从度电成本分析光伏平价的路径

首先对影响光伏项目度电成本的因素和敏感性进行分析,并进一步对敏感性最强的初始投资、发电量的下降途径进行分析。通过分析推测出:光伏项目今年的初始投资预计约下降10%,可使度电成本约下降8%;在不限电的情况下,发电量可提高5%~15%,可使度电成本下降约11%;两因素综合考虑,预计今年的度电成本下降约15%。最后,本文从社会综合成本的角度,分析了火电的环境成本,发现其与国家给光伏项目的度电补贴相当,从这个意义上来说,火电、光伏发电的社会综合成本相当。     

中国燃煤发电、大型光伏项目度电成本比较与预测

燃煤发电在中国发电结构中所占比重约为70%。在近几年的能源结构转型中,绿色低碳的光伏发电发展势头迅猛。两种发电电源各具特色,哪种在经济性上更占优,则未来将有更大的发展空间。以2016年发电设备实际利用小时数等数据为参数,计算大型光伏发电项目和燃煤发电项目的度电成本,大型光伏发电项目的度电成本比燃煤发电项目要高很多,两者年利用小时数的巨大差异是造成这种结果的主要原因之一。未来燃煤发电项目的度电成本呈总体升高趋势,但上升趋势较缓;大型光伏发电项目的度电成本总体呈下降趋势,且下降较快。2030~2035年间,大型光伏发电项目与燃煤发电项目的度电成本开始发生重合,之后一部分大型光伏发电项目的度电成本会低于燃煤发电。通过敏感性分析,在度电成本预测中,容量因子、项目经济评价年限、建设期贷款利率等诸多因素都会对度电成本产生影响,其中度电成本对容量因子(即年利用小时数)的敏感性非常高。由于存在诸多不确定因素,燃煤发电项目收益的可预见性不如光伏发电。提高年利用小时数是促进光伏产业健康发展的有效举措之一。     

光伏阵列倾角与土地成本双因素影响下的光伏发电项目经济性分析研究

采用PVsyst软件,对光伏阵列倾角与土地成本双因素影响下的光伏发电项目经济性进行了研究和分析,分析了光伏阵列倾角与倾斜面上总太阳辐射量及光伏发电项目实际发电量的关系,计算了不同光伏阵列倾角和不同单位土地租金下光伏场区占地面积、土地年租金,以及光伏发电项目的平准化度电成本(LCOE)。研究结果表明：在光伏阵列倾角及土地成本双因素的共同影响下,随着光伏阵列倾角的增大,项目的 LCOE呈先下降后上升的趋势,存在一个光伏阵列倾角使LCOE最优,且该光伏阵列倾角与项目发电量最高时对应的光伏阵列倾角可能不同。不同单位土地租金下,项目的 LCOE最优时对应的光伏阵列倾角可能不同,随着单位土地租金提高,项目的 LCOE最优时对应的光伏阵列倾角逐渐降低。     

提高“容配比”是降低光伏发电成本的最有效方法

通过分析光伏发电与逆变器工作原理,提出提高光伏-逆变器容配比可以改变光伏发电的功率曲线,充分利用光资源,提高逆变、变电、配电、送电设备和设施的利用率,降低工程造价;并进一步定量计算了青海格尔木与江苏苏州地区容配比对于工程造价与度电成本的影响,结果表明,合理的光伏-逆变器容配比应该在1.5:1以上;还讨论了提高容配比的同时补装直流侧容量,才能够使光伏电站达到备案容量的额定出力,真正意义上改变光伏电是"间歇电源""垃圾电"的认识,成为"压得下、拉得起"的支撑性电源;并利用度电成本分析的方法,计算了合理容配比能够降低度电成本0.026～0.041元/kWh。在光伏发电技术成本、非技术成本都下降到极限,再进一步下降已经非常困难的情况下,合理的光伏-逆变器容配比设计是降低光伏发电成本、促进平价上网最有效的方法。     

