食品中微生物危害定量风险评估综述

近年来食品安全事件频发,给消费者带来了健康风险,也扰乱了国家经济秩序。在我国,由于食品中微生物危害导致的食品安全问题在总数中占很大比重。微生物危害的定量风险评估,能够帮助政府和企业增强风险管理能力,预防和控制微生物危害,从而提高整体食品安全水平。本文对当前国内外食品中微生物危害的定量风险评估技术的研究现状进行了综述,对现存的问题及未来的发展趋势进行了分析。     

老龄化债券在累积和分配阶段的固定缴款养老金中的作用（英）

近年来，老龄化风险在金融数学和金融工程领域引起了人们极大的关注．为了对冲老龄化风险，老龄化债券在金融市场上应运而生．为了研究老龄化债券是否能有效地对冲固定缴款养老金账户所面临的老龄化风险，本文分别对累积阶段和分配阶段的固定缴款养老金进行了随机最优管理问题的研究．在两个阶段中，最优控制的目标都是通过对金融市场上老龄化债券、零息票债券和无风险资产的投资来最大化终端财富值的期望效用．应用动态规划原理并通过解相应的 HJB 方程，本文分别得到了两个阶段的最优投资策略的显式表达．在合理的假设前提下，结果表明无论是在累积阶段还是在分配阶段，对老龄化债券的投资都有利于提高投资效果，并最终得到更高的财富值的期望效用．     

Risk management framework for outsourcing in the defence sector: a case from India

A nation automatically becomes strong if it has self-sufficiency to fulfil its defence requirements. India is moving in the direction to attain self-reliance in the defence sector. The aim of this paper is to analyse the critical issues faced in outsourcing by an organisation in Indian Defence Sector and extend easy, quick, complete and practically implementable risk mitigation strategies for enabling better decision-making. In this research, a list of 20 risk criteria is finalised on the basis of the literature survey and expert’s opinion. Analysis in this research shows that, three criteria which can seriously affect the outsourcing are Material shortage risk, Quality Risk and On-time delivery risk. The paper employs an integrated framework which includes ‘Grey Theory, Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Risk Management Matrices’ for a comprehensive risk management in the defence sector. The paper delivers a 10-point risk management action plan to counter the various problems faced during outsourcing in the defence sector, especially in the Indian context. In brief, this paper investigates the various important issues related to outsourcing, which are faced by organisations working in Indian Defence Sector and extends a practically implementable methodology to derive a practically amicable solution for the case organisation.     

中国城市气溶胶危害评价

在环境受到污染的领域,气溶胶对人们生活和人体健康有重要影响。随着城市大气气溶胶污染日趋严重,对中国城市气溶胶危害进行评价十分必要,以便加以控制。本文对如下问题进行了讨论：气溶胶危害评价的领域和问题;空气污染与呼吸道疾病;中国城市空气悬浮颗粒总数（ＴＳＰ）和疾病,评价我国气溶胶对健康的作用;中国城市空气悬浮颗粒总数的主要化学组分,评价其卫生学作用;从卫生保健的角度进行小结和建议。     

城市排水系统的现代观

在当今水环境劣化趋势日益严峻,水资源日益短缺的势态下,在污水深度处理、超深度处理和回收利用已经实用化了的今日,排水系统不应仅仅是排除雨水、污水及保护城市环境和公共水域水质的基础设施,更应升华为维系城市健康水循环和良好水环境,实现水资源可持续利用的人类社会的生命线工程。城市污水作为可贵的淡水资源已为世人所瞩目。文章阐述了在排水系统功能、规划和设计方面的新构想和新观念。     

美国产品质量安全风险监控体系及其对我国的启示

本文以美国产品质量安全风险监控工作体系为研究对象,比较了中美两国在产品质量安全风险监控管理工作思路的差异,分析了我国产品质量安全风险监控面临的问题和差距,剖析了我国在产品质量安全风险监控工作上的不足,并立足现阶段我国产品质量监管的基本情况,对完善我国产品质量风险监控工作体系提出了建议和意见.     

A combined fuzzy DEMATEL and cloud model approach for risk assessment in process industries to improve system reliability

Decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) analysis is an effective and comprehensive method for identifying accident factors and converting the relationships among them into a visual structural model. Traditionally, the mean value method is adopted to summarize the initial direct-relation matrix, but it ignores the errors caused by differences in expert knowledge. In addition, a single qualitative risk assessment may not be sufficiently comprehensive and persuasive. The qualitative risk assessment results may not play a complete role in helping industrial plants carry out safety management. Therefore, this study proposes a quantitative risk assessment model based on the cloud model (CM) called the fuzzy DEMATEL-CM. An assessment index model is established by identifying the hazards associated with a converter steelmaking system. Subsequently, fuzzy DEMATEL analysis is applied to determine the relationships among the assessment indices and calculate their weights. Then, the CM is utilized to calculate the risk levels of the assessment indices and determine the comprehensive risk level. Finally, a case study is introduced to verify the practicability and validity of this model, and it is observed that the model has a certain superiority in solving uncertain problems. The quantitative risk assessment results are helpful for preventing accidents to improve the reliability of converter steelmaking plants.     

