Lifecycle analysis of different urban transport options for Bangladesh

Once again, sustained high oil prices are forcing policy makers in oil importing countries to consider alternatives to oil products as transportation fuels. Unlike in the past, advancements in technology, relative success of some experiments and increased familiarity among and acceptance by the public of some alternatives indicate a higher likelihood of success. In particular, natural gas offers a couple of the best options as compressed natural gas (CNG) and chemical conversion of natural gas into diesel (gas-to-liquids, GTL). These options are likely to be most attractive in countries that have cheap access to natural gas. We compare lifetime costs of several individual transportation options for Bangladesh, an oil importer with natural gas reserves. The results are then used to inform the natural gas policy debate in the country. Assuming a natural gas price of $1.5 per million Btu, both the CNG and GTL options are competitive with conventional gasoline/diesel cars if the oil price stays higher than $35–40 per barrel. If natural gas price increases after new upstream developments, CNG becomes less attractive while GTL remains competitive up to $2.5 if capital costs of GTL facilities decline as expected. Under a government policy push (lower discounting), the breakeven price of oil falls to $30–35 per barrel.     

Break-even price for upstream activities in Brazil: Evaluation of the opportunity cost of oil production delay in a non-mature sedimentary production region

Some Latin American policy-makers and analysts state that it would be better to hold oil reserves in place than to produce and cash it now, given the recent oil prices spikes and the fear related to future oil supply disruptions. This article evaluates the strategy of delaying the start-up of oil production in a discovered field with proved reserves. A Reference Discounted Cash Flow (FCD-R) for a typical 350 million barrel Brazilian oil field was simulated. The study estimated which future oil price may render the project insensitive to a delay of 5, 10, 15 or 20 years in its production beginning. Additionally, the value of the in situ oil stock was calculated, providing the opportunity cost for delaying oil production in a frontier area, such as Brazil. It is an application of the Hotelling Principle. Findings indicate that progressive delays of 5 years in the start-up of operation of a typical oil field reduce its revenues by a factor of 2. A delay of 10 years would be justifiable at international oil prices higher than US $15/bbl. Delays higher than 10 years lead this break-even price to values between US $200 and 350/bbl.     

Can alternative energy resources be brought into large-scale use in the united states by the year 2000?

The greatest single barrier to the replacement of imported crude oil with alternative indigenous fuels on a substantial scale is an economic one. Alternatives to natural crude oil (for liquid fuels) will be more expensive for many years in the future. For example, a study made in 1977 by the National Research Council suggests that synthetic crude oil could be produced from coal at a cost of between $20 and $30 per barrel (1976 dollars). Some experts believe that this estimate should be raised to $25 to $40. Comparing this with OPECs October 1979 price of $14.54 per barrel, it is unrealistic for us to expect that synthetic crude oil will compete with natural crude oil very soon. By the time there is a true economic competition it will probably be too late for the major oil importing countries to do much about it.Plants for the production of synthetic crude oil will be both large and expensive. The capital cost of a plant capable of producing 50,000 barrels of synthetic crude oil per day from coal is estimated to be about $1 billion (1976) and would take about 5 yr to construct. If this is the case, the processes of capital accumulation, R&D, design, and construction of the first generation of synthetic crude oil plants would have to be started immediately to achieve some measure of self-sufficiency by the turn of the century. Clearly this is unlikely to happen in the absence of a substantial involvement of the federal government in the effort. As much as we might wish otherwise, it is unlikely that there is a solution to this problem through “the free play of the marketplace”.Recent studies suggest that if synthetic crude oil were to cost $40 per barrel fed to U.S. refineries, gasoline without tax would cost less than $1.30 per gallon (1976)—which is still substantially less than the price paid for gasoline in 1976 in Europe and Japan. This suggests that the necessary capital for the construction of synthetic crude oil plants could be accumulated through use of a graduated gasoline tax which, in 1976 terms, would lead eventually to a price of gasoline to the consumer of about $1.30 per gallon.At the present time fuel-grade ethyl alcohol can be produced from sugar or corn for about $1.25 per gallon. Because of the lower fuel value of alcohol per gallon this price would correspond to gasoline costing $1.80 per gallon. However the Brazilians have recently demonstrated that if pure alcohol is used in automobiles with proper carburetor adjustments, the achieved mileage per gallon is actually about the same as that of gasoline, largely because of the more efficient combustion.The important conclusion for us to ponder is that, once the people of the U.S. reconcile themselves to paying about $1.30 per gallon (1976) for gasoline, many possibilities emerge for achieving energy independence on a time scale which is commensurate with the need. Other sources of liquid fuels would emerge including oil shale and extensive secondary and tertiary recovery of crude oil from depleted domestic fields. The greatly increased price of gasoline (and other refinery products) would undoubtedly result in the adoption of more intensive conservation practices and an accelerated shift to other fuel sources to fill needs other than transportation.     

