日本提高核能公众接受度的工作研究

2011年3月,日本福岛核事故的发生在全世界引起了一场“反核”风暴。分析原因得知,公众对核电信任的丧失直接导致了对核能接受度的下降。相关信息的公开透明以及与民众展开积极的沟通、促进公众参与,已成为提高公众对核电信任的决定性因素。为了提高福岛核事故后公众的信任,日本做了很大的努力。调研了福岛核事故后,日本在信息公开、公众参与、公众沟通方面所做的工作,分析了我国在核能信息公开、公众参与的问题,并对我国如何提高核能公众接受度提出了建议。2011年3月,日本福岛核事故的发生在全世界引起了一场“反核”风暴。分析原因得知,公众对核电信任的丧失直接导致了对核能接受度的下降。相关信息的公开透明以及与民众展开积极的沟通、促进公众参与,已成为提高公众对核电信任的决定性因素。为了提高福岛核事故后公众的信任,日本做了很大的努力。调研了福岛核事故后,日本在信息公开、公众参与、公众沟通方面所做的工作,分析了我国在核能信息公开、公众参与的问题,并对我国如何提高核能公众接受度提出了建议。     

A cellular automaton model for the change of public attitude regarding nuclear energy

A model was constructed to investigate how the public opinion on nuclear energy varies depending upon information environment and personal communication between people. Here the nuclear risk informed of by the newsmedia and the frequency of anti-nuclear movements are treated as exogenous variables. The information environment is assumed to be represented in terms of public opinion as well as those exogenous variables, and the public are assumed to vary, randomly but homogeneously in a global sense, their attitude regarding nuclear energy in accordance with the strength of information environment. Personal communication begins round some opinion leaders who were excited by the information environment, and the attitude of the public who are affected by the opinion leaders are secondarily changed to anti-nuclear or pronuclear states. Moreover the public attitude is also changed naturally in an exponential way with time. Public opinion is supposed to appear as a superposed result of these three modes of attitudinal change. Such public opinion is fed back to the information environment. All the treatments are discretized and the process of personal communication is modeled by the cellular automaton method. Each cell in this approach is assumed to take one discrete state of six possible states which represent the status of public opinion. Model constants are determined by fitting calculations to the actual fraction of opinion in Japan. From simulation with this model, the following become clear: (i) The society is a highly non-linear system with a self-organizing potential: (ii) In the society composed of one type of constituent members with a homogeneous characteristic, the trend of public opinion is catastrophically turned over only when the effort for ameliorating the public acceptance extended over a long period of time, such as education, persuasion and advertisement, exceeds a certain threshold, and (iii) in the case when the amount of information on nuclear risk released from the newsmedia is reduced continuously from now on, the acceptability of nuclear energy is remarkably improved so far as the extent of the reduction exceeds a certain threshold.     

Status and progress of research on a removed-from-service steam generator

Under an NRC directed group sponsored project (including French, Italian, Japanese, and EPRI participation) a steam generator removed from service is the subject of extensive research. The generator now serves as a vehicle for studies involving validation of the accuracy and reliability of current nondestructive examination (NDE) characterization during inservice inspections, determination of remaining integrity of service defected steam generator tubes, determination of failure consequences (leak rate) of defects, and demonstration of cleaning and decontamination techniques. Program objectives are to provide inputs to regulatory guides on inservice inspection and tube plugging criteria.During the past year dilute chemical reagent decontamination of the steam generator channelhead using modified LOMI and Candecon processes, each on one side, has been completed. In addition to decontamination effectiveness other factors such as corrosivity during the process, methods for waste handling, and potential for affecting return to service of the component were evaluated. Following decontamination a subcontracted effort was conducted to remove a large number of plugs placed in the generator during its service life. In under three weeks 969 explosive type plugs were removed. This provided a new level of experience in large scale plug removal. The plug removal was to optimize access to defected steam generator tubes for nondestructive primary side characterization. The first of these nondestructive examinations was conducted toward fiscal year end, employing state-of-the-art eddy current technology. A map of the generator condition, as obtained from 100% eddy current examination, is being formed. In parallel with the above endeavors, extensive efforts have been made toward characterizing the secondary side of the generator. The tubesheet surface and the inner row U-bend regions have been extensively examined. Innovative photographic approaches have provided success in documenting generator conditions in the sludge pile area.     

