The Slow Pace of Rapid Technological Change: Gradualism and Punctuation in Technological Change

Discussions of technological change have offered sharply contrastingperspectives of technological change as gradual or incrementaland the image of technological change as being rapid, even discontinuous.These alternative perspectives are bridged using the punctuatedequilibrium framework of evolutionary biology. Using this framework,it is argued that the critical event is not a transformationof the technology, but speciation—the application of existingtechnology to a new domain of application. As a result of thedistinct selection criteria and the degree of resource abundancein the new domain, a new technological form may emerge. Thenew technological form may be able to penetrate other nichesand, in particular, may precipitate a process of ‘creativedestruction’ and out-compete prior technologies. Thisframework is applied to an historical study of wireless communicationfrom the early experimental efforts of Hertz to the modern developmentof wireless telephony.     

Technology strategy and sustained growth: Poland in the European Union

Technology has long been the foundation of corporate success and sustainable national growth. Recognition of the central role played by technology development, particularly, where global linkages are proliferating and intensifying, has resulted in many countries formulating national strategies for technological advancement. This article focuses on the technological performance and capabilities of Poland during the post-communist period. It is argued that for emerging nations like Poland, the absorption of existing technologies (from domestic and foreign sources) is at least as important as developing new and innovative technologies. Technology absorption and innovation capabilities are intimately dependent upon (and, in their turn, influence) the government and other societal institutions. A framework for technology development is articulated and brought to bear on the information available on Poland's technological status particularly as a member of the European Union. Technology strategies are recommended to enable Poland to build competences to deal with the emerging challenges and opportunities in a highly competitive international environment.     

New vistas for technology and risk assessment? The OECD Programme on Emerging Systemic Risks and beyond

This paper presents a framework for understanding risk from the perspective of technological innovation and change. Special focus is put on systemic technological change, which tends to affect several dimensions of society at the same time. By drawing on innovation theory, and exemplifying by reference to the OECD futures project on Emerging Systemic Risk, the article elaborates a framework for technology assessment where the central elements are ubiquitous technological change and risk. Several key dimensions for technology assessment of this kind are identified, including increased mobility of people and goods, magnitude and concentration of humans, the speed and depth of change in the risk landscape, public to private shifts in the ‘ownership’ of risk, and the role played by expectations and perception to risk. The article ends with suggesting a number of new norms for risk and technology assessment coupled with new risk methodologies for further investigation.     

New dogs,old tricks: making the case for the use of ABC effect evaluation in the ROI analysis of new technology and knowledge products: WR-AH

Abstract

The intended and unintended affective, behavioral, and cognitive (ABC) effects of a new product on end users often go unrecognized, yet these effects are critical components in its successful deployment, especially when the product claims to have powerful ABC effects on individuals who engage with it. Procurement groups need a method by which they can obtain evidence on the robustness of these ABC claims to inform their decision making. This will require the use of uniform principles of ABC evaluations to generate novel evidence that can support decision makers tasked with investing in technology and knowledge products. We propose developing five principles to support successful product evaluation: 1. Technology evaluators must identify the intended and unintended ABC consequences of the technology under investigation; 2. Technology evaluators must establish a rigorous design framework to evaluate the technology; 3. Conclusions of the investigation must inform a return-on-investment framework; 4. Turnaround time on rapid cycle evaluations of technology must show fidelity to their title (i.e. the evaluation needs to be complete is an acceptable timeframe to be used for decision making); 5. The information generated must be actionable for stakeholders charged with making a decision concerning which technologies to invest in.     

Science,technology and design

It is argued, through a historical review of human inquiry systems, that contemporary science is not in epistemological chaos as suggested by some authors. It should not, therefore, be overlooked as a source of constitutive knowledge relevant to the activity of design. It is suggested that the present state of scientific epistemology embodies the principles not only of science but also those of technology, industry and society, and that design should be viewed as an activity in conjunction with this paradigmatic organization and not solely as a technological activity.     

Technology Assessment in Social Context: The case for a new framework for assessing and shaping technological developments

Traditional expert (or technocratic) approaches to Technology Assessment have been fundamentally challenged by two observations. The first is that social impacts are not side effects of technology; they are core dimensions of new technology and technological development, and are a function of the coproduction of technology and society. As such, they can only be understood in social, not technical terms. Secondly, technological developments are driven by particular visions for society that are normative. Because these visions (and the latent premises that underpin them) are implicit and not negotiated by society, they are, in effect, undemocratic. Participatory methods have been utilized by Technology Assessment to improve the evaluation of the social and ethical dimensions of technology, and to democratize decision making about science and technology. However, we argue that public participation on its own does not necessarily lead to deeper understandings of social effects, nor necessarily to democratic input into decision making. We therefore make a case for a new form of Technology Assessment which we call TASC — Technology Assessment in Social Context. It takes a constructive, social systems approach to assess technology in social context and seeks to shape technology and social contexts through information, interaction and dialogue.     

