A two-period model for selection of resilient multi-tier supply portfolio

A two-period decision-making model is developed for selection of resilient supply portfolio in a multi-tier supply chain under disruption risks. The planning horizon is divided into two aggregate periods: before and after the disruption. The resilience of the supply chain is achieved by selection ahead of time primary supply portfolio and by pre-positioning of risk mitigation inventory of parts at different tiers that will hedge against all disruption scenarios. Simultaneously, recovery and transshipment portfolios are determined for each disruption scenario and decisions on usage the pre-positioned inventory are made to minimise expected cost or maximise expected service level. Some properties of optimal solutions, derived from the proposed model provide additional managerial insights. The findings also indicate that the developed portfolio approach with an embedded network flow structure leads to computationally efficient stochastic mixed integer program with a strong LP relaxation.     

Two-period vs. multi-period model for supply chain disruption management

A novel two-period modelling approach is developed for supply chain disruption mitigation and recovery and compared with a multi-period approach. For the two-period model, planning horizon is divided into two aggregate periods: before disruption and after disruption. The corresponding mitigation and recovery decisions are: (1) primary supply and demand portfolios and production before a disruption, and (2) recovery supply, transshipment and demand portfolios and production after the disruption. In the multi-period model, a multi-period planning horizon is applied to account for a detailed timing of supplies and production. The primary and recovery portfolios are determined simultaneously and for both approaches the integrated decision-making, stochastic mixed integer programming models are developed. While the simplified two-period setting may overestimate (for best-case capacity constraints) or underestimate (for worst-case capacity constraints) the available production capacity, it can be easily applied in practice for a fast, rough-cut evaluation of disruption mitigation and recovery policy. The findings indicate that for both two- and multi-period setting, the developed multi-portfolio approach leads to computationally efficient mixed integer programming models with an embedded network flow structure resulting in a very strong linear programming relaxation.     

A hybrid risks-informed approach for the selection of supplier portfolio

In conventional supplier selection approaches, cost consideration is usually emphasised and it renders a vulnerable supply chain with various risks. This article aims to develop a quantitative approach for modelling both supply chain operational risks and disruption risks to support decision-making with regard to order allocation and risk mitigation. We introduce two types of risk evaluation models: value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). Specifically, VaR is used to measure operational risks caused by improper selection and operations of a supplier portfolio to the stochastic demand, which may frequently occur but result in relatively small losses to supply chains; CVaR is used to evaluate disruption risks that are less frequent and tend to cause significant damage. After incorporating risk factors into a probability-based multi-criteria optimisation model, different methods and parameters are compared and tested to determine the factors that may influence the supplier selection process. Computational examples by simulation are presented to illustrate the approach and how decision-makers make trade-offs between costs and hybrid risks.     

供应中断风险下供应链恢复能力投资决策及协调

摘要： 〖HTSS〗为了减缓供应商生产运营中断对制造商带来的供应中断风险,制造商需要在突发事件前优化供应链恢复能力投资水平。引入CVaR来刻画供应链在突发事件下的应急目标,建立了一定置信水平控制下的供应链恢复能力投资的决策模型,进而揭示了制造商风险规避程度对供应链最优恢复能力投资水平的影响。分权供应链下,制造商运用基于绩效的契约来激励供应商投资合适的恢复能力,以协调供应链。结论表明,CVaR可以恰当描述供应链恢复的能力投资行为,当风险规避程度越高,供应链最优恢复能力投资越多;当单位中断时间的惩罚系数的条件期望值等于单位中断时间的商誉成本的条件期望值时,供应链进入协调状态。     

A four-phase AHP–QFD approach for supplier assessment: a sustainability perspective

Recently, companies have become increasingly aware of the need to evaluate suppliers from a sustainability perspective. Introducing the triple bottom line (economic, social, and environmental performance) into supplier assessment and selection decisions embeds a new set of trade-offs, complicating the decision-making process. Although many tools have been developed to help purchasing managers make more effective decisions, decision support tools, and methodologies which integrate sustainability (triple bottom line) into supplier assessment and selection are still sparse in the literature. Moreover, most approaches have not taken into consideration the impact of business objectives and requirements of company stakeholders on the supplier evaluation criteria. To help advance this area of research and further integrate sustainability into the supplier selection modelling area, we develop an integrated analytical approach, combining Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Quality Function Deployment (QFD), to enable the ‘voice’ of company stakeholders in the process. Drawing on the sustainable purchasing strategy development process, our AHP–QFD approach comprises four hierarchical phases: linking customer requirements with the company's sustainability strategy, determining the sustainable purchasing competitive priority, developing sustainable supplier assessment criteria, and lastly assessing the suppliers. An illustrative example is provided to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach.     