A parametric analysis of future ethanol use in the light-duty transportation sector: Can the US meet its Renewable Fuel Standard goals without an enforcement mechanism?

The modified Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) prescribes a volume of biofuels to be used in the United States transportation sector each year through 2022. As the dominant component of the transportation sector, we consider the feasibility of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) parc to provide enough demand for biofuels to satisfy RFS2. Sensitivity studies show that the fuel price differential between gasoline and ethanol blendstocks, such as E85, is the principal factor in LDV biofuel consumption. The numbers of flex fuel vehicles and biofuel refueling stations will grow given a favorable price differential. However, unless the feedstock price differential becomes extreme (biomass prices below $100 per dry ton and oil prices above $215 per barrel), which deviates from historical price trends, LDV parc biofuel consumption will fall short of the RFS2 mandate without an enforcement mechanism. Additionally, such commodity prices might increase biofuel consumption in the short-term, but discourage use of biofuels in the long-term as other technologies that do not rely on any gasoline blendstock may be preferable. Finally, the RFS2 program goals of reducing fossil fuel consumption and transportation greenhouse gas emissions could be achieved through other pathways, such as notable improvements in conventional vehicle efficiency.     

2010年国际原油价格走势分析与判断

2010年国际原油价格走势将继续受到全球经济复苏、需求、供应、库存、美元走势、投机以及地缘政治等因素的影响。预计2010年国际油价仍将在震荡中不断走高,波动区间大致为70～90美元/桶。为应对国际油价的波动,中国应更多地参与国际油价的决定,关键是建立和完善石油战略储备体系和石油金融战略体系。     

The effect of productivity and country risk on development in the Brazilian Pre-salt Province

Twelve years after the first significant discovery in the pre-salt layer, pre-salt fields represent about 55% of Brazil’s oil production. Following an economic recession, an increase in the country credit risk, and the 2014 oil price collapse, we analyze the production of petroleum in the pre-salt zones by identifying: the break-even price (BEP), and the effect of oil price, price volatility, productivity, and country risk on wells drilled. To identify these effects on the number of wells drilled into the pre-salt zone, we estimate 100 cointegrating vector autoregression models that specify 10 measures of price and 10 break-even prices. The most accurate model measures oil prices using WTI, has a BEP of $62 per barrel (2018 prices). Results indicate the negative and positive effect, respectively, of raising the country risk and productivity on the number of development wells drilled into the pre-salt zone.     

The Iranian crisis — its impact on the price of oil

The simulations reported in this article show that if the present shortfall in oil supply is made good solely by price rises, the required price for 1979 that would clear the market is $16.51 per barrel (corresponding to a 30% increase over the 1978 price of $12.70). The dynamic response of oil consumption to a shock of a 40% increase in oil prices during 1979 is traced up to 1985. Contrasted against the base case of a 10% price rise, the model predicts that the share of oil to total energy could be cut by up to 3 percentage points over the next seven years.     

Price pass-through in US gasoline markets

Using an error-correction model in a seemingly unrelated regression framework, we examine regional differences in the price pass-through from crude oil spot prices to retail gasoline pump prices. We show that regional differences do exist both in the short run and long run adjustment processes. Depending on the region, a $1 per barrel change in crude oil prices is correlated with a change in retail gasoline pump prices somewhere between 2.36¢ and 2.58¢. We examine the presence of the rockets and feathers phenomenon using both single period coefficient tests and multiple period impulse response functions.     

Assessment of coal and biomass to liquid fuels in central Appalachia,USA

Liquid fuels from coal and biomass have the potential to reduce petroleum fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions. A multi‐equation model was developed to assess the economics of a potential coal/biomass‐to‐liquids (CBTL) fuel plant in the central Appalachian hardwood region, USA. The model minimizes the total annual production cost subject to a series of regional supply, demand, and other constraints. Model inputs include coal and biomass availability, biomass handling system, plant investment, production capacity, transportation logistics, and project financing. The outputs include the required selling price (RSP) and the optimal logistical decision‐making associated with feedstock requirement, collection, delivery, and liquid fuel production. Results showed that the RSP of Fischer–Tropsch (FT) diesel for a 40 000 barrel‐per‐day CBTL plant with coal/biomass ratio (by weight) of 85/15 was $86.45–87.25 bbl^?1 using different biomass handling systems. The RSP would vary between $86.45 and $89.81 per barrel according to different coal/biomass mix ratios. In consideration of the carbon offset credits due to the addition of biomass, the RSP was adjusted to $84.19–86.74 with respect to four levels of carbon prices. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the RSP of FT diesel was mostly affected by plant capacity, capital cost, coal price, and liquid fuel yield. The crude‐oil‐equivalent price of FT fuels must be above $66 bbl^?1 for a CBTL plant to be profitable in central Appalachia for the long run. These results can help investors/decision‐makers evaluate future CBTL developments in the region. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of oil prices on bioenergy,emissions and land use

