Managing project risk using combined analytic hierarchy process and risk map

The main purpose of the study is to develop an integrated framework for managing project risks by analyzing risk across project, work package and activity levels, and developing responses.Design/methodology/approachThe study first reviews the literature of various contemporary risk management frameworks in order to identify gaps in project risk management knowledge. Then it develops a conceptual risk management framework using combined analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and risk map for managing project risks. The proposed framework has then been applied to a 1500 km oil pipeline construction project in India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. The concerned project stakeholders were involved through focus group discussions for applying the proposed risk management framework in the project under study.FindingsThe combined AHP and risk map approach is very effective to manage project risks across project, work package and activity levels. The risk factors in project level are caused because of external forces such as business environment (e.g. customers, competitors, technological development, politics, socio-economic environment). The risk factors in work package and activity levels are operational in nature and created due to internal causes such as lack of material and labor productivity, implementation issues, team ineffectiveness, etc.Practical implicationsThe suggested model can be applied to any complex project and helps manage risk throughout the project life cycle.Originality/valueBoth business and operational risks constitute project risks. In one hand, the conventional project risk management frameworks emphasize on managing business risks and often ignore operational risks. On the other hand, the studies that deal with operational risk often do not link them with business risks. However, they need to be addressed in an integrated way as there are a few risks that affect only the specific level. Hence, this study bridges the gaps.     

Categorization of risk factors for distributed agile projects

ContextOrganizations combine agile approach and Distributed Software Development (DSD) in order to develop better quality software solutions in lesser time and cost. It helps to reap the benefits of both agile and distributed development but pose significant challenges and risks. Relatively scanty evidence of research on the risks prevailing in distributed agile development (DAD) has motivated this study.ObjectiveThis paper aims at creating a comprehensive set of risk factors that affect the performance of distributed agile development projects and identifies the risk management methods which are frequently used in practice for controlling those risks.MethodThe study is an exploration of practitioners’ experience using constant comparison method for analyzing in-depth interviews of thirteen practitioners and work documents of twenty-eight projects from thirteen different information technology (IT) organizations. The field experience was supported by extensive research literature on risk management in traditional, agile and distributed development.ResultsAnalysis of qualitative data from interviews and project work documents resulted into categorization of forty-five DAD risk factors grouped under five core risk categories. The risk categories were mapped to Leavitt’s model of organizational change for facilitating the implementation of results in real world. The risk factors could be attributed to the conflicting properties of DSD and agile development. Besides that, some new risk factors have been experienced by practitioners and need further exploration as their understanding will help the practitioners to act on time.ConclusionOrganizations are adopting DAD for developing solutions that caters to the changing business needs, while utilizing the global talent. Conflicting properties of DSD and agile approach pose several risks for DAD. This study gives a comprehensive categorization of the risks faced by the practitioners in managing DAD projects and presents frequently used methods to reduce their impact. The work fills the yawning research void in this field.     

Offshore Outsourcing: Risks,Challenges, and Potential Solutions

Abstract

While offshore outsourcing is associated with several benefits, these ventures also pose many risks. In this paper, through an in-depth review, we develop a type 1 analysis theory about the various risks involved in offshore outsourcing projects, the challenges faced by managers in these collaboration initiatives, and solutions that may aid in overcoming those challenges. This paper contributes to both the theoretical and practice domains by providing a comprehensive offshoring challenges and solutions framework.     

An approach to discovering risks in development process of large and complex systems

