构建适应可再生能源资源特点的新型电力体系

从节能减排、重构能源供应体系出发,阐述了可再生能源在未来能源体系中的作用,分析了可再生能源发展面临的主要制约因素,提出构建适应可再生能源资源特点的新型电力系统主要措施,强调构建新型电力系统既要保障电力系统的安全可靠运行,又要充分发挥可再生新能源清洁环保的作用,推动能源体系由以石化能源为主向以可再生能源为主的转变。     

中国可再生能源发展路径研究

长期以来,中国能源结构以煤为主,可再生能源比重偏低,能源发展面临能源安全、环境污染、气候变化等诸多问题。未来较长时期,中国仍将处于工业化中期和城镇化加快发展的阶段,能源电力需求将持续增长。大力发展可再生能源是应对能源需求增长、优化能源结构和布局、实现清洁发展的关键举措。在分析中国可再生能源资源状况和中长期能源需求基础上,指出了未来中国可再生能源开发的目标、重点、时序和消纳市场,提出了加快可再生能源发展的措施与建议。     

德国新能源发电发展和运行研究

近年来,德国新能源发展迅猛,新能源发电量占比逐年提高。分析德国各类电源装机、发电量和发电小时数变化,揭示德国近十年来的能源转型历程。分析德国及其与周边国家联络线电量和电价的变化情况,研究新能源发展给德国电价带来的影响。通过典型周电力系统运行数据,分析德国电力系统应对新能源功率波动性的措施。德国新能源发展和运行实践表明,新能源优化运行和最大化消纳主要取决于灵活的电力现货市场机制、强有力的电源调节能力和坚强的跨国输电网络,同时,新能源的发展将对全社会电力生产成本和电价产生重大影响。     

力促大规模非水可再生能源发展

综述了我国能源与电力可持续发展的现状和未来,着重阐述了风力发电、光伏发电、太阳能热发电等可再生能源发电发展的主要特点和问题,最后建议加快规划与部署建设以可再生能源为主体的综合能源基地,积极构建我国能源可持续发展体系。     

基于环境外部性的风电经济性评价

中国实现经济可持续增长需要解决能源供应和环境约束问题。因此,促进可再生能源发展,是中国能源战略的一项重要内容。由于风力资源丰富性和风力发电相关技术比较成熟,近几年风电在中国获得快速发展,已成为继火电和水电之后的第三大电源。为了分析风电的竞争力问题,本文在考虑温室气体和污染气体环境外部性的条件下,对风电与煤电发电成本进行了比较。基于生命周期法等,得出在考虑环境外部成本情况下,风电每千瓦时综合成本只比煤电高0.02元。     

风能、光伏发电与储能

发展可再生能源对满足能源需求、减少环境污染和促进经济可持续发展具有重大意义.总结了全球风能、太阳能发电产业的发展:详细分析了中国风能和光伏发电的现状、市场分布和发展目标.储能是风能、光伏发电系统的重要组成部分,阐述了储能电源的技术要求,蓄电池储能仍是目前最成熟、最可靠的储能技术;风能、太阳能发电产业的高速发展将为储能电池和储能技术的发展带来新的市场和机会:开发新型储能电源和技术将成为今后电池业界的研究热点.     

Renewable energy credit driven wind power growth for system reliability

Environmental concerns over electric power generation from conventional sources has led to widespread public support for renewable energy sources. Governments throughout the world have responded by providing various forms of financial incentives to promote power generation from renewable energy sources. The rapid growth of wind power since the last decade has primarily been driven by governmental subsidies. Long-term growth of wind power should, however, be driven by sustainable market mechanisms. A potential solution is to recognize monetary values to the environmental benefits from renewable energy sources, and to specify targets for their growth. The environmental benefits from wind sources can be leveraged to allow market competition of these sources with the less costly conventional generating sources. A probabilistic method to evaluate the impact of renewable energy credit and wind penetration level on the cost and adequacy of power generating systems is presented in this paper. The technique incorporates reliability and economic analyses and is applied to a published test system to illustrate the results and their influence on key system variables. The paper provides useful information to system planners and policy makers on wind energy application in electric power systems.     

