中国能源消费碳排放变化的影响因素分析——基于投入产出模型

从产业关联的角度出发,采用结构分解分析法(SDA)给出了中国能源消费碳排放的投入产出分析模型.基于投入产出模型,利用1997年、2002年、2005年、2007年的投入产出数据和能源消费数据,依据政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)给出的二氧化碳排放量的计算公式计算了各产业部门的碳排放量,并进而计算了各部门的直接碳排放强度,然后依据结构分解方法对中国能源消费碳排放的影响因素进行了详细的分解分析.研究结果发现:碳排放强度在1997 ～ 2002年和2005～2007年均有大幅度的降低,而在2002～2005年却有一个小幅上升.反映能源使用效率的部门直接碳排放强度系数和反映生产技术的完全需求系数是我国碳排放强度变化的两个最主要的影响因素.建议各行业各部门要用高新技术和先进适用技术改造和提升传统产业,加大投资结构调整力度,坚决淘汰落后产能,切实抑制低水平重复建设和高耗能产业的扩张,逐步加大对环保产业、新能源产业和高新技术产业的投资倾斜.     

CO2 emissions and mitigation potential in China’s ammonia industry

Significant pressure from increasing CO₂ emissions and energy consumption in China’s industrialization process has highlighted a need to understand and mitigate the sources of these emissions. Ammonia production, as one of the most important fundamental industries in China, represents those heavy industries that contribute largely to this sharp increasing trend. In the country with the largest population in the world, ammonia output has undergone fast growth spurred by increasing demand for fertilizer of food production since 1950s. However, various types of technologies implemented in the industry make ammonia plants in China operate with huge differences in both energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. With consideration of these unique features, this paper attempts to estimate the amount of CO₂ emission from China’s ammonia production, and analyze the potential for carbon mitigation in the industry. Based on the estimation, related policy implications and measures required to realize the potential for mitigation are also discussed.     

CO2 emissions in the global supply chains of services: An analysis based on a multi-regional input–output model

As the service sector dominates the economy in developed countries, its environmental impact has become an important issue. Based on a multi-regional input–output model, this paper estimates consumption-based emissions of service sectors of 41 countries and regions, and discusses the emission abatement policy of service sectors. The results indicate that consumption-based emissions of the service sector in most countries and regions are much greater than direct emissions generated by the service sector. Further decomposition by production sources demonstrates that final demand for services in certain countries causes substantial emissions in the other countries. In most countries, major parts of consumption-based emissions of the service sector come from upstream emissions in non-service sectors due to the intermediate consumption of non-service inputs in the service sector. For the US and China, the consumption-based emissions of their service sectors are traced back to different service consumption bundles and production sectors, which enable us to identify service categories and production sectors that play key roles in the impact of service sectors on CO₂ emissions. Finally, policy implications of the results are discussed for the climate effect of the service-oriented economy, global mitigation of climate change, sustainability, and the decarbonization of the service sector.     

“十二五”我国经济发展趋势及石油石化行业走势

"十二五"期间,全球经济增长模式和增长格局将继续调整,世界经济增长速度可能放缓,全球经济将寻求结构再平衡,若干国家将在新能源、节能减排、信息技术、物联网等领域形成新的战略优势,这对我国总体是机遇大于挑战。同期,我国还将处于工业化、城镇化加快发展阶段,国民经济仍具有持续平稳较快发展的基本条件。总体来说,经济增长速度会适度放缓,同时"调结构、促转型"将会取得实质性进展;需求结构进一步改善,内需、特别是消费对经济增长的拉动作用将明显增强;战略性新兴产业和生产性服务产业等现代产业将会加快发展,三次产业结构会进一步优化;两型社会建设将深入推进,节能减排降碳力度会进一步加大。"十二五"期间,世界石油石化工业生产和消费重心将继续东移,围绕着上游资源和下游产品的竞争将更加激烈,低碳经济与环境保护将成为行业焦点。我国能源消费将继续保持增长,但能源供求关系总体上趋于缓和。面对新的发展形势,我国石油石化企业应以石油和能源行业发展趋势及市场需求为导向,加快战略性结构调整;以技术创新和科学管理为重点,实现创新发展和内生增长;进一步夯实安全环保和节约发展基础,占领绿色发展的制高点;完善有利于科学发展的激励和考评机制。     