When building a large and complex system, such as satellites, all sorts of risks have to be managed if it were to be successful. For risks in the design of an artifact, various reliability analysis techniques such as FTA or FMEA have been employed in the engineering domain. However, risks exist as well in the development process, and they could result in a failure of the system. In this paper, we present an approach to discovering risks in development process by collecting and organizing information produced during development process at low cost. We describe a prototype system called IDIMS, and show how it can be used to discover risks from e-mail communications between developers. The motivation of our work is to overcome thecapture bottleneck problem, and utilize now wasted information to improve development process. Yoshikiyo Kato: He received his B. Eng. (1998) and M.Eng. (2000) degrees in aeronautics and astronautics from The University of Tokyo. From September 1998 to July 1999, he was an exchange student at Department of Computer Science and Engineering of University of California, San Diego, and worked on software engineering tools. From May 2001 to July 2002, he was a research assistant at National Institute of Informatics (Japan). He is currently a Ph.D. student at Department of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies of the University of Tokyo. His research interests include knowledge management, CSCW, HCI and software engineering He is a member of AAAI and JSAI. Takahiro Shirakawa: He received his B.Eng. (2000) and M.Eng. (2002) degrees in aeronautics and astronautics from the University of Tokyo. He is currently an assistant examiner at Japan Patent Office. Kohei Taketa: He received his B.Eng. (2000) and M.Eng. (2002) degrees in aeronautics and astronautics from the University of Tokyo. He is currently a software engineer at NTT Data Corp. Koichi Hori, Dr.Eng.: He received B.Eng, M.Eng, and Dr.Eng. degrees in electronic engineering from the University of Tokyo, Japan, in 1979, 1981, and 1984, respectively. In 1984, he joined National Institute of Japanese Literature where he developed AI systems for literature studies. Since 1988, he has been with the U University of Tokyo. He is currently a professor with Department of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, The University of Tokyo. From September 1989 to January 1990, he also held a visiting position at University of Compiegne, France. His current research interests include AI technology for supporting human creative activities, cognitive engineering, and Intelligent CAD systems. He is a member of IEEE, ACM, IEICE, IPSJ, JSAI, JSSST and JCSS.     

Short-term and long-term memory analysis of learning using 2D and 3D educational contents

ABSTRACT

The effect of 2D and 3D educational content learning on memory has been studied using electroencephalography (EEG) brain signal. A hypothesis is set that the 3D materials are better than the 2D materials for learning and memory recall. To test the hypothesis, we proposed a classification system that will predict true or false recall for short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM) after learning by either 2D or 3D educational contents. For this purpose, EEG brain signals are recorded during learning and testing; the signals are then analysed in the time domain using different types of features in various frequency bands. The features are then fed into a support vector machine (SVM)-based classifier. The experimental results indicate that the learning and memory recall using 2D and 3D contents do not have significant differences for both the STM and the LTM.     

Intra-rater and inter-rater reliability of the rapid entire body assessment (REBA) tool

BackgroundErgonomics researchers and practitioners use many techniques to assess risk. The Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) is a common tool used to facilitate the measurement and evaluation of the risks associated with working postures as a part of ergonomic workload. However, little work has been reported regarding the reliability of REBA reporting.ObjectiveThis study assesses the reliability of this commonly used tool for research and practice.MethodsThe study was conducted as part of the larger Safe Workload Ergonomic Exposure Project (SWEEP), which is a University of Minnesota research initiative for custodians. For this effort, a secondary data analysis was conducted on data collected during a study of custodians’ exposures to risks of musculoskeletal disorders. Eight observers used the REBA tool to sequentially evaluate tasks performed two times in succession by the same individual.ResultsThis study reports high intra-rater reliability (ICC = 0.925) for REBA raw scores and moderate inter-rater reliability (IRR) (Fleiss kappa = 0.54) for a categorical scoring of REBA.ConclusionA moderate amount of IRR was found, and a standardized training and calibration protocol is proposed as a potential means to improve intra- and inter-rater reliability.     

Risks and risk mitigation in global software development: A tertiary study

ContextThere is extensive interest in global software development (GSD) which has led to a large number of papers reporting on GSD. A number of systematic literature reviews (SLRs) have attempted to aggregate information from individual studies.ObjectiveWe wish to investigate GSD SLR research with a focus on discovering what research has been conducted in the area and to determine if the SLRs furnish appropriate risk and risk mitigation advice to provide guidance to organizations involved with GSD.MethodWe performed a broad automated search to identify GSD SLRs. Data extracted from each study included: (1) authors, their affiliation and publishing venue, (2) SLR quality, (3) research focus, (4) GSD risks, (5) risk mitigation strategies and, (6) for each SLR the number of primary studies reporting each risk and risk mitigation strategy.ResultsWe found a total of 37 papers reporting 24 unique GSD SLR studies. Major GSD topics covered include: (1) organizational environment, (2) project execution, (3) project planning and control and (4) project scope and requirements. We extracted 85 risks and 77 risk mitigation advice items and categorized them under four major headings: outsourcing rationale, software development, human resources, and project management. The largest group of risks was related to project management. GSD outsourcing rationale risks ranked highest in terms of primary study support but in many cases these risks were only identified by a single SLR.ConclusionsThe focus of the GSD SLRs we identified is mapping the research rather than providing evidence-based guidance to industry. Empirical support for the majority of risks identified is moderate to low, both in terms of the number of SLRs identifying the risk, and in the number of primary studies providing empirical support. Risk mitigation advice is also limited, and empirical support for these items is low.     

