供应链网络社会责任风险传导研究

在构建基于核心企业多层供需供应链网络拓扑结构模型基础上,建立了社会责任风险在供应链网络中传导概念模型和数学模型,并通过对我国乳制品业实证分析验证了模型有效性。研究结果表明:供应链网络拓扑结构和节点自适应性导致风险在传导过程中不仅表现出传递性等一般特性,还具有转换性、反馈性、可控制性、非线性和复杂性等特性;供应链网络复杂性导致了供应链网络中社会责任风险涌现。     

Evaluation mechanism for structural robustness of supply chain considering disruption propagation

This paper aims to develop a novel evaluation mechanism for assessing the structural robustness of a supply chain considering disruption propagation. Disruption propagation means that the impact of risks propagates to the whole supply chain along the connected structure. Based on the propagation model, a structural robustness evaluation mechanism is devised by integrating two quantitative metrics, average path length and in degree-out degree. To validate the proposed mechanism, the result of the quantitative assessment of the structural robustness on random networks is compared with the probability of network disruption due to the random risk. From the results of the statistical verifications and sensitivity analysis, it can be said that the proposed mechanism is better at explaining the robustness of a supply chain. In other words, all components of a network, such as nodes and arcs, and their relationships should be considered altogether, in order to more accurately measure the robustness. It may be possible to apply the proposed mechanism to the very first step of designing the supply chain. Especially, in the case of it being hard to redesign a supply chain structure after practically launching and operating the designed network, the proposed mechanism may be utilised to verify whether the planned supply chain is robust to risks or not.     

Risks and performance in supply chain: the push effect

A risk, when it occurs, causes negative effects on outputs. Typically risks are not independent, as multiple risks occur simultaneously. These risks have links, creating a ‘push’ effect, thus increasing the severity of each and all risk(s) on outputs. This paper aims to verify the mechanism of the push effect that is a new approach in the supply chain risk management literature. In this study, two models were compared: (1) only exists in direct effects of risks on supply chain performance, i.e. the competitive model. The other, (2), contains relationships among risks that show the mechanism of the push effect, i.e. the hypothesised model. Empirical evidence found in the Vietnam construction sector proved that the hypothesised model is better suited and has greater effect on supply chain performance in terms of each and all risk(s). Comparing 55% variance of the competitive model, the hypothesised one can explain up to 73% variance of supply chain performance. These results confirm our hypotheses of the push effect. Furthermore, findings achieved from this research can be used as ‘a guideline’ for reducing the impact of this mechanism.     

Ripple effect modelling of supplier disruption: integrated Markov chain and dynamic Bayesian network approach

The ripple effect can occur when a supplier base disruption cannot be localised and consequently propagates downstream the supply chain (SC), adversely affecting performance. While stress-testing of SC designs and assessment of their vulnerability to disruptions in a single-echelon-single-event setting is desirable and indeed critical for some firms, modelling the ripple effect impact in multi-echelon-correlated-events systems is becoming increasingly important. Notably, ripple effect assessment in multi-stage SCs is particularly challenged by the need to consider both vulnerability and recoverability capabilities at individual firms in the network. We construct a new model based on integration of Discrete-Time Markov Chain (DTMC) and a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) to quantify the ripple effect. We use the DTMC to model the recovery and vulnerability of suppliers. The proposed DTMC model is then equalised with a DBN model in order to simulate the propagation behaviour of supplier disruption in the SC. Finally, we propose a metric that quantifies the ripple effect of supplier disruption on manufacturers in terms of total expected utility and service level. This ripple effect metric is applied to two case studies and analysed. The findings suggest that our model can be of value in uncovering latent high-risk paths in the SC, analysing the performance impact of both a disruption and its propagation, and prioritising contingency and recovery policies.     

Selection of risk mitigation strategy in electronic supply chains using grey theory and digraph-matrix approaches

Supply chains are becoming more lengthy and complex due to globalisation and vertical integrations. In this context, adopting proactive approaches is needed for dealing with changing risks and vulnerabilities for securing supply chain systems. Supply chain risks are interlinked and thus, one mitigation strategy can reduce many of other supply chain risks. For example, aggregate or pooling demand reduces forecast risks, capacity risks and inventory risks. Also, some of the risk mitigation strategies have negative influences over certain supply chain risks as adding capacity has a negative influence on capacity risks. Twelve major supply chain risk categories and 21 risk mitigation strategies with typical focus on electronics manufacturing supply chains have been identified. A combination of grey theory and digraph-matrix methodologies has been used for quantifying various supply chain risk mitigation strategies and this approach is not seen in literature till date. The proposed model was also tested taking a case study of an Indian electronics manufacturing company. Obtained results were also subject to sensitivity analysis. The net positive influence values of risk mitigation strategies proposed in this research could effectively be used by top management for ascertaining their risk mitigation strategies for better management of supply chains as a whole.     