Supplier selection under risk of delivery failure: a decision-support model considering managers’ risk sensitivity

This paper studies the problem of supplier selection and order allocation in a retail supply chain (comprising suppliers, a central purchasing unit and outlets) under disruption risk. The final demand is deterministic. Suppliers are located in different geographic areas, and supplies are subject to a positive probability of disruption. Different capacity and failure probabilities for each supplier are considered. Our analysis focuses on the insurance versus profitability trade-off faced by a supply manager who buys from suppliers for the outlets. Instead of determining optimal decisions given an objective function and the risk sensitivity of the decision-maker, we use a mixed integer linear programming approach to provide decision-making support that shows a supply manager the ‘elasticity of (expected) losses versus (expected) profits’. Under this model, and depending on the profit-and-loss targets, a supply manager of known risk sensitivity (i.e. risk aversion and loss aversion) can make better decisions when choosing suppliers. Moreover, taking into account, the impact of the share of fixed costs that must be covered by the operation, we consider the net values of expected profit and loss. We discuss the potential influence of the level of the firm’s fixed costs on the supply strategy. In particular, we show how the minimum value of the gross margin needed for the strategy’s profitability affects that strategy. A numerical application is conducted to illustrate the contribution of our decision-making support mechanism, and several managerial insights are obtained.     

Supply chain resilience for single and multiple sourcing in the presence of disruption risks

This paper investigates the use of sourcing strategies to achieve supply chain resilience under disruptions. The coping strategies considered are single and multiple sourcing, backup supplier contracts, spot purchasing, and collaboration and visibility. Collaboration and visibility, which affect suppliers’ recovery capabilities and a buyer’s warning capability, have not been similarly modelled in the past. A scenario-based mathematical model is developed such that it considers objectives under uncertainties including disruption risks and operational risks. A broad numerical study examines its output for various risk attitudes in a decision-maker, ranging from risk neutral to risk averse. The sensitivity of procurement strategies to other key parameters such as recovery and warning capabilities is examined. One of the major findings is that buyer’s warning capability plays a vital role in enhancing supply chain resilience. We seek to build on these efforts to further support disruption planning and mitigation and to obtain a deeper understanding of the relationship between supply chain characteristics and resilience.     

Integrated supply chain risk management via operational methods and financial instruments

Supply chain risk management (SCRM) is an emerging field that generally lacks integrative approaches across different disciplines. This study contributes to narrowing this gap by developing an integrated approach to SCRM using operational methods and financial instruments. We study a supply chain composed of an aluminium can supplier, a brewery and a distributor. The supply chain is exposed to aluminium price fluctuation and beer demand uncertainty. A stochastic optimisation model is developed for managing operational and financial risks along the supply chain. Using this model as a base, we compare the performance of an integrated risk management model (under which operational and financial risk management decisions are made simultaneously) to a sequential model (under which the financial risk management decisions are made after the operational risk management decisions are finalised). Through simulation-based optimisation and using experimental designs and statistical analyses, we analyse the performance of the two models in minimising the expected total opportunity cost of the supply chain. We examine the supply chain performance as a function of three factors, each at three levels: risk aversion, demand variability and aluminium price volatility. We find that the integrated model outperforms the sequential model in most but not in all cases. Furthermore, while the results indicate that the supply chain improves its performance by being less risk averse, there exists a threshold beyond which accepting a higher risk level is not justified. Managerial insights are provided for various business scenarios experimented with.     

Multiple-objective analysis of integrated relief supply and network restoration in humanitarian logistics operations

While logistics research recently has placed increased focus on disruption management, few studies have examined the response and recovery phases in post-disaster operations. We present a multiple objective, integrated network optimisation model for making strategic decisions in the supply distribution and network restoration phases of humanitarian logistics operations. Our model provides an equity-based solution for constrained capacity, budget and resource problems in post-disaster logistics management. We conduct designed experiments for this NP-hard problem to analyse important aspects of the integrated problem for both small- and large-sized networks: full vs. partial restoration and pooled vs. separate budgeting approach. Finally, we apply the model to a Hazus-generated regional case study based on an earthquake scenario and generate efficient Pareto frontiers to understand the trade-off between the objectives of interest.     

Developing a resilient supply chain through supplier flexibility and reliability assessment

In this study, we examine the optimal allocation of demand across a set of suppliers in a supply chain that is exposed to supply risk and environmental risk. A two-stage mixed-integer programming model is used to develop a flexible sourcing strategy under disruptions. Our model integrates supplier selection and demand allocation with transportation channel selection and provides contingency plans to mitigate the negative impacts of disruptions and minimise total network costs. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the model and provide insights. The findings suggest that developing contingency plans using flexibility in suppliers’ production capacity is an effective strategy for firms to mitigate the severity of disruptions. We also show that flexibility and reliability of the suppliers and regions play a significant role in determining contingency plans for during disruption. Findings generally show that highly flexible suppliers receive less allocation, and their flexible capacity is reserved for disruptions. For firms that do not incorporate risk management into supplier selection and allocation, the recommendation is to source from fewer, more reliable suppliers with less risk of disruption. Our findings also emphasise that the type of disruption has important implications for supplier selection and demand allocation. This study highlights the supply chain risk management strategy of regionalising as a means for minimising the impact of environmental disruptions.     

