An analysis of fatal bicycle accidents in Victoria (Australia) with a special reference to nighttime accidents

This paper examines the fatal bicycle accidents which occurred in the period 1981-1984 in Victoria with particular emphasis on nighttime fatalities. The examination provides information on aspects of accident location, environment, problem type, time, and cyclist characteristics. The relationship between actual accidents and cyclists perceived collision danger is also investigated. The characteristics of fatal bicycle accidents are different to those of overall "casualty" accidents. A difference also exists between day and night, and between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan fatal accidents. In the metropolitan area, adult cyclists over 17 years were over-involved in fatal accidents. The proportion of cyclists involved in fatalities at night increases with increase in age. Almost 80% of nighttime accidents occurred on links on arterial roads, and the majority in the high speed limit zones (75 kph and over). A greater proportion of accidents was initiated by cyclists. In 90% of nighttime cyclist fatalities the cyclist was hit from the rear, compared with 40% in daytime. Inadequacy of bicycle and street lighting was found to be an important factor in nighttime fatalities.     

Validity of surrogate measures of alcohol involvement when applied to nonfatal crashes

Since the 1970s, nighttime fatal crashes have been used as a surrogate measure for alcohol-related fatalities for crashes for which more direct measures were absent. The validity of this approach was confirmed in 1985 but has not been re-evaluated since. Although this measure has also been applied to identify alcohol involvement in nonfatal crashes, its validity when applied to nonfatal cases has never been determined.The objective of this study was to evaluate the appropriateness of using nighttime crashes as surrogate measures for alcohol impairment when applied to fatal and nonfatal injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes. To do so, we used data from a crash-control design study collected at the roadside in two U.S. states between 1997 and 1999, as well as from the 1997-1999 and 2004-2006 Fatality Analysis Reporting System.The outcome of this study confirms the validity of using nighttime crashes as a surrogate measure for alcohol-related fatalities and supports the use of after-midnight crashes for measuring alcohol involvement in nonfatal and PDO crashes when the number of late-night crashes permits.     

Drinking and driving by young females

Recent research indicates that women are drinking and driving more often and that the proportion of female drivers involved in fatal crashes is increasing. U.S. Fatal Accident Reporting System data (Fell 1987) suggest that although overall alcohol involvement rates in fatal crashes have been declining for the past four years, the rates for females aged 21-24 have not, and their alcohol involvement rate in late-night single vehicle (SV) crashes, a surrogate measure of alcohol-related (A/R) crashes, is almost as high as that of male drivers. This paper examines the involvement of North Carolina (NC) female drivers who are less than 35 years of age for the period of 1976 through 1985 and reports on trends in driver licensing, arrests for drinking and driving, SV nighttime and A/R crashes, and measured blood alcohol levels in fatalities. It identifies an emerging driving-while-impaired (DWI) problem for younger women, particularly those 21 to 24 years of age. Significant trends pertaining to the involvement of women will have implications for the design and implementation of educational, deterrence, enforcement, and rehabilitation programs.     

The relationship between alcoholrelated traffic fatalities and per capita consumption of alcohol, Ontario, 1957–1983

In this research, the impact of per capita consumption of alcohol on alcohol-related traffic fatalities in Ontario between 1957 and 1983 was examined. Three measures of alcohol involvement were selected. The first, drinking drivers (police reported) involved in fatal accidents, was a direct measure. The second and third, single-vehicle fatal accidents and nighttime fatal accidents, were surrogate measures. Also, three corresponding measures of fatal accidents not involving alcohol (normal drivers [police reported] involved in fatal accidents, multiple vehicle fatal accidents, and daytime fatal accidents) were chosen to control for general road safety trends. The results of regression analyses indicated that both per capita consumption and general road safety trends were significant contributors to all three measures of alcohol-involved fatalities. These and other recent data suggest that any effort to prevent alcohol-related problems such as liver cirrhosis through control of per capita consumption will also have a beneficial impact on alcohol-related accidents.     