An empirical study on the implementation and evaluation of a goal-driven software development risk management model

ContextBuilding a quality software product in the shortest possible time to satisfy the global market demand gives an enterprise a competitive advantage. However, uncertainties and risks exist at every stage of a software development project. These can have an extremely high influence on the success of the final software product. Early risk management practice is effective to manage such risks and contributes effectively towards the project success.ObjectiveDespite risk management approaches, a detailed guideline that explains where to integrate risk management activities into the project is still missing. Little effort has been directed towards the evaluation of the overall impact of a risk management method. We present a Goal-driven Software Development Risk Management Model (GSRM) and its explicit integration into the requirements engineering phase and an empirical investigation result of applying GSRM into a project.MethodWe combine the case study method with action research so that the results from the case study directly contribute to manage the studied project risks and to identify ways to improve the proposed methodology. The data is collected from multiple sources and analysed both in a qualitative and quantitative way.ResultsWhen risk factors are beyond the control of the project manager and project environment, it is difficult to control these risks. The project scope affects all the dimensions of risk. GSRM is a reasonable risk management method that can be employed in an industrial context. The study results have been compared against other study results in order to generalise findings and identify contextual factors.ConclusionA formal early stage risk management practice provides early warning related to the problems that exists in a project, and it contributes to the overall project success. It is not necessary to always consider budget and schedule constraints as top priority. There exist issues such as requirements, change management, and user satisfaction which can influence these constraints.     

Low back injury risks during construction with prefabricated (panelised) walls: effects of task and design factors

New technology designed to increase productivity in residential construction may exacerbate the risk of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) among residential construction workers. Of interest here are panelised (prefabricated) wall systems (or panels) and facilitating an ongoing effort to provide proactive control of ergonomic exposures and risks among workers using panels. This study, which included 24 participants, estimated WMSD risks using five methods during common panel erection tasks and the influences of panel mass (sheathed vs. unsheathed) and size (wall length). WMSD risks were fairly high overall; e.g. 34% and 77% of trials exceeded the ‘action limits’ for spinal compressive and shear forces, respectively. Heavier (sheathed) panels significantly increased risks, although the magnitude of this effect differed with panel size and between tasks. Higher levels of risk were found in tasks originating from ground vs. knuckle height. Several practical recommendations based on the results are discussed.

Statement of Relevance:Panelised wall systems have the potential to increase productivity in residential construction, but may result in increased worker injury risks. Results from this study can be used to generate future panel design and construction processes that can proactively address WMSD risks.     

Technical Briefing: Business Continuity Management

Abstract

This article discusses business continuity management as a risk management activity that extends well beyond the realm of IT Disaster Recovery Planning. It describes a rational, iterative process for assessing the risks, selecting appropriate risk treatments, and implementing various mitigating controls including resilience, recovery and contingency measures. While the IT Department undoubtedly has an important part to play in business continuity management, the article emphasizes that the process should be driven by senior managers since they are ultimately accountable for the organization's health and survival. As such, they have an obvious interest in balancing business risks against business opportunities.     

Night-time driving: the use of seat-belts and alcohol

Abstract

The objective risks of accident involvement associated with night driving, seat-belt use and alcohol intoxication have been reported from many countries. However, much less is known about the risks associated with combinations of these activities, even though these are common. A brief review of the relevant literature suggests that young drivers and drinking drivers are less likely to wear seat-belts at night. The results of a night-time survey in the Netherlands support this finding, with the lowest rate of belt use, 21%, being for young drivers with blood alcohol levels in excess of the legal limit (0·50%). Thus those drivers who are most likely to become involved in a crash are least likely to protect themselves from injury. The implications of these findings for accident countermeasures are briefly outlined.     