Procurement decisions and information sharing under multi-tier disruption risk in a supply chain

We consider a manufacturer's procurement decision in a three-tier supply chain (SC) under disruption risk. The manufacturer sources components from a single first-tier supplier (FT). The FT, in turn, sources raw materials from a single second-tier supplier (ST). Suppliers in both tiers are unreliable, i.e. prone to disruption risk. Increasing SC visibility through information sharing is a potential disruption management strategy for the manufacturer. While the manufacturer can obtain disruption risk information for the FT, disruption risk information for the ST is not easily accessible to the manufacturer except through the FT, who may not be willing to share ST information. We study different mechanisms under which the manufacturer can obtain ST information, and its impact on manufacturer's and FT's decisions and potential profits. We show that information sharing makes the manufacturer's procurement decisions more conservative, i.e. carrying more inventories, but the FT's procurement decision is contingent on the ST's reliability; more proactive (conservative) when ST is unreliable (reliable), i.e. carrying less (more) inventories. We demonstrate that there are two ways to induce the FT to share its information, and numerically show that their effectiveness is contingent on multiple factors, including FT and ST reliabilities and information sharing costs.     

回购契约下应对突发事件的供应链协调策略

在基本回购契约模型基础上,分析了回购契约下实现供应链协调的条件,并针对突发事件造成零售商面临的需求分布变化时供应链协调被打破的问题,提出了具有抗突发事件性的回购契约。这个契约主要将增加的供应商成本考虑进回购价格,使得供应商新增加的成本能够在供应商和零售商之间分配,从而使新的回购契约实现对突发事件的协调应对。应用一个算例对比加以说明。     

Bayesian belief network-based framework for sourcing risk analysis during supplier selection

Increasing trend in global business integration and movement of material around the world has caused supply chain system susceptible to disruption involving higher risks. This paper presents a methodology for supplier selection in a global sourcing environment by considering multiple cost and risk factors. Failure modes and effects analysis technique from reliability engineering field and Bayesian belief networks are used to quantify the risk posed by each factor. The probability and the cost of each risk are then incorporated into a decision tree model to compute the total expected costs for each supply option. The supplier selection decision is made based on the total purchasing costs including both deterministic costs (such as product and transportation costs) and the risk-associated costs. The proposed approach is demonstrated using an example of a US-based Chemical distributor. This framework provides a visual tool for supply chain managers to see how cost and risks are distributed across the different alternatives. Lastly, managers can calculate expected value of perfect information to avoid a certain risk.     

On the risk-averse optimization of service level in a supply chain under disruption risks

The worst-case optimization of service level in the presence of supply chain disruption risks is considered for the two different service levels measures: the expected worst-case demand fulfillment rate and the expected worst-case order fulfillment rate. The optimization problem is formulated as a joint selection of suppliers and stochastic scheduling of customer orders under random disruptions of supplies. The suppliers are located in different geographic regions and the supplies are subject to random local and regional disruptions. The obtained combinatorial stochastic optimization problem is formulated as a mixed integer program with conditional service-at-risk as a worst-case service level measure. The risk-averse solutions that optimize the worst-case performance of a supply chain are compared for the two service level measures. In addition, to demonstrate the impact on the cost in the process of optimizing the worst-case service level, a joint optimization of expected cost and conditional service-at-risk using a weighted-sum approach is considered and illustrated with numerical examples. The findings indicate that the worst-case order fulfillment rate shows a higher service performance than the worst-case demand fulfillment rate. Maximization of the expected worst-case fraction of fulfilled customer orders better mitigates the impact of disruption risks. The supply portfolio is more diversified and the expected worst-case fraction of fulfilled orders is greater for most confidence levels. Finally, the results clearly show that worst-case service level is in opposition to cost.     

Structural-aware simulation analysis of supply chain resilience

Supply chain resilience (SCRES) refers to the ability of a supply chain (SC) to both resist disruptions and recover its operational capability after disruptions. This paper presents a simulation model that includes network structural properties in the analysis of SCRES. This simulation model extends an existing graph model to consider operational behaviours in order to capture disruption-recovery dynamics. Through structural analysis of a supply chain network (SCN), mitigation strategies are designed to build redundancy, while contingency strategies are developed to prioritise recovery of the affected SCN. SCRES indexes are proposed by sampling SC performance measures of disruption for each plant and aggregating the measures based on the criticality of the plants in the SCN. The applicability of this simulation model is demonstrated in a real-world case study of different disruption scenarios. The application of mitigation and contingency strategies is shown to both improve recovery and reduce the total costs associated with disruptions. Through such simulation-based analysis, firms can gain insight into the SCRES of their existing SCNs and identify suitable strategies to improve SCRES by considering recovery time and costs.     