Revealing interfaces of supply chain resilience and sustainability: a simulation study

Dynamics of structures and processes is one of the underlying challenges in supply chain management, where multiple dimensions of economic efficiency, risk management and sustainability are interconnected. One of the substantiated issues in supply chain dynamics is resilience. Resilience has a number of intersections with supply chain sustainability. This paper aims at analysing disruption propagation in the supply chain with consideration of sustainability factors in order to design resilient supply chain structure in regard to ripple effect mitigation and sustainability increase. Ripple effect in the supply chain occurs if a disruption at a supplier cannot be localised and cascades downstream impacting supply chain performance. This simulation-based study helps to identify what sustainability factors mitigate the ripple effect in the supply chain and what sustainability factors enhance this effect. The results indicate that (i) sustainable single sourcing enhances the ripple effect; (ii) facility fortification at major employers in regions mitigates the ripple effect and enhances sustainability; and (iii) a reduction in storage facilities in the supply chain downstream of a disruption-risky facility increases sustainability but causes the ripple effect.     

Supply chain risk modelling and mitigation

In today’s global competitive environment, supply chains are more susceptible to vulnerability due to the increasing occurrence of internal and external risk events. In addition, the trend associated with lean management, which involves reducing inventory, leads to more dependency of supply chain partners on each other which exacerbates risk exposure of companies in the supply chain. This creates the need for more effective management of supply chain risks. In this research, a methodology based on Bow-Tie analysis and optimisation techniques is proposed to quantify and mitigate supply chain risks. The proposed methodology takes into consideration risk interconnections, and it identifies the best combination of mitigation strategies under budget constraints. A real case study from a high-end server manufacturing environment is presented. Results from the case study showed that the proposed methodology for risk modelling and mitigation can effectively be used to quantify the risks and achieve the required risk reduction at minimum cost while considering risk correlations.     

Bottleneck identification in supply chain networks

In supply chain risk management, it is essential to identify firms that induce high losses due to supply chain disruptions in a focal firm or the supply chain network as a whole (bottlenecks). In this article, we describe supply chain networks as complex systems of firms and their suppliers. We revisit some established network measures and compare their predictions with a new methodology for detecting bottlenecks. In this bottom-up approach, production disruptions on the firm level are modelled with stochastic point processes, and a mechanism for the propagation of losses through the network is defined. The individual firms' emerging loss contributions to the total losses of the focal firm provide, then, an alternative risk-adjusted measure. Our methodology and findings enable more informed and transparent decisions to be made for optimal supply chain network design.     

A supply chain network equilibrium model for operational and opportunism risk mitigation

Risk management holds a crucial role in ensuring efficiency, predictability, and coherency in supply chain operations of an enterprise. Risks are associated with every member of a supply chain network. Thus, an end-to-end risk management approach is essential to fortify the entire supply chain network. In this paper, we consider a supply chain network consisting of suppliers, manufacturers, distributors and retailers, as the representative stakeholders. In particular, we take supply chain operational, and opportunism risks into account, and investigate the roles of flexibility, and social relationship, respectively, as a mitigation approach. We develop a multi-period network equilibrium model by considering the stakeholders’ objectives of maximising profit and minimising risk. Further, the finite-dimensional variational inequality formulations are derived for the underlying network optimisation problem. An algorithm, with nice features for computations, is then applied to three simulated examples in order to illustrate the model and computational procedure as well as the types of interventions that can help the strategic decision-makers to explore quantitatively the associated profits and incurred risks in an entire supply chain network.     

Supply chain risk management and its mitigation in a food industry

We create a model which analyses the various risks involved in a food supply chain with the help of interpretive structural modelling (ISM). The various types of risks were identified based on a review of the literature and in consultation with experts in the food industry. The types of risks are clustered into five categories and risk mitigation is discussed. The model developed is validated with the help of a case study involving a food products manufacturing firm.     