基于F-AHP的核设施退役中辐射监测设备效用评估

使用AHP层次分析方法,对某核设施退役过程中所使用的六种辐射监测设备的效用影响因素进行等级分层,并结合模糊综合评判法,对每种监测设备进行不同因素综合评判分析。分析认为,电子个人剂量报警器的评判分最高,即电子个人剂量报警器的综合使用效益最高。     

Decision analytic tools for resolving uncertainty in the energy debate

Within the context of a Social Compatibility Study on Energy Supply Systems a complex decision making model was used to incorporate scientific expertize and public participation into the process of policy formulation and evaluation. The study was directed by the program group “Technology and Society” of the Nuclear Research Centre Jülich. It consisted of three parts: First, with the aid of value tree analysis the whole spectrum of concern and dimensions relevant to the energy issue in Germany was collected and structured in a combined value tree representing the values and criteria of nine important interest groups in the Federal Republic of Germany. Second, the revealed criteria were translated into indicators. Four different energy scenarios were evaluated with respect to each indicator making use of physical measurement, literature review and expert surveys. Third, the weights for each indicator were elicited by interviewing randomly chosen citizens. Those citizens were informed about the scenarios and their impacts prior to the weighting process in a four day seminar. As a result most citizens favoured more moderate energy scenarios assigning high priority to energy conservation. Nuclear energy was perceived as necessary energy source in the long run, but should be restricted to meet only the demand that cannot be covered by other energy means.     

Safety objectives for next generation reactors: Proving their achievement

Assuming that there is a consensus between regulatory bodies and nuclear operating organizations on safety objectives for future plants, how are we going to demonstrate that they have been achieved, with a reasonable certainty?Right from the beginning, I would like to underline the importance of convincing the public that high level safety objectives will be effectively achieved in future nuclear power plants. The mere fulfillment of administrative requirements might not be sufficient to obtain public acceptance. One has to take into account the changes that have occurred in the public preception of nuclear risks in the wake of the Chernobyl accident. Today public opinion rules out the possibility not only that such a catastrophic accident could recur, but also that any accident with detrimental health consequences off-site could occur. The nuclear industry has to reflect this concern in its safety demonstration, independently of proving the achievement of technical safety goals. The public opinion issue will be readdressed at the end of this paper.     

Recent applications of PSA for managing nuclear power plant safety

The safety design and regulation of nuclear power plants has traditionally been based upon deterministic approaches that consider a set of challenges to safety, e.g. design basis accidents, and determine how those challenges should be handled. The approach has been very successful since no plant designed or regulated to United States standards has ever harmed a member of the public. The arbitrary nature of these safety criteria, the potential inconsistencies in the judgments on relative probabilities, and the lack of definition for ‘safety’ became increasingly evident during the 1960s. Probabilistic approaches to reactor safety were proposed ^1,2,3 but did not take off in the United States until publication of the Reactor Safety Study ⁴ in 1975. Even as the methodology matured, there remained a challenge to integrate it into the regulatory process. This article will describe this integration process. A probabilistic approach to regulation enhances and extends the traditional deterministic approach by introducing the concept of safety (risk) significance that allows the designer/operator to focus on important issues. Emphasis was initially placed on relative risk but now regulatory decision-making is employing both relative and absolute risk. Measures of importance will be defined. Risk information can be used to prioritize the allocation of resources and three examples will be described. Equipment configuration control systems are being installed and used at nuclear power plants to enhance safety and to reduce Operating and Maintenance costs; they will be described. Finally, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's introduction of risk-informed decision-making into the regulatory process will be discussed.     

荷电粒子屏蔽探测器系统设计

介绍空间硬X射线调制望远镜的探测器系统设计。该探测器系统由6个60°扇型顶板和6个60°圆滑弧型侧壁单体探测器构成,每个单体采用塑料闪烁板镶嵌波长转移光纤构成,并通过小型低噪声光电倍增管连接到前置放大器。顶板探测器既要屏蔽荷电粒子,又要使X射线穿过效率高,因此闪烁板很薄。采取合理的镶嵌波长转移光纤的办法较好的解决了这个问题。测试结果表明荷电粒子屏蔽探测器系统满足总体设计要求。     

核电站选址阶段环境影响评价的公众参与问题

介绍和评述了环境评价活动中公众参与的法规内容,概述了国内外公众参与的方式方法和进展,基于已有的实践和经验,指出核电站选址阶段环境影响评价公众参与应当注意的几个问题.     

