基于概率性地震需求模型的桥梁易损性分析

采用概率性地震需求分析方法,建立了汶川地区典型简支梁桥的分析型地震易损性模型。基于汶川地震桥梁震后调查资料,评估了桥梁结构参数的不确定性,抽样并生成一系列桥梁的有限元模型样本。利用汶川地震实测地震波对所建立的桥梁有限元模型进行非线性动力时程分析,并记录每一组分析中桥梁构件的地震峰值响应,通过回归分析建立地震动强度和桥梁构件地震需求之间的关系。在确定桥梁不同损伤状态对应的构件极限状态后,基于对数正态分布假设生成不同损伤状态对应的地震易损性曲线,最后基于可靠度理论计算得到桥梁系统易损性的上下确界。生成的地震易损性曲线可以进一步用于地震风险评估和震后加固优先级决策。     

基于健康监测系统的大跨多荷载桥梁的 疲劳可靠度评估

考虑到火车、汽车与风荷载的长期作用以及多荷载的随机性,评估大跨多荷载桥梁的疲劳可靠度是一项富有挑战的任务。该研究基于健康监测系统提出了大跨多荷载悬索桥的疲劳可靠度分析框架,并应用到香港青马大桥。首先,定义了疲劳可靠度的极限状态函数,基于监测数据建立火车、汽车与风荷载的概率模型。基于概率模型和蒙特卡洛模拟方法,利用疲劳关键位置上多荷载的每日随机应力响应,估计每日应力幅m次方之和的概率分布。假设交通保持不变,可确定在给定时段内应力幅m次方之和的概率分布。最终得到桥梁不同疲劳关键位置不同时间点的疲劳失效概率。结果表明,在目前的交通状态下,青马大桥的疲劳健康状况可保持良好。     

预应力混凝土梁桥系统失效树分析

针对预应力混凝土梁桥,采用失效树的方法进行系统可靠性分析。运用全局临界强度分枝-约界准则识别结构系统主要失效模式,以JC法计算各主要失效模式的可靠指标,采用Ditlevsen上下界公式分析结构体系的失效概率。以某汉江公路大桥为例,分析了失效树图形,研究了主要失效模式的可靠指标、失效概率及桥梁结构体系可靠性。与实桥运营状态的对比分析表明,上述理论分析较好地预测了实际的结构行为,能用于桥梁结构安全性及可靠性分析评估。     

A discrete stress-strength interference model for unreliability bounds

This study presents a multiple-line-segment method of implementing the stress-strength interference model when only discrete interval probabilities of stress and strength inside an interference region are available. Based on the discrete interval probabilities, the probability density functions are represented by line segments, which are in turn expressed by piecewise linear polynomials. Thus, unlike in existing empirical methods, when both stress and strength fall into the same subinterval, one can calculate the probability of failure by directly integrating the joint probability of stress and strength over the subinterval. Quadratic programming optimization is implemented to determine the upper and lower bounds on the failure probability, and the average value of the bounds is treated as the point estimate of the failure probability. Finally, numerical examples are carried out to demonstrate the proposed method. Three quantities are used to evaluate the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed method—the relative error of the point estimate of the unreliability, the width of the bounds on the unreliability, and the minimum number of subintervals needed to generate the bounds that contain the exact unreliability. These three quantities are compared with results in the literature.     

相依失效生命线工程系统抗震可靠度估计的统一RDA算法

在网络连通可靠度分析的递推分解算法(Recursive Decomposition Algorithm,简称RDA)的基础上,先整合原RDA算法中分别用于不同网络赋权形式的三部分程序,发展出统一RDA算法。应用顺序复合法(Sequential Compounding Method,简称SCM)和Gumbel Copula函数分别计算RDA算法中不交最小路和不交最小割事件的联合失效概率,解决元件相依失效生命线工程系统的抗震可靠度估计问题,最终发展出相依失效生命线工程系统抗震可靠度估计的统一RDA算法。36节点格栅型网络可靠度案例计算结果表明:此方法可以用于相依失效网络系统的动力抗震可靠度估计,计算精度较高。     

现有混凝土桥梁的时变可靠度分析

在研究现有混凝土桥梁抗力和荷载的时变性的基础上,建立了现有桥梁的时变可靠度计算模型,并采用自适应重要抽样法计算时变可靠指标。同时,对变量进行了参数敏感性分析。研究结果对于科学、经济地制定桥梁维修计划和方案具有重要意义。     

