影响全国与北京工业能源消费的关键要素对比分析

全国能源强度2002年开始上升,北京能源强度却一直呈现下降态势;这不仅和北京第三产业快速发展相关,而且北京工业能源强度也保持了下降趋势。基于对数均值迪氏指数分解法,将能源消费分解成规模效应、结构效应和效率效应,对1998～2006年的北京及全国工业能源消费量进行了分解及对比分析。研究表明,效率效应对全国工业能源消费下降起到了比较显著的作用,而结构效应和效率效应共同促使北京的能源消费降低。与全国相比,北京大力促进高科技产业的发展,控制黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、化学工业等高耗能工业的发展,是其工业能源强度迅速降低的一个重要原因。最后,分析了北京能源强度快速下降对全国的启示,并提出了全国能源消费进一步降低的政策建议。     

新型工业化道路对能源消费的影响

新型工业化道路不仅是相对我国传统的工业化道路而言,而且与西方发达国家工业化的实现方式也有较大的区别。理论分析表明,这些区别的存在必然会对能源消费产生重要影响。以信息化带动工业化是新型工业化道路的主要特点,其不仅会加快工业化的进程,影响工业化过程产业结构的演变,而且会大大降低能源消费强度。发挥人力资源的优势,降低资源消费的工业发展方式将直接加快以节约资源为主的技术进步的步伐,节能方面的技术投入会有较大的增长。新型工业化道路将避免重复工业发达国家先污染后治理的老路,我国以煤为主的能源消费结构在工业化推进过程中会逐步得到改变。     

能源消费碳排放强度与工业化进程函数关系模型研究——以云南省为例

在借鉴环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）的基础上,利用云南省1980-2010年的数据,通过分析能源消费碳排放强度与工业化的关系,建立了工业化进程与能源消费碳排放强度函数关系模型．结果表明：云南省的工业化与能源消费碳排放强度之间呈现倒N型关系,即随着工业化进程的推进,能源消费碳排放强度先下降后上升再下降;目前云南省已跨过第二个拐点,处于下降阶段．通过对2015年的能源消费碳排放强度预测发现,按照目前的工业化增长速度虽然可完成下降目标,但仍不可放松节能减排的步伐．     

国外单位GDP能耗演变历史及启示

国际经验表明,发达国家同样经历过单位GDP能耗的上升阶段。出现这一阶段是本国在同一时期内原材料消费强度高涨导致的,而原材料消耗强度高涨是社会发展全面转向机械化大生产和工业时代的现代家园建设带来的。发达国家单位GDP能耗从上升转为下降的拐点处于第二产业比重仍比较高的时期,其直接原因是本国工业向高端升级,工业化后期第三产业的发展巩固了单位GDP能耗的下降。我国应将万元GDP能耗降低目标上升为“走新型工业化道路”的标志性指标,将推动工业发展走向高端作为当前阶段降低单位GDP能耗的主要途径。     

近年我国能源消费变化分析及其对能源发展战略的启示

纵观我国10余年的能源消费变化情况显示出:总量上升过快,2000～2010年间我国能源消费年均增长率达11.58%,而同期世界均值仅为2.81%;能源消费弹性系数过高、能源强度大,2010年达到0.77t标油/千美元,明显高于世界和OECD国家均值,亦高于不少发展中国家。能源消费构成也未得到明显改善,煤炭所占份额高、消费增长快;石油消费量和进口量增长较快,但占能源消费总量的份额却下降;新能源所占份额较低。中国必须改变经济和能源发展方式,调整结构,大幅降低能源强度,进而降低能源消费增速,但近10年发展的回顾提醒我们,其落实存在一定难度。经济增速过快、经济结构失调是能源消费增长过快的主要原因,适中的经济增长率是保障能源消费弹性系数较低、节能指标得以落实的前提条件。煤炭的高效清洁利用是中国的必然选择,同时,对非化石能源的发展要有客观的估计,政府或其他方面的补贴应主要用于科研、用于由实验室向大规模应用之间过渡性的工业化试验,拔苗助长将适得其反。在能源战略上应强调节能减排、总量控制,结构优化、多元互补,均衡发展、因地制宜。把节约能源、降低能源强度作为国策放在能源战略的首位,逐步增大石油,特别是天然气、一次电力和新能源的比例,降低煤炭在能源构成中的份额。要走因地制宜、多元化互补发展之路,多侧面、多方式、多途径地实现能源供应和消费的广义多元化。     