Supply chain risk classification: discussion and proposal

The supply chain management philosophy has often been used by organisations to achieve a competitive advantage, but it increases the vulnerability of these supply chains (SC) to certain risks. This dialogue between competitive advantage and risk generation has increased the number of studies related to the topic of ‘supply chain risk management’. Aiming to contribute to this field of research, a literature survey was conducted on 16 risk classifications, which included 56 risk types. These risk types were sorted according to existing conceptual similarities and then related to the five management processes intrinsic in a functional SC (plan, source, make, deliver and return), which are mainly advocated by the supply chain operations reference model. This literature review also highlights the lack of consensus among the surveyed authors concerning the risk types that affect a SC, a gap which this paper seeks to close by proposing a supply chain risk classification.     

Literature review on disruption recovery in the supply chain*

Recent research underlines the crucial role of disruption events and recovery policies in supply chains. Despite a wealth of literature on supply chain design with disruption considerations, to the best of our knowledge there is no survey on supply chain with disruptions and recovery considerations. We analyse state-of-the-art research streams on supply chain design and planning with both disruptions and recovery considerations with the aim of relating the existing quantitative methods to empirical research. The paper structures and classifies existing research streams and application areas of different quantitative methods subject to different disruption risks and recovery measures. We identify gaps in current research and delineate future research avenues. The results of this study are twofold: operations and supply chain managers can observe which quantitative tools are available for different application areas; on the other hand, limitations and future research needs for decision-support methods in supply chain risk management domains can be identified.     

Inventory performance of some supply chain inventory policies under impulse demands

This paper attempts to study the impact of impulsive demand disturbances on the inventory-based performance of some inventory control policies. The supply chain is modelled as a network of autonomous supply chain nodes. The customer places a constant demand except for a brief period of sudden and steep change in demand (called demand impulse). Under this setting, the behaviour of each inventory policy is analysed for inventory performance of each node. It is found that the independent decision-making by each node leads to a bullwhip effect in the supply chain whereby demand information is amplified and distorted. However, under a scenario where the retailer places a constant order irrespective of the end customer demand, the inventory variance was actually found to decrease along the supply chain. The variance of the inventory remained constant along the chain when only the actual demands are transmitted by each node. The results also showed that the inventory policy which is best for one supply chain node is generally less efficient from a supply chain perspective. Moreover, the policy which performs poorly for one node can be most efficient for the supply chain. In a way, our results also provide a case for coordinated inventory management in the supply chain where all members prepare a joint inventory management policy that is beneficial for all the supply chain nodes. The results have significant industrial implications.     

Entropy-based model for the ripple effect: managing environmental risks in supply chains

Due to increasing diversity and growing size of modern industrial supply chains, today problems of identification, assessment and mitigation of disruption risks become challenging goals of the supply chain risk management. In this paper, we focus on environmental (ecological) risks in supply chains which represent threats of adverse effects on living organisms, facilities and environment by effluents, emissions, wastes, resource depletion, etc. arising due to supply chain’s activities. Harmful environmental disruptions may ripple through the supply chain components like a wave. The paper presents the entropy-based optimisation model for reducing the supply chain model size and assessing the economic loss caused by the environmental risks subject to the ripple effect. A main advantage of the suggested entropy-based approach is that it permits to essentially simplify the hierarchical tree-like model of the supply chain, at the same time retaining the basic knowledge about main risk sources.     

Supply chain resilience for single and multiple sourcing in the presence of disruption risks

This paper investigates the use of sourcing strategies to achieve supply chain resilience under disruptions. The coping strategies considered are single and multiple sourcing, backup supplier contracts, spot purchasing, and collaboration and visibility. Collaboration and visibility, which affect suppliers’ recovery capabilities and a buyer’s warning capability, have not been similarly modelled in the past. A scenario-based mathematical model is developed such that it considers objectives under uncertainties including disruption risks and operational risks. A broad numerical study examines its output for various risk attitudes in a decision-maker, ranging from risk neutral to risk averse. The sensitivity of procurement strategies to other key parameters such as recovery and warning capabilities is examined. One of the major findings is that buyer’s warning capability plays a vital role in enhancing supply chain resilience. We seek to build on these efforts to further support disruption planning and mitigation and to obtain a deeper understanding of the relationship between supply chain characteristics and resilience.     