EVOLUTION OF TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES FOR TAIWAN'S SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY: FORMATION OF RESEARCH CONSORTIA

As the world enters the twenty-first century, technology is now more than ever the key factor in the promotion of industrial development and economic growth. This presents an enormous but unavoidable challenge for developing countries; they must carry out their industrial technology development in such a way as to create strong high-tech industries that can successfully compete in the global market, while moving their national economies in the direction of prosperity. In light of these challenges, an overall technology development strategy has become the critical success factor for an industry in terms of technology acquisition, diffusion and application. Over the course of the past three decades, Taiwan has regarded the semiconductor industry as one of the most strategically important of the high-tech industries. Since starting with a few downstream assembly plants in the 1960s, the semiconductor industry has developed into a comprehensive industrial system with vertical and horizontal division of labor. It has gone through various growth stages, involving foreign-capital-based assembly, manufacturing technology transfer, growth of local plants, industrial system expansion and upgrading by industrial cooperation. The corresponding strategies for technology development cover technology introduction, technology transfer and cooperative R&D, with gradually escalating technological capabilities successfully encouraging industrial growth. The semiconductor industry has not only become the leading industry of the Hsinchu Science-based Industrial Park, but it has also generated revenues ranked fourth highest in the world. This article studies strategies adopted at different stages by Taiwan's semiconductor industry in its technological development, focusing specifically on the research consortium strategy and the case of the industry consortium, the Advanced Semiconductor Technology Research Organization (ASTRO).     

Governing the progress of internet-of-things: Ambivalence in the quest of technology exploitation and user rights protection

This paper discusses the dynamics between the pursuit of competitiveness and governance of data security in strengthening the Internet of Things (IoT) readiness in developing economies using Malaysia as a case study. It explores the potential of the IoT regulatory framework in guarding the privacy and interests of IoT users. This paper also reveals the collaborative model of technology push-market pull for technological capabilities development as well as the measures that uphold the principles of good privacy practice. The model incorporates privacy-by-design measures that would result in higher user confidence in this emerging technology, which is vital to a healthy IoT ecosystem. Through the collaborative model of Penang as evidence, our findings indicate that Malaysia seeks to create a structure that fosters technology push-market pull forces for IoT technological capabilities development. While the model paves a co-evolutionary path for diffusion and upgrading of IoT, several issues related to the volatility of online data and databases were identified as well as the lack of responsibility and accountability of corporations in handling the sensitive personal data of customers. We see that it is essential for the regulators to play a (more) significant role in safeguarding the interests of IoT users. In this regard, the privacy-by-design, a citizen-centric regulatory framework should be considered in policy reviews in deploying IoT-based competitive promotion initiatives. This paper breaks new ground by elaborating on the common route of IoT technology capabilities development, which is typical in the developing context. While it highlights the common issues that emerge as technology advances, we propose a regulatory framework that features embedded privacy-by-design to protect the interests of the IoT users.     

基于H5技术的微信交互式广告在交互设计方面的“优势整合”创新思考

目的通过对当今多媒体交互式广告发展现状的介绍,重点对H5技术的特性、实现方式、创新案例等进行分析与探究,从而对移动社交平台的交互式广告的交互设计进行更为深层的创新思考。方法从H5技术的核心功能、微信H5广告现有互动形式分析来总结目前微信交互广告基于H5技术发展的优势和不足,从而对H5交互广告在交互形式和交互手段方面提出"优势整合"的创新设计思路。结论交互设计的创新关键在于基于H5技术所带来的交互手段对现有各种交互形式进行"优势整合",从而更好地突出品牌化设计理念和人性化用户体验。     

The technology assessment and forecast program of the United States patent and trademark office

Often overlooked is the wealth of information in patents that makes patents useful to public policy making agencies and corporate management, among others. The source of this information is the bibliographic and classification data associated with each patent. much of which is required by law and hence is extremely accurate. These data serve to fingerprint the increment of technological activity disclosed in a patent. Possible ways of using the data include: — identification of emerging technologies — Monotoring foreign activity — identification of “actors” in the technology — tracking applications and impacts of a technologyThe objective of the technology assessment and forecast program of the United States Patent and Trademark Office is to stimulate the use of the patent file of the Office. The Office of Technology Assessment and Forecast (OTAF), which administers the program has assembled a master data base covering all U.S. patents. It periodically updates this base and adds new data items to it.     