Analysis on energy intensive industries under Taiwan's climate change policy

This study addresses the planning and implementation of energy, industry, and carbon economy policies concerning the development of the Taiwan's energy intensive industries from perspective of climate change. As a newly industrialized country, Taiwan attaches greater importance to the development of green energy and low-carbon industries, in cooperation with global pressure for carbon reduction due to climate changes, through energy and industrial conferences. Thus, in the past year the Taiwanese government constructed four laws concerning energy and carbon reduction in order to drive the green energy industry; furthermore, it plans to reduce current carbon emission benchmarks. Nevertheless, statistical analysis found that in the last decade, energy intensive industries have presented structural unbalance regarding energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, energy intensity, contributions to the GDP, and product value. Industries in the industrial sector have high energy consumption, high carbon emissions, and increase total domestic consumption and carbon emissions, which have disproportionate contributions to industrial added value; nevertheless, the government continues to approve investments for such energy intensive industries, and results in continuous increases in energy consumption and carbon emissions. This contradictory phenomenon indicates that newly industrialized countries rely on a manufacturing economic structure, which is difficult to adjust and violates the trends of a global low-carbon economy. Hence, the government must examine and adjust such unbalanced industrial structures, where such adjustments are executed in a fair and just manner, and encourage the development of high value-added measures for low-carbon manufacturing and service sectors to become equal with competitors in a global economy.     

Regional difference and drivers in China's carbon emissions embodied in internal trade

To understand the impact of China's internal trade on China's carbon emissions, this article used the multi-regional input-output model to compare embodied carbon emissions based on production principle and consumption principle in the eight major economic regions of China. Besides, the SDA method was used to reveal the drivers of changes in CO₂ emissions. The study uses data from the 2007 and 2012 multi-regional input-output tables. The result shows that domestic demand emissions are the primary source of production-based emissions in China, but the proportion of external demand emissions is increasing rapidly. According to the structural decomposition of the embodied carbon emissions, it can be seen that the carbon emissions caused by the trade in intermediate products have always been a major component of external demand emissions. Further research indicates that the rapid growth in carbon emissions from the production and consumption side of the region is mainly attributed to the expansion of the final demand scale and changes in input structure of the production department. The most critical factor that restrains the increase in carbon emissions on both principles in all regions is the reduction of emission intensity in the production sector. The conclusion of this paper has important implications for how to coordinate inter-provincial trade and regionally balanced development under open economic conditions.     

Contributing to local policy making on GHG emission reduction through inventorying and attribution: A case study of Shenyang,China

Cities consumed 84% of commercial energy in China, which indicates cities should be the main areas for GHG emissions reduction. Our case study of Shenyang in this paper shows how a clear inventory analysis on GHG emissions at city level can help to identify the major industries and societal sectors for reduction efforts so as to facilitate low-carbon policy-making. The results showed total carbon emission in 2007 was 57 Mt CO₂ equivalents (CO₂e), of which 41 Mt CO₂e was in-boundary emissions and 16 Mt CO₂e was out-of-boundary emissions. The energy sector was dominant in the emission inventory, accounting for 93.1% of total emissions. Within energy sector, emissions from energy production industry, manufacturing and construction industry accounted for 88.4% of this sector. Our analysis showed that comparing with geographical boundary, setting system boundary based on single process standard could provide better information to decision makers for carbon emission reduction. After attributing electricity and heating consumption to final users, the resident and commercial sector became the largest emitter, accounting for 28.5% of total emissions. Spatial analysis of emissions showed that industrial districts such as Shenbei and Tiexi had the large potential to reduce their carbon emissions. Implications of results are finally discussed.     

China’s new growth pattern and its effect on energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions

China’s economic transformation and new growth pattern have significant implications for energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions. Using an extended version of a large computable general equilibrium model of China, we explore alternative futures for the Chinese economy and its energy needs over the period from 2015 to 2030. The simulation results show that encouraging household consumption and accelerating economic transition from investment-led to service-led growth will boost China’s economic growth. Capping coal consumption will improve China’s energy consumption structure and reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly. The simulation exercises imply that, with a well-designed policy, the Chinese government can meet the challenges of strong economic growth, lower carbon emissions, environmental benefits, and energy security. Moreover, the Chinese government’s goal of peaking carbon emissions at 2030 is achievable.     

