基于RCM的地铁设备变权综合状态值的评价

将地铁设备划分为系统、子系统和子子系统三个层次,对各层次系统进行以可靠性为中心的维修(Reliability Centered Maintenance,RCM)分析,针对需要状态修的机械设备分别确定其状态值和权重,并提出了基于RCM的地铁设备变权综合状态值的评价方法。上海地铁某线路制动系统的应用表明,该评价方法为RCM的实施提供了可行途径,为地铁设备的维修决策提供了科学依据。     

A Modeling Approach to Maintenance Decisions Using Statistical Quality Control and Optimization

Maintenance concerns impact systems in every industry and effective maintenance policies are important tools. We present a methodology for maintenance decision making for deteriorating systems under conditions of uncertainty that integrates statistical quality control (SQC) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). We use simulation to develop realistic maintenance policies for real‐world environments. Specifically, we use SQC techniques to sample and represent real‐world systems. These techniques help define the observation distributions and structure for a POMDP. We propose a simulation methodology for integrating SQC and POMDPs in order to develop and valuate optimal maintenance policies as a function of process characteristics, system operating and maintenance costs. A two‐state machine replacement problem is used as an example of how the method can be applied. A simulation program developed using Visual Basic for Excel yields results on the optimal probability threshold and on the accuracy of the decisions as a function of the initial belief about the condition of the machine. This work lays a foundation for future research that will help bring maintenance decision models into practice. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

预知维修技术在发动机机加工设备管理中的应用

介绍了预知维修技术的原理和发展概况,并结合上海大众汽车有限公司发动机厂的应用实践,阐述了预知维修技术在发动机机加丁设备管理中的重要作用,指出预知维修的应用是设备管理的一大方向。     

Development of the Swedish bridge management system by introducing a LMS concept

The Swedish Road Administration (SRA) has developed an information technology (IT) based bridge and tunnel management system (BaTMan) that is widely implemented by the organisation. The system is a tool for operational, tactical and strategic management. However, this system does not include systems and tools for managing optimisation and long-term planning of␣Maintenance, Repair and Rehabilitation (MR&R) actions due to service life performance aspects. This paper discusses the need of service life performance analysis for sound optimisation and long-term planning of MR&R actions in the bridge management. The paper presents a service life performance analysis model that is based on a Markov chain model and the MEDIC method. The model is developed to manage different kinds of degradation characteristic and yet present a uniform result expressed in conditional probabilities. The paper discusses also the need of systems and tools for describing objects on both an overall level and on a component level.     

基于元动作单元的数控机床故障分级决策方法

为快速、准确地判断数控机床故障等级,避免出现花大代价处理次要故障,而关键故障却被忽略的情况,提出了一种以元动作单元为分析主体的数控机床故障分级决策方法。首先,为细化数控机床故障分析的粒度,使得分析过程更加简便,从系统功能分解的角度将数控机床按照“功能（function）-运动（motion）-动作（action）”逐层分解直至元动作层。其次,通过对分解过程进行分析,给出了元动作单元概念模型,明确了一个标准元动作单元需要包含的3类要素。然后,从动作的层面全面分析并总结元动作单元的故障模式类型。接着,定义了元动作单元故障模式的3个等级,按照评价指标对数控机床故障模式进行评价,再通过灰色聚类理论分析故障模式量化评价值,利用所得出的聚类结果建立了故障模式分级的原始决策表,随后通过粗糙集理论对原始决策表进行知识约简以使决策规则进一步简化,最终形成了一种能够快速、准确确定故障模式等级的决策方法。最后,通过对某数控机床齿条移动元动作单元的分析,验证了所提方法的合理性与有效性。实例分析结果表明使用该方法能够快速、准确地确定数控机床的故障模式等级,提高了决策效率,所得结论更加明确且具有针对性,可为后续的维修过程控制提供依据。研究结果能给相关企业确定数控机床故障等级提供有效指导,一定程度上优化企业维修资源的配置。     

Design and development of an intelligent context-aware decision support system for real-time monitoring of container terminal operations

This paper describes a case study of the research and development of an intelligent context-aware decision support system (ICADSS) prototype for real-time monitoring of container terminal operations in Hong Kong. We present the system design and development of the prototype system, and discuss the experiences and lessons learned. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first identifiable application of an intelligent context-aware decision support system for the real-time monitoring of container terminal operations reported in the academic literature. The intelligent context-aware decision support system employs ZigBee-based ubiquitous sensor network (USN) technology. In this study, an ICADSS prototype was built and implemented in a real world setting. The results of the system prototype evaluation are satisfactory and support the contention that it is more effective in supporting the real-time tracking and tracing of container trucks, quay cranes, and rubber-tired gantry cranes in a container terminal. The results also validate the practical viability of the proposed system architecture. Given the contextual details of the study, we present the lessons learned from developing and operating the system in a container terminal and provide suggestions for further research. We hope that the proposed system architecture and developed prototype system can help both practitioners and academics in the further use and research of intelligent context-aware decision support systems.     