科技诚信标准化工作思路探讨

随着科技诚信体系建设的不断深化,各地科教诚信管理办法不断出台,在体系建设取得丰硕成果的同时也造成了体系建设条块分割、信用评价形式各异、评价结果应用范围受限等问题,迫切需要对科技诚信进行标准化和规范化。针对这一情况,本文在对科技诚信标准化的现状和需求分析的基础上,探讨了科技诚信标准体系建设并给出了标准化工作建议。     

The role of technical expertise in policy implementation: Forestry management in northern Spain

This paper examines the institutional pursuit of the technological fix in a particular case concerning forestry management in northern Spain. Scholars in Science, Technology, and Society (STS) studies have devoted much attention to the criticism of technological determinism, as well as to uncovering the social underpinnings of technological artifacts, disputes, and disasters. But the political role of technical expertise in the closure of social controversies has not been the object of similar historical or case-study STS research. In many instances, transformation of social issues into technical ones by means of “neutral” legal measures and administrative practice lets a form of technocracy in through the back door.     

Bedarf an Qualifizierungsmaßnahmen aus Sicht der Großindustrie in der Oberflächentechnik

Future‐oriented quality production in the surface technology requires more than the accurate fulfilment of the customer requirements. In the external customer‐supplier relationships the co‐workers of large enterprises are increasingly in demand as advisors for their customers, they regularly take part in the product development phase at the customer contribution their know‐how in order to ensure the optimal conditions for the surface treatment. Because of this the importance of social and methodical skills is increasing for technological, technical and high‐level personnel. Personal with these qualifications are hard to find in the job market. The enterprises specialising in surface‐technological services are not even able to cover their needs at a purely technical know‐how level. The consequence: “We have to train the people ourselves”. Training activities initiated by the enterprises are becoming more important parallel to this more is being invested in public relations work and advertising. This conclusion was arrived at after carrying out a analysis of the future training requirements for the large‐scale industry on the basis of four case studies in the mechanical engineering, chemistry, steel industry and automotive industry. The analysis of these case studies is supplemented and rounded off by the postal questioning of a further 28 large‐scale enterprises. The investigation was carried out by the Institute for knowledge transfer at the University of Bremen (IfW) on behalf of the Federal Ministry for education and research (BMBF) by the VDI Technologiezentrum and is a component of the project “Technology transfer surface technology”.     

Patent and literature statistics – The case of optoelectronics

The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of different statistical analyses from patent and literature databases that in combination are helpful for a variety of mostly strategic decision settings in firms. For the case of optoelectronics we assess the patenting and publishing activity of firms and individuals and their citation frequency.The analyses identified leading players in the field, revealed technological dependencies, and the existence of patent clusters as patenting strategies. Co-citation analysis highlighted technological similarities between two firms involved in patent litigation trials. In this science-based technology field individuals combining characteristics of key inventors (a high activity and citation level in patenting) as well as core scientists (a high activity and citation frequency level in publishing) – therefore labelled “R&D dualists” – successfully bridge the gap between science and technology, but are exceptionally rare. Citation-weighted patent counts demonstrated the pivotal impact of one “R&D dualist” in an industrial R&D laboratory, severely affecting the laboratories’ outcome when this individual left. An increasing level of R&D cooperation in particular technological subfields after the individual’s departure could be found. However, patent analysis did not find evidence for long-term competence transfer in these subfields.     

Anwendungsfelder moderner Oberflächentechnik bei Anbietern oberflächentechnologischer Dienstleistungen

Concerning the transfer of results from research and development into commercial business practice for small and middle sized enterprises, offering surface‐technological services, the situation is generally better than aspected. This is the conclusion arrived at by the Institut for knowledge transfer at the University of Bremen (IfW) after carrying out a random analysis of the enterprises offering surface technology services. The study is a component of the project “Technology transfer surface technology”, which is accomplished on behalf the Federal Ministry for education and research (BMBF) by the VDI Technologiezentrum. Two thirds of the enterprises asked plan to introduce new procedures or modernize and/or supplement existing procedures in the next two years. All the same one third plans on top of this to use new layer materials. At present the situation regarding the application of modern surface technology, shows that the correct application of the surface and layer technologies bears fruits. The degree to which thermal spraying and the PVD and CVD techniques are applied has increased. Old procedures are rapidly being displaced by innovative and more pollution free procedures – especially in the field of thermal treatment. The technological developments planned for the next two years by the enterprises asked show that the degree with which the technologies specified above are spreading will continue to increase. Also the predication as to, which industries will be ranked in the future as important customers of the surface‐technological services, is changing. While the enterprises evaluate the situation toke restrained in the electro‐technology and electronics industry. An increased demand from air and space industry is expected. Moreover a clear increase in the paper and graphic arts industry is predicted.     