The changing of the relationships between carbon footprints and final demand: Panel data evidence for 40 major countries

Global warming and environmental pollution have led many countries to begin to implement measures to reduce the use of fossil fuels. However, emissions reductions may have been reached because of the displacement of emissions intensive production. The objective of this study is to analyze the relationships between the emissions caused by countries from a demand point of view, the carbon footprints and the demand for goods and services in these countries, and especially in the European countries. With this aim, a two-step process was carried out. Firstly, carbon footprints were calculated during the 1995–2009 period. Secondly, the EKC hypothesis between these carbon footprints and the total final demands were tested by using panel data and a multilevel mixed-effects model. The results show that the EKC hypothesis is not supported when considering carbon footprints with respect to final demand. It is also shown that carbon footprints are slightly increasing with respect to final demand beyond proportionality. The carbon footprint elasticities are different between countries, their values increasing with the final demand per capita of countries.     

我国二氧化碳排放的特点、趋势及政策取向

改革开放以来。我国二氧化碳排放总量从1978年的148329×10^4t增加到2008年的689654×10^4t．年均增长5．3％。与此同时,二氧化碳排放强度总体上呈较快下降趋势,但1999年以后下降速度放缓。我国二氧化碳排放强度明显高于国际水平。分析其原因,从需求结构看是经济增长过度依赖出口：从产业结构看是由于过度依赖工业,尤其是重化工业：而以煤为主的能源资源结构和能源生产结构,直接导致我国单位能源使用排放的二氧化碳高于其他国家。我国2015年二氧化碳排放量预测值在82．28×10^8-90．508×10^8t之间,减排形势不容乐观。由于我国还处在工业化、城镇化加快发展阶段,在以煤为主的特定资源禀赋条件下,减缓二氧化碳排放的主要路径是减少能源消费,即节能。节能的主要着力点在于充分发挥政府和市场的作用,加快提高能源技术效率,包括深化能源产品定价机制改革;加强政府的社会性管制,使环境社会成本充分内部化;建立绿色税收体系,支持低碳经济发展;培育碳排放交易市场。     

Who shapes China's carbon intensity and how? A demand-side decomposition analysis

As national efforts to decouple carbon emissions from economic growth intensify, policymakers need more specific, sub-national information about the sources and reduction potentials of carbon intensity. This study presents a demand-side decomposition of China's carbon intensity to its regions, final demand types, and economic sectors, based on a predefined “aggregate embodied intensity (AEI)” indicator, i.e. the ratio of embodied emissions to embodied value added. We find that China's carbon intensity has been largely shaped by developed provinces, capital investment demand, and the construction sector. However, less-developed provinces, consumption demand, and the services sector have played increasingly important roles. Wealthy provinces generally experienced much lower AEIs and higher AEI reductions compared to poor provinces from 2007 to 2012, mainly owing to provincial differences in final demand structure and sectoral structure. Coastal region's emission reduction efforts at both production and demand sides were the main contributor to China's decrease in carbon intensity during the period, while interior region's structural degradation in demand partially offset the decrease. Our results suggest that allocating national carbon intensity targets based on AEI, and adjusting the final demand structure of central-western provinces, would greatly benefit for China to achieve its ambitious carbon intensity target by 2030.     

Methane emissions by Chinese economy: Inventory and embodiment analysis

Concrete inventories for methane emissions and associated embodied emissions in production, consumption, and international trade are presented in this paper for the mainland Chinese economy in 2007 with most recent availability of relevant environmental resources statistics and the input–output table. The total CH₄ emission by Chinese economy 2007 estimated as 39,592.70 Gg is equivalent to three quarters of China's CO₂ emission from fuel combustion by the global thermodynamic potentials, and even by the commonly referred lower IPCC global warming potentials is equivalent to one sixth of China's CO₂ emission from fuel combustion and greater than the CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion of many economically developed countries such as UK, Canada, and Germany. Agricultural activities and coal mining are the dominant direct emission sources, and the sector of Construction holds the top embodied emissions in both production and consumption. The emission embodied in gross capital formation is more than those in other components of final demand characterized by extensive investment and limited consumption. China is a net exporter of embodied CH₄ emissions with the emission embodied in exports of 14,021.80 Gg, in magnitude up to 35.42% of the total direct emission. China's exports of textile products, industrial raw materials, and primary machinery and equipment products have a significant impact on its net embodied emissions of international trade balance. Corresponding policy measures such as agricultural carbon-reduction strategies, coalbed methane recovery, export-oriented and low value added industry adjustment, and low carbon energy polices to methane emission mitigation are addressed.     

