世界风力发电现状与前景预测

全球可再生能源发电装机容量中风电占有压倒性优势,今后可望成为欧洲、亚洲、北美的主要电力来源.2011年中国以62GW的累计装机容量蝉联世界第一,按照我国“十二五”规划目标,预计到2015年风电装机容量将达到1×108kW,年发电量1900×108kW·h.GWEC和Greenpeace预测,今后20年风力发电将成为世界主力电源,2030年装机容量有可能达到23×108kW,可供应世界电力需求的22％.欧美正大力开发海上风电产业.欧洲是世界海上风电发展的先驱和产业中心,欧洲企业不仅拥有自己的核心技术,而且还向世界各地输出技术,今后欧洲海上风力发电将急速增长.美国采取与英国、德国等欧洲厂家相同的战略,大力发展海上风力发电.我国海上风电产业刚刚起步,预计2015年海上风电装机500×104kW.日本学者大岛教授推算了不同电源的发电成本:包括政府财政补贴,运行年限30年的核电站发电成本为12.06日元/(kW·h);按标准设备利用率,风力发电成本11.30日元/(kW·h),与核电相比已经有竞争力.假设风况好时设备利用率达到35％,发电成本为7.95日元/(kW·h),比核电低得多.     

Focus on the development of offshore wind power in China: Has the golden period come?

In recent years, Chinese Government paid more attention to the exploitation of offshore wind power, and it became an important trend in the development of wind power industry. However, the development of offshore wind power in China was still in the initial stage. Compared with land-based wind power, the development of off-shore wind power had not only weaknesses and uncertainties, but also strengths and opportunities. In order to research the development of offshore wind power, this paper summarized the aspects on policy, market, technology and development planning of offshore wind power in China, and then adopted SWOT method to analyze the influencing factors, which impact on the development of China's offshore wind power. At last, this article analyzed the internal and external factors that affect the golden period of offshore wind power development, and drew a conclusion that the golden period of offshore wind power in China will come in the future, and most likely around 2020.     

Analysis of wind power generation operation management risk in China

The Chinese government has made an important effort to diversify the country's energy mix and exploit different sources of renewable energy. Although China's installed wind power capacity has undergone a dramatic expansion over the past six years, the electricity generated from wind power has not increased as expected. Meanwhile, operational risks, such as high generation cost, mismatch between capacity and generation, intermittent wind power generation, power grid construction lag, deficient policy, and operation mechanism, have become increasingly prominent. If not controlled, these risks will negatively affect wind power development in China. Therefore, this paper established a quantitative analysis model of wind power operation management risk from two aspects, feed-in tariff and grid electricity (electricity being connected to the grid), based on an analysis of wind power operation management risk in China. Moreover, this study quantitatively assessed the risk of the operational management of a wind farm in Inner Mongolia. Finally, corresponding risk control strategies for the healthy development of wind power generation in China were proposed.     

风力资源利用与新能源产业发展——基于玉门市产业转型和新能源基地建设考察

由于能源供应紧张和气候变化等因素影响,风力资源利用正受到全球性的广泛关注和热情实践。2009年全球风电装机容量新增3750×104kW,总装机容量达到1.58×108kW,同比增长31%;预计2020年全球风电装机将达到12.31×108kW,年装机达到1.5×108kW,风力发电量将占全球发电总量的12%。至2009年,中国风电装机容量累计达2600×104kW,预计到2020年风电占全国电力总装机容量的比例将达到10%左右。发展以风电、光电等可再生能源为主的新能源产业,是应对金融危机的有效途径,同时也是能源结构调整的必然选择。玉门市可供开发利用的风能资源储量在2000×104kW以上,全国首座千万千瓦级风电基地一期工程已在玉门开工奠基,为建设风、光、火、核互补的新能源基地创造了有利条件,但同时调峰电源、输出电网、电量消纳等问题也制约着其风电产业的健康快速发展。从全国情况看,存在风电产业成长与电网建设不协调、风电技术研发和设备制造能力不强、配套政策不完善等问题。建议国家应强化政策支持,把风电及其配套产业纳入国民经济发展规划统筹考虑,加大对技术研发的支持力度。     

我国发展风电产业的战略性分析

近年来,我国风电产业发展突飞猛进,风机产量和风场装机总容量连年全球第一。然而,伴随着风场风机重大质量事故频发、大规模脱网事故频发、以及风电上网难、"弃风"严重等问题的出现,风电制造企业亏损裁员,风电产业发展前途成为问题。从能源持续发展、环保和碳减排、均衡区域发展、履行国际义务等角度,分析了风电的比较优势,阐明了风电产业长远发展的战略意义。     