The Research on Subject Behavioral Risk of Whole Life-cycle Water Conservation Projects

In 2011, water conservation projects construction in China entered a stage of rapid growth. In February 2013 three dam safety accidents occurred due to improper participant subject behaviors. Improving security and risk management of water conservation projects is therefore considered as imminent. It is urgent to research the risks of the participant subject behaviors. This article takes each participating subject in the whole life-cycle of water conservation projects as the research object, analyzes the risk behaviors and risk evolution processes, dissects the cause of the risks of the participating subject behaviors on the basis of the theory of risk effect, and puts forward that reinforcing the penalties, improving criminal cost and strengthening the engineering ethics education is an effective way to solve safety problems of the current projects.     

Budget allocation in coping with supply chain disruption risks

Disruption management, as an important research topic, has attracted scholars’ broad attention in recent years due to the increasing exposure of disruption risks in supply chains. To date, researches in this field often focus on either prevention or mitigation measures and the budget allocation problem is paid relatively little attention. This paper therefore proposes an approach to determine the optimal budget allocation based on prevention measures in combination with mitigation measures. First, considering different disruption situations, the bow-tie is applied to developing the disruption management frameworks that integrate risk prevention and risk mitigation. Second, the corresponding optimization models are formulated to determine the optimal budget allocation plans. In order to validate the proposed approach, we compare the computation results with those obtained from the prevention approach and the mitigation approach. Also, random experiments are conducted to analyse the impacts of randomly generated disruption and response scenarios. Finally, a real-life case is provided to testify the usefulness and merits of our proposed approach. The results show that the proposed approach can help decision-makers reduce more loss caused by the disruption risks.     

拆除爆破工程安全管理的特点与对应措施

总结了拆除爆破工程安全管理的特点,指出爆破拆除工程的安全管理应有风险意识,给出了爆破拆除项目风险管理的方法,提出了爆破拆除工程实施过程中应注意的安全问题.     

安全标准中应用风险管理的探讨

本文比较了风险管理在我国和发达国家安全标准中的应用情况;对安全风险管理的理念和传统安全管理的理念进行了对比分析,论述和介绍了目前在国际上被普遍接受的安全风险管理基本思想和ALARP准则,提出了风险管理应作为一种成熟的科学方法在我国安全标准中普遍应用的论点。     

基于本质安全的工业事故风险管理方法研究

从风险管理角度对生产过程中的安全防护方法进行了分类和论述,提出了基于本质安全思想的工业 事故综合风险管理方法与程序,其核心内容是在常规的危险辨识和风险评价基础上,优先应用本质安全原理来 减少、消除危险,综合采用无源安全措施、有源安全措施或多层安全防护措施与功能安全标准,将风险降低至 可接受水平;提出了本质安全应与清洁生产、绿色化学、循环经济同等纳入优先发展的技术和政策等建议。     

Research on the ecological compensation standard of the basin pollution control project based on evolutionary game theory and by taking Xiangjiang River as a case

Ecological compensation is a new resource and environment management model. As one of the main areas for implementing ecological compensation policies, basin ecological compensation has become an important measure for encouraging basin pollution control projects and improving the quality of regional economic development. By applying the basic game analysis of evolutionary game theory and building an evolutionary game model with a “reward–punishment” mechanism, this paper compares the interest-related decision-making behaviors of the upstream and downstream stakeholders of basin ecological compensation. By using data on the water quality of Xiangjiang River Basin, this paper calculates the rewards and penalties in different intervals by building a parametric regression mathematical model and employing the local linear regression method. Results show that a decline in water quality should be fined RMB 925500 yuan, an improvement in water quality should be awarded RMB 1227800 yuan, and a deteriorating water quality should be severely fined RMB 5087600 yuan.     

A review of the use of environmental offset as a policy mechanism in the environmental impact assessment process (EIA) in Western Australia

This paper reviews the use of offsets in the Western Australian (WA) environmental impact assessment (EIA) process. First, an overview and analysis of offsets as a policy tool in EIA is provided, noting that it has its origins in the practice of ecological restoration and uses the principle of the no net loss (NNL). Second, the implementation of WA offset policy is discussed noting the emergence of two new types of offsets in response to the uncertainty associated with some major resource projects. The first type is a ‘residual risk’ offset, which is provided in recognition of the uncertain risks associated with the proposal. The second type is a ‘banked’ offset, which is called upon only in the event that negative environmental impacts occur. Finally, it is proposed that these ‘offsets for uncertainty’ could be used more broadly in EIA where there is significant uncertainty of impacts provided the residual risk is considered acceptable.     