CO2 emissions,renewable energy and economic growth in the US

Given the great importance of achieving sustainable economic growth, however, it has been suggested that the replacement for fossil fuels by renewable energy sources can reduce environmental pollution. Renewable energy can decrease emissions caused by economic activities through increasing renewable energy consumption in energy-intensive-polluted sectors, and adopting environmental-friendly technologies in production. Therefore, this paper examines the linkages between energy-related CO2 emissions, economic growth, and renewable energy consumption for the 48 U.S. states over the period 1997–2017 by employing the panel ?xed-effects, the panel-corrected standard errors, the two-step Generalized Method of Moments, and the Method of Moments Quantile Regression with ?xed effects developed by Machado and Silva (2019). The results provide strong evidence of an inverted U-shaped relationship be-tween economic growth and environmental degradation, which known as the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Furthermore, this paper con?rms that renewable energy consumption, electricity prices, and primary energy prices have negative impact on emissions whereas Heating Degree Days have a positive impact on emissions. Moreover, the panel quantile regression models con?rm that the effects of all explanatory variables on CO2 emissions are heterogeneous at different quantiles. The ?ndings of this paper provide evidence of the environmental bene?ts of promoting in renewable energy and suggest policy tools to reduce emissions through energy price mechanisms.     

基于智能单粒子算法的微电网经济调度

为充分消纳可再生能源,以分时电价为杠杆,通过经济调度手段,对微电网内分布式发电资源进行优化配置。在综合考虑各类分布式电源发电成本和环境成本的基础上,计及热电联供收益、电能交易收益、电价补贴等多项运行收益,建立微电网多目标经济函数。考虑储能系统在不同时间断面上的耦合性问题以及时移特性,结合分时电价、净负荷曲线进行预调度。考虑微电网实时调度的快速性要求,运用智能单粒子算法搜索调度变量的最优解,并与常规粒子群算法进行对比。算例分析了基于冬季典型日数据的微电网调度方案和各项经济指标,结果表明微电网调度模型、调度策略和优化算法合理有效。     

Optimization of Lebanon's power generation scenarios to meet the electricity demand by 2030

Presently, Lebanon provides 95 % of the primary energy electricity power generation by using fuel-oil used in thermal power plants. To meet the population needs, private generators are also used in all the country and they represent the third of total electricity production. The challenges over the future development of the Lebanese electric sector are economic and environmental. This is why currently, the energy policy makers aim to diversify the national electricity generation mix in the energy planning strategy and to introduce low-carbon technologies. The complexity of these challenges in the particular Lebanese context has motivated our study which aims to recommend policies to develop the optimal electricity generation scenario by 2030. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate different scenarios reflecting different combinations of technologies by 2030. This is achieved by using an excel tool “Excel Solver Optimization Calculator” which makes possible the interaction of various inputs to produce a least-cost generation mix. The main results focus on the least-cost electricity generation portfolio, total investment required to generate electricity, level of energy independence and carbon emissions. Many policy choices could be feasible and very advantageous for Lebanon if renewable energies are deployed massively. However, this requires policies that support the massive use of renewable energy technologies in the mix.     

可再生能源配额的优化配置模型

为了建立科学合理的可再生能源总量目标模型,制定切实可行的指标分解方案,深入分析了典型国家制定可再生能源发展目标及配额指标的经验,结合中国国情和可再生能源发展现状,构建了可再生能源电力总量目标预测模型及基于可再生能源潜力和消费的配额指标分解模型。选取2015年作为规划年,对中国可再生能源电力配额方案进行了深入探讨,并从环境效益和社会成本进行经济性评价。研究结果表明,中国在制定可再生能源电力配额指标时,应采取自上而下的分解方法,综合考虑非化石能源消费结构、CO2减排目标、国民生产总值（gross national product,GDP）增长、电力需求及电网能力对配额比例的影响。     

促进新能源消纳的电力交易偏差结算补偿机制

随着新能源参与市场交易的比例不断扩大,由于其波动性强、预测准确度低等特性,引起新能源电厂基数电量分配不均、合同电量滚动到年底仍无法结算等问题,使得设计新能源电厂参与电力市场交易偏差结算机制尤为关键。文中立足新能源参与电力交易现状,提出新能源替代利益补偿办法。首先,基于结算日新能源电厂实际发电量减去事前合同电量,按机组装机容量确定基数电量。然后,针对市场中各电厂参与交易的电量和电价,确定新能源电厂结算综合单价,核定超发电厂对少发电厂的经济补偿。最后,通过具体算例得出该方法可以使得市场份额高的电厂获得高利润,同时,按月结算电费保证了交易合同的执行力。     

Exploring the cost implications of increased renewable energy for the U.S. power system

Over the last decade, the fraction of annual U.S. electricity generation for renewable energy has doubled from 10 % to 20 %. This growth has been driven by several factors, including technology cost reductions and policy support. The share of renewable generation is projected to increase over time. Reference case scenarios from four different organizations show least-cost U.S. electricity buildouts with renewable energy generation fractions of 31–36 % by 2030 and 40–65 % by 2050. Using a capacity expansion modeling tool, we investigate how changing the amount of renewable energy from the least-cost solution impacts the cost of building and operating the electricity system. The relationship between system cost and renewable energy generation fraction is non-linear. Small deviations near the least-cost solution have minimal cost impacts (changing the renewable energy penetration by +/- 5% results in system cost changes of less than 1%), while similar deviations that are farther from the least-cost solution can result in large cost changes. Increased levels of RE lead to lower absolute emissions, and we evaluate the trade-offs between emissions savings and system costs for higher and lower levels of RE penetration.     