基于青海地区在运光伏电站监测数据的容配比提升分析

随着光伏发电技术进步,近年来光伏组件价格呈快速下降趋势,于是对早期光伏电站进行大规模的光伏组件扩容翻新有了实质性的经济意义。根据青海地区正在运行的光伏电站的实时监测数据,建立光伏组件-逆变器限电率模型,以度电成本(LCOE)为考核指标,分析在不同扩容工程的工程造价影响下,光伏组件-逆变器容配比(下文简称“容配比”)与LCOE的敏感性关系,以确定在运光伏电站扩容后的最佳容配比,为未来光伏电站扩容设计提供指导方法。     

钙钛矿光伏组件成本预测

针对钙钛矿太阳电池的瓦电成本和度电成本提出计算方法。从钙钛矿光伏组件的生产技术路线着手,结合钙钛矿光伏组件在生产与制造过程中的材料成本、产线成本以及产线折旧等方面对钙钛矿光伏组件的瓦电成本进行计算和讨论。同时对钙钛矿光伏组件的度电成本进行预测,并与火电、水电以及风电的度电成本进行比较,所得结论可为从事钙钛矿光伏组件制造的企业与科研院所提供一定的助益信息。     

平单轴支架应用于屋顶分布式光伏项目的经济可行性分析

为了在有限的屋顶面积下实现屋顶分布式光伏项目度电成本最低的目标,利用度电成本的经济性分析模型,选取了11个不同纬度和光照资源条件的地区,对这些地区采用平单轴支架与固定支架2种排布方式的屋顶分布式光伏项目的度电成本进行了对比,并分析了平单轴支架应用于屋顶分布式光伏项目的经济可行性。     

光伏发电发展趋势分析

回顾了光伏发电的发展历程,通过对光伏发电度电成本与煤电度电成本的变化趋势对比,将未来光伏发展模式分为3个阶段,即政策补贴发展阶段、大规模分布式并网应用阶段和大规模分散式并网就地消纳阶段,并提出了光伏发电各阶段的发展建议。     

LCOE建模及关键影响因子分析

围绕着光伏发电系统的度电成本(LCOE)概念和现状,开发了一套适用于我国光伏发电项目的LCOE计算模型。利用该模型估算我国当前光伏发电项目的LCOE水平,对LCOE的关键影响因子进行分析,并预测光伏发电项目的LCOE发展趋势。     

并网光伏发电项目的LCOE分析

围绕并网光伏发电系统的度电成本/平准化电力成本(LCOE)水平进行了分析讨论。针对LCOE的评估依据和测算方法,提出一种适用于我国光伏发电项目的 LCOE评估模型。利用该模型对影响LCOE的几个典型因素进行了敏感性分析;测算了我国光伏发电项目的 LCOE水平;预测了光伏发电项目的 LCOE发展。     

Economic analysis of solar energy development in North Africa

The economic analysis of solar energy development is the basis of promoting the solar energy planning in north Africa and realizing the clean energy power transmission among continents. In this paper, the cost development trend of photovoltaic(PV) power and concentrating solar power(CSP) generation is analyzed, and the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of solar power generation is forecasted. Then, taking the development of Tunisian solar energy as an example in the context of transcontinental transmission, PV power with energy storage and PV-CSP power generation are given as two kinds of development plan respectively. The installed capacity configurations of the two schemes are given with production simulation method, and comprehensive LCOE are calculated. The studies show that based on the LCOE forecast value, the LCOE of PV-CSP combined power generation will decrease when the annual utilization hours of transmission channel is increased. It can be chosen as one of important mode of the North Africa solar energy development.     

Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of renewable energies and required subsidies in China

The development and utilization of renewable energy (RE), a strategic choice for energy structural adjustment, is an important measure of carbon emissions reduction in China. High cost is a main restriction element for large-scale development of RE, and accurate cost estimation of renewable power generation is urgently necessary. This is the first systemic study on the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of RE in China. Results indicate that feed-in-tariff (FIT) of RE should be improved and dynamically adjusted based on the LCOE to provide a better support of the development of RE. The current FIT in China can only cover the LCOE of wind (onshore) and solar photovoltaic energy (PV) at a discount rate of 5%. Subsidies to renewables-based electricity generation, except biomass energy, still need to be increased at higher discount rates. Main conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) Government policy should focus on solving the financing problem of RE projects because fixed capital investment exerts considerable influence over the LCOE; and (2) the problem of high cost could be solved by providing subsidies in the short term and more importantly, by reforming electricity price in the mid-and long-term to make the RE competitive.     

Is the concept of ‘grid parity’ defined appropriately to evaluate the cost-competitiveness of renewable energy technologies?

The concept of ‘grid parity’ has emerged as a key indicator of the competitiveness of renewable electricity generation technologies. In this study, we firstly summarize the definition of the current levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) based methodology for the concept and address its limitation in not taking into account the systematic changes in an electric power system. Secondly, we introduce a bottom-up energy system model based methodology to overcome the limitation. Lastly, we apply the methodology to a case study, the grid parity analysis of solar photovoltaic and onshore wind technologies in the Korean electric power system, to highlight the differences between the results obtained using both methodologies. The results of the study show three implications. First, even if the LCOE of onshore wind is already lower than that of natural gas technologies and the average price of grid electricity, the LCOE is required to be much lower to achieve cost-competitiveness in the electric power system. Second, different technologies might be required to have different LCOE levels to be cost-competitive in the same power system. Third, a policy or plan for the deployment of renewable energy technologies must be harmonized with other policies and plans within the same system.     

广东省生物质发电应用的影响因素分析

中国农林生物质发电装机已超过“十三五”规划的目标,但华南地区如广东省的生物质发电装机只占全国的3.2%,发展相对落后,生物质发电利用存在区域发展不平衡的问题。本文采用德尔菲法、多标准技术筛选模型及生物质发电项目财务分析模型,以广东省为例,分析其生物质发电应用的主要影响因素并提出建议。分析结果表明,广东省生物质总资源量为3 300万t,发电潜力为1 196亿kW?h,而其中的经济潜力为174亿kW?h,全省生物质发电实际利用量仅占经济潜力的17.6%,生物质发电利用仍有巨大的发展空间。大规模的生物质发电项目的原料需求量大,收集半径过大,原料价格及收集与运输成本过高,导致发电成本超过0.8元/(kW?h),大于0.75元/(kW?h)的生物质标杆电价,致使项目折现投资回收期超过30年,内部收益率不足1%,项目财务负担过重,严重制约了生物质发电利用的发展;研究引入企业所得税收优惠以及原料处理费补贴,发现项目财务主要指标均得到显著改善。建议开发前期对周边原料市场进行调研考察,将原料种类多样化并根据气候和物流特点制定详细的原料收集规划,新建生物质电厂应控制装机规模在30 MW以内,使得原料收集范围在300 km以内,以控制原料收集与运输成本;完善税收优惠政策,政策应涵盖更多的生物质原料种类,使电厂能享受相应优惠;建立原料处理费补贴机制,以原料中生物质废物垃圾比例为指标发放补贴,实现外部环境成本内部化,提高环保效益,促进广东省生物质能利用的发展。     

Solar energy in Malaysia: Current state and prospects

Malaysia is situated at the equatorial region with an average solar radiation of 400-600 MJ/m² per month. It has a promising potential to establish large scale solar power installations; however, solar energy is still at the infancy stage due to the high cost of photovoltaic (PV) cells and solar electricity tariff rate. The Malaysian government is keen to develop solar energy as one of the significant sources of energy in the country. According to the 9th Malaysia Plan (9MP), a large allocation had been dedicated for implementation of solar PV systems. On 25th July 2005, a Malaysian Building Integrated Photovoltaic (MBIPV) project had been announced and it was planned to end by 2010. The project consists of three categories which include: BIPV demonstration, national “SURIA1000” and BIPV showcase. Greater emphasis will be placed on energy efficiency under the Tenth Malaysia Plan (2011-2015). This paper discusses present and future situation of solar power in Malaysia, utilization of solar energy and the strategies taken by the Malaysian government and Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) to promote solar energy thermal applications and electricity power generation in the future.     