绿色电力向我们走来——悄然变化的能源结构

随着工业化和人类文明进程的变换，能源角色次第登台。煤、石油、天然气、水能、核能、风能、太阳能……每一个角色都光彩夺目，为社会发展立下汗马功劳。自人类进入近代工业社会以来，能源结构有3次调整：第一次是18世纪下半叶英国产业革命以后，由传统的柴薪能源迅速转向以煤为主的能源结构，直到20世纪初，煤炭在工业国家能源构成中的比例占到95％，由此推动了     

2020年我国能源电力消费及碳排放强度情景分析

在工业化和现代化的进程中,无论是总量还是人均,我国能源和电力消费都将快速增长,且用电量的增速更快于能源消费。我国低碳经济的发展应以不断降低碳排放强度为目标,从优化产业结构和优化能源消费结构2方面同时着手实施,情景分析表明,我国2020年碳排放强度有望比2007年降低33%～37%。     

风能——迅速发展的新能源

近年来 ,风能已成为世界上发展最迅速的能源 ,预计今后 1 0年内其年增长率将达到 2 0 %。据美国风能协会的统计数字 ,1 999年全世界新增风力发电装机容量达 360 0ＭＷ以上 ,比上一年增加 36% ,使全世界的风力发电总装机容量达到 1 340 0ＭＷ。风能发展最快的国家是丹麦、德国和西班牙 ,其次是美国、中国和印度。风能被称为“未来的能源” ,它与传统能源如煤、石油和原子能不同 ,既不会对环境造成污染 ,也不会枯竭。在生活水平逐渐上升的发展中国家 ,风能是一种安装简便而有效的能源 ,而且常常是可向偏远地区供电的唯一方式。在工业化国家 ,…     

建设“碳中和”的现代化强国始终要把节能增效放在突出位置

“十一五”以来,节能工作对我国经济社会可持续发展做出了重大贡献,推动我国走上了一条以能源节约为特征的新型工业化、城镇化发展道路。我国已经开启建设社会主义现代化国家新征程,面向2030年前二氧化碳排放达峰、2035年基本实现社会主义现代化、2050年建成社会主义现代化强国、2060年前实现“碳中和”的宏伟目标,我国不能再重复发达国家人均能耗先大幅增长、再逐步下降的发展路径。要始终把节能高效放在现代化国家建设的突出位置,推动我国走上一条以高能效、低能耗、面向“碳中和”的新型现代化道路,加快建成能源节约型现代化国家。     

解决石油危机的科学技术

到目前为止,石油仍是关键的能源,特别对工业化国家,石油是最重要的能源。由于工业化国家消耗的石油有相当大一部分要依靠进口,因此每当国际政治形势发生变化时,对石油的控制权往往成为政治和军事斗争的目标,并造成西方世界一次次的石油危机。为了减少对进口石油的依赖性,工业发达国家和少油国家除大力开发太阳能、风能、潮汐     

Climate policy: Bucket or drainer?

Worldwide, industry is responsible for about 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, making it an important target for climate policy. Energy-intensive industries may be particularly vulnerable to higher energy costs caused by climate policy. If companies cannot offset rising energy costs and would face increased competition from countries without climate policy, they may decide to relocate their industrial production to the countries without climate policy. The resulting net effect of climate policy on GHG emissions in foreign countries is typically referred to as “carbon leakage”. Carbon leakage may lead to higher global GHG emissions due to the use of less advanced technology in less developed countries. Based on a literature review of climate policy, earlier environmental policy and analyses of historical trends, this paper assesses the carbon leakage effects of climate policy for energy-intensive industries. Reviews of past trends in production location of energy-intensive industries show an increased global production share of Non-Annex 1 countries. However, from empirical analyses we conclude that the trend is primarily driven by regional demand growth. In contrast, climate policy models show a strong carbon leakage. Even though future climate policy may have a more profound impact than environmental policies in the past, the modelling results are doubtful. Leakage generally seems to be overestimated in current models, especially as potential positive spillovers are often not included in the models. The ambiguity of the empirical analyses and the modelling results warrants further research in the importance of production factors for relocation.     