A principled approach to the design of healthcare systems: Autonomy vs. governance

In this paper, we look at decision support for post-operative breast cancer care. Our main concerns are to support autonomy of decision making whilst maintaining the governance and reliability of the decision-making process. We describe the context of our work in the wider medical setting. We then present a set of decision support tools based on the situation calculus as a means of maintaining the integrity of rule bases underlying the decision-making system. The decision support system, Neptune, allows for the authoring, maintenance and delivery of decisions in a self-governing framework. Finally we discuss the implications of our work.     

Evaluation of sustainability using fuzzy association rules mining

Several technologies have been emerging for aiding the management of sustainability. Yet most of them are in development stages. The complex manufacturing systems necessitate the validation of flexible solutions using advanced managerial tools and techniques. This article reports the utilization of fuzzy association rule mining (FARM) approach which enables the decision makers to make flexible decisions for evaluating sustainability in the presence of attributes such as Cost, Market share performance, Profitability, Quality, Toxicity, Legislative factors, Social cohesion, Trade opportunities, and flexibility. The approach has been used for sustainability evaluation in an Indian rotary switches manufacturing organization. The experiences of the conduct of this research indicate that sustainability evaluation can be performed without constraints by the decision makers.     

Measuring the environmental performance of new products: an integrated approach

Environmental awareness and legislation are pushing manufacturers to introduce new ‘green’ products that, during their whole life cycle, have a low impact on the state of natural resources. Unfortunately, it is not completely clear how accounting information, physical measures and qualitative information, expressing the effects of each product development initiative, can be structured to support decision making. The paper is aimed at designing an integrated approach that takes both tangible and intangible effects into consideration and starting from the available information, suggests different decisional tools according to the decision maker's objective. In particular, at an earlier stage the paper defines an operating framework for the identification of significant evaluation criteria to support decision making on programmes aimed at introducing new ‘green’ products. At a later stage, the paper analyses whether different managers' environment related priorities require distinct types of data to be included in the selection procedure and hence suggest the most effective evaluation technique within different decisional contexts.     

Maintenance optimisation from a decision theoretical point of view

Maintenance optimisation is rarely discussed from a decision theoretical point of view. It is believed that maintenance programmes may benefit from using decision theory in a more formal manner. In decision theory there is a sharp line of demarcation between establishing requirements and preferences on one side, and methods for seeking an optimal solution in accordance with the requirements and preferences on the other side. We discuss requirements and preferences concerning maintenance, and how to model these by value and utility functions. Next we discuss how to choose the optimum set of maintenance actions. Influence diagrams are introduced to visualise the relation between maintenance actions, system characteristics and value functions. Finally an illustrative example is given.     

UTADIS方法在石油勘探风险评级中的应用

UTA(Utility Additive)方法是建立累积效用函数模型以进行多指标评价的序数回归方法,而石油勘探开发风险的评级是一个多指标综合评价问题,基于决策者的偏好,VTADIS(Utility Additives Discriminates)方法被用于风险评级模型的构建,为企业进行风险决策提供了方法上的依靠。     

Science and technology metrics for research policy evaluation: some insights from a Moroccan experience

If peer review has been and is continuing to be an acceptable approach for evaluation, Science and technology (S&T) metrics have been demonstrated to be a more accurate and objectively independent tools for evaluation. This article provides insights from an example of a relevant use of S&T metrics to assess a national research policy and subsequently universities achievements within this policy. One of the main findings were that just by setting S&T metrics as objective indicators there was an increasing research outputs: productivity, impact, and collaboration. However, overall productivity is still far low when brought to academic staff size and that a huge difference exists among universities achievements. The reliability of scientometric evaluation’s use as a performance tool is increasing in universities and the culture of this evaluation usefulness in research policy has widely spread. Surprisingly, this evaluation shows that even if S&T metrics have substantially increased, funds execution as means of rate of payment on total budget was less than 15 % due mainly to the high and unusual increase in funding allocations than was before the policy, a fact to which universities were managerially not well prepared. Finally, future evaluation should follow in the very short-term to quantify the impact extent of the policy revealed in this annual evaluation.     

Decision support for AIDS control programmes in Eastern Africa

The Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) constitutes the worst hazard to health care systems in Eastern Africa. Misallocation of scarce resources of AIDS Control Programmes will unavoidably lead to additional infections and casualties. The following paper discusses a system dynamics model which allows to assess the impact of different interventions on a pattern population in Eastern Africa. It becomes obvious that short- and long-term consequences of these programmes differ significantly. The optimal allocation of resources, therefore, is highly complex and calls for decision support systems to sustain AIDS control programmes.     

How does a collision warning system shape driver's brake response time? The influence of expectancy and automation complacency on real-life emergency braking

Brake Reaction Time (BRT) is an important parameter for road safety. Previous research has shown that drivers' expectations can impact RT when facing hazardous situations, but driving with advanced driver assistance systems, can change the way BRT are considered. The interaction with a collision warning system can help faster more efficient responses, but at the same time can require a monitoring task and evaluation process that may lead to automation complacency. The aims of the present study are to test in a real-life setting whether automation compliancy can be generated by a collision warning system and what component of expectancy can impact the different tasks involved in an assisted BRT process. More specifically four component of expectancy were investigated: presence/absence of anticipatory information, previous direct experience, reliability of the device, and predictability of the hazard determined by repeated use of the warning system. Results supply indication on perception time and mental elaboration of the collision warning system alerts. In particular reliable warning quickened the decision making process, misleading warnings generated automation complacency slowing visual search for hazard detection, lack of directed experienced slowed the overall response while unexpected failure of the device lead to inattentional blindness and potential pseudo-accidents with surprise obstacle intrusion.     