The impact of TMI upon the public acceptance of nuclear power

This paper discusses long-term trends in public attitudes toward nuclear power, focusing on the extent to which the accident at Three Mile Island appears to have affected public acceptance of nuclear energy. Public attitudes towards other energy production options also are considered, particularly in terms of changes that may be related to TMI. Finally, the relationships between attitudes toward nuclear power and perceptions of broader energy, environmental and social issues are examined. The data used in this analysis are from national surveys conducted by major national opinion research organizations from the early 1970s through 1981.

There is considerable evidence that TMI has had a significant impact on public acceptance of nuclear power, in the direction of increasing opposition to and decreasing support for construction of new nuclear power plants. TMI appears to have increased the rates of decline in support and rise in opposition to local construction of nuclear power plants, although a trend of decreasing public acceptance of such local construction had been in evidence since the mid-1970s, prior to TMI. In spite of this decline in public acceptance of new construction, there is substantial support for both completing nuclear power plants currently under construction and for the continued operation of existing plants.     

Experimental study on pullout strength of anchor bolt with an embedment depth of 30 mm in concrete under high temperature

Many anchor bolts are used in nuclear-related facilities in order to fast some equipments and pipes. About these anchor bolts, the possibilities should exist in being exposed to high temperature due to accident. However, little information is available regarding the effects of high temperatures on the behavior of anchor bolts. To obtain basic experimental data and to examine the response of cast-in-place anchor bolts to high temperature exposure, pullout strength of an anchor bolt during heating and after heating was examined. The maximum temperature in this test is 500 °C and two different rate of heating were prepared. Tests results show that pullout strength decreases with increasing surface temperature. Regardless of different rate of heating in this experiment, identical ratio of pullout strength of anchor bolt was obtained when the same temperature of concrete surrounding the bolt head was applied.     

双面硅条探测器的研制与测试

研制了双面硅条探测器。探测器灵敏面积为48mm×48mm,厚约300μm,结面和欧姆面的硅条互相垂直,均由相互平行、宽度相等的48条组成,每条宽0.9mm、间距0.1mm。对其电气特性(耗尽偏压、反向漏电流、条间电阻)和探测特性(上升时间、能量分辨、条间串扰)进行了测试。在偏压为-15V时,各条平均反向漏电流小于10nA。对于从结面入射的5.157 MeV的α粒子,前放信号上升时间约45ns,结面各条的能量分辨率约0.6%~0.7%,基本无条间串扰;欧姆面各条能量分辨率较差,存在条间串扰。     

Assessment of the radiation impact of steam generator dismantling on the workers,public and environment

Prediction of the exposure of workers and the impact on the public and environment is necessary for the planning of the decommissioning tasks. Planning and realisation of the dismantling process have to take into account many factors. This results in the creation of possible dismantling scenarios. Moreover, the input data such as nuclide composition and activity content often vary. In the case of a steam generator, the contamination level can differ even within the same nuclear power plant. The paper describes and applies the methodology used for complex analysis of the steam generator dismantling process in nuclear power plants using the VVER-440 reactor types.     

Political aspects of nuclear energy

In Switzerland as in other countries public opinion on nuclear energy has drastically changed with time. Surveys show that a majority at present favours abandoning nuclear energy in Switzerland, but does not consider feasible an immediate switchover to other forms of energy. The behaviour is contradictory because increasingly more electric power is used, even after Chernobyl. The resistance has many facets. The debate is largely focused on the question of future technological and economic development. Nuclear energy also became the scapegoat for a development of the last few decades it has not been responsible for (destruction of the environment, waste of natural resources). For the sake of the environment and future economic development, the continued use of nuclear energy has to be ensured. This calls for great efforts in order to convince the people that nuclear power is an essential and logical part of our energy supply. In this process, the fear of a nuclear energy and the unease about industrial society must not be dismissed as irrelevant.     

Simplified method for the seismic qualification using measured modal data

The seismic response estimation by the response spectrum method using only the experimental modal data are presented here. The modal participation factors (MPFs) used for the response estimation are calculated using the experimental mode shapes only. This response is compared with the response estimated using the conventional MPFs but the experimentally extracted mode shapes are used along with the mass matrix estimated corresponding to the measured degree of freedoms (dofs) using physical dimensions of the structure. The presented study eliminates the uncertainty associated with analytical modelling for evaluating mass matrix.     