Driving forces of rapid CO2 emissions growth: A case of Korea

This study aims to investigate Korea's final demand structure and its impacts on CO₂ emissions in order to reduce CO₂ emissions and develop environmental policy directions. Based on the environmentally extended input–output model, this study adopts a two-step approach: (1) to estimate the embodied emissions and their intensities for 393 sectors induced by final demand; and (2) to calculate the driving factors of emission growth between 2003 and 2011 and then evaluate the result by using Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA). The findings of this study demonstrate that the impact of composition change in export with less embodied emission intensities tends to offset the increase in CO₂ emission by the export scale growth. The relatively low residential electricity price has resulted in the rapid growth of household electricity consumption and significantly contributed to emissions growth. The result of SDA indicates that Korea's final demand behavior yielded high carbonization over the same period. The findings suggest that Korean government should promote exports in industries with less embedded CO₂ in order to protect environments. In addition, emission information of each product and service should be provided for consumers to change their purchase patterns towards contributing to low carbon emissions as active players.     

China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective

Rapidly growing energy demand from China's transportation sector in the last two decades have raised concerns over national energy security, local air pollution, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and there is broad consensus that China's transportation sector will continue to grow in the coming decades. This paper explores the future development of China's transportation sector in terms of service demands, final energy consumption, and CO₂ emissions, and their interactions with global climate policy. This study develops a detailed China transportation energy model that is nested in an integrated assessment model—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)—to evaluate the long-term energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of China's transportation sector from a global perspective. The analysis suggests that, without major policy intervention, future transportation energy consumption and CO₂ emissions will continue to rapidly increase and the transportation sector will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Although carbon price policies may significantly reduce the sector's energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, the associated changes in service demands and modal split will be modest, particularly in the passenger transport sector. The analysis also suggests that it is more difficult to decarbonize the transportation sector than other sectors of the economy, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on petroleum products.     

Energy conservation and circular economy in China's process industries

Since energy consumption in process industries accounts for a great proportion of China's total energy consumption, energy conservation becomes the practical choice to reduce the conflict between energy demand and energy supply in China, and therefore, promoting energy conservation is the long-term solution to China's energy and environment problems from the source. In this paper, based on the introduction of the concept of energy consumption status in China's key energy-consuming process industries, the main technical bottlenecks and resource-environment problems were analyzed with special emphasis on energy utilization efficiency, energy consumption mode, and waste emission. As for the measures to resolve these problems, at the policy level, policies and programs of Chinese government related to energy conservation were introduced in combination with China's circular economy structure. At the technical level, the key technologies and research progress to improve energy utilization efficiency, reducing energy consumption, as well as utilizing the resource of discharged wastes were reviewed. Finally, three typical cases of the development of circular economy at three levels, namely the chemical industry, metallurgical industry, and electric power industry, were studied for the enforcement of circular economy and energy conservation in China's process industries.     

Allocation of sulphur dioxide allowance – An analysis based on a survey of power plants in Fujian province in China

The rapid growth of the Chinese economy has led to an acceleration of electricity demand, which has enjoyed an annual growth rate above 10% during the past 20 years. However, China’s coal-based resource endowment heavily influences its energy structure in the long term, which will result in more serious environment deterioration, and consequently threaten the sustainable development of China. As an effective pollution control policy that can reduce pollution at the lowest cost, emissions trading is one of the environmental policies that elicit the international interest. In addition, it is also an important economic tool to control sulphur dioxide (SO₂) emissions, which has been proved successful in meeting prescribed environmental goals at lower cost than traditional regulate approaches, and now is being pilot-test in China. Since the power industry accounts for more than half of China’s total coal consumption, emissions control in the power industry is the key to realize the emissions reduction objectives claimed in the “Eleventh Five-year Plan”. Based on an investigation of 14 power plants in Fujian province, this article compares four different allocation methods for sulphur dioxide allowance. The results indicate that the emissions performance method and production value method are the most suitable methods for Fujian power plants.     

