Backward representation of Markov jump processes and related problems. I. Optimal linear estimation

Abstrat The Martingale representation for a class of special Markov jump processes in reverse time is derived and applied to study optimal linear filtering and smoothing of states of nonlinear observation systems. Original Russian Text ? A.V. Borisov, 2006, published in Avtomatika i Telemekhanika, 2006, No. 8, pp. 51–76. This work was supported in part by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 05-01-00508a, and OITVS Project “Fundamental Algorithms for Information Technologies,” Russian Academy of Sciences, project no. 1.5. This paper was recommended for publication by A.I. Kibzun, a member of the Editorial Board     

Information sharing across multiple humanitarian organizations—a web-based information exchange platform for project reporting

This article analyzes information sharing problems in the humanitarian development sector and proposes the concept of a web-based exchange platform to face some of the technical challenges. The “Development Information Exchange System” is a mediator-wrapper-architecture that uses XML documents to loosely couple autonomous and heterogeneous information systems. Detailed project information of humanitarian organizations that resides on data provider systems can be formatted with XSL stylesheets according to the needs of the users and shared within or between organizations. The system can help to close the control loop by providing qualitative information about humanitarian projects. This makes project management more efficient. The proposed architecture solves an interface problem between the various partners and stakeholders of humanitarian projects. It is a first step towards a service-oriented architecture between humanitarian organizations. The next step could be the definition of cross-organizational business processes. These processes may be defined platform-independently with the Business Process Execution Language for Web Services. A prototype of the exchange platform is presented and evaluated in this article.     

Generic prognosis model for proactive maintenance decision support: application to pre-industrial e-maintenance test bed

Proactivity in maintenance, which is mainly materialized by degradation-based anticipation, becomes essential to avoid failure situation with negative impact on product and/or system conditions. It leads to make emerging the E-maintenance philosophy to move from “fail and fix” maintenance practices to “predict and prevent” strategies. Within these new strategies, the anticipation action is fully supported by prognosis business process. Indeed it analyses the degradation impact on the component itself but also on the global performances of the production system in order to predict future failures of the system and investigate (future maintenance) actions. However, only few research works focuses on generic and scalable prognostic approach. Existing methods are generally restricted on component view and for solving the failure prediction issue. Consequently, the contribution presented in this paper aims at developing a global formalization of the generic prognosis business process. This generic process can be used after, from an instantiation procedure, to develop specific prognosis processes related to particular application such as shown in this paper with the case of E-maintenance platform developed within DYNAMITE Project.     

Management: a scientific discipline for humanity

This paper proposed a new concept of management: Managing According to Reason (MR). Since “manage” means to lead, plan, organize and control, and “reason” means to understand the law of the development of objects being managed, this new concept is an integration of the two elements of “managing” and “reason”. MR studies the contradictory relationship between “managing” and “reason”, and considers how such a relationship changes and develops. MR is an integration of the disciplines of management, philosophy, natural science, engineering technology, and social science. We believe the MR is a comprehensive scientific discipline that will greatly benefit humanity. Since “management” cannot work without power, while “reason” relies on science, MR is an integration of power and science. Power is MR’s assurance, and science is MR’s basis. We believe that MR will play a major role in twenty-first century.     

An integrated technology for intelligent software risk management

The paper presents a formalized technology for risk management intellectualized with new functions to increase the software process maturity. Intelligent risk management (IRM) is represented by a double spiral with “inner” turns being the processes of expert assessment of IRM objects to support the increased consistency of decisions and the efficiency of IRM participants. They link “outer” turns (the cycles of efficient risk mitigation in a common information environment at the levels of both developing organization and software project) to support the integration of project targets and improvement of software quality and strategic goals of the executing organization.     