Beyond human error taxonomies in assessment of risk in sociotechnical systems: a new paradigm with the EAST ‘broken-links’ approach

Abstract

Risk assessments in Sociotechnical Systems (STS) tend to be based on error taxonomies, yet the term ‘human error’ does not sit easily with STS theories and concepts. A new break-link approach was proposed as an alternative risk assessment paradigm to reveal the effect of information communication failures between agents and tasks on the entire STS. A case study of the training of a Royal Navy crew detecting a low flying Hawk (simulating a sea-skimming missile) is presented using EAST to model the Hawk-Frigate STS in terms of social, information and task networks. By breaking 19 social links and 12 task links, 137 potential risks were identified. Discoveries included revealing the effect of risk moving around the system; reducing the risks to the Hawk increased the risks to the Frigate. Future research should examine the effects of compounded information communication failures on STS performance.

Practitioner Summary: The paper presents a step-by-step walk-through of EAST to show how it can be used for risk assessment in sociotechnical systems. The ‘broken-links’ method takes a systemic, rather than taxonomic, approach to identify information communication failures in social and task networks.     

Nanomaterials in the field of design ergonomics: present status

Application of nanotechnology and nanomaterials is not new in the field of design, but a recent trend of extensive use of nanomaterials in product and/or workplace design is drawing attention of design researchers all over the world. In the present paper, an attempt has been made to describe the diverse use of nanomaterials in product and workplace design with special emphasis on ergonomics (occupational health and safety; thermo-regulation and work efficiency, cognitive interface design; maintenance of workplace, etc.) to popularise the new discipline ‘nanoergonomics’ among designers, design users and design researchers. Nanoergonomics for sustainable product and workplace design by minimising occupational health risks has been felt by the authors to be an emerging research area in coming years.

Practitioner Summary: Use of nanomaterials in the field of design ergonomics is less explored till date. In the present review, an attempt has been made to extend general awareness among ergonomists/designers about applications of nanomaterials/nanotechnology in the field of design ergonomics and about health implications of nanomaterials during their use.     

Analysis method for revealing human and organisational factors of occupational accidents with movement disturbance (OAMDs)

Abstract

Slips, trips and other movement disturbances account for 20 to 30% of recorded occupational accidents (OAs). The causal representations of these accidents hamper their prevention. An analysis method dedicated to occupational accidents with movement disturbance (OAMDs) has been developed to change these representations. In France, the causal tree method (CTM) is very commonly used for analysing OAs. An initial version of an OAMD analysis method, which overcomes the problems encountered when analysing these accidents using the CTM, has been developed. This OAMD analysis method was reviewed by six targeted prevention officers and as a result some proposals have been discarded and this initial version has been transformed into three additional CTM modules. The purpose of these modules is to identify human and organisational factors and provide a formal representation of damage caused, beyond bodily injuries.

Practitioner summary: A method for analysing occupational accidents triggered by a slip, a trip or any other movement disturbance has been developed in consideration of the practices and constraints in companies. In particular, this method allows us to highlight the human and organisational factors involved in the accident situation.

Abbreviations: OA: occupational accident; OAMD: occupational accident with movement disturbance; CTM: causal tree method     

Predicting and controlling risks from human exposures to vibration and mechanical shock: flag waving and flag weaving

At work or in leisure activities, many people are exposed to vibration or mechanical shocks associated with risks of injury or disease. This paper identifies information that can be used to decide whether there may be a risk from exposure to hand-transmitted vibration or whole-body vibration and shock, and suggests actions that can control the risks. The complex and time-varying nature of human exposures to vibration and shock, the complexity of the different disorders and uncertainty as to the mechanisms of injury and the factors influencing injury have prevented the definition of dose–response relationships well proven by scientific study. It is necessary to wave a flag indicating when there is a need to control risks from exposure to vibration and shock while scientific enquiry provides understanding needed to weave a better flag. It is concluded that quantifying exposure severity is often neither necessary nor sufficient to either identify risks or implement measures that control the risks.Practitioner Summary: The identification of risks associated with exposure to vibration and mechanical shock cannot, and need not, rely solely on the quantification of exposure severity. Qualitative methods can provide a sufficient indication of the need for control measures, which should not be restricted to reducing standardised measures of exposure severity.     