高烈度软土场地桥梁地震与冲刷联合作用效应研究

冲刷会导致桥梁基础裸露,土体对桩基的约束作用减弱,使得桥梁基础在地震作用下的危险性增大,因此建立冲刷与地震联合作用下桥梁的失效概率模型,分析震区连续刚构桥冲刷作用组合分项系数具有重要的意义。以地震基本烈度Ⅷ度区某连续刚构桥为依托工程,基于Monte-Carlo法确定冲刷深度的分布函数,并采用CSIBridge有限元软件建立不同冲刷深度下全桥空间有限元动力模型,进行48条地震波下的增量动力分析(IDA),计算不同冲刷深度的地震作用效应分布函数,并采用直接积分法求得桥梁基础的失效概率及可靠度指标。研究结果表明:通过冲刷与地震的联合作用框架下失效概率分析,可建立冲刷深度与失效概率的非线性关系;该方法可合理确定冲刷与地震作用组合下荷载组合分项系数,可为桥梁在冲刷与地震联合作用下的风险评估和设计提供参考。     

地震作用下梁体碰撞间隙宽度的概率分析方法

为了表征地震动随机性对梁体碰撞间隙宽度设计的影响,基于随机振动理论和矩阵系统可靠度运算方法提出一套评价桥梁系统间隙需求宽度的概率方法。首先,建立空间地震激励下的桥梁碰撞间隙需求概率模型;其次,建立了桥梁梁体碰撞的有限元模型,推导了震级与梁体间隙宽度超越概率的关系;最后,基于矩阵系统运算方法得到桥梁系统所有碰撞处（梁体与梁体、梁体与桥台）各碰撞间隙宽度和桥梁系统碰撞概率关系。研究表明:随着震级增加,间隙宽度需求成非线性增加;梁体-桥台碰撞需求基本一致,梁体-梁体的碰撞概率比梁体-桥台碰撞概率要约大20%;在震级为7时,三个碰撞点均发生碰撞的超越概率约为63%,至少两处发生碰撞的概率为95%,至少一处发生碰撞的概率为100%。     

The US NRC's accident sequence precursor program: an overview and development of a Bayesian approach to estimate core damage frequency using precursor information

This paper presents an overview of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Accident Sequence Precursor Program. The objectives of the program are delineated; the screening, review and analysis methods for events involving an accident initiator are reviewed. The quantitative calculations are illustrated using an ASP event. A Bayesian framework for using ASP information to estimate annual core damage frequencies is then introduced. This method uses both failure and success information to estimate the core damage frequency. In addition, an alternative procedure is proposed to estimate the frequency of severe core damage accidents. The estimated occurrence rate is then used to define a retrospective accident sequence precursor measure of closeness to a core damage accident. The retrospective measure is the a posteriori probability of at least one core damage accident during a given period of time. Expressions for both the conditional and unconditional severe core damage probabilities are developed. The paper also shows that the sum of conditional severe core damage probabilities overestimates the rate at which severe core damage events occur.     

An evaluation method for seismic isolation effect in siting of a nuclear facility

Seismic reliability is one of the most appropriate indices to compare several site/design alternatives of important facilities from the viewpoint of seismic safety. A method is demonstrated here to compare seismic reliabilities of two buildings, with and without seismic base isolation, unbiasedly. Particular attentions are paid for ground motion characteristics and nonlinear load deformation relationships to avoid biases.The method is applied to an example of siting/design issues, situation of which is similar to an experimental fusion facility. Reference buildings are simply modeled and their annual probabilities of failure are evaluated. It is confirmed that an unbiased comparison between base isolated and non-base isolated buildings is reasonably possible. It is also confirmed in terms of reliability that introducing seismic base isolation system is an effective means for siting/design issues.     