Foundations of a new software engineering method for real-time systems

The design of a fault-tolerant distributed, real-time, embedded system with safety-critical concerns requires the use of formal languages. In this paper, we present the foundations of a new software engineering method for real-time systems that enables the integration of semiformal and formal notations. This new software engineering method is mostly based upon the ”COntinuuM” co-modeling methodology that we have used to integrate architecture models of real-time systems (Perseil and Pautet in 12th International conference on engineering of complex computer systems, ICECCS, IEEE Computer Society, Auckland, pp 371–376, 2007) (so we call it “Method C”), and a model-driven development process (ISBN 978-0-387-39361-2 in: From model-driven design to resource management for distributed embedded systems, Springer, chap. MDE benefits for distributed, real time and embedded systems, 2006). The method will be tested in the design and development of integrated modular avionics (IMA) frameworks, with DO178, DO254, DO297, and MILS-CC requirements.     

Opinion helpfulness prediction in the presence of “words of few mouths”

This paper identifies a widely existing phenomenon in social media content, which we call the “words of few mouths” phenomenon. This phenomenon challenges the development of recommender systems based on users’ online opinions by presenting additional sources of uncertainty. In the context of predicting the “helpfulness” of a review document based on users’ online votes on other reviews (where a user’s vote on a review is either HELPFUL or UNHELPFUL), the “words of few mouths” phenomenon corresponds to the case where a large fraction of the reviews are each voted only by very few users. Focusing on the “review helpfulness prediction” problem, we illustrate the challenges associated with the “words of few mouths” phenomenon in the training of a review helpfulness predictor. We advocate probabilistic approaches for recommender system development in the presence of “words of few mouths”. More concretely, we propose a probabilistic metric as the training target for conventional machine learning based predictors. Our empirical study using Support Vector Regression (SVR) augmented with the proposed probability metric demonstrates advantages of incorporating probabilistic methods in the training of the predictors. In addition to this “partially probabilistic” approach, we also develop a logistic regression based probabilistic model and correspondingly a learning algorithm for review helpfulness prediction. We demonstrate experimentally the superior performance of the logistic regression method over SVR, the prior art in review helpfulness prediction.     

Standardization in information security management

The paper describes the state of the art in the standardization in information security management. The requirements to the standards being developed, the types of standards, and the principles to adhere to are discussed. The study is based on the documents adopted within the subcommittee 27 “IT Security techniques” of the joint technical committee ISO/IEC JTC 1 “Information technology”.     

“Those found responsible have been sacked”: some observations on the usefulness of error

Erik Hollnagel’s body of work in the past three decades has molded much of the current research approach to system safety, particularly notions of “error”. Hollnagel regards “error” as a dead-end and avoids using the term. This position is consistent with Rasmussen’s claim that there is no scientifically stable category of human performance that can be described as “error”. While this systems view is undoubtedly correct, “error” persists. Organizations, especially formal business, political, and regulatory structures, use “error” as if it were a stable category of human performance. They apply the term to performances associated with undesired outcomes, tabulate occurrences of “error”, and justify control and sanctions through “error”. Although a compelling argument can be made for Hollnagel’s view, it is clear that notions of “error” are socially and organizationally productive. The persistence of “error” in management and regulatory circles reflects its value as a means for social control.     

Registered e-mail (REM) — Reliable e-mail for everybody

The need for REM: For many years now the market felt the need for a registered and reliable e-mail, suitable to provide evidence just like the paper registered mail. Several implementations have been set up to this purpose: Incamail (Switzerland), Posta Elettronica Certificata — PEC (Italy), Euronot@ries’ MAILWITNESS, De-Mail (Germany), etc. Within the EU project “Pan-European Public Procurement Online” — PEPPOL — its Work Project (WP8) is developing a “secure and reliable transport of electronic business documents”.     