2009年世界风能报告

叙述了2009年全球风能产业发展背景、趋势以及发展风能电力为经济、社会和环境带来的效益,分析了2001年来世界风场增长容量的增长率以及世界各大洲风电场的分布,指出,2009年中国和美国领先于世界风力市场,提出,到2020年底,全球风机总装机容量至少达到190×104MW的预测。     

Effective policies for renewable energy—the example of China's wind power—lessons for China's photovoltaic power

China, one of the global biggest emitter of CO₂, needs promotion renewable energy to reduce air pollution from its surging fossil fuel use, and to increase its energy supply security. Renewable energy in its infancy needs policy support and market cultivation. Wind power installed capacity has boomed in recent year in China, as a series of effective support policies were adopted. In this paper, I review the main renewable energy policies regarding to China's wind power, including the Wind Power Concession Program, Renewable Energy Law, and a couple of additional laws and regulations. Such policies have effectively reduced the cost of wind power installed capacity, stimulated the localization of wind power manufacture, and driven the company investment in wind power. China is success in wind power installed capacity, however, success in wind-generated electricity has yet achieved, mainly due to the backward grid system and lack of quota system. The paper ends with the recommended best practice of the China's wind power installed capacity might be transferable to China's photovoltaic power generation.     

对我国风电发展战略的冷思考

我国风电发展迅速,计划2010年风电装机容量要达到3500×10^4kW,2020年达到1.5×10^8kW。据IEA预测,2030年世界能源供应仍以化石能源为主,其比重由2006年的80.8%下降到80.4%;2030年世界发电能源结构也以化石能源发电为主,其比重由2006年的74%下降到73%。中国到21世纪中叶传统化石能源仍将居绝对优势地位。因此在可再生能源和新能源的开发过程中,不要急于求成,片面追求能源和电源结构优化不可取。我国未来要依靠核电和新能源发电,但需要通过对其技术经济的进一步研究,才能确定主要靠核电还是风电、太阳能发电或生物质能发电。目前我国风电发展的主要问题是对风电的技术要求起点低,技术路线不对,从国外引进了落后的风电技术。为了我国风电的健康发展,必须加快风电合理利用的研究,包括风电储能和风电直接利用的研究。     

基于层次分析法(AHP)的风电产业发展影响因素探析——以甘肃省酒泉风力发电基地为例

以甘肃酒泉的风电产业为例,从政治、经济、技术、社会4个方面着手,利用层次分析法对风电产业发展的影响因素进行探析,并将该方法应用于具体风电工程项目后评估,为构建风电产业发展评价指标体系提供理论参考,同时为促进我国风电产业的发展具有一定的应用价值和实践意义。研究结果表明：准则层的影响因素指标体系中最主要的因素是技术层面,其次是经济层面,社会层面属于次要因素,而政治层面所占的权重最小;方案层的主要影响因素为专业型人才、电网技术、法律法规、发电成本。在此基础上,基于评价结果,结合甘肃酒泉风电发展现状和我国风电产业发展的国情,提出了促进风电产业发展的对策和建议。     

Review of wind power tariff policies in China

In the past 20 years, China has paid significant attention to wind power. Onshore wind power in China has experienced tremendous growth since 2005, and offshore wind power development has been on-going since 2009. In 2010, with a total installed wind power capacity of 41.8 GW, China surpassed the U.S. as the country with the biggest wind power capacity in the world. By comparing the wind power situations of three typical countries, Germany, Spain, and Denmark, this paper provides a comprehensive evaluation and insights into the prospects of China’s wind power development. The analysis is carried out in four aspects including technology, wind resources, administration and time/space frame. We conclude that both German and Spanish have been growing rapidly in onshore capacity since policy improvements were made. In Denmark, large financial subsidies flow to foreign markets with power exports, creating inverse cost-benefit ratios. Incentives are in place for German and Danish offshore wind power, while China will have to remove institutional barriers to enable a leap in wind power development. In China, cross-subsidies are provided from thermal power (coal-fired power generation) in order to limit thermal power while encouraging wind power. However, the mass installation of wind power capacity completely relies on power subsidies. Furthermore, our study illustrates that capacity growth should not be the only consideration for wind power development. It is more important to do a comprehensive evaluation of multi-sectorial efforts in order to achieve long-term development.     

