“Hits” (not “Discussion Posts”) predict student success in online courses: A double cross-validation study

The efficacy of individual components of an online course on positive course outcome was examined via stepwise multiple regression analysis. Outcome was measured as the student’s total score on all exams given during the course. The predictors were page hits, discussion posts, and discussion reads. The vast majority of the variance of outcome was accounted for by total page hits. Participation in discussion had little to no effect on performance as measured by outcome on exams. The results were double cross-validated with a sample chosen from another class. There was no shrinkage, indicating that the equations derived from the two samples were very reliable.     

Visualizing “typical” and “exotic” Internet traffic data

The threat of cyber attacks motivates the need to monitor Internet traffic data for potentially abnormal behavior. Due to the enormous volumes of such data, statistical process monitoring tools, such as those traditionally used on data in the product manufacturing arena, are inadequate. “Exotic” data may indicate a potential attack; detecting such data requires a characterization of “typical” data. We devise some new graphical displays, including a “skyline plot,” that permit ready visual identification of unusual Internet traffic patterns in “streaming” data, and use appropriate statistical measures to help identify potential cyberattacks. These methods are illustrated on a moderate-sized data set (135,605 records) collected at George Mason University.     

A correction to “Nonmonotonic inconsistency” [Artificial Intelligence 149 (2003) 161–178]

This note corrects an error in the statement and proof of Propositions 9 and 10 of [C. Cross, Nonmonotonic inconsistency, Artificial Intelligence 149 (2) (2003) 161–178]. Both results turn out to depend on the postulate of Consistency Preservation.     

Property evaluation in The Expert System for Thermodynamics (“TEST”) web application

Ever since its release, TEST has found use as thermodynamic courseware in many universities around the world. TEST offers web-based analysis tools–java applets called daemons–for property evaluation of working substances, energy, entropy, and exergy analysis of generic open and closed systems, IC engines, gas and vapor power cycles, refrigeration, HVAC, combustion, chemical equilibrium, and gas dynamics. Other modules of TEST include animations, problems, examples, and system navigations that are closely integrated with the daemon module to create a comprehensive analysis tool for engineering thermodynamics. In this paper the methodology of thermodynamic state evaluation by TEST is discussed with several examples.     

Corrigendum to “Exponential state estimation for recurrent neural networks with distributed delays” [Neurocomputing 71(1–3) (2007) 428–438]

In the letter [Neurocomputing 71(1–3) (2007) 428–438], there exists one minor error in computing the derivative of V₂((t)) and thus, the proof of Theorem 1 needs some improvement.     

Analysis of “Salary man” motivation and the will to work (YARUKI)

The Inner Graphic Formula Method (IGF) which was originally conceived by Professor Ishiketa and further developed by him and his associates was used to investigate the motivation of new company employees.

Japanese companies traditionally recruit new employees from senior classes and notify successful candidates of their intention to employ them around the first of January. Since graduation is in March, April first is, then, the first day of work for almost all of these graduates in their new companies.

The investigation period for this study covers the eleven months from January until the middle of November, and therefore includes the three month period after notification but prior to actual work, from January first until March thirty-first, and the first eight month of actual work, from April first to the middle of November. The subjects fell, naturally, into two groups; a “Blue Collar” group and a “White Collar” group.

This paper deals with the motivation of these newly employed workers in general and, specifically, with the difference in motivational tendencies between “Blue Collar” and “White Collar” workers. As expected analysis showed that clear motivational differences appeared.

Motivation in the white collar workers tended to raise after an initial downturn, while a general downward trend was detected for the blue collar workers. White collar worker's attitudes toward themselves and toward their work seemed to change for the better as a result of having the chance to become introspective while plotting the graph and writing the anecdotal responses needed to complete the investigative sheet for this study.     

“Paraprogramming” manufacturing information systems

Computer integrated manufacturing (CIM) is creating unexpected problems for a growing number of manufacturing companies. Manufacturers are finding it especially difficult to attract programmers who are both willing and able to develop the highly complex software that integrates existing accounting, sales, production, engineering, and quality control information subsystems. Consequently, many companies abdicate their responsibility for manufacturing information systems and seek third party support ranging from consulting assistance to a total takeover of the company's information resources and operations. Companies that “give away” their internal information system capabilities to third parties will ultimately lose control of their enterprise information, a danger to be avoided. Off-the-shelf software for desktop computers has become sufficiently powerful to help solve a major portion of this serious problem. We hypothesize that manufacturing engineers (and others) can be trained to use packaged software to leverage their company's systems programming capabilities. In effect they would become “paraprogrammers” who would help design, develop, and maintain manufacturing information systems. This new type of professional would not require a computer science or similar educational background, but could be trained to satisfy many specialized programming needs in a manner similar to how paramedics and paralegals are trained and used in the medical and legal professions, respectively. This paper reports on the early stages of research to determine whether or not product design engineers can use a desktop relational database management system and its various command languages to develop a master bill of material information system (BOMIS). The purpose of the research is to evaluate the amount of programming complexity reduction and increased operational effectiveness that can be achieved through paraprogramming by manufacturing engineers.     

Modelling rhetorical legal “logic”—a double syllogism

This paper looks at legal reasoning from the point of view of the work of the lawyer, rather than the law itself. In the case of Common Law systems, this means a more flexible view of how tasks are divided between the humans and the computer system, with an emphasis on decision support rather than complete automation. A process-based model of the lawyer's work is proposed in the form of a double syllogism, which displays an aesthetically pleasing symmetry, but also a significant asymmetry in the role played by perceived precedents. This arises from the use of inductive, rather than deductive, reasoning. The potential complications arising from the issue of the perception of precedents are discussed in depth.The double-syllogism model is then considered in the light of CommonKADS terminology and models. It is suggested that decision support systems using knowledge-based techniques, as required to support lawyers working under Common Law jurisdiction, raise a stronger form of the interaction problem that is well known in knowledge-based systems. This means that such systems are not well catered for in the existing CommonKADS Organisational, Agent, Task and Communication Models. The double-syllogism model is suggested as a supplement to CommonKADS in the development of such systems, at least until a more generic addition is available.