不确定条件下供应链期权契约风险分担模型

供应链期权契约是应对市场需求不确定性的一种重要途径,然而期权价格又给供应链带来了新的风险。针对供应链期权契约的风险分担问题,提出了根据谈判能力协商确定期权价格从而达到风险分担的方法。在市场不确定条件下,以单个制造商和单个零售商组成的供应链为研究对象,建立了基于谈判能力的供应链期权契约风险分担模型,分析了谈判能力对供应链订购量、生产安排以及期望收益的影响。研究发现,期权契约可以提高供应链各成员的期望收益,随着制造商谈判能力的增强,零售商的订单数量增加,期权数量减少,制造商的谈判能力降低了供应链的总期望收益。通过数值仿真分析,进一步验证了通过谈判分担期权契约风险的有效性,获得了对制定供应链期权价格具有指导意义的研究结论。      

供应链的风险识别框架及其柔性控制策略

一个供应链系统由供应商、内部供应链和零售商组成,在内生变量和外生变量的干扰下产生中断和延迟两种结果.根据因果分析法和分层分析法,建立一种识别框架,从六方面来识别供应链风险.而且,为了操控这些风险,有效的方法可从战略和战术的角度来考虑.战略上,有必要设计稳健的供应网络、加强供应链伙伴的信息共享和激励一致性的协作互信关系.在战术上,通过产能柔性、库存持有柔性、提前期柔性来建立柔性储备,可以减轻供应链的中断或延迟.     

Hybrid Petri-nets for modelling and performance evaluation of supply chains

Modelling and analysis of complex and co-ordinated supply chains is a crucial task due to its inherent complexity and uncertainty. Therefore, the current research direction is to devise an efficient modelling technique that maps the dynamics of a real life supply chain and assists industrial practitioners in evaluating and comparing their network with other competing networks. Here an effective modelling technique, the hybrid Petri-net, is proposed to efficiently handle the dynamic behaviour of the supply chain. This modelling methodology embeds two enticing features, i.e. cost and batch sizes, in deterministic and stochastic Petri-net for the modelling and performance evaluation of supply chain networks. The model is subsequently used for risk management to investigate the issues of supply chain vulnerability and risk that has become a major research subject in recent years. In the test bed, a simple productive supply chain and an industrial supply chain are modelled with fundamental inventory replenishment policy. Subsequently, its performance is evaluated along with the identification and assessment of risk factors using analytical and simulation techniques respectively. Thus, this paper presents a complete package for industrial practitioners to model, evaluate performance and manage risky events in a supply chain.     

Supply chain risk mitigation competency: an individual-level knowledge-based perspective

Supply chain managers are responsible for making decisions regarding supply chain risk in order to mitigate the impact of supply chain disruptions. This study develops and tests a theoretical model that leverages the individual-level knowledge-based view perspective to understand the process through which risk mitigation orientation of the supply chain manager contributes to his/her absorptive capacity. A supply chain manager’s absorptive capacity, in turn, enhances his/her ability to effectively mitigate supply chain risk. Study findings demonstrate that supply chain managers with high-risk mitigation orientation have greater level of absorptive capacity which enhances their risk mitigation competency. This study represents the first development and testing of a model that examines individual-level knowledge management factors that affect supply chain risk mitigation competency. This research emphasises the importance of the individual supply chain manager in managing risk and illustrates how theoretical perspectives from the knowledge management, supply chain risk and organisational behaviour literature can be fruitfully adopted to explain behaviour in the field of supply chain risk management.     

Quantifying risks in a supply chain through integration of fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS

Risk is inherent in almost every activity of supply chain management. With the ever-increasing push for efficiency, supply chains today are getting more and more risky. Adding to the difficulty of dealing with these risks is the amount of subjectivity and uncertainty involved. This makes analytical examination of the situation very difficult, especially as the amount of information available at a particular time is not sufficient for such an analysis. Thus a supply chain risk index, which captures the level of risk faced by a supply chain in a given situation, is the need of the hour. This study is an effort towards quantifying the risks in a supply chain and then consolidating the values into a comprehensive risk index. An integrated approach, with a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and a fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) as its important elements, has been used for this purpose. Fuzzy values in this study help in capturing the subjectivity of the situation with a final conversion to a crisp value which is much more comprehensible. A case study is used to illustrate the proposed methodology.