英国海上风电发展模式及借鉴意义

英国具有丰富的海上风能资源,经过10余年的发展,英国已经成为世界海上风电第一大国,海上风电装机容量超过全球海上风电装机总量的一半,目前英国是全球海上风电发展最为成熟的国家.本文回顾了英国海上风电的发展历程,研究了英国促进海上风电发展的政策支持体系,以及技术发展路线和特点,并由此提出我国可借鉴英国海上风电发展的成功经验,加快推动海上风电发展.     

Wind energy in China: Current scenario and future perspectives

Wind power in China registered a record level of expansion recently, and has doubled its total capacity every year since 2004. Many experts believe that China will be central to the future of the global wind energy market. Consequently, the growth pattern of wind power in China may be crucial to the further development of the global wind market. This paper firstly presented an overview of wind energy potential in China and reviewed the national wind power development course in detail. Based on the installed wind capacity in China over the past 18 years and the technical potential of wind energy resources, the growth pattern was modeled in this study for the purpose of prospect analysis, in order to obtain projections concerning the development potential. The future perspectives of wind energy development in China are predicted and analyzed. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the current status of wind power in China and some insights into the prospects of China's wind power market, which is emerging as a new superpower in the global wind industry.     

Offshore wind development in China and its future with the existing renewable policy

Based on independent studies, this paper focuses on the significant discrepancy of 15 GW between the installed onshore wind generation capacity and what has been actually connected to the power network to reveal the challenges in meeting the Chinese renewable energy target. The recent accidents in Chinese North-Western transmission network (in February–April, 2011) demonstrated the urgent need for a fundamental review of the Chinese renewable energy policy. Offshore wind has been identified as the most feasible alternative to onshore wind to help deliver electricity to Eastern China during the summer peak time. By investigating and summarizing first hand experiences of participation in the Chinese renewable market, the authors provide the economic figures of the first cohort of Chinese offshore wind schemes. Large state owned enterprises (SOE) are dominating the offshore wind development, repeating their previous practices on the land. While this paper acknowledges the critical role of offshore wind generation in meeting Chinese renewable energy targets, it envisages an installed offshore capacity of approximately 2000 MW by 2015, much less than the 10000 MW governmental estimation, which can be attributed to the lack of detailed energy policy, network constraints, offshore wind installation difficulties and quality issues in the manufacture of turbines.     

国内外风电持续迅猛发展

国外统计数据表明,近几年世界风电持续高速发展。据国内统计数据,我国2006年、2007年风电装机容量连续两年翻番。我国内资风电设备制造企业已形成3个梯队,2007年我国内资风电设备制造企业所占市场份额首次超过外资企业。介绍了我国风能资源的最新评估,在假设条件下,全国陆上风能可开发资源量为8×10^8kW,近海为1．5×10^8kw：陆上和近海合计可提供风电电量约为2×10^12kW·h。预计我国风电装机容量2010年和2020年只有分别达到2000×10^4kW和1×10^8kw时才能实现非水电可再生能源发电量的强制性市场份额目标。     

中欧海上风电产业发展比较

相对于陆地风能,海上风能资源丰富,发电产能大,海上风电将是最有可能大规模发展的能源资源之一。欧洲是世界发展海上风力发电的先驱,从1991年至2009年,欧洲建设完成并投入运营的共有38个海上风电场,装机容量达到2056MW,其中一半以上的海上风电场是近5年建成的。欧洲海上风电产业拥有先进的核心技术,海上风电场正朝着大规模、深水化、离岸化方向发展,目前正处于示范阶段向商业扩展阶段的过渡时期。而我国虽然拥有丰富的海上风能资源,但海上风电产业的发展却比较缓慢,目前还处于研发阶段和示范阶段的过渡期,海上风电技术仍然面临着核心技术缺失、行业标准混乱、研发能力不足等问题。我国海上风电产业发展面临的主要问题包括:缺乏统筹;产能过剩、质量不高;难以盈利;缺少标准、无法推广等。为促进我国海上风电产业的发展,政府应进一步细化海上风能开发的有关规定,完善政策体系,统筹产业发展,采取多种措施推进政策具体落实;充分发挥市场作用,构建海上风电产品认证检测体系;提升核心技术含量,提高产品技术水平和工艺水平;加快培养专业人才。     

Constraints on the effective utilization of wind power in China: An illustration from the northeast China grid

Even though China's wind power industry has experienced a rapid growth since the beginning of this century, the utilization of wind power is still worrisome. In 2010, about 30% of China's total installed capacity could not get access to the grid. And about 10% of China's total wind power generation was curtailed. The problem of wind power curtailment is more prominent in Northeast-China region. The main particularity of Northeast China Grid is as follows: during the long heating period in winter, combined heat and power thermal plants need to modify the turbine generator's output to meet the heating demand and thus the thermal power peak regulation capacity is reduced, as a result the barriers of wind power consumption are increased. This paper provides a new perspective of the constraints on the effective utilization of wind power in the Northeast China Grid. We argue that there are two categories of constrained factors: structural factor and operational factor. The former includes grid structure, wind source structure, power source structure, and market structure. The latter includes power price mechanism, dispatch mode arrangement, wind power integration codes, and wind power forecast. At last, we make policy recommendations: promote the coordination between wind farm investment and grid construction, strengthen interprovincial power trade mechanism, implement flexible pricing mechanisms as well as improve current dispatch mode, etc.     

