fractionally integrated when allowing for short-run dynamics, and, as such, exhibits persistent effects, while petroleum consumption in the residential sector is a stationary process.     

A review of installed solar photovoltaic and thermal collector capacities in relation to solar potential for the EU-15

This article analyses the energy statistics of 15 European Union countries (EU-15), giving special emphasis to the installed solar photovoltaic and thermal collector capacity. The installed capacities per capita are analysed in relation to the solar radiation income of respective countries with the view to explore the relationship between the solar income and its utilisation as of the year 2006. In terms of the installed solar thermal collector capacity, Austria leads the statistics amongst the countries studied with 223W_th collector capacity per capita, followed by Greece with 207W_th. Except for Greece, it is observed that the countries with high solar radiation income are lacking to realise their solar potential. Regarding the installed photovoltaic power per capita, Luxembourg leads the pack by a wide margin with 47W_p capacity, followed by Germany with 30W_p. Fiscal instruments to invigorate the deployment of solar energy have also been identified in this work.     

Purchasing-Power-Parity (PPP) approach to energy-efficiency measurement: Implications for energy and environmental policy

The weaknesses of the traditional measure of national output are well known and, in recent years, efforts to find more appropriate alternatives have intensified. One such methodology is the PPP approach which may capture the real value of the GDP. In general, this approach raises the incomes of developing countries by a substantial amount, and this has serious implications for energy indicators on which policies are usually based. A further problem is that non-commercial energy is usually left out of energy-intensity calculations. We analyze the issue of energy-efficiency and carry out calculations based on three approaches: the traditional approach, the PPP-based income approach and an approach which includes non-commercial energy. The results confirm the limitations of using the PPP approach, as it results in a spuriously high energy-efficiency level suggesting high technological sophistication for developing countries. The inclusion of non-commercial energy gives a more complete picture. The main conclusion is that applying the PPP method in energy-intensity calculations may be misleading.     

Energy consumption and economic growth relationship: Evidence from panel data for low and middle income countries

This paper uses the panel data of energy consumption (EC) and economic growth (GDP) for 51 countries from 1971 to 2005. These countries are divided into three groups: low income group, lower middle income group and upper middle income group countries. Firstly, a relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is investigated by employing Pedroni (1999) panel cointegration method. Secondly, panel causality test is applied to investigate the way of causality between the energy consumption and economic growth. Finally, we test whether there is a strong or weak relationship between these variables by using Pedroni (2001) method. The empirical results of this study are as follows: i) Energy consumption and GDP are cointegrated for all three income group countries. ii) The panel causality test results reveal that there is long-run Granger causality running from GDP to EC for low income countries and there is bidirectional causality between EC and GDP for middle income countries. iii) The estimated cointegration factor, β, is not close to 1. In other words, no strong relation is found between energy consumption and economic growth for all income groups considered in this study. The findings of this study have important policy implications and it shows that this issue still deserves further attention in future research.     

Energy for the developing world: The [new wisdoms] are wrong

A rapidly building concensus, in the rich developed nations, is that less develped countries (LDC) should support large, costly, programmes of rapidly developing non-oil renewable energy sources, and energy conservation. However, oil use in the LDCs is tiny in relation to that of rich nations, even if growing faster. On a per capita base the difference is greater still. Thus conservation, as a solution to short run oil supply problems (e.g. OPEC output ceilings) is a responsibility of the nation grouping that uses and wastes most oil. Small percentage cuts by the OECD-IEA group could provide ample supplies for the growing needs of LDCs without driving prices inevitably higher. For LDCs there are now many devices for controlling or reducing their foreign exhange spending on oil per unit import. Accelerated oil search and devlopment provides the best midterm opportunities for solving oil supply problems in LDCs especially if OPEC and rich nation loan funding and technical support are accelerated. the impetus for the necessarily costly rapid development of unconventional energy sources must and should come from the rich nation in the short and midterm, for aid-assisted transfer to LDSs in the longer term. This will allow the scarce capital of LDCs to be utilized for non-energy sectors where needs are immediate and cirticial, and for oil search and development.