Lemma and cut strategies for propositional model elimination

This paper describes new “lemma” and “cut” strategies that are efficient to apply in the setting of propositional Model Elimination. Previous strategies for managing lemmas and C-literals in Model Elimination were oriented toward first-order theorem proving. The original “cumulative” strategy remembers lemmas forever, and was found to be too inefficient. The previously reported C-literal and unit-lemma strategies, such as “strong regularity”, forget them unnecessarily soon in the propositional domain. An intermediate strategy, called “quasi-persistent” lemmas, is introduced. Supplementing this strategy, methods for “eager” lemmas and two forms of controlled “cut” provide further efficiencies. The techniques have been incorporated into “Modoc”, which is an implementation of Model Elimination, extended with a new pruning method that is designed to eliminate certain refutation attempts that cannot succeed. Experimental data show that on random 3CNF formulas at the “hard” ratio of 4.27 clauses per variable, Modoc is not as effective as recently reported model-searching methods. However, on more structured formulas from applications, such as circuit-fault detection, it is superior. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A new perspective on data homogeneity in software cost estimation: a study in the embedded systems domain

Cost estimation and effort allocation are the key challenges for successful project planning and management in software development. Therefore, both industry and the research community have been working on various models and techniques to accurately predict the cost of projects. Recently, researchers have started debating whether the prediction performance depends on the structure of data rather than the models used. In this article, we focus on a new aspect of data homogeneity, “cross- versus within-application domain”, and investigate what kind of training data should be used for software cost estimation in the embedded systems domain. In addition, we try to find out the effect of training dataset size on the prediction performance. Based on our empirical results, we conclude that it is better to use cross-domain data for embedded software cost estimation and the optimum training data size depends on the method used.     

Designing service systems by bridging the “front stage” and “back stage”

Service management and design has largely focused on the interactions between employees and customers. This perspective holds that the quality of the “service experience” is primarily determined during this final “service encounter” that takes place in the “front stage.” This emphasis discounts the contribution of the activities in the “back stage” of the service value chain where materials or information needed by the front stage are processed. However, the vast increase in web-driven consumer self-service applications and other automated services requires new thinking about service design and service quality. It is essential to consider the entire network of services that comprise the back and front stages as complementary parts of a “service system.” We need new concepts and methods in service design that recognize how back stage information and processes can improve the front stage experience. This paper envisions a methodology for designing service systems that synthesizes (front-stage-oriented) user-centered design techniques with (back stage) methods for designing information-intensive applications.     

The word problem for visibly pushdown languages described by grammars

Visibly pushdown languages are an interesting subclass of deterministic context-free languages that can model nonregular properties of interest in program analysis. Such class properly contains typical classes of parenthesized languages such as “parenthesis”, “bracketed”, “balanced” and “input-driven” languages. It is closed under boolean operations and has decidable decision problems such as emptiness, inclusion and universality. We study the membership problem for visibly pushdown languages, and show that it can be solved in time linear in both the size of the input grammar and the length of the input word. The algorithm relies on a reduction to the reachability problem for game graphs. We also discuss the time complexity of the membership problem for the class of balanced languages which is the largest among those cited above. Besides the intrinsic theoretical interest, we further motivate our main result showing an application to the validation of XML documents against Schema and Document Type Definitions (DTDs). Work partially supported by funds for the research from MIUR 2006, grant “Metodi Formali per la verifica di sistemi chiusi ed aperti”, Università di Salerno. A preliminary version of this paper was published in the Proceedings of the 4th International Symposium Automated Technology for Verification and Analysis (ATVA 2006), Lecture Notes in Computer Science 4218, pp. 96–109, 2006.     

Redesigning business processes: a methodology based on simulation and process mining techniques

Nowadays, organizations have to adjust their business processes along with the changing environment in order to maintain a competitive advantage. Changing a part of the system to support the business process implies changing the entire system, which leads to complex redesign activities. In this paper, a bottom-up process mining and simulation-based methodology is proposed to be employed in redesign activities. The methodology starts with identifying relevant performance issues, which are used as basis for redesign. A process model is “mined” and simulated as a representation of the existing situation, followed by the simulation of the redesigned process model as prediction of the future scenario. Finally, the performance criteria of the current business process model and the redesigned business process model are compared such that the potential performance gains of the redesign can be predicted. We illustrate the methodology with three case studies from three different domains: gas industry, government institution and agriculture.     