Factors associated with hit-and-run pedestrian fatalities and driver identification

As hit-and-run crashes account for a significant proportion of pedestrian fatalities, a better understanding of these crash types will assist efforts to reduce these fatalities. Of the more than 48,000 pedestrian deaths that were recorded in the United States between 1998 and 2007, 18.1% of them were caused by hit-and-run drivers. Using national data on single pedestrian-motor vehicle fatal crashes (1998–2007), logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify factors related to hit-and-run and to identify factors related to the identification of the hit-and-run driver. Results indicate an increased risk of hit-and-run in the early morning, poor light conditions, and on the weekend. There may also be an association between the type of victim and the likelihood of the driver leaving and being identified. Results also indicate that certain driver characteristics, behavior, and driving history are associated with hit-and-run. Alcohol use and invalid license were among the leading driver factor associated with an increased risk of hit-and-run. Prevention efforts that address such issues could substantially reduce pedestrian fatalities as a result of hit-and-run. However, more information about this driver population may be necessary.     

Mathematical models assuming selective recruitment fitted to data for driver mortality and seat belt use in Japan

Previous research has indicated that unbelted drivers are at higher risk of involvement in fatal crashes than belted drivers, suggesting selective recruitment that high-risk drivers are unlikely to become belt users. However, how the risk of involvement in fatal crashes among unbelted drivers varies according to the level of seat belt use among general drivers has yet to be clearly quantified. We, therefore, developed mathematical models describing the risk of fatal crashes in relation to seat belt use among the general public, and explored how these models fitted to changes in driver mortality and changes in observed seat belt use using Japanese data. Mortality data between 1979 and 1994 were obtained from vital statistics, and mortality data in the daytime and nighttime between 1980 and 2001 and belt use data between 1979 and 2001 were obtained from the National Police Agency. Regardless of the data set analyzed, exponential models, assuming that high-risk drivers would gradually become belt users in order of increasing risk as seat belt use among general motorists reached high levels, showed the best fit. Our models provide an insight into behavioral changes among high-risk drivers and support the selective recruitment hypothesis.     

Characteristics of crashes attributed to the driver having fallen asleep

While it has been known for some time that crashes can result from the driver falling asleep at the wheel, this issue has received less attention in traffic safety programs than the role of alcohol or speed of the vehicle. The present study was done to investigate the characteristics of crashes attributed to the driver being asleep. The study utilized the database at the Highway Safety Research Center at the University of North Carolina that is based on the uniform crash reporting system in that state. Over the years 1990–1992, inclusive, there were 4333 crashes in which the driver was judged to be asleep but not intoxicated. The crashes were primarily of the drive-off-the-road type (78% of the total) and took place at higher speeds (62% in excess of 50 mph). The fatality rate was of similar magnitude to that in alcohol-related crashes with fatalities in 1.4% of such crashes (alcohol crashes had fatalities in 2.1%). The crashes occurred primarily at two times of day—during the nighttime period of increased sleepiness (midnight to 7.00 a.m.) and during the mid-afternoon “siesta” time of increased sleepiness (3.00 p.m.). These crashes occurred predominately in young people. Fifty-five percent of these were in individuals 25 years of age or younger, with a peak age of occurrence at age 20 years. Sleepiness may play a role in crashes other than those attributed by the police to the driver being asleep. Determining the magnitude of this role is a challenge to the traffic safety community.     