既有钢筋混凝土桥梁构件抗力模糊随机时变概率模型研究

构件的抗力概率模型是进行桥梁结构时变可靠性研究的基础之一。既有钢筋混凝土桥梁材料的老化与损伤情况复杂使其抗力同时具有随机性、模糊性和时变性是一个模糊随机过程。在分析影响既有钢筋混凝土桥梁构件抗力不确定性因素的基础上,考虑桥梁在服役过程中的耐久性损伤对构件抗力的影响,在常规方法只能考虑抗力随机时变性基础上,进一步考虑模糊性,结合实测数据和现有资料建立了既有钢筋混凝土桥梁中混凝土强度、钢筋截面积和钢筋强度模糊随机时变模型,进而研究了在不修复情况下桥梁构件抗力模糊时变概率模型,分析了抗力平均值和标准差随时间和阈值变化的规律,并以受弯构件为例给出了具体分析过程和结果。     

基于梯形模糊数的数控磨床砂轮架系统故障树分析

数控磨床砂轮架系统故障树分析中的一大难点是确定基本事件的发生概率,基本事件的发生情况存在模糊性且由于时间和成本的限制往往无法通过实验获得足够的可靠性数据。为了解决这一问题,引入模糊集合论,用梯形模糊数来描述故障树分析中的基本事件和顶事件的发生概率。首先对数控磨床砂轮架系统的结构层次进行分析,建立砂轮架系统的故障树。然后以砂轮架系统主轴振动异响为例进行模糊故障树分析,求解顶事件发生概率的梯形模糊数;并类比传统故障树分析中"临界重要度"的概念,定义适用于模糊故障树分析的"模糊临界重要度"。最后根据求解的模糊临界重要度对基本事件进行排序,确定危害程度较高的基本事件,结果与企业的实际情况相符合。结果表明该方法能够有效解决数控磨床故障树分析中基本事件难于准确赋值的问题,为企业提高机械系统的可靠性提供了一种定量依据。     

基于可靠度理论的桥梁涡激振动概率性评价

涡激共振是大跨度桥梁在低风速下容易发生的一种风致振动,涉及的不确定因素众多,利用可靠度理论对这类风致振动进行安全估算是大跨度桥梁风振研究的趋势。探讨了桥梁涡振的三种失效模式,包括基于涡振风速的失效模式、基于涡振振幅的失效模式和基于前两种失效模式交集的涡振刚度失效模式,基于此,以某座大跨度桥梁为例,应用二次四阶矩法计算了基于涡振振幅的失效概率,并与二次二阶矩法的计算结果进行了比较,用Monte Carlo模拟法(MC)进行了验证,发现基于二次四阶矩法的可靠度分析相对于二次二阶矩法具有较高的精度。然后,基于二次四阶矩法的计算结果得到了桥梁涡振刚度失效的概率,研究表明:单独考虑桥梁涡振发生风速或涡振振幅的失效概率偏于保守,应结合起来考虑。     

Multi-scale reliability analysis and updating of complex systems by use of linear programming

Complex systems are characterized by large numbers of components, cut sets or link sets, or by statistical dependence between the component states. These measures of complexity render the computation of system reliability a challenging task. In this paper, a decomposition approach is described, which, together with a linear programming formulation, allows determination of bounds on the reliability of complex systems with manageable computational effort. The approach also facilitates multi-scale modeling and analysis of a system, whereby varying degrees of detail can be considered in the decomposed system. The paper also describes a method for computing bounds on conditional probabilities by use of linear programming, which can be used to update the system reliability for any given event. Applications to a power network demonstrate the methodology.     

A Bayesian model averaging method for software reliability modeling and assessment

The software reliability modeling is of great significance in improving software quality and managing the software development process. However, the existing methods are not able to accurately model software reliability improvement behavior because existing single model methods rely on restrictive assumptions and combination models cannot well deal with model uncertainties. In this article, we propose a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method to model software reliability. First, the existing reliability modeling methods are selected as the candidate models, and the Bayesian theory is used to obtain the posterior probabilities of each reliability model. Then, the posterior probabilities are used as weights to average the candidate models. Both Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm and the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm are used to evaluate a candidate model's posterior probability and for comparison purpose. The results show that the BMA method has superior performance in software reliability modeling, and the MCMC algorithm performs better than EM algorithm when they are used to estimate the parameters of BMA method.     