Hydropower in China at present and its further development

At present, China's economic development faces energy challenge, and the appropriate solution of energy bottleneck is the key to healthy, rapid and sustainable development. China's gross amount of hydraulic resource ranks first in the world; however, because of low level of development, hydraulic resource has a broad development prospect. Now, China's hydropower development is in its peak period. By the end of 2004, the gross installed hydropower capacity of China broke through 100 million kW. From there, it has remained in the top slot worldwide. The vigorous development of hydropower is necessary because of the energy shortage and environmental pollution in China in order to attain sustainable development of China's economy. Abundant hydraulic resource, huge market demands, the strategy of western development and the favorable environment of economic development provide hydropower construction with unprecedented advantages and opportunities. Chins hydropower development aims at an installed hydropower capacity of up to 194 million kW by 2010, accounting for 23.1% of the gross installed power capacity and 35% of hydropower resource. Finally, we present the general condition of Three Gorges project as well as the new mode of hydropower development of Three Gorges Project Corporation, i.e., cascade development.     

A novel optimization model for combined wind power accommodation and electric boiler with thermal storage

As the installed capacity of wind power continues to increase, the problem of curtailed wind power is becoming serious in China, especially in the northern region during the winter heating season. To solve the problem of wind‐heat conflict during the heating period in the Three North area, an electric boiler with thermal storage (EBTS) is installed at the end of the grid where wind power is difficult to accommodate and using curtailed wind power to supply heat promotes local accommodation. In this paper, a multi‐objective optimization model of wind power accommodation based on the wind power–EBTS system for heating is established. The goals of maximizing wind power accommodation, minimizing the number of times EBTS must be adjusted, and minimizing operating costs are presented, and a bi‐level optimization scheme is designed. An improved multi‐objective particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to solve these functions, and an optimal compromise solution from the generated Pareto solution set is filtered using the fuzzy membership method. Based on actual data from a demonstration project in China's Jilin Province, the simulation results verify that this method can effectively reduce operating costs and improve wind power accommodation.     

中国风电发展目标分析与展望

我国风能资源合理开发利用和风电产业健康发展需要科学合理可行的发展目标做引导。本文提出了制定风电发展目标的基本原则与出发点,对现有的国家风电发展目标做了分析,认为国家规划的风电目标过低,已建和在建风电项目装机容量比到2010年的国家规划目标翻了一番,各省风电规划目标高低不一,总体偏高,且有目标攀比现象。进而采用累加值法、本地增长率法、类比增长率法、GM(1,1)模型法等多方法预测得到我国风电发展的科学目标,即到2010年我国风电装机容量达到1633万kW,到2015年达到4172万kW,到2020年达到10021万kW,占全国同期电力总装机容量的8.35%。预测趋势表明,我国风电正在进入加速发展阶段,到2020年我国风电装机容量将占到全球风电总装机容量的8.15%,风电发展将实现由风能资源大国向风电市场和产业强国的转变。     

Offshore wind energy in the world context

The interest for the exploitation of the offshore wind energy is growing in Europe, where man land use is very high resulting in strong limitation to the installation of onshore wind farms. The today offshore operating wind power is 12 MW, with two wind farms in Denmark and one in Netherlands; it starts to be significant (0.6%) in terms of the onshore power, 2000 MW in Europe.In the world the onshore installed wind power is exceeding 4000 MW, but not so much up to now has been done on the offshore area outside Europe.The European four years experience on the prototypical offshore wind farms looks significantly promising and suggests to promote a similar approach in many densely populated coastal countries in the world with high electricity demand.Results of studies are presented on the offshore wind potential in the European countries and of the tentative evaluation for the Mediterranean basin, and the seas of USA and China. A review is made of the offshore applications, particularly for the Nothern European seas.Economy and environmental trends are illustrated in parallel to those of maturing offshore technology. It is suggested to prepare an action plan to promote the development of the offshore applications in the world context.