Identification of differences between rural and urban safety cultures

The prevailing risk of traffic fatalities is much larger in rural areas compared to urban areas. A number of explanations have been offered to explain this including road design, emergency medical service proximity, and human factors. This research explored the potential contribution of rural driver attitudes that may underlie the increased fatal crash risk in rural environments. This analysis examined differences between rural and urban drivers in terms of self-reported risk taking for driving behaviors associated with fatal crashes and attitudes toward safety interventions using a large-scale survey. The results suggested that rural drivers engage in riskier behavior, such as not wearing seatbelts, because they have lower perceptions of the risks associated with such behaviors. Results also suggested that vehicle type (e.g., pickup trucks versus passenger vehicles) may be related to seatbelt compliance and frequency of driving under the influence of alcohol. Rural drivers perceived the utility of government-sponsored traffic safety interventions to be lower than their urban counterparts. This study provides insights into the role of the human factor in rural fatal crashes and provides policy suggestions for developing safety interventions that are designed with respect to the psychosocial factors that define the rural culture.     

Prevalence and characteristics of red light running crashes in the United States

About 40% of motor vehicle crashes occur at intersections. In recent years, the number of crashes at traffic signals has increased considerably. A major cause of such crashes is drivers disregarding traffic signals. Despite concerns about the frequent occurrence of red light violations and the significant crash consequences, relatively little is known about the overall prevalence and characteristics of red light running crashes. The present study examines the prevalence of red light running crashes on a national basis and identifies the characteristics of such crashes and the drivers involved. Cities with especially high rates of fatal red light running crashes are identified. Countermeasures to reduce red light running crashes based on collision patterns and characteristics of drivers involved are discussed. It was estimated that about 260 000 red light running crashes occur annually in the United States, of which approximately 750 result in fatalities. Comparisons were made between red light running drivers and drivers deemed not to have run red lights in these same crashes. As a group, red light runners were more likely than other drivers to be younger than age 30, male, have prior moving violations and convictions for driving while intoxicated, have invalid driver’s licenses, and have consumed alcohol prior to the crash. Comparisons also were made between characteristics of red light runners involved in daytime and nighttime crashes. Nighttime red light runners were more likely than daytime runners to be young, male, and have more deviant characteristics, 53% having high blood alcohol concentrations.     

Safety Performance Indicator for alcohol in road accidents—International comparison, validity and data quality

Safety Performance Indicators, SPIs, are developed for various areas within road safety such as speed, car occupant protection, alcohol and drugs, vehicle safety, etc. SPIs can be used to indicate the road safety situation and to compare road safety performance between countries and over time and to understand the process leading to accidents, helping to select the measures to reduce them. This article describes an alcohol SPI defined as the percentage of fatalities resulting from accidents involving at least one driver impaired by alcohol. The calculation of the alcohol SPI for 26 European countries shows that the SPI varies from 4.4% in Bulgaria to 72.2% in Italy. These results raise the question if the results reflect the real situation or if there is a methodological explanation. To answer this question three different studies were carried out: comparison with other alcohol SPIs, in-depth studies of data quality in seven selected countries, and a study of correlations between the SPI and influencing factors.These studies indicate clearly that there is a need to improve quality of the data used for the alcohol SPI. Most importantly, the total number of drivers involved in fatal accidents, the number tested for alcohol and the number not tested, should be reported, in addition to the number of alcohol positive and negative drivers among those tested. Until these improvements are made, the validity of this SPI seems poor and comparison of the alcohol SPI results across countries should be made with caution.     

Graduated driver license nighttime compliance in U.S. teen drivers involved in fatal motor vehicle crashes

Background

Examination of teen driver compliance with graduated driver licensing (GDL) laws could be instrumental in identifying factors associated with persistently high motor vehicle mortality rates.

Methods

Fatality analysis reporting system (FARS) data from the years 2006 to 2009 were used in this nation-wide cross-sectional study of drivers covered by a state nighttime GDL law (n = 3492). A new definition of weekend, based on the school night in relation to the teenage social landscape, redefined Friday night as a weekend night and Sunday night as a weekday/school night and compared it to previous weekend definitions. Multiple logistic regression was used to examine independent effects of demographic, behavioral, environmental, contextual, and other factors on compliance with nighttime GDL laws. All analyses were performed in Stata version 11.