Effect of Nuclear Education on Public Attitude

A method is proposed to assess the effect of nuclear education. In this method, the nuclear education is treated as a part of the activities for public acceptance (PA), and a unit PA activity is assumed to give the same effect on the public, in essence, as a unit of nuclear information given by the newsmedia. Moreover, the change of attitude to nuclear energy is assumed to originate from enhanced understanding which, in turn, is brought by the stimulus given by the nuclear education. With the values of constants determined by using the data in Japan, example calculations were made for the educational time b ₀ and the infiltration rate of education into minors B as parameters. It became clear from this calculation that the attitude to nuclear energy formed in the age of school children plays an essential role in shaping future public opinion since it is held in individuals without any notable modification for a long time after its formation, and that the effect of nuclear education to minors emerges depending on the variables b ₀ and B in a highly non-linear manner. It was also found that there exists an optimum condition for nuclear education to attain the maximum amelioration of public opinion under a given condition of man-power for educational workers.     

Empirical investigation on buckling and post-buckling behaviour of cell liners

In nuclear-related facilities, many concete walls and slabs are lined with thin stainless steel plates in order to insure against the risk of accidental air leakage during a severe earthquake. These liners are forcibly deformed with the deformation of the concrete walls and slabs during an earthquake. The purpose of this paper is to obtain basic empirical data on the shearing behaviour of thin steel plates attached to concrete, especially to understand the relationship between the shear strain of the plate and its lateral displacement, as fundamental research on the safety of lining plates. A new apparatus for measuring the lateral displacement of a lining plate by continuously scanning its surface is tested. The apparatus proves to be quite effective for understanding the buckling wave of the lining plate and the essential behaviour of a thin steel plate attached to a concrete wall subject to a shear force is clarified.     

Quantification model for estimating the radiological risks of decommissioning processes in nuclear facilities

This paper proposes a model for the quantification and estimating the radiological risks of decommissioning processes in nuclear facilities. Based on fuzzy linguistic variables, the membership function and inference rules were developed for quantifying the radiological risks of nuclear decommissioning processes. Also, the fuzzy inference system was developed and the proposed method was applied to the process of concrete decommissioning. The proposed model and system is flexible in that it allows a fast-computation of the subjective expert opinion when one or several input factors change. It is believed that the suggested model and system can be applied to evaluate the safety of complex systems by only changing the variable and inputs.     

岛屿公众核应急撤离时效探索——以福清市小麦屿为例

在集中撤离和自行撤离有机结合的基础上,开展仿真推演,估算分析在不同硬件配套设施情况下福清市小麦屿公众从岛内撤离至岛外的总体撤离时间,为开展小麦屿公众核应急防护行动提供技术基础,为小麦屿和其他核电厂周围岛屿公众核事故应急撤离提供启示。     

Advancing US public acceptance of spent fuel storage and transport: proposed outreach services for ionising radiation education support

Abstract

Expansion of commercial nuclear energy could be one of the future US sources for clean, safe, reliable and economic electricity. However, no federal policy has effectively achieved wide acceptance of nuclear energy, with such policies having fallen victim to the politics of public radiation fears from nuclear energy usage and from spent fuel storage and transport. Many experts have described the foundation of public fear as not so much nuclear technology, but the ionising radiation to which people fear they might be exposed, and this issue has been talked and written about, yet gone substantially unaddressed with respect to public education for more than three decades. In the USA, the Blue Ribbon Commission Final Report is just the latest of clear statements where such an educational need is firmly asserted. The lamentable fact is that no one has made that substantive and concerted effort to do anything about it. Indeed, the only effort seems to have been talk about ‘better communication’, with a focus on risk based communication. Any rejuvenation of public acceptance of commercial nuclear energy in the USA, including spent fuel storage and transport, can only be sustained using a different strategy from that of earlier decades. This paper highlights professional opinion on the radiation fear issue and why current industry efforts in risk based information for and communication with the public have not achieved the desired success. Education to expand the public’s understanding of comparative radiation sources and exposures while ameliorating concern about radiation from nuclear energy is the proposed alternative. In addition, here, the clear linkage between education supporting nuclear energy and facilitating necessary spent fuel storage and transport is unmistakable. The paper summarises a concept for outreach services for ionising radiation education support for application in the US, as well as key elements of such a process: its basis for success, its education content and potential implementation approaches. Comparative radiation education of the public can prove effective using current research, which has been effective in other industries. Additionally, while this discussion addresses the US situation, much of the content is likely applicable to many of the world’s nuclear energy producing countries.