We evaluate how alternative future oil prices will influence the penetration of biofuels, energy production, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, land use and other outcomes. Our analysis employs a global economy wide model and simulates alternative oil prices out to 2050 with and without a price on GHG emissions. In one case considered, based on estimates of available resources, technological progress and energy demand, the reference oil price rises to $124 by 2050. Other cases separately consider constant reference oil prices of $50, $75 and $100, which are targeted by adjusting the quantity of oil resources. In our simulations, higher oil prices lead to more biofuel production, more land being used for bioenergy crops, and fewer GHG emissions. Reducing oil resources to simulate higher oil prices has a strong income effect, so decreased food demand under higher oil prices results in an increase in land allocated to natural forests. We also find that introducing a carbon price reduces the differences in oil use and GHG emissions across oil price cases.     

Incentivizing wood-based Fischer–Tropsch diesel through financial policy instruments: An economic assessment for Norway

The objective of this study is to evaluate a select set of financial incentive instruments that can be employed by the Norwegian government for encouraging early investment and production experience in wood-based Fischer–Tropsch diesel (FTD) technologies as a means to accelerate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) stemming from road-based transport. We start by performing an economic analysis of FTD produced from Norwegian forest biomass at a pioneer commercial plant in Norway, followed with a cost growth analysis to estimate production costs after uncertainty in early plant performance and capital cost estimates are considered. Results after the cost growth analysis imply that the initial production cost estimates for a pioneer producer may be underestimated by up to 30%. Using the revised estimate we then assess, through scenarios, how various financial support mechanisms designed to encourage near-term investment would affect production costs over a range of uncertain future oil prices. For all policy scenarios considered, we evaluate trade-offs between the levels of public expenditure, or subsidy, and private investor profitability. When considering the net present value of the subsidy required to incentivize commercial investment during a future of low oil prices, we find that GHG mitigation via wood-FTD is likely to be considered cost-ineffective. However, should the government expect that mean oil prices in the coming two decades will hover between $97 and 127/bbl, all the incentive policies considered would likely spur investment at net present values ≤$-100/tonne-fossil-CO₂-equivalent avoided.     

Oil from shale: The potential,the problems,and a plan for development

A unitized management and development of the government-owned oil shale in Colorado will make it technically and economically practical to obtain very large production rates (1–5 × 10⁶ bbl/day) of shale oil from this source. The estimated price is below world prices and could be less than $15/bbl. Private oil shale lands, on the other hand, provide a smaller though still important potential for production in terms of resource size and economic cost. Important differences exist in the nature of the oil-shale resource held by the government and that held by private companies. These differences are crucial not only in estimating production costs and incentives necessary for production but also in defining applicable technology.     

An analysis of the proposed Btu tax on the us economy

This paper examines the impacts of a Btu tax on energy on the United States economy. The analytical approach used in the analysis consisted of a general equilibrium model composed of fourteen producing sectors, fourteen consuming sectors, six household categories classified by income and a government. The effects of imposing a tax on natural gas, coal, and nuclear power of 25.7 cents per million Btu and a tax on refined petroleum products of 59.9 cents per million Btu on prices and quantities are examined. The results are revealing. For example, a Btu tax on energy imposed at the point of production will result in lower output by the producing sectors (by about $122.4 billion), a decrease in the consumption of goods and services (by about $64.6 billion), and a reduction in welfare (by about $66.6 billion). The government would realize an increase in revenue of about $50.5 billion. In the case of the Btu tax being imposed at the point of consumption, there will be lower output by the producing sectors (by about $83.7 billion), a reduction in the consumption of goods and services (by about $48.3 billion), and a reduction in welfare (by about $49.5 billion). The government would realize an increase in revenue of $41.3 billion. Finally, when subjected to a sensitivity analysis, the results are reasonably robust with regard to the assumption of the values of the substitution elasticities.     