Energy intensity and firm growth

Using micro-level data, we attempt to identify the causal relationship between improvement (decline) in energy intensity and firm growth in six countries, namely, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, the U.K., and the U.S., and 21 manufacturing industries during the period 1991 to 2005. We run a panel regression of firm growth using the inverse of a country- and industry-specific relative energy intensity (REI) measure with the corresponding industrial sector in the reference case (the U.S. industry) in addition to the inverse of the traditional energy intensity measure (EI) after controlling several firm, industry, and country variables.We find that EI and REI may have somewhat different impacts on firm growth in terms of profits and capital accumulation. When we control the heterogeneity in industrial dependence on energy, firm profits in the industry club with lower REI grow faster than the six-country average. Compared to the six country case, we find that the efficient use of energy inputs has made a smaller contribution to firm growth in Korea.     

Accounting for early action in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme

In the context of emission markets, failure to include early action (EA) as a criterion when sharing out the reduction effort may be unfair. This paper presents (1) a method based on index decomposition that seeks to quantify EA and (2) a method for determining effort sharing considering EA. It is shown that, in the case of European industry (EU-15) and for the period 1995–2005, EA accounted for a reduction of 21% in energy-related CO₂ emissions. Considering two alternative schemes for sharing out the reduction effort in European industry, equal shares (all industries in all countries reduce their emissions by the same percentage) and taking EA into account, we find that Spain, Austria, Italy, the United Kingdom and Sweden would be better off under an equal shares scheme as opposed to one that takes EA into account. The efforts of the remaining countries would be greater than if EA was taken into account. An equal shares scheme would also greatly benefit the textile, non-metallic mineral, paper and “other” industries, and would be particularly detrimental to the chemical, non-ferrous and other metal, and engineering industries.     

基于DEA的我国全要素能源效率区域差异性研究

将我国省、市、自治区划分为沿海、东北、中部、西部四大区域,基于DEA模型,以我国1995~2012年间的资本存量、劳动力和能源消费作为投入指标,以各省市历年实际GDP为产出指标,对我国四大区域全要素能源效率进行了测算。研究结果表明,我国区域能源利用效率发展极不均衡,必须根据不同地区发展状况制定不同的能源战略。沿海省市应充分利用区位优势,积极引进国外优质能源以及先进技术,进一步提高化石能源利用效率并促进新能源开发。东北地区要努力发展高新技术产业,降低传统产业的比重,加大电力、天然气等优质能源在能源消费中的比重。中部地区应对第二产业进行优化调整,降低粗加工、低附加值等高能耗、低效益的行业所占比重,着力发展通信、物流、金融等现代第三产业。西部地区应开发具有地区特色和民族特色的旅游业,全力推进新能源产业化的发展。     

Changes in energy demand in Thai industry between 1981 and 2000

Industrial demand accounts for about 30% of total final energy demand in Thailand, which experienced rapid increases in energy demand in the past two decades. This paper analyzes the changes in industrial energy demand over a period of 20 years from 1981 to 2000 by considering changes in demand pattern, fuel consumption and energy intensities. It identifies the factors affecting the energy consumption by employing the factor decomposition technique using Laspeyres approach. It is found that the share of food and beverage industry declined in terms of value addition and energy demand, while the shares of chemical and non-metallic minerals industries have increased. The energy intensity of industry has followed a U-shaped curve but post-1997, the trend is upward looking. At the overall industry level, the activity effect was the major factor affecting energy demand, followed by the energy intensity effect. Changes in the food and beverage industry and non-metallic industry have significantly influenced the energy demand of the industrial sector.     