An approach and tool for measurement of state variable based data-flow test coverage for aspect-oriented programs

ContextData-flow testing approaches have been used for procedural and object-oriented programs, and shown to be effective in detecting faults. However, few such approaches have been evaluated for aspect-oriented programs. In such programs, data-flow interactions can occur between base classes and aspects, which can affect the behavior of both. Faults resulting from such interactions are hard to detect unless the interactions are specifically targeted during testing.ObjectiveThis paper presents an approach and tool implementation for measuring data-flow coverage based on state variables defined in base classes or aspects in AspectJ programs. The paper also reports on an empirical study that compares the cost and effectiveness of data-flow test criteria that are based on state variables with two control-flow criteria.MethodEffectiveness of the criteria was evaluated for various fault types. Cost-effectiveness of test suites that cover all state variable definition-use associations (DUAs) was evaluated for three coverage levels: 100%, 90%, and 80%.ResultsThe effort needed to obtain a test case that achieves data-flow coverage is higher than the effort needed to obtain a test case that covers a block or a branch in an advised class. Covering certain data flow associations requires more effort than for other types of data flow associations. The data-flow test criteria based on state variables of a base-class are in general more effective than control-flow criteria.ConclusionsOverall, it is cost-effective to obtain test suites at the 90% coverage level of data-flow criteria.     

Gaussian filter for TDOA based sound source localization in multimedia surveillance

Although multimedia surveillance systems are becoming increasingly ubiquitous in our living environment, automated multimedia surveillance systems based on video camera lacks the robustness and reliability most of the time in several real applications. To overcome this drawback, audio sensory devices have been taken into account in a considerable amount of research. For example, Sound Source Localization (SSL) may indicate potential security risks and could point the camera in that direction. In this paper, a reliable sound source localization based on Time-Difference-Of-Arrival (TDOA) is explored. The novel aspect of our approach includes a TDOA based Gaussian filter to improve the accuracy and stability of sound source localization. The advantage of our proposed algorithm is its extensive integration with various TDOA-based methods in all kinds of microphone array. The Experimental comparison shows significant improvement over the state of the art TDOA-based algorithm.

     

The Revised Strain Index: an improved upper extremity exposure assessment model

Abstract

The Revised Strain Index (RSI) is a distal upper extremity (DUE) physical exposure assessment model based on: intensity of exertion, frequency of exertion, duration per exertion, hand/wrist posture and duration of task per day. The RSI improves upon the 1995 Strain Index (SI) by using continuous rather than categorical multipliers, and replacing duty cycle with duration per exertion. In a simulation of 13,944 tasks, the RSI and 1995 SI showed good agreement in risk predictions for 1995 SI scores ≤3 (safe) and >13.5 (hazardous). For tasks with 1995 SI scores of >3 and ≤13.5, the two models showed marked disagreement, with the RSI providing much greater discriminations between ‘safe’ and ‘hazardous’ tasks for various combinations of force, repetition and duty cycle. We believe the RSI is a substantially improved model that will be useful for DUE task analysis, intervention and design.

Practitioner Summary: RSI is a substantial improvement over the 1995 SI. It should be a valuable tool for designing and analysing tasks to determine risk of musculoskeletal injuries. RSI is applicable to a wide variety of tasks including very low force and very high repetition tasks such as keyboard use.     

Development of a Sensor Fusion Strategy for Robotic Application Based on Geometric Optimization

Fusion of multi-sensor information is an important technology, which is growing exponentially due to its tremendous application potential in many areas. Effective fusion of data from sensors is very critical in increasing an intelligent system's capability to accomplish complex tasks. Appropriate fusion technologies are needed to be developed specially when a system requires redundant sensors to be used. More the redundancy in sensors, more is the computational complexity for controlling the system and more is its intelligence level. This research presents a strategy developed for multiple sensor fusion, based on geometric optimization. Each sensor's uncertainty has been modeled using classical Lagrangian optimization techniques. However, the uniqueness and effectiveness of the present technique lies on the fact that starting from the optimized value as initial estimate the accuracy of the sensory information has further been improved up to any pre defined bounded range, by developing two architectures – FFA (fission–fusion architecture) and FDD (fusion in differential domain). Sufficient evidences and analyses have been provided in the paper to show its effectiveness in various applications.