Implementing Evaluation of the Measurement Process in an Automotive Manufacturer: a Case Study

Reducing process variability is presently an area of much interest in manufacturing organizations. Programmes such as Six Sigma robustly link the financial performance of the organization to the degree of variability present in the processes and products of the organization. Data, and hence measurement processes, play an important part in driving such programmes and in making key manufacturing decisions. In many organizations, however, little thought is given to the quality of the data generated by such measurement processes. By using potentially flawed data in making fundamental manufacturing decisions, the quality of the decision‐making process is undermined and, potentially, significant costs are incurred. Research in this area is sparse and has concentrated on the technicalities of the methodologies available to assess measurement process capability. Little work has been done on how to operationalize such activities to give maximum benefit. From the perspective of one automotive company, this paper briefly reviews the approaches presently available to assess the quality of data and develops a practical approach, which is based on an existing technical methodology and incorporates simple continuous improvement tools within a framework which facilitates appropriate improvement actions for each process assessed. A case study demonstrates the framework and shows it to be sound, generalizable and highly supportive of continuous improvement goals. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于灰信息挖掘的视情维修决策方法研究

针对列装新设备缺乏状态劣化信息和维修阈值难以进行视情维修决策的问题,基于新旧设备故障率变化趋势的一致性,定义改进性系数表示基本故障率的变化不同,得到新型设备的故障率函数,结合回归支持向量机拟合新型设备风险度函数曲线,得到新型设备的维修阈值,进而建立新型设备的视情维修决策模型,最后以船用柴油机监测数据进行了实例验证。结果表明,该方法能有效挖掘旧型柴油机的历史数据信息,充分利用新旧柴油机之间的内在联系,为灰信息条件下新设备的视情维修决策提供了新途径。     

Decision support in nuclear emergencies

In a nuclear emergency, protective actions such as evacuation, sheltering and food bans can be taken to mitigate the consequences of any release of radioactivity. Within the RODOS project, an evaluation framework has been developed to support the assessment of the costs and benefits of potential actions. In order to help the decision makers gain insight into the decision problem and clarify their preferences, guidance can be given in three stages. First, the search of feasible portfolios of protective actions is seen as a constraint satisfaction problem; only those portfolios that satisfy constraints depending on factors such as feasibility are worth further evaluation. Second, the portfolios are ranked based on their consequences and the preferences of the decision makers using either a multi-attribute value or utility function. Third, a natural language report explaining the ranking is produced to help the decision makers gain insight into the decision problem and refine the decision parameters. An intelligent decision system has been developed to demonstrate the feasibility of the framework.     

Investing in lean manufacturing practices: an environmental and operational perspective

Lean manufacturing practices (LMPs) and corporate environmental sustainability are becoming inextricably linked. Throughout the lean and green debate, many organisations have recognised that LMPs have implications for their sustainable development and competitive positioning. Not only LMPs are complex on their own, but when perceived from an environmental sustainability perspective, the decision to implement an LMP can become even more intricate. Although general tools exist, the lack of effective decision-making tools to help in the implementation of LMPs with an environmental sustainability dimension is palpable. Thus, this study tackles the aforementioned decision problem by incorporating environmental and operational performance outcome expectations as these expectations are viewed in light of the ease of implementation of various LMPs. A novel multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model for evaluation of LMPs is developed in this respect. The model integrates a three-parameter interval grey number with rough set theory and the TODIM method. The model is run using empirical data from six manufacturing organisations. The findings facilitate the identification of a ‘locus of investments’ for a better selection of LMPs. The robustness of the decision support model developed is assessed through sensitivity analysis.     

Decision Support Systems: A Perspective for Industrial Engineers

This article describes a methodology by which Decision Support Systems can be better understood by the Industrial Engineer. For years the IE has been at the forefront of technological change in the industrial arena, leading management and decision makers of all kinds in the use of appropriate tools as aids in the decision making process. One such tool has been Information Systems. IE's, as with the use of other tools, have been at the forefront in their planning and use, albeit not in their development. While the information systems industry has evolved from a transaction processing orientation to full-scale computer-based information systems orientation there seems to be a reticence on the IE's part in bringing the full power of the computer into the realm of the decision maker. Although attempts have been made over the years to define a decision support system for the decision maker, the implementation of that technology has been slow and extremely limited in scope. The authors of this paper propose that the slowness to develop adequate decision systems is more of a symptom of poor understanding of the decision process rather than a lack of technological skill. This paper reviews, in a general sense, the decision process, the evolution of information systems as currently understood by Industrial Engineers, and the current efforts in the area of Decision Support Systems. An attempt is then made to chart a course for the future: a course for IE's to follow and a course in which Decision Support Systems can be expected to follow.