Entropy-based model for the ripple effect: managing environmental risks in supply chains

Due to increasing diversity and growing size of modern industrial supply chains, today problems of identification, assessment and mitigation of disruption risks become challenging goals of the supply chain risk management. In this paper, we focus on environmental (ecological) risks in supply chains which represent threats of adverse effects on living organisms, facilities and environment by effluents, emissions, wastes, resource depletion, etc. arising due to supply chain’s activities. Harmful environmental disruptions may ripple through the supply chain components like a wave. The paper presents the entropy-based optimisation model for reducing the supply chain model size and assessing the economic loss caused by the environmental risks subject to the ripple effect. A main advantage of the suggested entropy-based approach is that it permits to essentially simplify the hierarchical tree-like model of the supply chain, at the same time retaining the basic knowledge about main risk sources.     

单增李斯特菌生态行为模型构建及机制研究进展

目的 探究食品中的单增李斯特菌随食品链相关条件的变化而发生的"生长-失活-再生长"生态行为规律.方法 以热加工为失活条件,综述单增李斯特菌生态行为的影响因素、模型构建和相关机制.结果 单增李斯特菌在"生长-失活"过程中,细胞的历史生长条件会对其失活特性产生影响,在"失活-再生长"过程中,细胞的历史生理状态会影响其修复再生长的延滞期.结论 食品链中细菌的生长和失活是连续的过程,有必要研究在连续的环境条件变化过程中细胞的生态行为,以期为食品风险评估和食品安全防控提供支持.     

生态文明建设与能源生产消费革命

能源是人类活动的物质基础,推动了人类文明的演进与社会的发展。化石能源消费为全球带来工业文明巨大进步的同时,也带来了环境问题加剧、气候变化显著、能源贫困突出、能源安全问题凸显等负面影响。我国以煤为主的高碳能源结构和能源消费总量持续快速增长,已成为国内包括大气、水、土壤等关系民生的重大领域环境质量恶化、生态失衡的根本原因之一。开启新的能源革命,实现能源生产、流通、消费等全过程的绿色低碳化,是解决环境和气候变化问题的关键,也是推动我国由工业文明向生态文明转变的基础。本文回顾了人类文明与能源革命的发展历史,从推动文明发展的角度出发,分析全球能源革命的总体趋势,并基于我国国情,提出了生态文明建设背景下,推动能源革命的途径与建议。     

Potential for Riverbank filtration in India

Riverbank filtration (RBF) has been used for many decades in Europe and the United States to provide drinking water to communities located on riverbanks. In India, the development of RBF has the potential to provide drinking water to many cities located on the Ganga Plains currently using surface water as a source for their public water supply. Water diversion for irrigation and discharge of wastewater to rivers with extremely low flows has aggravated the water supply situation for many Indian cities using surface water. A number of Indian cities, with source waters of significantly varying quality, are already using RBF. In most of these cities no significant additional treatment is provided to the filtrate for their water supply. The objective of this article is to examine selected operating bank filtration sites in India (that have been investigated since 2005) and to elucidate additional potential RBF sites based on water problems and hydrogeologic suitability. A summary of selected operational RBF systems in Ahmedabad, Delhi, Haridwar, Mathura, Medinipur and Kharagpur, Nainital, Patna and Srinagar and their ability to produce potable water is provided. Analysis of the suitability of RBF for Allahabad, Bhubaneswar, Guwahati, and Vijayawada, based on hydrogeology and land use, is also provided.     

场平工程深孔爆破安全监理

安全在爆破工程中具有十分重要的地位,如何加强爆破实施过程中的安全监理工作,已引起社会各界的普遍重视。本文分析、总结了场平工程深孔爆破安全监理的实践经验,重点介绍了安全监理的主要内容,并对其中遇到的问题进行了探讨。为爆破工程安全监理制度的建立与完善积累了经验,同时也可供同类工程实施安全监理参考。     

借鉴美国经验提升我国儿童服装质量安全监管效能

儿童服装是各国政府质量监管的重点产品。作为消费品质量安全的领先国家,美国通过贯彻“风险管理”理念,形成了包括数据采集和分析、风险研判、分类监管的儿童服装产品监管机制。本文通过分析美国儿童服装产品质量安全监管机制,为我国提升监管效能,完善质量社会共治,提出具体的对策建议。