Incorporating externalities into a full cost approach to electric power generation life-cycle costing

This study presents a full cost approach to determine the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of 14 electricity generation technologies. It encompasses costs incurred at all stages of the fuel cycle, including those that are traditionally omitted from economic evaluations of generation technologies. Incorporating these “externalities” increases the likelihood of developing the most economical and sustainable power resource from a societal perspective. The following externalities are included in this analysis: damage from air pollution, energy security, transmission and distribution costs, and other environmental impacts. Incorporating externalities has a large impact on the LCOE and the relative attractiveness of electricity generation options. Results indicate that clean and efficient generation technologies are the most attractive when all options are examined using a full cost, levelized approach.     

“十一五”前4年广东省节能影响因素分析

本文对广东省能源消费情况进行了介绍,分析了"十一五"前4年广东省单位GDP能耗变化趋势,并采用因素分解模型对2006～2009年广东省单位GDP能耗和工业增加值能耗变动因素进行了分解和分析,根据上述结果,提出了"十二五"广东省节能工作的相关建议。     

天然气联合循环电厂燃烧后CO2捕集一体化技术经济评价

  目的  近年来,天然气发电在我国构建清洁能源体系中扮演着重要角色,预计到2025年“十四五”规划期结束时,中国气电装机容量将会突破150 GW。二氧化碳捕集利用是气电实现“双碳”目标的关键路径之一。  方法  为此,设立1个600 MW等级天然气联合循环发电（NGCC）、1个CO₂捕集和压缩（PCC）的综合工厂作为模拟对象。  结果  模拟研究表明:设计CO₂全烟气量捕集、90%效率、CO₂压缩提纯率为99.5%,燃气发电总出力输出下降了约16.05%,厂用电率增加5.55%,循环冷却水需求增加了约50.52%。  结论  通过经济分析显示,综合工厂的静态投资成本比单一发电厂的成本高54.28%,电力均等化运营成本（LCOE）增加了15.96%,给二氧化碳捕集的部署和发展带来了非常大的困难。但其中天然气价格仍然是影响电厂运营成本的最主要因素。     

A review of the IEA/NEA Projected Costs of Electricity – 2015 edition

The IEA/NEA recently issued their eighth edition of the Study on the “Projected Costs of Generating Electricity” – 2015 edition. The Study is mainly concerned with calculating the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE). The LCOE calculations are based on a levelised average life time cost approach using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. The analysis was this year, and for the first time, performed using three discount rates (3%, 7%, and 10%). The LCOE can serve as a tool for calculating the cost of different generation technologies. However the Study's usefulness is affected by its narrow base of a limited set of countries that are not necessarily representative. It ignored the negative role of subsidies and did not provide a methodology for selective application of the discount rates and costing of carbon. The global power generation scene is changing. Generation growth in OECD countries has become very limited; simultaneously there is rapid growth of varying renewables (VRE) generation which needs special criteria for assessing its system cost. All this demands a rethinking of the application and usefulness of the LCOE in future generation planning.     

基于学习曲线的中国光伏发电成本发展趋势分析

介绍了我国光伏发电的发展情况,以学习曲线模型为原理,分别采用恒定学习率与分阶段学习率分析了未来我国10年光伏发电单位成本发展趋势,并估算了光伏发电实现商业化运作所需的学习成本,预测在2020年左右我国光伏发电成本有望与传统化石能源相持平,进而步入大规模商业化运作阶段。