LNG汽车发展现状及相关问题分析

近两年我国LNG汽车实现了快速发展,本文介绍了我国LNG汽车产业发展现状,分析了LNG汽车的特点及发展优势,并综合我国LNG汽车产业目前发展面临的问题及未来发展的不确定因素,结合我国宏观经济形势及天然气行业发展趋势,分析了LNG汽车产业的发展趋势。     

中国能源温室气体排放与可持续发展

全球气候变化对经济社会的可持续发展带来严重挑战。影响温室气体排放的因素主要有经济增长、人口、能源消费强度、能源结构等。预计中国2005～2020年GDP年均增长率为8.0%～8.6%。基准情景下,中国2050年能源需求总量达到66.19×108t标煤,人均能源消费量4.4t标煤,CO2排放量117.3×108t,能源消费弹性系数0.42,2020年CO2排放强度比2005年下降43%～48%;减排情景下,中国2050年能源消费量50.4×108t标煤,人均能源消费量3.5t标煤左右,CO2排放量70.7×108t,人均CO2排放量4.8t左右,能源消费弹性系数0.32,2020年CO2排放强度比2005年下降48%～52%,若能实现减排情景,则意味着中国已做到了低碳经济;而从可预见的技术条件以及清洁能源和可再生能源利用的规模来看,实现低碳情景难度很大。中国正处于工业化中期的发展阶段,能源需求增加是客观存在的,应力争转变经济增长方式,优化产业与产品结构,减少与控制高耗能产品出口,提高非化石能源比重和能源利用效率。发展中国家在应对全球气候变化行动中应制定中、短期目标与长期目标。中、短期目标即相对减排,中国政府制定的2020年CO2排放强度相对2005年降低40%～45%的约束性目标就属于相对减排;长期目标指的是当发展中国家实现工业化后,若全球技术发展迅猛,这时发展中国家温室气体的总量控制与减排才有可能做到。     

CO2 emissions and mitigation potential in China’s ammonia industry

Significant pressure from increasing CO₂ emissions and energy consumption in China’s industrialization process has highlighted a need to understand and mitigate the sources of these emissions. Ammonia production, as one of the most important fundamental industries in China, represents those heavy industries that contribute largely to this sharp increasing trend. In the country with the largest population in the world, ammonia output has undergone fast growth spurred by increasing demand for fertilizer of food production since 1950s. However, various types of technologies implemented in the industry make ammonia plants in China operate with huge differences in both energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. With consideration of these unique features, this paper attempts to estimate the amount of CO₂ emission from China’s ammonia production, and analyze the potential for carbon mitigation in the industry. Based on the estimation, related policy implications and measures required to realize the potential for mitigation are also discussed.     

Factors affecting transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Latin American and Caribbean countries: An LMDI decomposition analysis

This study determines the factors responsible for the growth of transport sector CO₂ emissions in 20 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries during the 1980–2005 period by decomposing the emissions growth into components associated with changes in fuel mix (FM), modal shift and economic growth, as well as changes in emission coefficients (EC) and transportation energy intensity (EI). The key finding of the study is that economic growth and the changes in transportation EI are the principal factors driving transport sector CO₂ emission growth in the countries considered. While economic growth is responsible for the increasing trend of transport sector CO₂ emissions in Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, Peru and Uruguay, the transportation EI effect is driving CO₂ emissions in Bolivia, the Caribbean, Cuba, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Other Latin America, Panama and Paraguay. Both economic activity (EA) and EI effects are found responsible for transport sector CO₂ emissions growth in the rest of the Latin American countries. In order to limit CO₂ emissions from the transportation sector in LAC countries, decoupling of the growth of CO₂ emissions from economic growth is necessary; this can be done through policy instruments to promote fuel switching, modal shifting and reductions in transport sector EI. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying energy inefficient industries vulnerable to trade dependence of energy sources

Korea has transformed itself from a developing country to an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member country and a donor for developing nations. It has ranked among the world’s top 10 energy-consuming countries. Its industrial sector depends heavily on the utilization of fossil fuels and consumes more than 45% of national energy expenditure. Plausible concerns about industrial energy inefficiency can upset the structural dependence of the whole Korean industry on the energy sector. Using Korea’s industrial input–output data from 2010 to 2012, this research conducts a simulation analysis on trade suspension resulting from shocks provided by each of the six energy industries. This study investigates the propagation of these shocks across 160 industries. We found that the petroleum, electricity, and town gas industries are the most influential energy industries in terms of diffusion of trade shocks to other industries, and the number of propagation steps of energy shocks decreases over time due to the industries’ unimproved energy inefficiency. Therefore, governments need to address this interdependence within energy sectors and between energy and non-energy industries, with integrated policies for energy efficiency and contingency plans.