Results

Given coverage under nighttime GDL laws, drivers aged 15–17 years were non-compliant in 14.9% of the fatal MVCs in which they were involved, and nearly one-fifth (18.8%) of all fatalities aged 15–17 years were associated with non-compliance. Mortality risk was 10% higher using a revised social (school night) versus traditional (Sat–Sun) weekend definitions. In multivariable analysis, drivers non-compliant with nighttime GDL laws were more likely to be drinking (OR = 4.97, 3.85–6.40), unbelted (OR = 1.58, 1.25–1.99), driving on the weekend (OR = 1.82, 1.47–2.24), and killed (OR = 1.31, 1.04–1.65).

Conclusion

GDL non-compliance contributes to teen motor vehicle mortality. Legislative and enforcement efforts targeting non-school night driving, seatbelt nonuse and alcohol have potential to further reduce teen driving mortality.     

Predicting seat belt use in fatal motor vehicle crashes from observation surveys of belt use

There is a large difference between the rates of observed seat belt use by the general public and belt use by motor vehicle occupants who are fatally injured in crashes. Seat belt use rates of fatally injured occupants, as reported in the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), are much lower than the use rates found in observation surveys conducted by the states. A series of mathematical models describing the empirical relationship between FARS and observed rates were explored. The initial model was a 'straw man' and used two simplifying assumptions: (a) belt users and nonusers are equally likely to be involved in 'potentially fatal collisions', and (b) belts are 45% effective in preventing deaths. The model was examined by comparing each state's FARS use rate with the predicted rate. The model did not fit the state data points even when possible biases in the data were controlled. We next examined the assumptions in the model. Changing the seat belt effectiveness parameter provided a reasonable fit, but required an assumption that seat belts are 67% effective in preventing fatalities. The inclusion of a risk coefficient for non-belted occupants also provided a reasonable fit between the model and data. A variable risk model produced the best fit with the data. The major finding was that a model consistent with the data can be obtained by incorporating the assumption that nonusers of seat belts have a higher risk of involvement in potentially fatal collisions than do seat belt users. It was concluded that unbelted occupants are over-represented in fatal collisions for two reasons: (a) because of a greater chance of involvement in potentially fatal collisions in the first place, and (b) because they are not afforded the protection of seat belts when a collision does occur.     

Examining driver injury severity outcomes in rural non-interstate roadway crashes using a hierarchical ordered logit model

Rural non-interstate crashes induce a significant amount of severe injuries and fatalities. Examination of such injury patterns and the associated contributing factors is of practical importance. Taking into account the ordinal nature of injury severity levels and the hierarchical feature of crash data, this study employs a hierarchical ordered logit model to examine the significant factors in predicting driver injury severities in rural non-interstate crashes based on two-year New Mexico crash records. Bayesian inference is utilized in model estimation procedure and 95% Bayesian Credible Interval (BCI) is applied to testing variable significance. An ordinary ordered logit model omitting the between-crash variance effect is evaluated as well for model performance comparison. Results indicate that the model employed in this study outperforms ordinary ordered logit model in model fit and parameter estimation. Variables regarding crash features, environment conditions, and driver and vehicle characteristics are found to have significant influence on the predictions of driver injury severities in rural non-interstate crashes. Factors such as road segments far from intersection, wet road surface condition, collision with animals, heavy vehicle drivers, male drivers and driver seatbelt used tend to induce less severe driver injury outcomes than the factors such as multiple-vehicle crashes, severe vehicle damage in a crash, motorcyclists, females, senior drivers, driver with alcohol or drug impairment, and other major collision types. Research limitations regarding crash data and model assumptions are also discussed. Overall, this research provides reasonable results and insight in developing effective road safety measures for crash injury severity reduction and prevention.     