Flexible strategies under supply disruption: the interplay between contingent sourcing and responsive pricing

Due to possible supply disruptions because of a low-cost unreliable supplier, a firm may use a high-cost reliable supplier as an additional regular supplier (dual sourcing) or an emergency backup supplier with an extra emergency cost (contingent sourcing). We consider the firm's sourcing problem when the pricing decision is made before any supply uncertainty is resolved (committed pricing) or after the supply state is realised (responsive pricing). By comparing the relative value of responsive pricing in contingent sourcing to that in dual sourcing, we study the relationship between contingent sourcing and responsive pricing in mitigating supply disruption risks. We show that the emergency cost and potential lost sales caused by disruption probability jointly impact the interplay of these two strategies. More specifically, when the emergency cost is low and the potential lost sales are lower under contingent sourcing than that under dual sourcing, contingent sourcing and responsive pricing are substitutes; otherwise, they are complements. Furthermore, we examine how disrupted capacity, i.e. the quantity that the unreliable supplier can deliver when disrupted, impacts the interplay, and find that the probability of the substitution relationship becomes higher when the disrupted capacity increases. We also find that under committed pricing, contingent sourcing is not optimal for any value of disruption probability when the emergency cost is high, a phenomenon that does not exist under responsive pricing.     

Supplier selection based on supply chain ecosystem,performance and risk criteria

A supply chain ecosystem consists of the elements of the supply chain and the entities that influence the goods, information and financial flows through the supply chain. These influences come through government regulations, human, financial and natural resources, logistics infrastructure and management, etc., and thus affect the supply chain performance. Similarly, all the ecosystem elements also contribute to the risk. The aim of this paper is to identify both performances-based and risk-based decision criteria, which are important and critical to the supply chain. A two step approach using fuzzy AHP and fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution has been proposed for multi-criteria decision-making and illustrated using a numerical example. The first step does the selection without considering risks and then in the next step suppliers are ranked according to their risk profiles. Later, the two ranks are consolidated into one. In subsequent section, the method is also extended for multi-tier supplier selection. In short, we are presenting a method for the design of a resilient supply chain, in this paper.     

Strategic cooperation with a backup supplier for the mitigation of supply disruptions

We study optimal sourcing decisions for a firm with a dedicated supplier and a backup supplier. The dedicated supplier charges a lower wholesale price but faces a potential disruption risk. The backup supplier is assumed to be perfectly reliable but charges a higher wholesale price. The primary question we address is how the firm should cooperate with the backup supplier to hedge against the disruption risk. We consider three common cooperation options: advance purchase, reservation and contingency purchase. Our basic results show that the firm should choose advance purchase strategy if the disruption probability is high, while contingency purchase strategy benefits the firm more if the disruption probability is low. Under an intermediate disruption probability, the firm should choose reservation strategy only if the reservation fee is sufficiently low. Then, we explore the optimal backup strategy under partial disruption risk. The results show that the advance purchase and the reservation strategy should be adopted more widely when the dedicated supplier guarantees a relatively high yield rate after disruption.     

An enhanced possibilistic programming approach for reliable closed-loop supply chain network design

Most of current logistics network design models in the literature typically assume that facilities are always available and absolutely reliable while in practice, they are always subject to several operational and disruption risks. This paper proposes a reliable closed-loop supply chain network design model, which accounts for both partial and complete facility disruptions as well as the uncertainty in the critical input data. The proposed model is of mixed integer possibilistic linear programming type that aims to minimise simultaneously the total cost of opening new facilities and the expected cost of disruption scenarios. An enhanced possibilistic programming approach is proposed to deal with the epistemic uncertainty in input data. Furthermore, the p-robustness criterion is used to limit the cost of disruption scenarios and protect the designed network against random facility disruptions. Several numerical experiments along with sensitivity analyses on uncertain parameters are conducted to illustrate the significance and applicability of the developed model as well as the effectiveness of the proposed solution approach. Our results demonstrate that operational and disruption risks considerably affect the whole structure of the designed network and they must be taken into account when designing a reliable closed-loop logistics network.     

Optimal production and inventory decisions under demand and production disruptions

Unanticipated events may take place and disrupt demand and/or production in a supply chain. Conditional on the type, magnitude and duration of disruptions, changes may be called to revise the original production plan. We analyse different disruption scenarios and propose optimal production–inventory models for products facing demand and production disruptions. To lower the cost, we optimise the production run time, purchasing times and order quantity for the manufacturer. Numerical experiments are conducted to examine the influences of disruption time and magnitude on optimal production and purchasing decisions.