Improving information systems students’ teamwork and project management capabilities: Experiences from an innovative classroom

This paper describes an innovative teaching project that was developed and implemented to help MIS students improve their systems development “soft skills” in areas such as teamwork, group development, and project management. The project focused on improving students’ understanding of Systems Analysis and Design (SA&D) concepts by training and assigning students in an advanced SA&D course as formal team leaders and project managers for student groups in the introductory SA&D course. Students used CASE and Project Management tools to understand and apply course concepts. Faculty and students used e-mail facilities and interactive World Wide Web pages to facilitate both personal and broadcast communication among the multiple participants. This approach was used in two different semesters, with insights from the first implementation serving as the basis for improvements in the classroom activities the second time. Results suggest the pedagogical approach has significant conceptual value, but major logistical and operational problems must be overcome for successful implementation. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Organizing the Web's Information Explosion to Discover Unknown Unknowns

This paper introduces the TORISHIKI-KAI project, which aims to construct a million-word-scale semantic network from the Web using state of the art knowledge acquisition methods. The resulting network can be browsed as a Web search directory, and we show that the directory is useful for finding “unknown unknowns” — in the infamous words of D.H. Rumsfeld: things “we don't know we don't know.” Because typically we have no way to look for information we don't even know is missing, a crucial characteristic of unknown unknowns is that they are very difficult to discover through keyword-based Web search. Some examples of the unknown unknowns we have found include unexpected troubles associated with commercial products, surprising new combinations of ingredients in new recipes, unexpected tools or methods for commiting suicide, and so on. We expect such information to be useful for risk management, innovation support, and the detection of harmful information on the Web.     

Video scene retrieval with interactive genetic algorithm

This paper proposes a video scene retrieval algorithm based on emotion. First, abrupt/gradual shot boundaries are detected in the video clip of representing a specific story. Then, five video features such as “average color histogram,” “average brightness,” “average edge histogram,” “average shot duration,” and “gradual change rate” are extracted from each of the videos, and mapping through an interactive genetic algorithm is conducted between these features and the emotional space that a user has in mind. After the proposed algorithm selects the videos that contain the corresponding emotion from the initial population of videos, the feature vectors from them are regarded as chromosomes, and a genetic crossover is applied to those feature vectors. Next, new chromosomes after crossover and feature vectors in the database videos are compared based on a similarity function to obtain the most similar videos as solutions of the next generation. By iterating this process, a new population of videos that a user has in mind are retrieved. In order to show the validity of the proposed method, six example categories of “action,” “excitement,” “suspense,” “quietness,” “relaxation,” and “happiness” are used as emotions for experiments. This method of retrieval shows 70% of effectiveness on the average over 300 commercial videos.

MDA Tool Components: a proposal for packaging know-how in model driven development

As the Model Driven Development (MDD) and Product Line Engineering (PLE) appear as major trends for reducing software development complexity and costs, an important missing stone becomes more visible: there is no standard and reusable assets for packaging the know-how and artifacts required when applying these approaches. To overcome this limit, we introduce in this paper the notion of MDA Tool Component, i.e., a packaging unit for encapsulating business know-how and required resources in order to support specific modeling activities on a certain kind of model. The aim of this work is to provide a standard way for representing this know-how packaging unit. This is done by introducing a two-layer MOF-compliant metamodel. Whilst the first layer focuses on the definition of the structure and contents of the MDA Tool Component, the second layer introduces a language independent way for describing its behavior. An OMG RFP (Request For Proposal) has been issued in order to standardize this approach. This work is supported in part by the IST European project “MODELWARE” (contract no 511731) and extends the work presented in the paper entitled “MDA Components: A Flexible Way for Implementing the MDA Approach” edited in proceedings of the ECMDA-FA’05 conference.