Impacts of booming economic growth and urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions in Chinese megalopolises over 1985–2010: an index decomposition analysis

Given the booming economic growth and urbanization in China, cities have become crucial to sustaining this development and curbing national emissions. Understanding the key drivers underlying the rapid emissions growth is critical to providing local solutions for national climate targets. By using index decomposition analysis, we explore the factors contributing to the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Chinese megalopolises from 1985 to 2010. An additional decomposition analysis of the industry sector is performed because of its dominant contribution to the total emissions. The booming economy and expanding urban areas are the major drivers to the increasing CO₂ emissions in Chinese megalopolises over the examined period. The significant improvement in energy intensity is the primary factor for reducing CO₂ emissions, the declining trend of which, however, has been suspended or reversed since 2000. The decoupling effect of the adjustments in the economic structure only occurred in three megalopolises, namely, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), the Beijing-Tianjin-Heibei Megalopolis (BTJ), and the Pearl River Delta (PRD). In comparison, the impacts of urban density and carbon intensity are relatively marginal. The further disaggregated decomposition analysis in the industry sector shows that energy intensity improvements were widely achieved in 36 sub-industries in the PRD. The results also indicate the concentrations of energy-intensive industries in the PRD, posing a major challenge to local governments for a low-carbon economy. As economic growth and urbanization continue, reductions in energy intensity and clean energy therefore warrant much more policy attentions due to their crucial roles in reducing carbon emissions and satisfying the energy demand.     

广东省低碳发展的能源消耗与CO2排放分析

作为中国经济大省、人口大省和能源消费大省,广东省先行启动国家低碳省试点工作,率先开展碳交易市场建设试点。能源消费特征和CO2排放情况是低碳发展的基础,从广东省经济发展入手,分析了广东省终端能源消费及构成、单位GDP能耗和单位工业增加值能耗等能源消费特征,估算了广东省2005年至2010年的CO2排放量,并预测了广东省“十二五”期间的能源消费和CO2排放量,为节能减碳和国家低碳试点工作提供基础数据和决策依据。     

Future carbon dioxide emissions in the global material flow of primary aluminium

This study assesses the future carbon dioxide emissions in the global material flow of primary aluminium. The model of the global aluminium industry (GlobAl model) is used for scenario calculations. It simulates a market economy and allows an integrated analysis of the material flow and the corresponding carbon dioxide emissions. 1995 is the base year and the future horizon of the scenario calculations is 2010. The critical parameter ‘global demand for primary aluminium’ is varied. According to the scenario calculations, the absolute carbon dioxide emissions in the global material flow of primary energy will not increase until the growth rate of demand reaches 2% per year. World average specific emissions will decrease remarkably, especially due to the reduced energy-related emissions for smelting. There are three reasons for this. In the first place, the lower CO₂-emission factor of electricity generated from fossil fuels leads to reduced emissions. Secondly, modern point-feeder pre-baked plants need less electricity than the Soderberg plants they replace. And, thirdly, the production of primary aluminium is being shifted to regions in which the production of electricity is mainly based on hydropower.     

China's natural gas: Resources,production and its impacts

In order to achieve energy consumption targets, and subsequently reduce carbon emissions, China is working on energy strategies and policies aimed at actively increasing the consumption of natural gas—the lowest carbon energy of the fossil fuels, and to enhance the proportion of gas in total primary energy consumption. To do this, it is a necessary prerequisite that China must have access to adequate gas resources and production to meet demand. This paper shows that the availability of domestic gas resources are overestimated by China's authorities due to differences in classification and definitions of gas resources/reserves between China and those accepted internationally. Based on official gas resource figures, China's gas production remains low with respect to the projected demand, and will only be 164.6 bcm in 2020, far lower than the 375 bcm of forecast demand. The gap between gas production and demand will reach 210.4 bcm by 2020. Existing plans for the importation of gas and the development of unconventional gas will not close this gap in the next 10 years, and this situation will therefore present a severe challenge to China's gas security, achievement of targets in improving energy consumption structure and reducing carbon emissions.