Biofuel excision and the viability of ethanol production in the Green Triangle,Australia

The promotion and use of renewable energy sources are established priorities worldwide as a way to reduce emissions of Greenhouse Gases and promote energy security. Australia is committed to reach a target of 350 ML of biofuels per year by 2010, and incentives targeted to producers and consumers have been placed. These incentives include zero excise until 2011 for the ethanol produced in Australia and gradual increase of the taxation rates reaching the full excise of 0.125 AUD per litre by 2015. This paper analyses the viability of the second generation ethanol industry in the Green Triangle, one of the most promising Australian regions for biomass production, by comparing the energy adjusted pump prices of petrol and the produced ethanol under different taxation rates and forecasted oil prices. Major findings suggest that under the current conditions of zero fuel excise and oil prices around 80US$ per barrel ethanol production is viable using biomass with a plant gate cost of up to 74 AUD per ton. Moreover, the forecasted increase in oil prices have a higher impact on the price of petrol than the increased ethanol excise on the pump price of the biofuel. Thus, by 2016 feedstock with a plant gate cost of up to 190 AUD per ton might be used for ethanol production, representing a flow of 1.7 million tons of biomass per year potentially mitigating 1.2 million tons of CO₂ by replacing fossil fuels with ethanol.     

A hybrid approach to the estimation of undiscovered oil resources in the United States

This paper deals with the problem of estimating cumulative reserves and cumulative production of crude oil in the United States. We first demonstrate that these cumulative values depend on technological change and the price of crude oil. The results suggest that approx. 205 billion barrels of oil are ultimately recoverable and producible at a price of $29 per barrel. Of this total, 114 billion barrels have been produced through the end of 1977.     

A model for industrial production of fuel grade ethanol from sugar beets

In this work we describe a model for industrial production of low cost ethanol from sugar beets. Care is taken to cover the energy needs of the factory in part by using dry pulp as fuel and in part by solar energy, using suitable solar collectors. Also, care is taken for recovery of rejected energy of vinasse, and we propose the use of one distillation column, instead of three column distillation plants which are used for the production of pure ethanol. A method of high fermentation rate, for reduction of cost, is proposed, and the rejected yeast per day from Laval separators. is processed as an animal protein food (8 kg pressed yeast per 1001 spirit). The mass and energy balance is given and a cost analysis of spirit production in current prices. This cost is 25.0 Dr or $0.50 per 1 (1$ - 50 Dr).     

The production of crude oil and natural gas

This paper is directed at examining the impact of changing prices on the level of production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States. By using a cross-correlation test for unidirectional causality it is clearly demonstrated that, for both crude oil and natural gas, domestic production is affected by changing prices. The implications are clear. The decontrol of the price of crude oil and the deregulation of natural gas prices will lead to additional production in the near term.     

Exploring asymmetric behavior pattern from Indian oil products prices using NARDL and GHSOM approaches

The present work endeavors to explore the potential asymmetries in the pricing of oil products in India where prices are not only affected by the crude oil price changes in the international markets but are also subject to government interventions. In order to protect domestic consumers from this volatility, historically the government of India tried to control the domestic price of petroleum products by cross subsidization and giving subsidies. In this paper, we analyze the impact of crude oil price on domestic oil prices by applying nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and Growing Hierarchical Self-Organizing Map (GHSOM) approaches for the period of April, 2005–July, 2014. The GHSOM has been explored through pattern analysis on the asymmetric behavior using similarity measures. From the study it can be interpreted that the prices of products left to be determined by the market exhibit a strong asymmetry. However, pricing of the products that are monitored and controlled by the government do not exhibit any such asymmetry. Hence, the question still remains – should the government intervene in pricing petroleum products when monopolistic attitudes of large oil companies are detrimental to the interest of retail consumers?     

Market penetration of ethanol

This research examines in detail the technology and economics of substituting ethanol for gasoline. This endeavor examines three issues. First, the benefits of ethanol/gasoline blends are examined, and then the technical problems of large-scale implementation of ethanol. Second, ethanol production possibilities are examined in detail from a variety of feedstocks and technologies. The feedstocks are the starch/sugar crops and crop residues, while the technologies are corn wet mill, dry grind, and lignocellulosic fermentation. Examining in detail the production possibilities allows the researchers to identity the extent of technological change, production costs, byproducts, and GHG emissions. Finally, a U.S. agricultural model, FASOMGHG, is updated which predicts the market penetration of ethanol given technological progress, variety of technologies and feedstocks, market interactions, energy prices, and GHG prices.FASOMGHG has several interesting results. First, gasoline prices have a small expansionary impact on the U.S. ethanol industry. Both agricultural producers’ income and cost both increase with higher energy prices. If wholesale gasoline is $4 per gallon, the predicted ethanol market penetration attains 53% of U.S. gasoline consumption in 2030. Second, the corn wet mill remains an important industry for ethanol production, because this industry also produces corn oil, which could be converted to biodiesel. Third, GHG prices expand the ethanol industry. However, the GHG price expands the corn wet mill, but has an ambiguous impact on lignocellulosic ethanol. Feedstocks for lignocellulosic fermentation can also be burned with coal to generate electricity. Both industries are quite GHG efficient. Finally, U.S. government subsidies on biofuels have an expansionary impact on ethanol production, but may only increase market penetration by an additional 1% in 2030, which is approximately 6 billion gallons.