共查询到18条相似文献,搜索用时 250 毫秒
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灰色模型用于城市年需水量的预测,能够克服传统的数理统计方法的资料难以收集、精度难以保证等不足。该文结合广州市2003~2010年的年用水量建立GM(1,1)模型进行拟合,结果良好。对2011~2015年广州市需水量进行预测,发现2011~2015年广州市需水量总体呈现下降趋势,其中工农业需水量下降趋势明显,但生活需水量呈现增长趋势。 相似文献
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熊光红 《水资源与水工程学报》2013,24(1):10-13
利用等维灰数递补法、非线性回归、广义回归神经网络等3种方法进行了西安市生活需水量预测,比较了不同方法的预测误差,然后根据各种方法对总预测值的信息贡献能力形成Shapley值组合需水量预测方法,计算了不同预测方法的Shapley值及其组合权重,形成组合预测需水量模型。预测结果表明:组合方法误差曲线平缓、平均误差值较小,具有一定的预测精度,适用于需水量的中短期预测。 相似文献
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基于灰色Verhulst的城市生活需水量预测模型 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
根据城市生活需水量的特性,建立基于灰色Verhulst的城市生活需水量预测模型,可解决需水量呈S形曲线增长时的中长期预测问题.实例应用表明,灰色Verhulst模型用于城市生活需水量预测,能够满足精度要求. 相似文献
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简要分析了乐亭县国民经济发展现状,采用趋势法对乐亭县国民经济中期发展进行预测,并根据人口增长及经济社会发展水平对乐亭县近、中期不同降水保证率条件下国民经济需水量进行预测。 相似文献
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在目前生活需水量多种预测方法中,往往回避将经济发展指标作为直接影响因素。本文用传统的预测方法,先对生活必需水量加以预测,然后单独考虑GDP对生活需水量的影响,建立了与GDP相关的生活需水量预测模型。用该模型对西安和北京两地的生活需水量进行预测,结果表明该模型进行生活需水量预测是可行的。 相似文献
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黑河中游地区生态用水现状及预测分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
黑河中游地区水资源短缺问题日益严重,对水资源进行合理的优化配置有助于缓解矛盾.在满足生活生产需水的同时,应重视生态需水量,以保证生态环境不会恶化.以黑河中游张掖市为例,对现状生态环境需水量计算,并采用灰色数列预测法对甘州区、临泽县、高台县2010年生态林草的需水进行了预测.预测结果对黑河中游地区未来生态用水规划有指导作用. 相似文献
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西安城市生活需水量预测 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3
根据西安市过去若干年生活用水量的统计资料,分别采用一元线性回归、生长曲线、GM(1,1)灰色系统模型和人均综合生活用水定额法对西安2010年、2015年城市生活需水量进行预测,并对各种方法的预测结果进行分析比较,认为生长曲线模型的预测结果比较合理,确定了西安2010年、2015年城市生活需水量范围。 相似文献
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浅论水资源需求管理中的经济措施 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
本文在探讨水资源需求管理的内涵和论证水资源需求管理的重要性和必要性的基础上,对水资源需求管理的经济措施进行了初步探讨。论证了建立合理水价形成机制的必要性,提出了建立合理水价形成机制的模式;研究了水费结构的设计方法,并对多种水费结构的优缺点进行了分析;对生活用水、工业用水和农业用水等分类用水的具体需求管理经济措施进行了探讨,提出了具体的实施方法。 相似文献
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青岛市工业需水量预测研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
随着工业的快速发展,工业需水量与日俱增,工业需水量的合理预测已成为城市供水和水资源规划极其重要的部分。以青岛市为研究对象,对其工业需水量进行了预测研究,预测方法采用灰色预测理论。根据灰色预测理论预测青岛市工业发展;对青岛市实际情况进行分析,确定其未来的需水定额;采用定额法得出青岛市未来年份的工业需水量。 相似文献
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Abstract The water balance in the West Bank shows a severe deficit. Scenarios and strategies are formulated in order to overcome the deficit problem. These include options for better management of the existing water resources and the enhancement of new resources. This paper focuses on demand modeling as one of the key issues for effective water management. Although past literature about demand modeling is comparatively rich for different regions in the world, this research provides a unique study, due to the past political situation in the Middle East, for water demand modeling in the West Bank. The developed statistical domestic water demand model will assess the factors which influence domestic water use, and determine the parameters that may help in demand management. Rammallah City is used as a case study to illustrate the proposed framework of the analysis. The developed model indicates that water utility authorities can use price as a tool to ration water or encourage reduced water consumption in households. 相似文献
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Omar K.M. Ouda 《国际水资源开发杂志》2014,30(2):335-344
Saudi Arabia is facing a chronic water-shortage problem. Demand far exceeds the sustainable yield of both conventional and non-conventional water resources. The resulting demand–supply gap is being bridged through groundwater depletion. In this paper, demand–supply gaps for the coming 20 years are projected under three scenarios: optimistic, moderate and pessimistic. Future sustainable water yields are calculated and allocated to projected water demand in the domestic, industrial and agricultural sectors. The study shows that Saudi Arabia will not be able to bridge the demand–supply gap in the near future. Intensive water demand management measures are needed in all sectors to minimize future demand–supply gaps, especially focused on the largest water consumer: the agricultural sector. 相似文献
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Sustainability Analysis for Yellow River Water Resources Using the System Dynamics Approach 总被引:5,自引:1,他引:4
The water resource issue is one of the most significant problemsthat the Yellow River basin will face this century, and one which has received much attention by public and government for several years. Water authorities will face great challenges in meeting the in-stream flow requirements and providing more water for growing populations, industry and agriculture. In order toevaluate the sustainability of the water resource system inthe study area, an object-oriented system dynamics approachhas been used to develop a model for the water resourcessystem in the Yellow River basin, which is referred to asthe Water Resources System Dynamics (WRSD) model. It hasbeen developed for simulating a water resource system andcapturing the dynamic character of the main elements affectingwater demand and supply in the study area. For thebusiness-as-usual (BaU) scenario, the water demands in theYellow River basin are estimated 50.9, 56.5, and 59.5billion m3 for 2010, 2020, and 2030. The existing andpotential water supplies from surface water, aquifers andtreated waste-water are estimated, and potential waterdemands for domestic, industrial and agricultural uses areprojected. Various water supply and demand scenarios havethen been explored by changing variables and parameters,and the sustainability index of the water supply system isestimated for different sub-regions over various periods. 相似文献
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根据太湖流域 1998年的实际水资源量和社会经济发展用水量 ,分析该流域工业、农业和人口用水现状的空间分布 ,就社会经济发展趋势 ,指出近 10年流域内 ,工业水资源消耗增长幅度不大 ,农业保持现有水平 ,生活用水将大幅度增加。 相似文献
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Abstract This paper presents a modeling approach for projections of water demand and supply for domestic, industrial, livestock, and irrigation at the basin or country level in a global scope. Particular emphasis is put on simulating water availability for crops taking into account total renewable water, non-irrigation water demand, water supply infrastructure, and economic and environmental policies at the basin or country level. This paper focuses on concepts and methodology involved in the modeling exercise. Data assessment and results are presented in a companion paper (Rosegrant and Cai, 2002). 相似文献