促进我国可再生能源电力发展的政策框架研究

在对世界各国的可再生能源政策体制和实践进行综合分析的基础上,结合我国的国情、法律体系、可再生能源发展状况以及我国电力工业发展与电力体制改革进程,分析各种促进可再生能源产业政策在我国的可行性,提出中国可再生能源发展分3步走的规划方案,初步分析各步骤之间的合理衔接,为我国制定和完善可再生能源政策提供借鉴。     

Progress of renewable electricity replacing fossil fuels

Dramatic fall in costs of renewable energy in the last 24 months has not only accelerated the replacement of fossil fuels by renewable energy in electricity generation. The low cost renewable electricity is now starting to replace fossil fuels in other sectors. One reason is that renewable electricity is now cheaper per unit energy than oil, about the same price as fossil methan but, still, more expensive than coal. Another reason is that electricity often offer other opportunities, such as cheaper transport, better control, higher energy efficiency in final production of energy services and lower local environmental costs.     

国外低碳电力系统发展现状及经验启示

目前世界各国高度重视低碳发展,电力系统包含一次能源向二次能源的转换及输配和使用,其低碳发展备受瞩目。建设低碳电力系统,不仅要实现现有化石燃料发电机组的减排,从长远来看,还要以可再生能源等清洁能源为主要依托实现电力系统的低碳发展。我国可再生能源并网发电面临诸多问题,因此,文章选取了几个低碳电源发电量超过本国电量70%的国家进行分析,并结合我国新能源和可再生能源并网发电实情提出适用的低碳发展战略。     

能源与经济增长的关系研究

遵循能源投入数量与经济增长的双向因果关系,基于索罗增长模型和最优理论,研究了经济平衡增长的条件,建立了一个知识外生的经济平衡增长模型,该模型包含厂商、不可再生能源生产部门、可再生能源生产部门、政府和家庭。研究结论表明,经济增长和能源投入数量均衡的条件是单位有效劳动的能源量增长率为0。基于研究结论,从加大节能减排力度和加大资源税的征收力度等角度提出了政策建议。     

基于系统动力学模型的可再生能源消纳保障机制效果模拟

为了研究我国当前可再生能源消纳保障机制与电力市场的协同关系,构建了关于消纳量市场与可再生能源电力市场的系统动力学模型,分析了给定条件下不同消纳量权重制定方案对消纳量市场、可再生能源装机增长以及市场电价的影响。以云南省非水可再生能源为算例的模拟研究表明,可再生能源消纳保障机制实施以后,非水可再生能源消纳量市场及电量市场对不同的政策情景反应不同,但可再生能源消纳量和电量的价格都能够在经历一定时期的波动后回复到平衡状态,使可再生能源装机增长率维持稳定,推动可再生能源装机容量的提升。     

Measuring the cost of renewable energy in Germany

Electricity generation from renewable energy is increasing globally. However, in most electricity systems this growth comes at a price in the form of increased costs. This paper quantifies the costs for renewable energy installations built in Germany between 2000 and 2011. Our analysis sheds light on the ‘Energiewende’ in Germany, which is a front runner in the worldwide renewables rollout. To evaluate cost, benefits and policy instruments, the methodology can also be applied to other countries.     

现货市场新能源参与方式及其对市场出清价格的影响分析

在我国新一轮电力市场改革背景下,电力现货市场建设进程进一步加快。随着新能源装机的快速增长,将会对电力现货市场竞价交易带来很大影响。基于我国试点运行的现货交易机制,对现行几种新能源参与市场模式进行了分析并提出了适用于新能源快速发展阶段的市场参与机制。建立了包含新能源参与的省级日前市场机组组合模型和实时市场安全经济调度模型。基于某省级电力市场实际运行数据,分析了新能源参与现货市场的不同方式对市场出清价格的影响,讨论了不同新能源渗透率条件下的市场运行结果,为省级现货市场建设提供了参考。