The influence of alcohol, age and number of passengers on the night-time risk of driver fatal injury in New Zealand

Breath alcohol measurements and other data collected at randomly selected roadside sites were combined with data on fatally injured drivers in crashes occurring on the same weekdays and times (Friday and Saturday nights) at locations matched by the size of the nearest town. A logistic model was fitted to these data for the years 1995-2000 to estimate the effects of alcohol, driver's age and the influence of passengers carried on the risk of driver fatal injury in New Zealand. The estimated risks increased steeply with increasing blood alcohol concentration (BAC), closely following an exponential curve at levels below about 200mg/dl (i.e. 0.2%) and increasing less than exponentially thereon. The model fitted to data for drivers under 200mg/dl showed that risks at all BAC levels were statistically significantly higher for drivers aged under 20 (over five times) and for drivers aged 20-29 (three times) than for drivers aged 30 and over. Further, controlling for age and BAC level, driving with a single passenger was associated with approximately half the night-time risk of driver fatal injury relative to driving either solo or with two or more passengers. According to a recent travel survey, the types of passengers carried at the times of night and days of week studied appear to differ significantly from the types of passengers carried generally, which may lead to different passenger effects on driver behaviour. The high relative risk of teenage drivers means that they reach high risk levels commonly regarded as unacceptable in the field of road safety even at their current legal limit of 30mg/dl, particularly when more than one passenger is carried in the car.     

Active transportation: Do current traffic safety policies protect non-motorists?

Objective

This study investigated the impact that state traffic safety regulations have on non-motorist fatality rates.

Methods

Data obtained from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), and the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) were analyzed through a pooled time series cross-sectional model using fixed effects regression for all 50 states from 1999 to 2009. Two dependent variables were used in separate models measuring annual state non-motorist fatalities per million population, and the natural log of state non-motorist fatalities. Independent variables measuring traffic policies included state expenditures for highway law enforcement and safety per capita; driver cell phone use regulations; graduated driver license regulations; driver blood alcohol concentration regulations; bike helmet regulations; and seat belt regulations. Other control variables included percent of all vehicle miles driven that are urban and mean per capita alcohol consumption per year.

Results

Non-motorist traffic safety was positively impacted by state highway law enforcement and safety expenditures per capita, with a decrease in non-motorist fatalities occurring with increased spending. Per capita consumption of alcohol also influenced non-motorist fatalities, with higher non-motorist fatalities occurring with higher per capita consumption of alcohol. Other traffic safety covariates did not appear to have a significant impact on non-motorist fatality rates in the models.

Conclusion

Our research suggests that increased expenditures on state highway and traffic safety and the initiation/expansion of programs targeted at curbing both driver and non-motorist intoxication are a starting point for the implementation of traffic safety policies that reduce risks for non-motorists.     

Serious or fatal driver injury rate versus car mass in head-on crashes between cars of similar mass

This work was performed to determine relations between car mass and driver injuries (serious or fatal) when cars of similar mass crash into each other head-on. This type of crash is examined because it is considered similar in some respects to a barrier crash. Data from the United States Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) are used to examine driver fatality likelihood as a function of car mass when cars of similar mass crash into each other. Pedestrian fatalities involving cars of the same mass are used to estimate exposure. Two additional sources of data (State data from North Carolina and New York) are used to generate information on the number of drivers seriously injured or killed per police reported crash when cars of similar mass crash into each other. The present study finds that the likelihood of driver injury (fatal or serious) when cars of similar mass crash into each other increases with decreasing car mass, both for head-on crashes and for crashes in all directions. The study does not address possible mechanisms that might lead to such relations. All the data analyzed reveal a fairly consistent picture--a driver in a 900 kg car crashing head-on into another 900 kg car is about 2.0 times as likely to be seriously injured or killed as is a driver of a 1800 kg car crashing head-on into another 1800 kg car.     