设置自复位耗能支撑的斜拉桥横向抗震性能研究

为减小斜拉桥横桥向的地震响应,提出一种设置预压弹簧自复位耗能支撑的斜拉桥横向减震体系及支撑参数的设计方法。以一座斜拉桥为研究对象,对支撑参数进行了设计,并对塔梁固结体系和采用支撑的减震体系进行地震时程分析,从关键位置的地震响应、耗能能力等方面对支撑体系的抗震性能进行了研究。结果表明,横桥向采用预压弹簧自复位耗能支撑的斜拉桥减震体系利用支撑良好的滞回耗能特性,有效减小桥塔位移和应变,改善桥塔受力,减小主梁的残余位移。附加预压弹簧自复位耗能支撑对斜拉桥地震响应有良好减震控制效果,是一种合理的抗震体系。     

基于地震碰撞易损性的相邻结构临界间距研究

提出了一种基于近似解析的地震碰撞易损性确定相邻结构临界间距的方法。首先根据基于性能的抗震设计理论,将碰撞事件表示为单势垒首次超限可靠度问题;其次,通过随机振动理论得到不同地震动强度下结构体系的条件失效概率;然后,结合相邻结构的地震碰撞易损性,将临界间距的计算表述为逆可靠性问题,求出在结构设计使用年限内,某一具体目标碰撞概率所对应的临界间距值,通过蒙特卡洛数值模拟方法进行的相关验证,证实了上述理论的适用性与有效性。     

基于Copula函数的并联结构系统可靠度分析

不完备概率信息条件下变量联合分布函数的确定及其对结构系统可靠度的影响还缺少系统地研究,该文目的在于研究表征变量间相关性的Copula函数对结构系统可靠度的影响规律。首先,简要介绍了变量联合分布函数构造的Copula函数方法。其次,提出了并联系统失效概率计算方法,并推导了相应的计算公式。最后以几种典型Copula函数为例研究了Copula函数类型对结构并联系统可靠度的影响规律。结果表明:表征变量间相关性的Copula函数类型对结构系统可靠度具有明显的影响,不同Copula函数计算的系统失效概率存在明显的差别,这种差别随构件失效概率的减小而增大。当并联系统的失效区域位于Copula函数尾部时,Copula函数的尾部相关性对系统可靠度有明显的影响,计算的失效概率比没有尾部相关性的Copula函数的失效概率大。当组成并联系统的两构件功能函数间正相关时,系统失效概率随相关系数的增大而增加;当构件功能函数间负相关时,系统失效概率随相关系数的增大而减小。此外,无论构件失效概率和变量间相关系数如何变化,Copula函数计算的失效概率都位于系统失效概率的上下限内。     

公路斜交梁桥地震易损性模型研究

采用增量动力分析方法建立公路斜交梁桥地震易损性模型并开展易损性简化计算方法研究。依据不同的墩柱形式、支承形式及新旧规范将公路斜交梁桥分成8种桥型,统计桥梁结构参数并采用随机抽样方法确定其相应取值,依此装配生成240个基准桥梁样本,同时进行斜交角度变换建构新的桥梁样本。基于增量动力分析方法对相同斜交角下桥梁样本进行分析并建立易损性模型,重点研究斜交角与易损性参数之间的关系。研究发现:易损性模型中位值大致随斜交角的增加而减小,对数标准差则呈相反趋势。以计算得到的易损性模型参数为样本,拟合提出适用我国斜交梁桥的中位值修正系数公式,同时给出对数标准差的建议值,进一步总结公路斜交梁桥地震易损性简化计算方法,结果可为后续斜交梁桥地震风险评估及加固规范修订提供参考依据。     

Fault Diagnosis Improvement Using Dynamic Fault Model in Optimal Sensor Placement: A Case Study of Steam Turbine

Health data are collected dominantly through sensors mounted on different locations in the system. Optimization of sensor network has a significant influence on the reliability of system health prognostics process. In this research, the effect of sensors reliability is studied on their placement optimization. Sensors are considered in this study as components in system failure model. This study is aimed to use ‘Priority AND’ gate for evaluating the effect of time dependencies of sensors as well as components failure on the optimal sensor placement. Because of that, PAND gate is added to the fault tree between all sensors and their corresponding components to develop the failure model of each sensor placement scenario. For calculating the probability of top event, a Monte Carlo‐based algebraic approach is proposed. In algebraic approach, temporal operator ‘BEFORE’ is proposed for calculating the probability of ‘PAND’ gate. The result of using ‘BEFORE’ operator is an analytical solution for probability of each cut sequence. Because of the complexity of analytical solution in practical problems, a Monte Carlo simulation is utilized on the solution in this research. Then the probability of each cut sequence is calculated. Consequently, the probability of top event for each scenario is obtained. Finally, all scenarios are ranked based on top event probabilities. As a case study, optimization of sensor placement has been demonstrated on steam turbine and results are discussed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.