The evolvability of programmable hardware

In biological systems, individual phenotypes are typically adopted by multiple genotypes. Examples include protein structure phenotypes, where each structure can be adopted by a myriad individual amino acid sequence genotypes. These genotypes form vast connected ‘neutral networks’ in genotype space. The size of such neutral networks endows biological systems not only with robustness to genetic change, but also with the ability to evolve a vast number of novel phenotypes that occur near any one neutral network. Whether technological systems can be designed to have similar properties is poorly understood. Here we ask this question for a class of programmable electronic circuits that compute digital logic functions. The functional flexibility of such circuits is important in many applications, including applications of evolutionary principles to circuit design. The functions they compute are at the heart of all digital computation. We explore a vast space of 10⁴⁵ logic circuits (‘genotypes’) and 10¹⁹ logic functions (‘phenotypes’). We demonstrate that circuits that compute the same logic function are connected in large neutral networks that span circuit space. Their robustness or fault-tolerance varies very widely. The vicinity of each neutral network contains circuits with a broad range of novel functions. Two circuits computing different functions can usually be converted into one another via few changes in their architecture. These observations show that properties important for the evolvability of biological systems exist in a commercially important class of electronic circuitry. They also point to generic ways to generate fault-tolerant, adaptable and evolvable electronic circuitry.     

Wissenstransfer Oberflächentechnik

Knowledge Transfer in Surface Technology »Wissenstransfer Oberflächentechnik« (knowledge transfer in surface technology) aims at existing and expected potentials of modern surface technology for the german economy. The main goals are knowledge transfer, acceleration of innovation and growth of competitiveness and technological performance capability. The target group mainly consists of Small and Medium Enterprises orientated to innovation. This initiative is untertaken by the VDI‐Technology Center Düsseldorf on behalf of the German Ministery of Education and Research. Preliminary results are already available.     

Patent data as indicators of wind power technology development

This paper reports a study into the use of patent application numbers as indicators of technological development in the field of wind power technology. We show that patent information can be used to analyse the evolution and the level of maturity of this particular technology. The data is gained from databases available at the Swedish Patent and Registration Office (PRV). Three different segments of wind power technology; rotor form, regulation and pitch adjusting, are distinguished and maturity in respective parts is compared to the general technological progress.     

50th Anniversary Article: Seeing Stresses through the Thermoelastic Lens—A Retrospective and Prospective from an Australian Viewpoint

Thermoelastic stress analysis (TSA) has been around for the past 30 years, but to date, it is still a very much underrated and under‐utilised experimental technique. Although there are devoted groups of practitioners in some industries, this technology is not well known within the aerospace sector. In contrast, the Aerospace Division of the Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO) in Australia has been in the forefront of this technology for some time, achieving many pioneering feats. This paper gives a brief introduction to the development of this technology from a historical perspective, then focuses on a number of innovations that have stemmed from DSTO, including the development and application of the world's first focal plane array based TSA system and, more recently, the development of small and robust microbolometer based systems. For the latter, it is shown that despite nominally poorer temperature sensitivities, they make ideal TSA devices and can in some cases outperform their much more expensive photon detector counterparts. Because of this, together with the enormous practical advantages of microbolometers, the future of TSA is shown to be brighter than ever. Specifically, it is argued that such TSA systems can play a major role in the pervasive and persistent surveillance of full scale fatigue testing of aircraft structures. By detecting both design and developing faults early, it can effectively relieve cost and schedule penalties that are often associated with unanticipated failures. To realise this capability, integration of this technology with autonomous systems will be important, and some preliminary but promising results from a technology demonstrator program are presented.     

Information technologies as vehicles of evolution

All evolution can be viewed as the progressive development of embodied knowledge-moving from unicellular organisms so structured that they can grow and reproduce to complex technological artifacts that successfully ply and change the environment. Such cognitive evolution takes on a new and uniquely human form when technology is directed toward the acquisition of knowledge. This paper examines the contributions of four kinds of information technology - perception extenders (microscopes, telescopes); cognitive processing enhancers (computers); disseminators of information via high levels of abstraction (written languages); and disseminators of information via high levels of realism (photography and video). This is a shortened version of a paper included in C. Mitcham and Alois Huning, eds., Philosophy and Technology II: Information Technology and Computers in Theory and Practice (Boston: D. Reidel, in press), and is included here with permission.