Relative fatality risk in different seating positions versus car model year

Fatality risk of drivers compared to right-front passengers is examined vs. car model year (MY) using Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) data for 1975 through 1986. Confounding effects are removed by comparing unrestrained occupants matched in sex and age (to within three years). MY ≥ 1968 cars, which complied with Federal Motor Vehicle Standard 203 (impact protection for the driver) and FMVSS 204 (rearward column displacement), are compared to MY ≤ 1966 cars, which did not comply with these standards. It is found that, compared to right-front passengers in the same cars, drivers had higher relative fatality risks in MY ≥ 1968 cars and lower relative fatality risks in MY ≤ 1966 cars. Because there are so few fatal frontal crash data for MY 1966 and MY 1968 cars, definitive conclusions regarding the effectiveness of FMVSS 203 and 204 in reducing driver fatalities are not possible. However, our analysis, together with the assumption that right-front-passenger fatality risk was the same in 1966 and 1968 MY cars, does suggest that a previous 12% effectiveness estimate is more likely to be high than low.     

Car size and injury risk: a model for injury risk in frontal collisions.

Empirical studies have established that when pairs of similar cars collide, the relative injury risk between pairs of different size is inversely related to their mass ratio. Further empirical studies have shown that in frontal collisions between dissimilar cars, relative injury risk is inversely proportional to mass ratio raised to the power of n. The value of the exponent n increases with impact speed, with n approximately 1 at low speeds and n ranging from 2.81 to 3.74 for fatalities. In this paper a theory is derived which explains relative injury risk in terms of three parameters: length (or size) ratio, mass ratio and the ratio of collision energy absorption between the colliding vehicles. It is proposed that the ratio of collision energy absorption between colliding vehicles is a function of the structural collapse forces imposed at maximum dynamic crush. The theory shows that the fundamental factor in collisions between pairs of similar cars is size, i.e. length. For collisions between two dissimilar cars, Monte-Carlo simulations using generalised characterisations for the car population yield theoretical predictions that match empirical findings ranging from minor injuries (AISI +) to fatal (AIS6) injuries.     

An assessment of the effect of driver age on traffic accident involvement using log-linear models

Statistical models were developed to help understand the relationship between the driver age and several important accident-related factors and circumstances such as injury severity, collision types, average daily traffic (ADT), roadway character, speed ratio, alcohol involvement, and accident location. By using techniques of categorical analysis on the 1994 and 1995 Florida accident database, four log-linear models with three variables in each model with all possible two-way interactions were developed. In order to compare the differences in response between the age groups and a particular accident-related variable, odds multipliers were computed. The effects of age and accident-related factors were examined, and interactions among them were considered. The results indicated significant relationships between the driver age and ADT, injury severity, manner of collision, speed, alcohol involvement, and roadway character. The findings' contribution to the understanding of the effect of age on accident involvement is addressed. A discussion of how log-linear and logit modeling with estimation of `odds multipliers' may contribute to traffic safety studies is also provided.     

The strength of graduated drivers license programs and fatalities among teen drivers and passengers

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of differentially stringent graduated drivers license programs on teen driver fatalities, day-time and night-time teen driver fatalities, fatalities of teen drivers with passengers present, and fatalities among teen passengers. METHODS: The study uses 1992-2002 data on motor vehicle fatalities among 15-17-year-old drivers from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System to identify the effects of "good", "fair", and "marginal" GDL programs based upon designations by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Analysis is conducted using conditional negative binomial regressions with fixed effects. RESULTS: "Good" programs reduce total fatalities among young drivers by 19.4% (c.i. -33.0%, -5.9%). "Fair" programs reduce night-time young driver fatalities by 12.6% (c.i. -23.9%, -1.2%), but have no effect on day-time fatalities. "Marginal" programs had no statistically meaningful effect on driver fatalities. All three types of programs reduced teen passenger fatalities, but the effects of limitations on the number of passengers appear to have had only minimal effects in reducing fatalities among young drivers themselves. CONCLUSIONS: Stronger GDL programs are more effective than weaker programs in reducing teenage motor vehicle fatalities.